危机后发达国家的非传统货币政策研究

次贷危机爆发以后,各国纷纷实行非传统的货币政策来刺激经济。自2009年下半年以来,随着一些国家的经济状况开始恢复,人们开始担心通货膨胀的出现,因此研究非传统货币政策何时退出就成为当前各国宏观经济保持稳定的一个重要任务。发达国家实行非传统货币政策的原因在于传统的货币政策传导机制,即从市场基准利率向短期利率和长期利率的传导受阻。因此非传统货币政策实施的目的在于降低短期利率预期和风险溢价,同时提高通胀预期,降低长期实际利率,最终起到刺激实体经济的作用。文章以美国为例,考察了美国金融指标、通胀指标和宏观经济指标,得出结论:传统的货币政策传导机制的恢复还未得到充分的确认。另外,由于欧洲债务危机的出现给全球经济复苏蒙上阴影,因此全面退出非传统货币政策尚不具备条件。但是在全球化时代,寻求大国之间退出策略的合作和协调是十分必要的。     

What is the best way to impede a central bank?

Recent work has found several ways of restricting central bank behavior to achieve much of the gain of commitment over discretion. This paper compares three such impediments: A quadratic penalty on interest rate changes, a fixed penalty on any rate change, and forced infrequency of rate change. All three achieve significant improvement over discretion, and often come close to interest rate rule commitment. The fixed penalty is frequently the best performing restriction, although the quadratic penalty does best in certain alternative parameterizations. Combinations are found to provide no improvement over the individual impediments alone.     

Decomposing the effects of monetary policy using an external instruments SVAR

We study the effects of monetary policy on economic activity separately identifying the effects of a conventional change in the fed funds rate from the policy of forward guidance. We use a structural VAR identified using external instruments from futures market data. The response of output to a fed funds rate shock is found to be consistent with typical monetary VAR analyses. However, the effect of a forward guidance shock that increases long‐term interest rates has an expansionary effect on output. This counterintuitive response is shown to be tied to the asymmetric information between the Federal Reserve and the public.     

我国货币供应量对通货膨胀的影响分析

本文首先分析了我国近年来货币供给和居民消费价格指数的变动趋势,然后选取近20年的统计数据,建立一元回归模型,就居民消费价格指数与货币供应量的相关关系进行了实证检验。根据实证分析结果,提出了相关建议。     

基于公平的中低收入居民住房保障体系研究

住房问题是关系到国计民生的大问题,为低收入者提供住房是住房保障制度重要内容,也是构建和谐社会的必然要求。我国已经初步建立起了以经济适用房制度、廉租房制度、住房公积金为主要内容的住房保障制度。从财政和金融政策两大层面,分析了我国住房保障制度的财政金融支持问题,提出了解决住房保障资金问题的路径选择,主要包括:完善政府住房保障投入;设立专业性的住房银行;发展并完善商业性抵押贷款业务等。     

货币渠道与信贷渠道的比较研究——基于1994年至2011年季度数据

货币政策传导机制素有货币渠道和信贷渠道之分.我国GDP受到货币供应量和贷款余额的共同影响,在两个标准差的货币政策变量冲击下,贷款余额对我国GDP的影响大于货币供应量,而随着时间的推移,货币渠道的影响在逐渐加大,信贷渠道的影响则相对减弱.     

中国狭义货币流通速度预测初探--基于VAR模型的实证分析

影响宏观经济运行的货币变量不仅仅是货币存量,在某种意义上说,更为重要的应该是货币流量。因此,在制定和执行货币政策时,只关注货币供应量而忽视流通速度的思路是不妥的。本文所做的预测模型结论表明,利用先期的CPI、厂商收益率、名义利率和股票指数变动的季度数据,可在较小的偏差内估算出货币流通速度的变化。央行可以在估算货币流通速度变化的同时,调节货币供应量,从而提高货币政策的有效性。     

金融危机背景下美联储的非常规货币政策操作

面对金融危机,关联储不仅非常规地使用传统货币政策工具,而且还采取大量激进的非常规措施,通过购买各种证券向市场注入流动性以及运用信息沟通引导市场预期降低长期借贷成本的方式缓解金融市场紧缩局面。非常规货币政策是应对非常时期的非常措施,随着经济的复苏,各国经济刺激政策如何寻找安全退出路径是这一时期全球央行的主要任务。     

我国法定存款准备金政策工具有效性分析

文章从三个层次对我国法定存款准备金政策工具的有效性做出实证分析:在促进最终目标实现的层面上,运用定性方法展开讨论,认为法定存款准备金率调整对稳定物价、抵御经济波动的作用有限;在影响中介目标的层面上,结合相关分析和定性分析方法,发现法定存款准备金率与信贷量呈正相关关系,法定存款准备金率的调整有助于稳定货币供应量的增长速度;在中介目标到最终目标的传导层面上,运用格兰杰因果分析,认为货币供应量对总产出和物价的影响不足。此外,文章探讨了紧缩性货币政策时期准备金政策工具低效的几个原因:超额准备金、外汇占款、通胀预期、银行外流动性。     

民营银行设立路径选择与发展探讨

文章提出了民营银行应采取什么样的模式或路径发展才能发挥民营银行的优势,并阐述了民营银行的业务经营发展的思路,探讨了设立民营银行的必要性。     

民营银行的市场定位和发展路径探析

文章认为,发展民营银行是中国银行业改革和市场经济发展的必然选择,民营银行的健康发展,首先必须端正民营银行的发展目的,其次要从我国金融业发展的实际出发准确地对转轨经济条件下民营银行进行市场定位,最后选择正确的发展路径。     

Private equity investment return analysis based on the earning persistence and trading strategy of new economic enterprise

For the purpose of analyzing the private equity investment return, this paper investigates the extent to which current earnings performance persisting into future depends on the components of earnings, and tries to find out whether stock price reflects the information of earnings. Comparing to accrued components of earnings, cash flow components of earnings has more explanatory ability for abnormal returns and with higher persistence, especially for new economic industry. Eventually we find that investors＇ inability to distinguish correctly among the components of earnings. Constructing a portfolio based on the magnitudes of accrued components of earnings, we can earn 4% to 13% of excess returns for new economic industry and general industry.     

美国与中国货币政策工具选择的差异分析

综合近十年美国与中国在货币政策运用方面的表现,文章认为存在着注重利率的调节和注重准备金率的调节两种不同取向。文中对这种差异从利率市场化、货币政策目标及金融市场发展程度三个层面分析,并分析两国在货币政策使用的效果,最后提出我国货币政策的调整应该依据具体的经济情况、加强中国利率市场化以及建立风险防范机制三点建议。     

我国法定存款准备金政策操作及存在的主要问题分析

法定存款准备金政策是我国央行使用频率最高的货币政策,文章通过对央行300次的准备金率的调整探讨我国为何频繁使用法定存款准备金制度,以及自身存在的问题。     

Effects of quantitative easing on firm performance in the euro area

This paper examines the effects of quantitative easing on firm performance using firm-level data in the euro area during the Corporate Sector Purchase Programme. We apply a difference-in-difference framework and focus on long-term and short-term book leverage, turnover, and profitability. Despite an increase in leverage, firms in the treatment group did not experience an increase in turnover or profitability as a result of the CSPP. Improved access to credit in the bond market seems to have no statistically discernible effects on the firms' real performance. Our empirical results also show cross country and region heterogeneity in the effects of CSPP. Possible factors driving the results include the limited scope of the CSPP program, financial constraints being less of a concern for firms in the euro area, and that monetary policy is in general less effective in the aftermath of financial crises as the monetary transmission mechanism is partially impaired.     

电子货币对货币政策的冲击——供给和需求层面的分析

随着网络技术的持续发展,消费者购物行为与支付方式亦随之改变,如信用卡、电子现金与电子支票等支付工具的蓬勃发展,无现金社会环境衍然已成趋势。电子货币乃因应电子支付系统之发展,以及消费者支持各类创新支付工具下所产生。本文主要从供给和需求两个层面来探讨电子货币出现情况下央行货币政策所受到的冲击。     

本轮通货膨胀的成因及对策

文中对中国目前通货膨胀的形成原因进行了分析,认为本轮通货膨胀的类型是成本推动型,提出了要谨防由结构性通货膨胀演变为全面通货膨胀,并从货币政策和财税政策两个方面分析如何应对本轮通货膨胀。     

基于局部调整模型的我国现阶段货币需求函数分析

借鉴成本最小化行为引发的局部调整模型,采用1999年一季度至2005第三季度数据,建立我国短期动态货币需求函数。回归结果显示,实际货币需求的收入弹性为0.166,利率弹性为-0.096,通货膨胀弹性为-0.645,基本符合一般市场经济特质。根据我国近期宏观调控目标进行短期动态预测,得出2005年四季度至2006年四季度名义货币供应量M1季度同比增长率平均为13.2%,表明在当前错综复杂的经济形势下,特别是外部冲击形成空前压力下,我国货币政策应保持谨慎紧缩倾向。     

Evaluating the prospective effects of alternative regulatory policies on the investment behaviour and environmental performance of a newly liberalised electricity industry in Taiwan

The research explores the potential effects of alternative regulatory policies for electricity market liberalisation on the investment behaviour and environmental performance of the electricity industry in Taiwan. The results provide insights into how the electricity market might evolve under the proposed reform scheme and other possible scenarios. This paper begins by reviewing the characteristics of the industry and how it has developed so far, and follows by studying the planned liberalisation agenda and the main purposes of the regulatory policies. Whether the liberalised electricity market will develop in a desirable direction is investigated by analysing investors’ aspirations for the market and their possible reactions to regulatory policies. The paper focuses on the investment decisions of the generation sector and concludes with assessments of the implications for security of supply, fuel diversity, electricity price and the environment.     

我国城市基础设施外资利用的政策建议

文章论述了我国城市基础设施建设中外资利用现状及存在问题 ,提出了相关的政策建议。