从美国住房抵押贷款二级市场看我国住房抵押贷款证券化的发展

一、美国的住房抵押贷款二级市场 1.美国住房抵押贷款二级市场的发展 美国住房抵押贷款二级市场的发展一直遵循着防范风险这样的一条规律,包括风险的降低与分散.在住房抵押贷款市场上,金融机构主要面临着违约风险、流动性风险、利率风险与提前还款风险,从美国住房抵押贷款二级市场的发展过程中可以看到其对以上几种风险的化解意图,住房抵押贷款证券的产生及证券品种的创新都起到了降低与分散风险的作用.     

住房抵押贷款制度的比较分析

通过对发达国家的住房抵押贷款制度进行比较，总结出各种制度的优点。结合我国实际情况，提出了适合我国住房抵押贷款体系发展的措施。     

美国、英国、日本住房抵押贷款证券化的比较及启示

美国、英国、日本这三个国家的住房抵押贷款证券化比较具有典型性。本拟通过对这三国住房抵押贷款证券化的比较分析，以期对我国住房抵押贷款证券化在政府支持、法制环境建设、工具创新、特设载体构建、机构投资培育及模式选择等方面，获得一些有益的启示。     

论我国个人住房抵押贷款担保体系的构建

个人住房抵押贷款担保的主要功能是为借款人申请高比例的个人住房抵押贷款提供信用支持,即降低购房借款人的首付款比例。在我国个人住房抵押贷款担保体系的建设过程中,政府应当发挥主导作用,适时建立政策性个人住房抵押贷款担保机构,为广大中低收入者申请高比例的个人住房抵押贷款提供担保,以保障其基本的居住需求。此外,政府还可根据住房市场发展的客观需要,鼓励、引导和扶持商业性个人住房抵押贷款担保的发展。     

美国次级住房抵押贷款及证券化探析

本文主要介绍了美国次级抵押贷款市场、及次级抵押贷款的证券化产品—住房抵押贷款支持证券(MBS)及担保债务权证(CDO)。美国房地产抵押贷款市场分为三类:优级贷款市场、次优级贷款市场及次级贷款市场。同时美国住房抵押贷款市场分为一级市场和二级市场。一级市场为住房抵押贷款发放市场,二级市场为住房抵押贷款证券化市场。住房抵押贷款发放机构为了回收流动性,将住房抵押贷款出售给房利美和房地美和其他一些金融机构。这些金融机构将住房抵押贷款打包发行MBS。以次级住房抵押贷款为基础发行的MBS又连同其他资产被重新打包,发行CDO。本文还就次级住房抵押贷款证券化过程中存在的问题作了分析。     

住房抵押贷款与反抵押贷款的异同评析

反抵押贷款作为一种新兴的金融工具,是将住房通过金融保险的手段引入养老保障领域,来解决老年人养老问题的一重要举措。自美国于上世纪八十年代推出以来,目前正受到极大重视。研究反抵押贷款与普通抵押贷款的差异,对两者的异同组织多方面的评析,对反抵押贷款在我国开办的适用性组织前瞻性的研究等应当是非常必要的。     

美国次级住房抵押贷款危机对中国经济的影响与启示

美国次级住房抵押贷款危机是美国房地产泡沫的结果。2001年至2005年美国房地产市场获得空前发展。市场繁荣时期宽松的贷款条件和创新的贷款类型助长了房地产市场的投机和投资,积累了不堪承受的风险,逐渐形成了房地产市场的泡沫,随着房地产市场价格的下跌和利率的上升,次级抵押贷款市场的违约率上升,终于爆发了次级抵押贷款危机。这次危机给美国经济带来了一定影响,同时波及世界金融市场和股票市场。它对我国经济的影响不大,但是对我国经济发展的启示却极其深刻。     

个人住房抵押贷款的市场风险研究

提出了个人住房抵押贷款市场风险的概念，阐述了市场风险的表现及特点，从理论上分析了市场风险的形成机理，井通过香港的实例，实证分析了房地产市场波动对个人房贷的影响。     

对住房抵押贷款证券化业务的探索

从国民收入分配结构与住房制度改革的发展趋势来看,个人住房贷款将成为银行极具市场发展潜力的业务品种,也是今后房地产金融业务发展的重点。在美国、香港等市场经济发达的国家和地区,个人住房抵押贷款一般占银行贷款总额的20％～40％。而在找国,即使是开办个人住房抵押贷款规模最大、市场业务份额最高的中国建设银行,这项业务余额只占房地产贷款余额的10％左右,不到全行贷款额的2％．发展空间相当广阔。     

中美新股发行市场差异比较——成熟股市与新兴股市IPO之差别比较

摘自董登新搜狐博客2010年1～8月,在美国主板NYSE和创业板NASDAQ,共有108家公司申请新股发行,但最终只有87只新股成功发行并挂牌上市,另有21只新股至今尚未发行,其中,3只新股＂撤销发行＂,18只新股＂暂缓发行＂。在此,本文仅就发行成功并挂牌上市的87只新股展开分析。     

The market for private student loans: an analysis of credit union exposure,risk, and returns

Beginning in 2011, credit unions in the United States have been required to report in their quarterly call reports their holdings of private student loans. Since this time, private student loans have been the fastest growing loan product among credit unions. The empirical results here indicate credit unions respond to external market forces and internal exposure to interest rate risk in their decision to hold private student loans. The effect of which, to date, has led to lower returns on their assets and no effect on overall risk. Credit unions looking to diversify their loan portfolio should do so with caution. Private student loans being in deferral reduce both delinquency and charge-off rates, which will rise over time with their seasoning and as interest rates rise.     

Announcement effects of convertible bond loans and warrant-bond loans: An empirical analysis for the Dutch market

This study investigates the announcement effects of offerings of convertible bond loans and warrant-bond loans using data for the Dutch market. The event study analysis shows that announcement effects of convertible bonds are associated with positive but insignificant abnormal returns and that announcements of warrant-bonds are associated with significant positive abnormal returns. These findings are similar to the results for Japanese hybrid debt, as reported by Kang et al. (1995) (Kang, J.K., Kim, Y.C., Park, K.J., Stulz, R.M., 1995. Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, pp. 257–270) and Kang and Stulz (1996) (Kang, J.K., Stulz, R.M., 1996. Review of Financial Studies, pp. 109–139), but they contrast with studies for the United States that generally find significant negative abnormal returns for convertible bond loans and insignificant negative abnormal returns for warrant-bond loans. Our results cannot be attributed to differences in the corporate governance structures of the Netherlands and the United States. We find that the positive abnormal returns for the warrant-bond loans are caused by the packaging of the announcements with other (good) firm-specific news.     

Effects of subsidized home loans on housing decisions and efficiency in Japan: Tradeoff between quality and quantity

First, we will present a microeconomic model of Japanese housing demand based on the Japanese home financing system. The focus of the model will be on the tradeoff between housing quality and quantity. We will derive the owner-occupied housing user cost of capital for several different subsamples. The unique feature of the model is the use of nonlinear budget constraints. Next, we will try reduced form estimation based on a composite housing demand model and a characteristic housing demand model. Estimation results indicate that those who do not receive funds from the JHCL are more price-elastic and more income-elastic for composite housing demand and floor demand. Recipients of JHLC funds have more price-elastic demand for quality as they compensate for institutional constraints on their selection of floor space. Finally, we will estimate the effect on housing demand if JHLC loan interest rates are not classified by the size of a house but are adjusted to the private loan rate and if the JHLC lends funds based on the market value of the house. We will also calculate the excess burden for each household created by the present JHLC home financing policy. Households distort their housing consumption by overconsuming quantity and underconsuming quality.     

亚行贷款改善越南与中国的铁路连接

亚洲开发银行将提供6000万美元贷款,帮助恢复越南首都河内北郊与中国边境地区安全高效的铁路连接.该项目旨在提高越南部分全国性铁路线(重要的次区域连接线路)的运输流量,促进可持续增长及中越两国的贸易联系.该铁路全长285公里,连接河内的安原与老街省的边境地区,承担了越南海防港与中国云南省之间大部分的国内与区域性运输任务.由于该段铁路大部分建于1910年之前,加上养护投入较少,现在已经破旧不堪.     

The financial reporting of fair value based on managerial inputs versus market inputs: evidence from mortgage servicing rights

This research examines whether the fair value of mortgage servicing rights (MSRs) based on managerial inputs (Level 3) better reflects the cash flow and risk characteristics of the underlying assets than the fair value of MSRs based on market inputs (Level 2). Using mortgage servicing fees as a proxy for the underlying cash flows, we find that the valuation multiples for MSRs based on Level 3 inputs are more positively associated with the persistence of future servicing fees compared with the fair value of MSRs based on Level 2 inputs. We also document that only the valuation multiples based on Level 3 fair values are negatively associated with proxies for risk factors. Our results suggest that, although unobservable inputs are subject to managerial discretions, managers can generate higher quality fair value estimates than market inputs due to their information advantage, especially when the market for the underlying asset is inactive.     

The ins and outs of mortgage debt during the housing boom and bust

From 1999 to 2013, U.S. mortgage debt doubled before contracting sharply. I estimate mortgage inflows and outflows that shed light on the sources of volatility. During the boom, inflows from real estate investors tripled, far outpacing other segments such as first-time homebuyers. During the bust, a collapse in inflows keyed the debt decline, while an expansion of outflows due to defaults played a more minor role. Inflow declines partly reflect a dramatic falloff in first-time homebuying, especially for low credit score individuals. Further analysis helps support the notion that the differential decline by credit score reflects markedly tightened credit supply.     

基于谱分析的中美利率波动周期比较

论文以1954年7月1日以来美国联邦基金利率及2006年10月8日以来上海银行间同业拆借利率隔夜品种为观察对象,运用谱分析方法研究中美两国利率的周期特征及周期波动的位相关系。单谱分析结果显示,美国联邦基金利率存在着20年左右、8年～11年、2～4年的周期特征。以本文的观察角度,两国利率均存在2年、1年半、1年左右及半年左右的周期特性,有相似的周期特征。交叉谱分析表明,美国联邦基金市场与上海银行间同业拆借市场的波动互有领先。     

Forecasting state- and MSA-level housing returns of the US: The role of mortgage default risks

We analyze the ability of an index of mortgage default risks (MDRI) for 43 states and 20 metropolitan statistical areas (MSA) of the US derived from Google search queries, in predicting (in- and out-of-sample) housing returns of the corresponding states and MSAs, based on various panel data and time-series approaches. In general, our results tend to prefer the panel data model based on common correlated effects estimation. We highlight that growth in MDRI negatively impacts housing returns within-sample, with predictive gains primarily concentrated beyond a year. These results are robust to alternative out-of-sample periods and econometric frameworks. Given the role of house prices as a leading indicators, our results are of value to policymakers, especially at the longer-run.     

Anticipating critical transitions of the housing market: new evidence from China

We introduce a novel quantitative methodology to detect real estate bubbles and forecast their critical end time, which we apply to the housing markets of China's metropolises. Building on the Log-Periodic Power Law Singularity (LPPLS) model of self-reinforcing feedback loops, we use the quantile regression calibration approach recently introduced by two of us to build confidence intervals and explore possible distinct scenarios. We propose to consolidate the quantile regressions into the arithmetic average of the quantile-based LPPLS Confidence indicator, which accounts for the robustness of the calibration with respect to bootstrapped residuals. We make three main contributions to the literature of real estate bubbles. First, we verify the validity of the arithmetic average of the quantile-based LPPLS Confidence indicator by studying the critical times of historical housing price bubbles in the U.S., Hong Kong, U.K. and Canada. Second, the LPPLS detection methods are applied to provide early warning signals of the housing markets in some metropolises in China. Third, we determine the possible turning points of the markets in Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen, Guangzhou, Tianjin and Chengdu and anticipate critical transitions of China's housing markets via our multi-scales and multi-quantiles analyses. Finally, given these projections performed in February 2017, the price trajectories from March 2017 to January 2018 that became available from the time of submission to the time of revision of the present article offer quite unique genuine out-of-sample tests of the performances of our indicators.