谈财政政策的"挤进效应"和"挤出效应"

财政政策作为宏观调控的重要杠杠之一近年来受到人们关注。由于传统的经济学教材对财政政策“挤出效应”理论的大范围普及，客观上形成了人们对财政政策“挤进效应”理论一定程度上的忽视。有鉴于此，本文对财政政策的这两大效应理论作出了对比分析和论证，探讨了二者不同的形成机理，指出当前我国应当创造有利条件发挥好财政政策“挤进效应”的功能，同时，应尽可能避免财政政策“挤出效应”给宏观经济造成的负面影响。     

贸易自由化对我国环境污染的影响分析

本文的目的是研究贸易自由化对我国环境污染的影响。通过建立贸易与环境污染关系的一般均衡理论模型，合理选择数据，将贸易自由化对我国环境污染的规模效应、组成效应和技术效应进行了定量分析。回归结果显示，规模效应将加剧我国的环境污染水平，而组成效应和技术效应将降低我国的环境污染程度，贸易自由化将有利于我国的环境保护。     

院士寄语

王占国 半导体材料和材料物理学家。 长期从事半导体材料和材料物理研究。其中，人造卫星用硅太阳电池辐照效应和电子材料、器件和组件的静态、动态和核瞬态辐照实验结果，     

论科技园区的簇群效应

面对科技园区的优势与问题，从“簇群”的观点来考察是有重要现实意义的。科技园区与簇群有着内在的联系，科技园区能产生“吸纳效应”、“互补效应”、“创新效应”和“竞争效应”等簇群效应，从而对科技园区的生存与发展起重大作用。我们应当关注科技园区的“簇群”现象，并对它进行广泛而深入的研究。     

政府资助企业研发活动的效果评估

R＆D活动的“正溢出效应”将导致企业研发投入低于社会最优水平，政府向企业提供研发资助，在一定程度上弥补了企业R＆D活动的“市场失灵”，然而有可能对企业的研发投资产生替代效应。该文通过理论模型解释了政府研发资助对企业的激励机理，并且界定了政府研发资助互补效应和替代效应的条件，从宏观、产业和企业三个层次分析了政府研发资助的效果。     

组织韧性的影响效应：研究述评与未来展望

在动荡的情境下，组织韧性成为企业实现可持续发展的关键因素。文章基于“梳理—整合—拓展”的逻辑，提出一个旨在系统理解组织韧性影响效应及其机制的整合框架。基于悖论视角分析组织韧性相关概念及组织韧性的测量现状；对组织韧性影响效应的文献进行梳理，揭示组织韧性在个体和组织层面的影响效应和作用机制；从探讨组织韧性对员工和组织层面的双刃剑效应、丰富组织韧性的边界条件、开发符合中国情境下的组织韧性测量体系、拓展研究方法等方面，提出未来的研究展望。研究加深了对组织韧性影响效应的认识，为组织韧性的影响效应研究提供了更为宽泛的视角。     

货币投机性冲击的加剧与扩散机制

20世纪80年代以来，金融市场在全球范围内得到迅猛发展，这种发展至少无法简单地用实质经济增长因素来解释，尤其是大量基本不受各国管理当局和国际经济组织监控的“无国籍”私人资本熟练地运用各种最新的金融工具，凭借着高新技术，在国际金融市场上自由移动，寻求获利机会，使国际金融的动荡成为常态，投机性冲击频繁发生，且冲击的潜在力度和持续时间不断增加，并且表现出明显的区域性特征。本文针对货币投机性冲击这种现象，对其冲击加剧和扩散机制进行了理论分析，认为投机性冲击一般是通过吸附效应和“羊群效应”得以加剧，通过溢出效应和传染效应得以扩散。     

跨国公司在华技术研发对我国产业技术进步的双重效应研究——“溢出效应”和“挤出效应”解析

近年来，随着跨国公司日益加强在华技术研发的投资力度，对我国产业技术进步的影响也逐渐以双重效应体现出来，即“溢出效应”和“挤出效应”。一方面，通过先进技术的扩散、竞争意识的增强、人力资源的培育，溢出效应正对我国产业技术进步带来正面影响。但是也必须同时警觉跨国公司投资研发活动的实质以及所执行的研发战略。加上我国自身研发创新机制的不健全．这些人为的障碍所产生的负面影响已经在一定程度上阻碍了国内企业的技术进步，对国内整个技术研发环境造成了伤害。在双重效应的影响下，国内企业应该做到趋利避害·努力提升自身核心竞争力，创造条件使技术溢出的正面效应最大化，达到与跨国公司双赢的局面。     

中日韩贸易开放对碳排放的影响机制研究

基于中日韩1979—2021年的面板数据，通过传统回归、面板分位数回归和中介效应模型，研究贸易开放对二氧化碳排放的影响及作用机制，研究结果表明：贸易开放显著促进碳排放，高碳排放区受贸易开放影响较大，低碳排放区受贸易开放影响较小；贸易开放的规模效应、技术效应和结构效应均为正，贸易开放通过技术效应和结构效应间接作用于规模效应，从而促进碳排放；经济增长对碳排放的影响最为显著，现阶段仍表现为促进作用。中日韩应当加强新能源领域合作，加快改善贸易结构，提高能源效率和绿色技术转化率，尽快实现产业转型，助推亚太地区实现“碳中和”。     

农村城镇化的社会经济效应

本根据发展经济学和市政学的一般原理，就我国农村城镇化的经济效应、社会效应、化效应和环境效应等问题进行了探讨，以此明确农村城镇化的社会经济意义。     

Penetration and Post-infection Development of Meloidogyne Incognita on Tobacco as Treated by Rhizobacteria Pseudomonas Fluorescens Strain P-72-10

The bio-control potential of rhizospere bacteria Pseudomonas fluorescens against plant-parasite nematode had been demonstrated. P. fluorescens had shown the effect to enhance tobacco resistance to root-knot nematode Meloidogyne incognita. Inoculation with P. fluoreseens in tobacco could lead to significant reductions in the number of juveniles that penetrated tobacco root and further life stage development of the juveniles. The number of juveniles penetrated into tobac- co root in treatment with P. fluorescens is significantly different from CK at 2DAI, 6DAI, 8DAI and 10DAI. Significant reduction and delayed development of juveniles that penetrated into tobacco root and treated were observed in treatment at 14DAI, 21DAI, 28DAI and 35DAI. In addition, P. fluoreseens treatment leads to a significant reduction in the number of eggs per egg-mass at 35 DAI. The results show P. fluorescens induced a continuously suppression on root-knot nema- tode M. incognita throughout their entire early infection phase of root penetration, subsequent life stage development and reproduction.     

For Better or for Worse? Local Impacts of the Decentralization of Indonesia’s Forest Sector

This paper quantifies the local impacts of mechanized logging on forest-dependent communities in Indonesia, before and after decentralization. A conceptual framework incorporates financial, social, enforcement, rent-seeking, and environmental impacts. Using data from 60 communities in East Kalimantan, the empirical results suggest that significantly more households received financial and in-kind benefits after decentralization compared to before. Many communities engaged in self-enforcement activities against firms both before and after decentralization. Post-decentralization, a significantly higher proportion of households perceived community forest ownership. There were few significant differences in perceived environmental impacts. Little evidence exists of a post-decentralization trade-off between environmental and financial contractual provisions.     

以资本管理为核心的银行治理综合评价指标研究

商业银行的特殊性体现在风险性、外部性和多重治理目标上，尤其集中体现在风险管理的本质上。风险管理日益成为现代商业银行的主体活动和核心职能，资本管理成为现代商业银行风险管理的核心。在整合EVA和RAROC指标的基础上。文章构建了以资本管理为核心的银行治理的综合评价指标，以求真实反映银行经营的成果，有效衡量风险收益和风险成本的对比关系，从而反映以资本管理为核心的银行风险管理的过程、能力和效率。     

Markteintrittstiming von Telekommunikationsdiensteanbietern

Zusammenfassung Die vorliegende Studie analysiert für 87 Neuprodukteinführungen (NPE) und Auslandsmarkteintritte (AME) von Telekommunikations(TK)-Diensteanbietern in Deutschland, zu denen 42 Schlüsselinformanten in einer schriftlichen Befragung Auskunft gaben, (1) inwieweit deren zeitliche Eintrittspositionierung durch Marktcharakteristika und Unternehmensressourcen erkl?rbar ist sowie (2) inwieweit und gegebenenfalls unter welchen unternehmensexternen und -internen Situationsbedingungen deren Markteintrittstiming mit dem wahrgenommenen Eintrittserfolg assoziiert ist. Ein früher Markteintritt wurde dann realisiert, wenn die Wettbewerbsintensit?t im adressierten Gesch?ft niedrig und das Budget für den Expansionsschritt überdurchschnittlich ausfielen. Zwischen dem Markteintrittstiming und der Beurteilung des Eintrittserfolgs bestand ein nicht monotoner, umgekehrt U-f?rmiger Zusammenhang: Frühe Folger wiesen signifikant bessere Erfolgswerte auf als Pioniere und sp?te Folger, deren Erfolgsniveaus nicht signifikant divergierten. In einer Industrie, die durch starke externe Netzeffekte gepr?gt ist, fallen offenbar die Nachteile eines Markteintritts als Pionier oder sp?ter Folger st?rker ins Gewicht als die Vorteile dieser beiden zeitlichen Eintrittspositionierungen. Unabh?ngig vom Markteintrittstiming wurden NPE/AME von TK-Unternehmen als erfolgreicher eingestuft, wenn sie sich in einen Markt mit stark wachsender Nachfrage und aufeinander abgestimmt (re)agierenden Wettbewerbern mit qualitativ überdurchschnittlichen, abw?rtskompatiblen, erprobbaren und wenig erkl?rungsbedürftigen TK-Diensten engagierten.      

利用膜技术回收利用碱性废水研究进展

回顾了利用膜分离技术处理碱性废水的工艺与综合利用技术所取得的丰硕成果，总结了各种治理方法的特点、适用性及发展方向。     

Taxing Times in Indonesia: The Challenge of Restoring Competitiveness and the Search for Fiscal Space

Indonesia’s economic growth picked up slightly in mid-2016 but remains below the level demanded by government and popular aspirations. Despite a plethora of reforms intended to increase efficiency and productivity, some policies are perverse and longstanding problems of implementation remain. The share of manufacturing has declined, the real exchange rate has appreciated, exports have dwindled, and growth has been trending downwards. The banking sector is stable but inefficient, with wide net interest margins and numerous barriers to competition. Trade protection, particularly in basic food commodities, has created high costs that weigh particularly heavily on the poor. Declining government revenues have placed increasing pressure on the public budget, even as the current administration aims to increase spending on infrastructure and welfare and to enhance productivity. In an effort to increase revenues, the government has announced a tax amnesty program and other measures. In addition, Sri Mulyani Indrawati, the new finance minister, has taken steps to cut non-essential expenditure in order to secure high spending on infrastructure and at the same time keep within the 3% budget deficit limit stipulated by law. Although the overall debt situation is not yet alarming, declining revenues and budget cuts that do not fully reflect this decline are putting pressure on increasing debt levels. The government’s high-profile tax amnesty program was the major policy initiative implemented in the second half of 2016 that aimed to relieve this pressure. Despite widespread criticism of, and scepticism about, the tax amnesty (both within and outside Indonesia), its first phase had a much higher participation rate than most independent accounts expected. Revenues raised so far through the amnesty are less than 60% of the official target, but this is actually a strong result for the short term. The bigger question, however, is whether the amnesty is a key element of a more encompassing strategy to overhaul the system of taxation and tax administration.     

The causes of Japan's ‘lost decade’: The role of household consumption

In this paper, I analyze the causes of the prolonged slowdown of the Japanese economy in the 1990s and find that the stagnation of investment, especially private fixed investment, was the primary culprit. I then investigate the causes of the stagnation of household consumption during the 1990s and find that the stagnation of household disposable income, the decline in household wealth, and increased uncertainty about the future are among the contributing factors. Finally, I consider whether demand side factors or supply side factors were more important as causes of the prolonged slowdown of the Japanese economy in the 1990s and conclude that the former (especially misguided government policies) were probably more important.