产业结构调整中金融发展的作用与定位

产业结构的调整和优化是区域经济发展的重要内容,金融的发展能促进结构优化。同样地,金融抑制会阻碍结构的变迁和变化,两者具有显著的相关关系。本文通过投入产出表,生产函数和比较分析说明金融抑制是产业结构调整的重要障碍,因而在政策选择上,区域经济的发展应结合金融发展动态地促进结构的优化,实现两者的良性循环。     

A NOTE ON THE PROPERTY RIGHTS THEORY AND THE EX ANTE VALUE OF INFORMATION

This paper examines the ex ante value of information in the property rights model where the possibility exists that an investing agent can be provided with relevant information before investments are undertaken. When contracts are incomplete, from an ex ante perspective, informing the investing agent does not necessarily increase the expected surplus resulting from a relationship between two economic agents. The paper highlights the fact that the second‐best nature of the problem that arises from contractual incompleteness can ensure this.     

VALUE OF INFORMATION IN COMPETITIVE ECONOMIES WITH INCOMPLETE MARKETS

We study the value of public information in competitive economies with incomplete markets. We show that generically the welfare effect of a change in the information available prior to trading can be in any direction: There exist changes in information that make all agents better off and changes for which all agents are worse off. In contrast, for any change in information, a Pareto improvement is feasible, that is, attainable by a planner facing the same informational and asset market constraints as agents. In this sense, the response of competitive markets to changes in information is typically not socially optimal.     

信贷约束与农户非正规金融选择

本文考察来自正规金融机构的信贷约束对农户选择非正规金融的影响。基于农户调研,本文首先辨别农户受到的各种信贷约束,并将其与农户融资成本相结合,构建农户融资的理论模型。实证研究采用双变量Probit模型比较各种信贷约束对选择非正规金融的影响。研究发现：供给型和需求型信贷约束都显著地促进农户选择非正规金融。需求型信贷约束中,风险约束较大程度地促进农户通过非正规金融渠道融资。研究结论对制定农村金融政策将提供重要参考。     

景观基因视角的湖南省古村镇文化特质及其保护价值

湖南历史悠久,拥有独具地方特色的"湖湘文化"。古村镇是"湖湘文化"的重要载体,具有深厚的文化内涵及重大的科学、经济价值。选取30个已经公布的国家或湖南省历史文化名村名镇为研究对象,以景观基因的理念为切入点,立足古村镇的抽象文化符号和物质景观元素,分析湖南省古村镇景观基因的特点;并通过对其上述文化特质的把握,提出湖南省古村镇的保护价值。     

区域经济中物流与知识流的价值关系

物流与知识流是影响和推动区域经济发展最为重要的因素.通过阐述物流与知识流的互动关系和价值最优化,建立了基于物流与知识流的区域经济价值模型及区域能级模型.通过改变和优化物流与知识流的结构及价值关系,采取相应的物流与知识流发展策略,可以实现区域经济体的价值最优化,并达到提升区域能级的目的.     

ON THE ROLE OF THE GROWTH OPTIMAL PORTFOLIO IN FINANCE

The paper discusses various roles that the growth optimal portfolio (GOP) plays in finance. For the case of a continuous market we show how the GOP can be interpreted as a fundamental building block in financial market modeling, portfolio optimisation, contingent claim pricing and risk measurement. On the basis of a portfolio selection theorem, optimal portfolios are derived. These allocate funds into the GOP and the savings account. A risk aversion coefficient is introduced, controlling the amount invested in the savings account, which allows to characterize portfolio strategies that maximise expected utilities. Natural conditions are formulated under which the GOP appears as the market portfolio. A derivation of the intertemporal capital asset pricing model is given without relying on Markovianity, equilibrium arguments or utility functions. Fair contingent claim pricing, with the GOP as numeraire portfolio, is shown to generalise risk neutral and actuarial pricing. Finally, the GOP is described in various ways as the best performing portfolio.     

中国世界遗产的价值转变和传播理念的引出

随着人类对世界遗产理解的不断深入和中国参与世界遗产项目的不断增多,中国对世界遗产的价值理念和利用模式也开始经历着发展思路的转变。通过对世界遗产历史发展的回顾,世界遗产相关重要文献的研读以及国内外世界遗产发展现状趋势的对比总结,提出五个转变思路,即从高贵到朴素的转变,从专业到大众的转变,从经济到教育的转变、从静态到动态的转变和从保护到传承的转变。这些转变带来世界遗产传播概念的呼之欲出,在对遗产传播概念进行初始界定的基础上,基于传播学的基本理论,从传播内容、传播通道和传播效果三个方面界定了世界遗产传播系统。     

香港的用地分类与规划控制

香港的用地分类采用广义的概括用途方法,主要依据使用性质,同时兼顾经营方式、土地供给方式、投资主体及规划影响等因素。在地区层面采用了一套以规划管理单元为核心的直接面向规划管理实际需要的土地用途地带控制方法,以利于综合解决地区层面的交通、环境等规划问题。分析了香港用地分类的依据、主要内容和规划控制方法,进一步探讨了用地分类和规划控制之间的关系,总结了香港经验给我们的借鉴和启示。     

重庆都市旅游的文化价值和文化包装

在重庆市旅游业发展的空间结构和定位结构中,都市旅游被定位为重庆旅游的中心。而都市旅游的灵魂是文化。要发展重庆的都市旅游业,必须充分认识和挖掘重庆的文化价值,培育有较高文化含量的旅游产品。重庆的文化价值主要体现在历史文化、人文山水文化和现代都市文化三个方面。在发展重庆都市旅游时应对文化遗产进行现代化包装,开发“巴渝文化”、“抗战陪都文化”、“都市风貌”这三大品牌,突出景区主题,注重旅游的观赏性、趣味性和知识性,发展参与性强的旅游项目。     

所有权和控制权分离对企业价值的影响-我国民营上市企业的实证研究

该文考察了我国民营上市企业所有权、控制权以及二者的分离对企业的影响.我们发现,民营上市企业的最终控制人大多采用金字塔方式从而以用较少的投资控制较多的股份.与所有权和控制权分离情况严重的东亚地区的其他9个国家和地区相比,我国民营上市企业的两权分离更大.两权的分离造成了企业价值的下降.我们的结论指出,民营企业的所有权和控制权应该尽量保持相若,且应避免所有者和管理者合一这一经营管理方式.     

我国金融“脱实向虚”的综合判断与分析*

本文界定了金融“脱实向虚”的内涵,设计了研判金融“脱实向虚”的挂钩变量和标准。本文以1990—2019年78个国家为样本的实证研究显示：2012年我国金融出现“脱实向虚”,2012—2014年处于低度“脱实向虚”状态,2015—2018年出现了中度“脱实向虚”,2019年又回落到低度“脱实向虚”,但未来5年金融杠杆会回升。这意味着未来经济运行仍将面临高杠杆带来的系统性金融风险,以及金融杠杆波动性不断加剧给经济增长带来更大的负面冲击。宏观调控的政策取向和首要任务仍是“降杠杆”和“稳增长”。针对该形势,本文提出：一是亟须建立金融“脱实向虚”的审慎监管机制,将金融杠杆作为金融“脱实向虚”的审慎监管政策工具,将均衡金融杠杆作为研判金融“脱实向虚”的标准,前瞻性地引导金融回归服务实体经济的本位职能。二是改革现有存款基准利率的“双轨制”,实施货币政策“锁短放长”的创新性操作来消除导致金融“脱实向虚”的政策诱因。     

东北区域网络利用水平现状、原因及其对策

基于SOHU．COM网站提供的中国区域网站建设的基础数据,文章描述了东北网站建设现状,分析了网络利用水平较低的主要原因——信息基础设施落后、财政紧张和软环境落后,在此基础上,提出了一些建议和对策。     

VALUE OF IMPROVED LONG-RANGE WEATHER INFORMATION

An important human welfare implication of climate involves effects of interannual variation in temperature and precipitation on agriculture. Year-to-year variations in U.S. climate result from El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), a quasi-periodic redistribution of heat and momentum in the tropical Pacific Ocean. The study described here represents a preliminary assessment of the value to the entire U.S. agricultural sector of improved ENSO forecasts in the southeastern United States. This interdisciplinary assessment combines data and models from meteorology, plant sciences, and economics under a value of information framework based on Bayesian decision theory. An economic model of the U.S. agricultural sector uses changes in yields for various ENSO phases to translate physical (yield) effects of ENSO changes into economic effects on producers and on domestic and foreign consumers. The value of perfect information to agriculture is approximately $145 million. The economic value of an imperfect forecast is $96 million. These results suggest that increases in forecast accuracy have substantial economic value to agriculture.     

湖北省大型湖泊水库旅游资源开发利用价值评价

在对湖北省大型湖泊水库（下称大型湖库）定量和定性分析基础上,设立了 ８ 个评价项目,并将评价项目按重要性分成三类,采用项目分级与加权评分相结合的要素综合评价方法,计算出各大型湖库的分值,然后以各湖库所得总分值为依据,综合评价出湖北省大型湖泊水库的最终等级。最后对等级不同的湖泊和水库,作了如何发挥人的主观能动性,充分利用旅游资源优势,有效改变主要障碍因子的若干建议     

OPTIMAL DEBT AND ENDOGENOUS GROWTH IN MODELS OF INTERNATIONAL FINANCE

The International Monetary Fund, the World Bank and the bond rating agencies did not anticipate the crises in Asia 1997–98 and in Argentina 2001 . With this statement in mind, we consider some multi-stage inter-temporal stochastic optimisation models in international finance that imply theoretically founded and empirically measurable Early Warning Signals. The mathematical technique is dynamic programming/stochastic optimal control (DP/SOC).
The variables of interest are the optimal foreign debt, consumption, capital and the growth rate of GDP. They are used as benchmarks of economic performance. By comparing the actual debt to the optimal debt we derive a measure of the sustainability of the debt and vulnerability to default problems. The two sources of uncertainty – the productivity of capital and the real interest rate on the foreign debt – are modeled as stochastic processes. Specific applications of the DP/SOC techniques are given for country defaults in Asia and Latin America, and the US current account deficits.     

UNIVERSALISM AND THE VALUE OF POLITICAL POWER

Although legislatures typically use majority rule to allocate a budget in distributive legislation, unanimous consent over the broad allocation of benefits is pervasive. I develop a game‐theoretic model where members strategically interact in a universal coalition to determine allocations, with noncooperative bargaining as a threat point for the breakdown of cooperation. To quantify the effects of political power on the agreed‐upon allocation, I structurally estimate the model using the “Bridge Bill Capital Budget” in 1992. I find that 16.73% of the budget would be allocated differently if allocations were determined only based on actual needs.