中国货币政策工具选择研究

本文在普勒规则研究的基础上进行适当扩展,对我国货币政策工具选择问题展开研究。通过研究本文发现:第一,货币政策工具的选择,与经济体所承受的冲击主要来自商品需求层面还是货币需求层面、货币需求主要来自商品市场还是货币市场以及总需求相对名义利率水平的弹性系数相关,而与社会福利损失函数中通货膨胀的厌恶系数、商品市场供给层面的诸变量(包括商品市场供给层面的冲击、商品供给曲线的斜率等)无关;第二,当经济体的所受冲击主要来自商品需求层面、市场货币需求主要来自商品市场、且货币政策对总需求的调节作用效果较小时,则货币当局采用数量型货币政策工具更有利于维护公众的社会福利;反之,则价格型货币政策操作更有利于维护公众的社会福利。     

当前我国货币供给内外生性辨析及政策启示

清晰认识当前货币供给的内生性与外生性有利于货币当局把脉货币政策的有效性和可控性,有助于制定正确的货币政策,确定金融体制改革的取向。作者结合我国银行业现实的货币供给状况,构造符合转轨时期现实国情的理论模型,找出影响货币供给的诸因素,然后分析它们为央行所控制的程度,得出我国货币供给目前内生性较明显的结论,并且就内生性下如何提高央行货币调控能力提出了建设性建议。     

资本市场、货币市场互动与我国的货币政策选择

资本市场与货币市场之间相互影响,两个市场之间的影响机理包括货币与证券两种资产间的联接效应、非对称信息对称化效应和价格联接效应等三种效应。资本市场会通过影响货币供给流向、货币供给数量、货币政策传导机制以及货币政策工具等四个方面对货币政策产生影响。货币市场也会通过利率、通货膨胀率、股票价值以及各种金融工具等影响资本市场。资本市场与货币市场在相互制约和影响中实现动态均衡是宏观经济的预期,但这种预期目前还远远没有达成,原因在于金融市场上的诸多问题:货币市场与资本市场在法规、管理体制、经营机制、组织上的分割以及两个市场自身的缺陷。所以拓宽两个市场的融合渠道、建立高效的货币市场和完善货币政策运作体系是我国的货币政策选择。     

有限理性、资产价格波动与泰勒规则

针对泰勒规则所存在的多重共线性、潜在产出无法精确计量和忽视资产价格等问题,本文基于有限理性假设和纳入货币供给因素对泰勒规则进行了修正。利用修正后的泰勒规则对我国经济数据进行实证研究发现。我国存在相对稳定的利率规则,并且这种利率规则在高通胀和低通胀阶段的形式有一定区别。在将货币因素纳入泰勒规则后,发现我国的利率规则并没有明显的变化,但是中央银行在操作利率时还是应高度关注货币供应量和信贷总量．以防止资产价格的大起大落。     

中国货币供应量内生性研究

中国央行选择通过控制货币供应量来实现其货币政策目标,然而控制货币供应量的前提是:货币供给具有外生性,能够被中央银行所独立决定。如果货币供给是内生的,那么中央银行对货币供给的主动控制将毫无意义。本文在介绍外生货币供给理论和内生货币供给理论发展的基础上,探讨中国当前货币供应量的内生性问题,并试图以此来解释当前中国央行难以完全控制货币供应量,从而也难以真正实现其货币政策目标。     

中国货币供应量内生性研究

中国央行选择通过控制货币供应量来实现其货币政策目标,然而控制货币供应量的前提是:货币供给具有外生性,能够被中央银行所独立决定。如果货币供给是内生的,那么中央银行对货币供给的主动控制将毫无意义。本文在介绍外生货币供给理论和内生货币供给理论发展的基础上,探讨中国当前货币供应量的内生性问题,并试图以此来解释当前中国央行难以完全控制货币供应量,从而也难以真正实现其货币政策目标。     

从货币供给结构看市场资金量变化

货币供给由基础货币、存款、外汇储备、信贷量几大要素构成,这些因素的变化直接导致市场流动性的变化,而整体流动性又与市场资金量息息相关,是股市波动的基本面因素。文章通过采用因素分析法,从货币供给结构看市场资金量的变化,考察政策面趋势及资金面趋势。     

开放经济条件下我国货币内生性问题研究

1994年以来,基础货币投放中外汇占款所占比例越来越高,我国货币供给表现出很强的内生性。本文把货币内生性放在开放经济的框架下进行研究,在对货币内生性基本原理进行阐述的基础上,对强制结售汇与盯住汇率制度组合下我国货币供给的内生性问题进行探讨,分析了货币内生性对我国货币政策的影响,在此基础上就如何应对挑战、提高货币政策有效性提出了政策建议。     

开放经济条件下我国货币内生性问题研究

1994年以来,基础货币投放中外汇占款所占比例越来越高,我国货币供给表现出很强的内生性。本文把货币内生性放在开放经济的框架下进行研究,在对货币内生性基本原理进行阐述的基础上,对强制结售汇与盯住汇率制度组合下我国货币供给的内生性问题进行探讨,分析了货币内生性对我国货币政策的影响,在此基础上就如何应对挑战、提高货币政策有效性提出了政策建议。     

对我国超额货币供给影响机制的思考

货币的长期中性使货币供应量过多，这只能造成物价水平的上升。然而，我国长期以来存在超额货币供给的同时，却保持了经济的通胀性增长。我国20世纪90年代以来货币流通速度下降是阻止超额货币供给导致通货膨胀的重要原因。我国居民储蓄意愿强烈，现期消费减少，其所持货币进入资本市场的量增加；银行“惜贷”；在金融改革深化中货币化进程受阻，这些因素导致货币流通速度减慢。     

Debt and Taxes and Uncertainty

With a graduated personal tax schedule, Miller showed that there could be an equilibrium debt supply for the corporate sector as a whole. In the presence of uncertainty there is also a unique debt/equity ratio for each individual firm, and this ratio is related to the firm's operational risk characteristics. However, if firms merge and spin off in response to tax incentives, the identity of firms is ambiguous and only the corporate sector is a meaningful construct. These arguments are developed in both discrete and continuous models that employ extensions of the arbitrage-free pricing theory.     

教育与资本怎样的前景怎样的现实

来自政府的声音: "动员各种社会资源,发展教育" 此次论坛上财政部长助理张少春的发言是最受关注的发言之一.他的演讲传达出的信息有这样几方面:第一,谈到现实,他认为全社会对教育的巨大需求与我国公共投入不足已成为我国教育事业发展的突出矛盾.近年来,以公共部门投入为主,多渠道筹措教育经费的教育投入机制成为解决这一问题的重要途径,也使得公共部门与私营部门在教育领域的合作日益密切.第二,谈到前景,他认为,1.中国经济持续、快速的增长对高技能人才产生巨大的需求,这为私营部门的参与提供了广阔空间.2.随着公共财政职能的不断完善,财政资金将在各项教育事业中重新进行分配,进一步优化财政支出结构,提高资金的使用效率.在"十一五"期间,我国将把公共支出的重点转移到农村.我们将逐步把全体农村适龄儿童的义务教育全部纳入公共财政体制.     

Director gender and mergers and acquisitions

Does director gender influence CEO empire building? Does it affect the bid premium paid for target firms? Less overconfident female directors less overestimate merger gains. As a result, firms with female directors are less likely to make acquisitions and if they do, pay lower bid premia. Using acquisition bids by S&P 1500 companies during 1997–2009 we find that each additional female director is associated with 7.6% fewer bids, and each additional female director on a bidder board reduces the bid premium paid by 15.4%. Our findings support the notion that female directors help create shareholder value through their influence on acquisition decisions. We also discuss other possible interpretations of our findings.     

Political corruption and mergers and acquisitions

This research examines the relation between political corruption and mergers and acquisitions (M&As). We find that local corruption increases firm acquisitiveness but decreases firm targetiveness. The levels of corruption in acquirer areas relate positively to the bid premiums and negatively to the likelihood of deal completion. Corruption motivates acquiring firms to use excess cash for payment, which mitigates the negative effect of corruption on acquirer shareholder value. The evidence indicates that acquisitions help acquiring firms convert cash into hard-to-extract assets and relocate assets from the high to low corruption areas, thereby shielding their liquid assets from expropriation by local officials.     

Trust and cross-border mergers and acquisitions

A number of studies suggest that social trust matters for investment. Using different measures of trust from World Values Survey, we show that countries where people display higher levels of trust engage in more cross-border M&A activities. When they do, these acquirers pay lower premiums. To the extent that these acquirers also tend to engage in larger acquisitions as well, our findings suggest that a larger selection pool of potential targets and higher value targets enable these acquirers to negotiate for lower premiums. We do not find evidence of the significant effect for target country trust levels. Hence, trust may benefit those acquiring firms in cross-border transactions.     

Tournament-based incentives and mergers and acquisitions

This research examines the relation between tournament-based incentives, which are proxied by the difference between a firm's CEO pay and the median pay of the senior managers, and mergers and acquisitions (M&As). We find that tournament-based incentives are positively related to firm acquisitiveness and acquiring firms' stock and operating performance. Further analysis indicates that positive acquisition performance increases the likelihood of the CEO being promoted from inside the acquiring firm. Our evidence is consistent with the view that tournament-based incentives motivate acquiring firms' managers to make greater efforts and take more risk that result in superior acquisition performance.     

Corporate Innovations and Mergers and Acquisitions

Using a large and unique patent‐merger data set over the period 1984 to 2006, we show that companies with large patent portfolios and low R&D expenses are acquirers, while companies with high R&D expenses and slow growth in patent output are targets. Further, technological overlap between firm pairs has a positive effect on transaction incidence, and this effect is reduced for firm pairs that overlap in product markets. We also show that acquirers with prior technological linkage to their target firms produce more patents afterwards. We conclude that synergies obtained from combining innovation capabilities are important drivers of acquisitions.     

East and west and north and south : A preliminary model

The Brandt report and other proposals for a new North-South world order continue to be the focus of lively debate, yet it is often argued that little concrete has emerged from their recommendations. A major reason for this, the author argues, is that the East-West conflict component is not sufficiently taken into consideration-East-West tensions are a severe constraint on and a determining factor of North-South relations. Using influence diagrams, the author develops a flexible framework for discussion and assessment of N/S-E/W relations.