品牌的经济学分析:一个比较静态模型

现有的经济学理论和模型中缺少全面针对品牌的分析,导致品牌理论与实践的双重混乱.在选择爆炸式增长的经济条件下,品牌对消费者的选择行为产生了巨大影响,因此对品牌选择的经济学分析显得更为迫切.品牌的经济学本质是降低消费者的选择成本,进而影响消费者对品牌的选择,而消费者选择又决定了厂商的销售量和利润.我们在经济学的框架下,以品牌为研究对象,建立起一个比较静态模型,对品牌进行经济学分析,得出消费者均衡和厂商均衡的条件.     

Stochastic Volatility: Likelihood Inference and Comparison with ARCH Models

In this paper, Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling methods are exploited to provide a unified, practical likelihood-based framework for the analysis of stochastic volatility models. A highly effective method is developed that samples all the unobserved volatilities at once using an approximating offset mixture model, followed by an importance reweighting procedure. This approach is compared with several alternative methods using real data. The paper also develops simulation-based methods for filtering, likelihood evaluation and model failure diagnostics. The issue of model choice using non-nested likelihood ratios and Bayes factors is also investigated. These methods are used to compare the fit of stochastic volatility and GARCH models. All the procedures are illustrated in detail.     

Real-sector parameter instability and the optimal choice of monetary policy

In this paper we consider the effects of uncertainty upon the optimum choice of monetary policy instrument. Specifically we extend the work of Poole (1970), and others, to allow for the existence of multiplicative as well as additive stochastic coefficients in the structural equations of the standard IS-LM macroeconomic model. We demonstrate that the commonly accepted notion that money-stock control is superior to interest-rate control when the IS schedule is stochastic is not always valid.     

品牌进入次序优势的经济解释

作者利用品牌经济学理论和其“选择成本范式”的分析框架研究品牌进入次序的优势及其产生的原因。通过对一个简单模型的分析表明,“趋利避害”的消费者的选择行为将给第一个进入市场的品牌以持久的优势,原因在于该品牌降低了消费者选择行为的局限条件—选择成本,而后进入市场的品牌,由于转换成本的存在,将使其选择成本高于先进入市场的品牌,从而使其处于劣势的地位,因此后进入市场品牌的品类模仿成功的可能性大大降低。     

品牌形象结构维度与品牌选择心理机制——主要基于京津冀经济圈的调查数据

对所采集到的423个样本数据进行了探索性因子分析和验证性因子分析.基于符号学理论构建了一个新的品牌形象结构模型,并揭示了该模型三大结构维度所蕴含的消费心理机制.研究结果既有助于对品牌形象进行动态监测,也有助于对品牌价值进行纵向与横向比较.根据符号学理论,既有品牌形象结构模型存在两个问题:一是将品牌所具有的功能与产品所具有的功能相混同;二是将品牌的能指与品牌的所指相混同.在对所采集到的423份样本数据进行探索性因子分析与验证性因子分析结果的基础上,建构了一个新的品牌形象结构模型,该模型由诚信度、名望度和物有所值度三个维度构成,进一步揭示了这三个维度所各自对应的品牌选择心理机制,即风险规避机制、名望映射机制和价值计算机制.     

A HYBRID DISCRETE CHOICE MODEL OF DIFFERENTIATED PRODUCT DEMAND WITH AN APPLICATION TO PERSONAL COMPUTERS

In this article, I consider a new discrete choice model of differentiated product demand that distinguishes a brand‐level differentiation from a product‐level differentiation. The model is a hybrid of the random coefficient logit model of Berry et al. (Econometrica 63 (1995), 841–90) and the pure characteristics model of Berry and Pakes (International Economic Review 48 (2007), 1193–1225) and describes markets where firms offer multiple products of different qualities under the same brand name. I compare the hybrid model with existing models using data on personal computers. Using the estimates of the hybrid model, I also provide empirical evidence that firms reposition their brands in a postmerger market.     

消费者选择理论的重构——品牌与数量选择的两步法经济分析

传统经济学中的消费者选择理论中的效用函数只考虑了商品数量对效用的影响，而在品牌时代，随着可供选择的多样化，消费者在选择数量之前必然首先对品牌做出选择。因此可分两步来构建消费者选择理论：第一步是研究品牌与选择行为，消费者依据约束条件下选择成本最小化原则进行品牌选择；第二步是数量与选择行为，消费者依据约束条件下的效用最大化原则进行数量选择。将这两方面结合起来，可以重新构建品牌时代较为完整的消费者选择理论。     

A note on the optimal choice of monetary and fiscal policy

This paper studies the instrument-target problem associated with a simple macroeconomic model with conditions of uncertainty. The purpose of the paper is to demonstrate that if a model is linear with nonstochastic coefficients and with additive disturbances and if the policy objective is to maximize the expected value of the quadratic loss function, then it is the choice of endogenous variables that alters the expected loss value. This contrasts with the findings of Poole, Sargent, Turnovsky, et al., in which the expected losses are compared for different instruments while endogenous variables are changed at the same time. Thus, if basic model specifications are unchanged, an important cause for different expected losses under different policy instruments is seen to lie in the choice of endogenous variables.     

品牌战略与分销网络的哲学思辩

改革开放以来,市场营销学、品牌学随着市场经济的逐步深入,从西方传到中国,并伴随着本土经济人文的独特需要有了一定的发展.但十多年来,我国本土对这些学科的理论研究十分薄弱,更多的是一些注解和体会.而事实上,中国的市场营销与品牌发展有其独特的脉搏与规律,并且要深入地揭示其发展趋势,必须从哲学的高度进行提炼.以哲学的视角提炼品牌的基本元素,界定其基本概念,探讨了品牌的主体、客体、结构和本质,特别提出了品牌是由品牌的核心价值组成核心层,品牌的社会属性构成中间层,品牌识别、品牌个性、品牌利益、品牌形象与品牌文化构成品牌的形式层的三元品牌结构说,使当今流行于各学科的基本的品牌认识成果都在三元结构里找到逻辑归宿和准确定位.     

多品牌战略内在机制的经济分析

笔者运用品牌经济学理论,引入品类相似系数构建了单一品牌战略机制模型,证明了实施单一品牌战略的厂商增加品类数量会提高市场需求量及利润。但由于选择成本的存在,厂商不会无限地增加品类数量,无限地增加品类数量将会受到选择成本的制约。在此基础上,笔者提出了通过多品牌战略来解决单一品牌厂商市场需求量增长限制的问题,并论证了在品类对立条件下实施多品牌战略才是可行的。笔者通过品类相似程度和品牌战略指标构建了多品牌战略实施二维模型,提出了厂商实施单一品牌和多品牌战略的条件及相应的对策建议。     

Evolution in games with randomly disturbed payoffs

We consider a simple model of stochastic evolution in population games. In our model, each agent occasionally receives opportunities to update his choice of strategy. When such an opportunity arises, the agent selects a strategy that is currently optimal, but only after his payoffs have been randomly perturbed. We prove that the resulting evolutionary process converges to approximate Nash equilibrium in both the medium run and the long run in three general classes of population games: stable games, potential games, and supermodular games. We conclude by contrasting the evolutionary process studied here with stochastic fictitious play.     

Mergers, brand competition, and the price of a pint

Mergers in the UK brewing industry have reduced the number of national brewers from six to four. The number of brands, in contrast, has remained relatively constant. We analyze the effects of mergers on brand competition and pricing. Brand-level demand equations are estimated from a panel of draft beers. To model brand-substitution possibilities, we estimate the matrix of cross-price elasticities semiparametrically. Our structural model is used to assess the strength of brand competition along various dimensions and to evaluate the mergers. In particular, we compute equilibria of pricing games with different numbers of players.     

Marketing an upgrade to a system: compatibility choice as a price discrimination device

This paper analyzes the different ways in which an innovator can market an upgrade for a basic system when the market for this system is mature and there are two different technological platforms: the innovator’s and a rival’s. Different compatibility choices result in different product lines and yield varying price discrimination opportunities. The paper studies what are the limits to the enforcement of these opportunities and concludes by showing what is the profit maximizing product line choice when consumers are brand loyal. This choice depends on the initial market share of the innovator and on the enhancement of quality that the upgrade provides.     

Population dynamics and utilitarian criteria in the Lucas–Uzawa Model

This paper introduces population growth in the Uzawa–Lucas model, analyzing the implications of the choice of the welfare criterion on the model's outcome. Traditional growth theory assumes population growth to be exponential, but this is not a realistic assumption (see Brida and Accinelli, 2007). We model exogenous population change by a generic function of population size. We show that a unique non-trivial equilibrium exists and the economy converges towards it along a saddle path, independently of population dynamics. What is affected by the type of population dynamics is the dimension of the stable manifold, which can be one or two, and when the equilibrium is reached, which can happen in finite time or asymptotically. Moreover, we show that the choice of the utilitarian criterion will be irrelevant on the equilibrium of the model, if the steady state growth rate of population is null, as in the case of logistic population growth. Then, we show that a closed-form solution for the transitional dynamics of the economy (both in the case population dynamics is deterministic and stochastic) can be found for a certain parameter restriction.     

土地价格和享乐评价方法

本文介绍了享乐价格理论的基本模型及享乐价格函数的估计（包括自变量的选择、自变量和因变量资料的收集及函数形式的选择）,结合我国的具体情况,讨论了享乐方法的应用可能性。为了进一步明确享乐方法应用条件,讨论了享乐方法应用的前提假设,最后,作者认为享乐方法可以成为城市地价评估的手段之一。     

THE IDENTIFICATION AND ECONOMIC CONTENT OF ORDERED CHOICE MODELS WITH STOCHASTIC THRESHOLDS*

This article extends the widely used ordered choice model by introducing stochastic thresholds and interval‐specific outcomes. The model can be interpreted as a generalization of the GAFT (MPH) framework for discrete duration data that jointly models durations and outcomes associated with different stopping times. We establish conditions for nonparametric identification. We interpret the ordered choice model as a special case of a general discrete choice model and as a special case of a dynamic discrete choice model.     

服务品牌与服务质量的耦合机理研究

基于对发达国家和地区服务品牌的比较分析,以服务业为样本,结合服务品牌与服务质量的耦合关系,建立相关概念模型和假设并进行实证检验得出,服务品牌成长始于品牌愿景并依赖于内部系统化的运营,提升服务质量有助于落实服务品牌承诺。     

基于FUZZY-AHP的高科技品牌延伸决策评价研究

通过对国内高科技品牌延伸实践和国内外品牌延伸评价理论的深入分析,指出高科技品牌延伸决策评价研究的不足。针对品牌延伸评价的复杂性特点,将模糊层次评价的方法应用到高科技品牌延伸决策评价研究中,采用层次分析法确定了评价指标体系中各指标的权重,并以海尔品牌延伸到药业为研究对象,采用模糊评价法对评价模型进行了实证分析。 ?     

Pigouvian pricing and stochastic evolutionary implementation

We study the implementation of efficient behavior in settings with externalities. A planner would like to ensure that a group of agents make socially optimal choices, but he only has limited information about the agents’ preferences, and can only distinguish individual agents through the actions they choose. We describe the agents’ behavior using a stochastic evolutionary model, assuming that their choice probabilities are given by the logit choice rule. We prove that there is a simple price scheme with the following property: regardless of the realization of preferences, a group of agents subjected to the price scheme will spend the vast majority of time in the long run behaving efficiently. The price scheme defines a game that may possess multiple equilibria, but we are able to obtain a unique and efficient selection from this set because of the stochastic nature of the agents’ choice rule. We conclude by comparing the performance of our price scheme with that of VCG mechanisms.     

消费者行为与产品替代的概率选择模型-北京冰箱市场的一个经验分析

该文提供了一个运用离散选择模型进行需求及行业分析的实例.该文在一个三层次嵌套 LOGIT 模型的框架中,将消费者的购买过程假定为首先在国产品牌和外国品牌之间,然后在大、中、小冰箱之间,最后在不同的品牌之间进行选择.通过对消费者选择概率的加权平均,我们预测了每种冰箱的市场份额,计算出它们之间的半价格弹性,并借此分析了北京市冰箱市场上的价格竞争特点.所有的经验结果都充分反映了消费者特征和产品特征对市场需求的影响.