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1.
    
For estimatingp(⩾ 2) independent Poisson means, the paper considers a compromise between maximum likelihood and empirical Bayes estimators. Such compromise estimators enjoy both good componentwise as well as ensemble properties. Research supported by the NSF Grant Number MCS-8218091.  相似文献   

2.
    
While the likelihood ratio measures statistical support for an alternative hypothesis about a single parameter value, it is undefined for an alternative hypothesis that is composite in the sense that it corresponds to multiple parameter values. Regarding the parameter of interest as a random variable enables measuring support for a composite alternative hypothesis without requiring the elicitation or estimation of a prior distribution, as described below. In this setting, in which parameter randomness represents variability rather than uncertainty, the ideal measure of the support for one hypothesis over another is the difference in the posterior and prior log‐odds. That ideal support may be replaced by any measure of support that, on a per‐observation basis, is asymptotically unbiased as a predictor of the ideal support. Such measures of support are easily interpreted and, if desired, can be combined with any specified or estimated prior probability of the null hypothesis. Two qualifying measures of support are minimax‐optimal. An application to proteomics data indicates that a modification of optimal support computed from data for a single protein can closely approximate the estimated difference in posterior and prior odds that would be available with the data for 20 proteins.  相似文献   

3.
    
This article examines a range of legal and philosophical issues related to the drug-testing debate. The discussion of legal issues includes potential litigation on constitutional grounds (for public employees), statutory and tort grounds, or on the basis of civil rights legislation. Arbitration standards are also examined for situations involving unionized employees. The article further highlights pragmatic issues including the accuracy and costs (economic and noneconomic) of drug tests as well as the distinction between a positive drug test and impaired performance. Finally, the article addresses the delicate balance between an employer's right to unimpaired performance and an employee's right to privacy.  相似文献   

4.
In three experiments undergraduate students at an urban university evaluated drug-testing programs described in scenarios. Evaluations were inversely related to the false positive rate and were more favorable when a positive test result led to rehabilitation than when it led to termination of employment. Inconsistent effects on evaluations were observed for ability of the test to distinguish between previous drug use and current drug-based impairment, false negative rate, and implications of drug-impaired performance for public safety. There was also mixed evidence concerning the relation between evaluations and respondent belief in a just world. These results provide some support for Crant and Bateman's (1989) justice-based model of reactions to drug-testing and have implications for organizational drug-testing policies.  相似文献   

5.
根据我国实际修正Z值模型,研究国内外多家石油公司财务数据的财务风险问题,得出我国石油上市公司财务风险逐年上升的结论,由此研究我国石油上市公司财务风险控制弱于国际顶尖石油公司的原因,并从资本运动角度提出了一些合理化建议。  相似文献   

6.
    
Empirical Bayes methods of estimating the local false discovery rate (LFDR) by maximum likelihood estimation (MLE), originally developed for large numbers of comparisons, are applied to a single comparison. Specifically, when assuming a lower bound on the mixing proportion of true null hypotheses, the LFDR MLE can yield reliable hypothesis tests and confidence intervals given as few as one comparison. Simulations indicate that constrained LFDR MLEs perform markedly better than conventional methods, both in testing and in confidence intervals, for high values of the mixing proportion, but not for low values. (A decision‐theoretic interpretation of the confidence distribution made those comparisons possible.) In conclusion, the constrained LFDR estimators and the resulting effect‐size interval estimates are not only effective multiple comparison procedures but also they might replace p‐values and confidence intervals more generally. The new methodology is illustrated with the analysis of proteomics data.  相似文献   

7.
    
Business academics have focused their attention on empirical investigation of programs' effect on organizational competitive performance. These studies primarily emphasize theory building. With the many definitions of theory, academics are not certain whether their research papers meet the specific requirements for theory development required by the academic field of the philosophy of science. Certainly, supply chain academics generally believe that their academic articles fulfill the requirements of theory building. Although many of these articles do have elements of theory, more focus is needed on the specific requirements of theory to assure that academic research is “good” theory building. The primary purpose of this research paper is to logically develop a set of guidelines to assist empirical researchers to assure that their studies fulfill the requirements of good theory based upon traditional scientific theory building. By fulfilling the requirements of good theory, researchers will develop studies that will have a lasting impact on their academic field. To achieve a lasting impact on an academic field, it is necessary to follow a logical plan. This article provides a plan for logical guidelines for developing an understanding of how and why “good” theory building is achieved. This article logically develops a formal conceptual definition of theory along with its related properties to understand these guidelines. Next, it analyzes the requirements of theory, “good” theory, and their properties. These guidelines are included in the existing philosophy of science publications. However, this article consolidates these sources and logically explains why these guidelines are needed. In the conclusion, the guidelines are summarized to serve as a summary checklist for supply chain researchers to use for ensuring their articles will be recognized as a contribution to the academic field. So in that sense, this article does not develop a revolutionary new insight into theory‐building empirical articles, but rather integrates diverse traditional philosophy of science requirements into a much simpler set of guidelines. Through logical development of these guidelines, researchers will understand the structure of theory and how to ensure their studies can be modified to have a lasting impact on the field of supply chain management.  相似文献   

8.
For contingency tables with extensive missing data, the unrestricted MLE under the saturated model, computed by the EM algorithm, is generally unsatisfactory. In this case, it may be better to fit a simpler model by imposing some restrictions on the parameter space. Perlman and Wu (1999) propose lattice conditional independence (LCI) models for contingency tables with arbitrary missing data patterns. When this LCI model fits well, the restricted MLE under the LCI model is more accurate than the unrestricted MLE under the saturated model, but not in general. Here we propose certain empirical Bayes (EB) estimators that adaptively combine the best features of the restricted and unrestricted MLEs. These EB estimators appear to be especially useful when the observed data is sparse, even in cases where the suitability of the LCI model is uncertain. We also study a restricted EM algorithm (called the ER algorithm) with similar desirable features. Received: July 1999  相似文献   

9.
Bayesian and empirical Bayesian estimation methods are reviewed and proposed for the row and column parameters in two-way Contingency tables without interaction. Rasch's multiplicative Poisson model for misreadings is discussed in an example. The case is treated where assumptions of exchangeability are reasonable a priori for the unknown parameters. Two different types of prior distributions are compared, It appears that gamma priors yield more tractable results than lognormal priors.  相似文献   

10.
In many applications, multiple correlation and partial correlation for three or more fuzzy sets are very important, but Chiang and Lin (1999, Fuzzy Sets and Systems 102: 221–226) do not solve this problem. Here, we propose a method to calculate the multiple correlation and partial correlation for fuzzy data, by adopting the concepts from the multivariate correlation model. In order to fit into normal framework, we use empirical logit transform (see, Agresti, [1990, Categorical Data Analysis. New York: Wiley]; Johnson and Wichern, [1992, Applied Multivariate Statistical Analysis 3rd edn. Engelwood Cliffs; Prentice-Hall.]) for membership function grades to achieve this.  相似文献   

11.
    
Traditional clustering algorithms are deterministic in the sense that a given dataset always leads to the same output partition. This article modifies traditional clustering algorithms whereby data are associated with a probability model, and clustering is carried out on the stochastic model parameters rather than the data. This is done in a principled way using a Bayesian approach which allows the assignment of posterior probabilities to output partitions. In addition, the approach incorporates prior knowledge of the output partitions using Bayesian melding. The methodology is applied to two substantive problems: (i) a question of stylometry involving a simulated dataset and (ii) the assessment of potential champions of the 2010 FIFA World Cup.  相似文献   

12.
This study, using 1993 survey data taken from large Ontario, Canada, headquartered organizations (n = 127), compares workplace substance testing versus nontesting organizations based on a number of external and internal factors. Results showed that few Canadian organizations conduct workplace substance testing. Variables such as sector, location of operations, risk sensitivity and organizational structure appear to be not related to the workplace substance testing decision. Partial support was found for age and size of organization (measured in sales volume) as differentiating workplace substance testing organizations from non-testers. Public policy implications based on these findings are provided.  相似文献   

13.
    
An early example of a compound decision problem of Robbins (1951) is employed to illustrate some features of the development of empirical Bayes methods. Our primary objective is to draw attention to the constructive role that the nonparametric maximum likelihood estimator for mixture models introduced by Kiefer & Wolfowitz (1956) can play in these developments.  相似文献   

14.
The focus of this report is to describe the efforts of management (Midwest Coca-Cola) and organized labor (Local 792, International Brotherhood of Teamsters) in attempting to confront the issue of substance abuse (drugs and alcohol) by employees covered by a collective bargaining agreement. The conclusion is reached that the experience at Midwest Coca-Cola's bottling facility is an excellent example of management and organized labor recognizing a common threat, arguing to deal with the threat, and attempting through joint action to confront the menace of substance abuse in the workplace.  相似文献   

15.
    
A large sample (N=692) of undergraduate business majors were surveyed in order to assess their attitudes toward 54 different employer activities that might impact on employee rights in the workplace. Demographic and lifestyle measures as well as one personality variable, authoritarianism, were also included in the survey. A factor analysis on attitudes toward employer activities revealed three distinct factors, which we labeled private, polydrug (i.e., polygraphs and drug tests), and normative activities. Mean levels of agreement with employer actions were highest for normative and lowest for private activities, with polydrug activities falling in between. All mean differences were highly significant. Authoritarianism proved to be the strongest predictor of attitudes toward both private and polydrug activities.  相似文献   

16.
    
Abstract  A class of empirical Bayes estimators (EBE's) is proposed for estimating the natural parameter of a one-parameter exponential family. In contrast to related EBE's proposed and investigated until now, the EBE's presented in this paper possess the nice property of being monotone by construction. Based on an arbitrary reasonable estimator of the underlying marginal density, a simple algorithm is given to construct a monotone EBE. Two representations of these EBE's are given, one of which serves as a tool in establishing asymptotic results, while the other one, related with isotonic regression, proves useful in the actual computation.  相似文献   

17.
Folklore has it that a very simple supervised classification rule, based on the typically false assumption that the predictor variables are independent, can be highly effective, and often more effective than sophisticated rules. We examine the evidence for this, both empirical, as observed in real data applications, and theoretical, summarising explanations for why this simple rule might be effective.  相似文献   

18.
    
These days, road safety has become a major concern in most modern societies. In this respect, the determination of road locations that are more dangerous than others (black spots or also called sites with promise) can help in better scheduling road safety policies. The present paper proposes a multivariate model to identify and rank sites according to their total expected cost to the society. Bayesian estimation of the model via a Markov Chain Monte Carlo approach is discussed in this paper. To illustrate the proposed model, accident data from 23,184 accident locations in Flanders (Belgium) are used and a cost function proposed by the European Transport Safety Council is adopted to illustrate the model. It is shown in the paper that the model produces insightful results that can help policy makers in prioritizing road infrastructure investments.  相似文献   

19.
Testing employees for drug use is an increasingly widespread organizational response to the problem of employee drug abuse. Despite this, little attention has been given to its effects on employee attitudes and behavior. This paper reviews the issue of drug testing in industry, provides a theoretical model of employee perceptions of and responses to drug-testing programs, and offers an agenda for future research directions.  相似文献   

20.
    
Testing for the presence of drug continues to gain popularity as a method for controlling drug use in the workplace. It is important that employers understand how potential applicants and current employees will react to the various types and purposes of drug testing. Employees (n = 529) were interviewed to investigate the role of attitudes toward drugs and work setting characteristics in explaining acceptance or rejection of drug testing. Individuals believing users should be held responsible for becoming dependent on cocaine, who felt the primary cause of cocaine addiction was weak moral character, and those who felt cocaine users should be treated as criminals were more supportive of drug screening and the testing of current employees.  相似文献   

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