An SVAR Model of Fluctuations in U.S. Migration Flows and State Labor Market Dynamics

Large internal migration flows are typically viewed as evidence of flexible U.S. labor markets adjusting to asymmetrical regional demand shocks. Yet, amenity-induced migration flows suggest that they may not necessarily facilitate adjustment to demand shocks and instead may be destabilizing. This paper employs a structural vector autoregression model with long-run identifying restrictions to account for both labor-demand and labor-supply shocks in examining the role of migration in U.S. regional labor-market fluctuations. The results reveal that less than one-half of innovations in state migration flows are responses to labor-demand shocks. It is not until the third period that migrants fill a majority of demand-induced jobs in a typical state, while it takes about 7 to 8 years for migration flows to fully adjust to labor-demand shocks. The extent of the migration response also has implications for how much state and local economic development policies benefit original residents.     

The Short‐ and Long‐Run Determinants of Less‐Educated Immigrant Flows into U.S. States

We use a gravity model of migration and alternative estimation strategies to analyze how income differentials affect the flow of immigrants into U.S. states using annual data from the American Community Survey. We add to existing literature by decomposing income differentials into short‐ and long‐term components and by focusing on newly arrived less‐educated immigrants between 2000 and 2009. Our sample is unique in that the vast majority of our observations take zero values. Models that include observations with zero‐flow values find that recent male immigrants respond to differences in (short‐term) GDP fluctuations between origin countries and U.S. states, and perhaps to (long‐term) trend GDP differences as well. More specifically, GDP fluctuations pull less‐educated male immigrants into certain U.S. states, whereas GDP trends push less‐educated male immigrants out of their countries of origin. Effects for less‐educated women are less robust, as GDP coefficients tend to be much smaller than for men.     

Arrival Cohort, Assimilation, and the Earnings of Caribbean Women in the United States

Utilizing data on U.S.-born and Caribbean-born black women from the 1980–2000 U.S. Censuses and the 2000–2007 waves of the American Community Survey, I document the impact of cohort of arrival, tenure of U.S. residence, and country/region of birth on the earnings and earnings assimilation of black women born in the English-, French-, and Spanish-speaking Caribbean. I also test whether selective migration accounts for earnings differences between U.S.-born and Caribbean-born black women in the United States. I show that almost all arrival cohorts of Caribbean women earn less than U.S.-born black women when they first arrive in the United States. However, over time the earnings of early arrival cohorts from the English- and French-speaking Caribbean are projected to surpass the earnings of U.S.-born black women. Indeed, this crossover is most pronounced for women from the English-speaking Caribbean. In models that account for selective migration by comparing the earnings of Caribbean women to U.S.-born black women who have moved across states since birth, I show that more time is required for early arrival cohorts from the English- and French-speaking Caribbean to surpass the earnings of U.S.-born black internal migrants. Women from the Spanish-speaking Caribbean do not seem to experience earnings growth as their tenure of U.S. residence increases. In summary, the findings suggest that selective migration is an important determinant of earnings differences between U.S.-born black women and black women from the Caribbean.     

Temporary migration and capital market imperfections

This paper analyses the temporary migration decision of workerswho are credit constrained. As observed with data on Tunisia,migrants who invest after returning to their country have accumulatedmore savings and stayed longer abroad than salaried return migrants.To capture these features, we analyse the optimal migrationduration and occupational choice of workers using a life-cyclemaximisation model. An econometric test enables us to evaluatethe extend to which liquidity constraints affect self-employmentof returned migrants. The model predicts unexpected effectsof policy measures on migration behaviour. In particular, migrantswho receive funds to invest after return do not necessarilyreturn earlier.     

全球化背景下的美国纺织服装产业与进口产品:竞争还是合作?

传统观点将进口产品的涌入单纯视为美国纺织服装产业生存和发展的负面冲击因素。然而,全球化背景下,美国纺织服装产业事实上实施了多项产业转型策略,产业运行与进口产品之间的关系也随之发生了较大变化。本文首先从理论角度对转型后的美国纺织服装产业与进口产品之间的关系进行了系统分析。研究发现,由于产业自身特点和美国特定的生产要素禀赋,美国纺织产业和服装产业选择了截然不同的转型路径,转型后的美国纺织产业与进口产品依然偏向竞争性关系,美国服装产业与进口产品则形成了合作性关系。     

Migrant information,job search and the remigration decision

"Labor force migration poses two important questions for the economist. The first concerns the nature, magnitude and direction of labor force response to perceived earnings differentials over space. The latter and more complex question concerns the effectiveness, or efficiency, of this response--namely migration--and other market mechanisms in reducing these earnings differentials over time." Both questions are addressed in this paper "by examining relationships among: (1) quality of information obtained prior to a move, (2) search duration at the migration destination, and (3) the likelihood of subsequent (perhaps corrective) remigration." These relationships are analyzed using the human capital model of migration-remigration and data from the 1970 U.S. census.     

Non-white migration patterns in northern metropolitan areas, 1960–1970: The interaction between economic and affinitive factors

"The principal objective of this article is to investigate the determinants of variation in the growth of non-white populations attributable to migration across northern [U.S.] metropolitan areas during the 1960s." The investigation is done by means of a single equation framework model, which is applied to U.S. Bureau of the Census data. The results indicate that "the migration-related growth of non-white populations in northern metropolitan areas during the 1960s was...importantly and directly associated both with the level of employment opportunities as measured by the proportion of the non-white population of labor force age officially employed in the mainstream economy of an SMSA and with the SMSA rate of net migration occurring over the preceding 10-year period, which indicates the role of chain migration."     

Comparative demographic effects of Canadian-U.S. immigration flows

"A joint study by Statistics Canada and the U.S. Bureau of the Census examines special tabulations of U.S. residents born in Canada from the 1980 census of the United States and compares them with matching tabulations of Canadian residents born in the United States from the 1981 census of Canada. As might be expected, the two populations are remarkably similar and the preponderance of the migration flow is from Canada to the United States. The comparative social and economic characteristics of the two migrant stocks show the effects of increasing legal restrictions on migration between the two countries in the last two decades. The characteristics of the migrant flows have changed from large, unregulated population movements responding to economic motivations similar to internal migration flows to a much smaller, highly controlled movement more typical of long-distance international migration flows." This is a revised version of a paper originally presented at the 1987 Annual Meeting of the Population Association of America.     

The complementarity between U.S. foreign direct investment stock and trade

Within a gravity model framework, this paper will establish that trade and foreign direct investment (FDI) are complementary, using trade and FDI stock data on a bilateral basis between the U.S. and 51 other countries over the period 1982 to 1994. U.S. outward FDI is found to have a larger predicted impact on U.S. exports than does inward FDI. On the other hand, inward FDI is found to have a larger predicted impact on U.S. imports than does U.S. outward FDI. These results are directly linked to patterns of intrafirm trade within the multinational enterprise (MNE), a result consistent with the transactions cost theory of MNEs. In addition, a sectoral analysis indicates that U.S. outward FDI in manufacturing has a large predicted impact on both exports and imports, whereas U.S. outward FDI in services has a large predicted impact on U.S. exports but little or no predicted impact on imports. Detailed comments and suggestions were provided by Joe Daniels, Albert Berry, and seminar participants at the University of Toronto, York University, Industry Canada, and the 1999 annual Canadian Economics Association meeting. Research assistance was provided by George Georgopoulos and Anthony Yao. The authors are responsible for any remaining errors.     

A multidimensional analysis of the international performance of U.S. manufacturing industries

A Multidimensional Analysis of the International Performance of U.S. Manufacturing Industries. — This study analyzes the determinants of three alternative measures of the international performance of U.S. manufacturing industries: export shares, the average number of foreign markets served, and the intensity of foreign direct investment. The factors affecting these three variables and various interactions among them are estimated econometrically using a sample of 37 U.S. industries. Overall, variables reflecting industrial organization, technological innovation, and scale economies are found to be more significant than traditional factor-proportions or labor-cost factors in explaining U.S. manufacturing performance in overseas markets.     

Do exchange rate changes have symmetric or asymmetric effects on the trade balance? Evidence from U.S.–Korea commodity trade

Previous studies of the effects of exchange rate changes on Korea’s trade balance have assumed symmetry between currency depreciation and appreciation. In this paper, we distinguish between the two to show that the effects at the industry level are in fact asymmetrical in most industries for Korea’s bilateral trade with the U.S. We employ an auto-regressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach using quarterly data for the period 1989–2014 for the 79 3-digit industries in which trade between Korea and the U.S. took place. Overall, our model incorporating differentiated responses for appreciation versus depreciation reveals a more significant impact of the exchange rate on commodity trade between Korea and the U.S. than a more standard model that imposes symmetry.     

Real dollarization in Phnom Penh,Evidence from two surveys

This paper aims to identify real dollarization in markets in Phnom Penh and to investigate how U.S. dollar (USD) and Cambodian riel or Khmer riel (KHR) perform the three functions of money—a unit of account, a store of value and a medium of exchange in markets in Phnom Penh through two simple surveys. Real dollarization refers to the use of the U.S. dollar for purchasing goods and services and for paying salary. We find that the choice of currency for transactions varies with market types, sources of products whether they are imported or domestically produced, and prices of products. The survey about currency for salary payment shows that the majority of employed persons in the private sector and in non-government organization receive salary in U.S. dollar while those who work in public sector receive salary in Khmer riel. The majority of employed persons save their money in U.S. dollar. In general, U.S. dollar dominates Khmer riel in performing the three functions of money in Phnom Penh.     

美元贬值对美国经常账户影响的估值效应分析

本文运用资产组合模型和协整计量方法,论证了美元汇率变化所带来的估值效应对美国经常账户调节的影响。分析结果表明,美元贬值引致的估值效应很小,再加上美元贬值可能使美国短期债务利率上升,这就很容易抵销掉贬值所带来的估值收益。因此,美国巨大的贸易赤字不可能通过美元贬值所带来的估值效应得以纠正。     

Economic Freedom and Migration Flows between U.S. States

A modified gravity model is estimated using a cross section of data drawn from the U.S. Census Bureau survey of 2000 in order to analyze the impact of economic freedom on gross migration flows among the lower 48 states. Spatial econometric methods are utilized in order to capture spatial effects not detected by distance. In addition, the Economic Freedom of North America Index is decomposed to determine the individual impact of various policies. Results show that states with higher relative economic freedom experience greater migration inflow through its direct impact on income and employment growth. In aggregate, the findings indicate that individuals migrate toward states with relatively higher government consumption expenditures, relatively lower tax burdens, and states with more freedom with respect to labor decisions in the form of less restrictive minimum wages, less concentration of unions, and less dependence on public employment.     

OPEC's asset demand function—An empirical study

Conclusion This paper considered a simple and standard model of the demand for U.S. securities by one of its major purchasers, OPEC. By comparing the coefficients of the interest, exchange and inflation rate variables to that of the income variable, we found that both the income and the substitution effect play an important role in determining the Middle Eastern members' demand for United States securities. For the remaining members of OPEC, the income effect seems to play a far less important role. Since the Middle Eastern members are the prevalent force in OPEC, the results for all OPEC members more closely resemble this group than the non-Middle Eastern group. The adjusted coefficients of determination clearly indicate that the economic variables incorporated into our model are able to explain variations in the purchase of U.S. securities by the oil exporting countries quite well. However, we believe that a model incorporating the financial sectors of the U.S., OECD (without U.S.) and OPEC would be more complete. We are in the process of formulating such a model and we hope to report our results in due course. Given the policy importance of these questions, such a model has a good deal of merit. The authors would like to acknowledge the assistance provided by the U.S. Treasury Department in the gathering of data, and the Experimental Statistics Department of New Mexico State University for computer time required for this study. The first author was associated with the Treasury Department when this study was launched. The cutomary disclaimer applies.     

The welfare effects of U.S. antidumping duties

Antidumping duties are among the most frequently used nontariff barriers to trade. Despite this, empirical analysis of the welfare effects of antidumping duties has been very limited. This paper helps close this gap by computing the welfare effects of 30 U.S. antidumping duties. These effects are computed using a Dixit-Stiglitz type model of preferences in conjunction with data from the International Trade Commission. The paper finds that the import relief provided by antidumping duties is small in comparison to the losses imposed on U.S. consumers.     

Permanent and Temporary Components of Stock Prices: Evidence from Assessing Macroeconomic Shocks

This paper outlines a simple macro model with overlapping wage contracts to investigate how the temporary and permanent components of stock price movements may be related to aggregate macro-economic supply and demand disturbances. In the content of the model, we show that aggregate demand shocks have only temporary effects on real stock prices, while supply shocks may affect the level of real stock prices permanently. Moreover, the temporary component in U.S. stock prices, identified by placing appropriate structural restrictions on a vector autoregressive system estimated for the postwar period, is statistically significant. This evidence supports the mean-reversion hypothesis that stock prices are not pure random walks. The finding is robust to the choice of variables used in the vector autoregressive system and periodicity.     

美国对华反倾销反补贴并用影响因素研究

本文选取1995～2009年度数据,采用负二项计数模型来探究中国频繁遭受美国"双反"调查的根本原因。研究发现,美国对华发起"双反"调查的宏观决定因素主要包括:美国国内经济形势、美元对人民币实际汇率的变动、美国对华进口渗透率以及美国国内政局变化。其中,美国国内GDP增长率下降、进口渗透率提高以及美元对人民币汇率贬值会显著增加美国对华"双反"调查的数量;而失业率对于美国发起对华"双反"调查数量的影响则与预期不符。     

Die Außenwirtschaft der UdSSR in der zeit von perestrojka

The study of divided government is one of important fields in public choice theory. American voters split their ballots as if intent on preserving divided party control. The U.S. House of Representatives has consistently been Democratic for much of the twentieth century. As indicated by Sprague, it is theoretically true that a number of significant consequences for partisan control of a legislature are entailed by the unequal distribution of seat safety under conditions of high levels of institutionalization. The problem is how to measure the institutionalization of partisan seat safety in a time‐series. The model proposed by Sprague is somewhat awkward and complicated in measuring it. This paper provides a more plausible model and tests empirical data.     

Optimal Monitoring with External Incentives: The Case of Tipping

This article examines the optimal choice of monitoring intensity when workers face external incentives (incentives that are not provided by the firm), such as tips, satisfaction from working well, or the desire to build reputation in order to be more attractive to other employers. Increase in such external incentives reduces optimal monitoring intensity but nevertheless increases effort and profits unambiguously. The model explains why U.S. firms supported the establishment of tipping in the late 19th century and raises the possibility that European firms make costly mistakes by replacing tips with service charges.