城乡人口空间迁移模式的比较研究

农村移民过度集聚不利于城市化可持续发展。文章利用第六次全国人口普查数据的研究结果显示,农村移民表现出显著的单向迁移特征,空间分布高度集中化。但城镇移民双向迁移特征更为明显,空间分布更为均衡。从劳动力市场条件的角度解释认为:户籍制度约束使得农村人口迁移仅基于经济因素考虑,因而空间集聚度很高。而城镇人口由于能够免受此类约束,迁移决策不仅基于经济因素,而且基于社会、文化、环境等多因素考虑,因而空间分布更为均衡。文章认为,建立一种相对均衡的农村移民空间迁移模式,关键是要彻底改革户籍制度,使农村移民享有与城镇居民同等的公共服务获取权。     

The puzzle of migrant labour shortage and rural labour surplus in China

The paper examines the contentious issue of the extent of surplus labour that remains in China. China was an extreme example of a surplus labour economy, but the rapid economic growth during the period of economic reform requires a reassessment of whether the second stage of the Lewis model has been reached or is imminent. The literature is inconclusive. On the one hand, there are reports of migrant labour scarcity and rising migrant wages; on the other hand, estimates suggest that a considerable pool of relatively unskilled labour is still available in the rural sector. Yet the answer has far-reaching developmental and distributional implications. After reviewing the literature, the paper uses the 2002 and 2007 national household surveys of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences to analyse and explain migrant wage behaviour, to predict the determinants of migration, and to examine the size and nature of the pool of potential rural–urban migrants. An attempt is also made to project the rural and urban labour force and migration forward to 2020, on the basis of the 2005 1% Population Survey. The paper concludes that for institutional reasons both phenomena are likely to coexist at present and for some time in the future.     

Can self-employment activity contribute to ascension to urban citizenship? Evidence from rural-to-urban migrant workers in China

The ascension to urban citizenship and assimilation into urban life for rural to urban migrant workers is a pressing mission during the current process of rapid urbanization in developing China. However, the issue of how self-employed migrants, who account for up to 25 percent of total migrant workers in 2009 (Meng, 2012), acquire urban citizenship remains understudied. Using a unique sample from the 2009 Rural to Urban Migrants in China (RUMiC) survey, this paper explores whether self-employment choice contributes to migrant workers' ascension to urban citizenship and integration, and uncovers the underlying mechanisms. We find that although self-employed migrants are capable of earning a higher income, and improving their living conditions, their tendency to reside permanently in the city is not significantly different from their counterparts of wage workers. We argue that self-employed migrants, who are less covered by urban social securities and are more discriminated against by current urban household registration (Hukou) system, tend to lose faith in ascension to urban citizenship. It implies that a social security system with self-employed migrants being covered as well as an urban Hukou admission system favoring diverse human capital (especially taking into account entrepreneurship) would help accelerate the urbanization process.     

Migration and the Right to Social Security： Perceptions of Off-farm Migrants＇ Rights to Social Insurance in China＇s Jiangsu Province

In 2001 China ratified the International Covenant on Economic,Social and Cultural Rights. By so doing the national government became legally bound,"to the maximum of its available resources",to achieve "progressively" full realization of the rights specified in the Covenant. Included amongst these entitlements is the "right of everyone to social security,including social insurance". This paper uses data from Jiangsu to examine the extent to which urbanites agree that previously disenfranchised migrants have the same right to social insurance as the urban population. Many urbanites fear that their existing entitlements to social protection will be diluted if social insurance coverage is extended to include new populations. Accordingly,state agencies and the media have sought to promote acceptance of a more positive view of migrant workers than has traditionally prevailed within towns and cities. We find that younger urban residents,urban residents who already have social insurance and urban residents working in the state-owned sector are more likely to agree that migrants have the same right to social insurance as the urban population.     

Return migration and Hukou registration constraints in Chinese cities

This paper documents the patterns of return migration and labor mobility constraints in China using two unique data: the 2017 China Household Finance Survey and a newly developed urban Hukou registration index. The size of return migrants is larger than that of migrants without local Hukou registration. Majority of return migrants move from more developed region back to their less developed home town where they have Hukou registration. Empirical results show that Hukou registration barrier, typically higher in more developed cities, leads to a higher probability of returning among low-skilled migrant workers, and such an effect only exits among migrants moving across provinces and migrants with rural Hukou.     

Migrants and urban wage: Evidence from China's internal migration

Using China's 2005 1% population survey, this paper examines the wage impact on urban workers of rural to urban migration. We find that, on average, migrants increase the wages of urban workers, with the effect being magnified for more skilled urban workers. This suggests that migrants with skills similar to those of urban workers may complement them. We explore the possible channels of these effects. From the supply perspective, we find that migration inflows accelerate the occupational upgrading of urban workers, especially for low- and medium-skilled workers. From a demand perspective, as the share of migrants in the urban labor force increases, the number and output of industrial firms also increase, and firms become more reliant on low-skilled workers. The more migrants in a city, the greater the available employees for industrial firms, particularly for low-skilled employees. However, the effects on high-skilled firms are much smaller or insignificant. In addition, we find that migrants have little impact on firms' capital-labor and capital-output ratios. This suggests that firms can expand through capital adjustments to absorb inexpensive migrants, which alleviates the possible negative impact of migrants on the urban labor market.     

非农就业提高农村居民幸福感了吗？

农村劳动力非农转移已经成为常态,对农村居民的福利水平产生了深远影响。文章基于体验效用假设,构建了工农要素流动下农村居民的幸福函数,并基于2018年中国家庭追踪调查(CFPS)农村调研数据,实证分析了非农就业影响农村居民幸福感的效应、机制与情境。结果表明:非农就业在总体上促进了农村居民幸福感提升,但却存在一定的"伊斯特林悖论"关系,即短期非农就业能够显著促进幸福增长,但长期非农就业对幸福增长的促进作用是有限的,甚至出现停滞或反向抑制状态;其内在机制主要在于非农就业过程中农村居民的需求层次逐渐由生存需要转向尊重和自我实现需要,但长期非农就业并不能显著提升外出务工农村居民的社会地位感知;非农就业对农村居民幸福感的促进效应,在本地非农就业和跨省流动的就业情境下更为显著,在女性群体、高中层次受教育程度群体中相对更高,且伴随农村居民的年龄增长呈现边际递减规律。基于此,文章提出创造本地就业市场、关注非农劳动力的就业需求变化、加强非农就业劳动力职业技能培训等针对性政策启示。     

民生支出对城乡居民消费的影响及解释——基于省级动态面板数据的分析

本文采用1978-2010年省级数据,运用动态面板模型考察了政府民生支出对东、中、西部地区城乡居民消费的影响,研究表明改革开放以来民生支出对我国居民消费具有明显的挤入作用,但其政策效应存在着的地区和城乡差异。造成这种差异的原因在于,我国的经济体制改革使得城乡居民具有明显的预防性储蓄动机,其中支出不确定性对农村居民消费支出的负向影响大于城镇居民。     

The role of politics in the migration of Zimbabwean teachers to South Africa

This paper contributes to the debate on the role played by the political crisis in Zimbabwe in causing teacher migration to South Africa in the presence of other social and economic drivers. The paper uses data collected through a questionnaire self-administered by 100 Zimbabwean teachers in South Africa (migrants) and another 100 in Zimbabwe (non-migrants). In-depth interviews with a few migrant teachers were used to supplement these data. Although it was the second most mentioned reason for the teachers' migration to South Africa, the role played by political violence or repression in Zimbabwe in causing this migration should not be downplayed. Most migrant teachers came from Zimbabwean schools affected by political violence to a large extent before or after the 2008 presidential elections, especially rural areas. Teachers that held positions or distributed opposition party regalia were mostly displaced by violence. There is an urgent need for political transformation to more democratic rule in Zimbabwe.     

Consumption Structure of Migrant Worker Families in China

This study draws on a survey of migrants in 12 cities across four major urbanizing areas in China and investigates the structure of migrant worker families' urban and rural consumption. The results show that the structure of migrant worker families' consumption has been dominated by survival consumption. These families tend to live frugally in cities while engaging in conspicuous consumption in their rural hometowns. The structure of migrant worker families' consumption is mainly shaped by their income stability and wealth levels rather than their current income level. Moreover, migrant worker families with high educational levels and those who intend to settle permanently in cities are likely to allocate substantial expenditure to status and hedonic consumption and to upgrade their urban consumption structure.     

Moving to the right place at the right time: Economic effects on migrants of the Manchuria Plague of 1910–11

How do initial arrival conditions in a host locality affect migrants’ subsequent economic welfare? Manchuria (Northeast China), which attracted millions of migrants from North China during the first half of the twentieth century, experienced a devastating pneumonic plague outbreak in 1910–11. Using data from a rural household survey in the mid-1930s, we explore how the post-plague conditions in various villages affected migrant cohorts’ long-term wealth accumulation. We find that the migrant households that moved to plague-hit villages soon after the plague ended prospered the most: they owned at least 112% more land than migrant households that either moved elsewhere or migrated to the same village before or long after the plague outbreak. Our results are robust after controlling for factors that influence the long-term wealth accumulation of migrants and are not caused by selection.     

农民工向市民转型的政策测度

统筹城乡经济社会发展是工业化发展到中期阶段的客观要求。重庆市统筹城乡综合配套改革的调研证明,统筹城乡经济社会发展的关键是在工业化和城镇化的进程中解决好农民工问题,它必须在统筹城乡发展的视野下进行系列化的制度创新才能成功。在改革的过程中,既要争取成功,也要宽容失误;在制度创新的过程中,既要争取新制度的完善,也要给中间制度的创新预留更多的空间。     

China's urban poor – Comparing twice poverty between residents and migrants in 2013 and 2018

Using data from the China Household Income Project in 2013 and 2018, this paper studies relative poverty among rural hukou holders living in urban China and urban hukou holders. People living in households with an income below a fixed percent of the median per-capita income and wealth below the same fixed percent of the median per-capita wealth among urban residents are deemed as relative poor. Although migrants with rural hukou living in urban China were more prone to twice poverty than urban residents in 2013, this was not generally the case in 2018.A multivariate analysis shows several factors to be related to the probability of being twice relative poor. Even considering these factors, a rural hukou status increased the probability of being twice relative poor in 2013. In contrast, such an excess risk of being twice relative poor was much lesser outspoken in middle and low-ranking cities in 2018. However, rural to urban migrants living in high-ranking cities had a somewhat higher risk of being relative poor than urban residents with the same characteristics in 2018.     

Wage differentials between urban and rural-urban migrant workers in China

Since the end of the 1980s, the number of migrants working in the urban labor market has increased dramatically. However, migrant workers are treated differently from urban workers. In this paper we examine the labor market discrimination against rural migrants from the point of view of wage differentials using CHIP-2007 data. We apply Jann pooled method to deal with index number problem and use Heckman two step model to correct selection problem when decomposing the wage gap. The decomposition results show that a significant difference in wage gains persists between the two groups as late as 2007. In 2007 migrants only earned 49% of urban workers' income and 17% of the wage gap cannot be explained by observed factors. In detail, differences in educational attainment, work experience and distribution across industry, occupation, and ownership of enterprises account for most of the explained wage gap.     

身份认同对流动人口家庭在流入地消费的影响

流动人口在城市的社会融合是健康城市化的重要内容，并且其本身也产生众多经济影响。文章利用2014年国家卫计委"流动人口社会融合与心理健康专题调查"的调查数据，分析流动人口不同的本地城市人身份认同对其家庭消费水平、家庭消费结构的影响。由于身份认同受到很多因素影响，具有内生性，因此我们在OLS基准回归之外，采用流动人口"本地话掌握水平"及"流出地土地面积"作为工具变量处理可能的内生性问题。我们也进行了替代变量的稳健性检验以及各种异质性检验。我们发现流动人口不同的身份认同程度对家庭消费水平、家庭消费结构有显著影响：更认同本地城市人身份的流动群体消费更高、恩格尔系数更低。同时，身份认同的消费影响在不同群体间存在一定异质性：这种效应对于年长的流动人口以及农村户籍流动人口更显著，这些异质性发现也符合预期。文章也进行了影响的可能机制检验，发现认可本地人身份的流动人口更倾向于在本地买房、长期工作生活和落户，减少在老家购房和生活的可能。研究结果对认识身份认同经济影响有一定学术价值；同时，文章的政策含义是，促进流动人口本地身份认同可以促进城市消费活力和居民生活质量。     

Leave behind or migrate? Evidence from a field experiment in China concerning the impact of being left behind/migrating status on children's behaviour and preferences

With the great economic and social development achieved in China in the past 40 years of reform and opening up has come the extensive flow of China's very large rural labour force between urban and rural areas and among regions, as well as populations of left-behind children and migrant children who cannot be ignored. In this paper, four populations—non-left-behind children in rural areas, left-behind children in rural areas, migrant children in urban areas, and local children in urban areas—were recruited in a large-scale field experiment that included the dictator game, ultimatum game, trust game, public goods game, coin-tossing task, intertemporal choice task, a calculation contest task, and a gambling task. Both being left behind and migrating had a negative effect on the children's prosocial behaviour (including fairness, trust, trustworthiness, cooperation, and honesty) and economic decision-making (including time and competition preferences). Moreover, the effect on migrant children was relatively greater, but this effect dissipated progressively as time since migration increased. Additionally, shorter migration distances were associated with a decreased effect of migration on migrant children, and having access to one parent had a positive effect on left-behind children.     

农民工社会保障体系的构建——以城乡统筹为视角

农民工是在我国工业化和城镇化进程中形成的一个特殊社会群体,他们在为城市繁荣和农村发展做出重大贡献的同时,却没有享受到应有的社会保障。本文从城乡统筹的视角,考察农民工社会保障的现状,深入剖析农民工社会保障权益缺失的原因,并提出在城乡统筹背景下,重新构建我国社会保障体系,从根本上打破城乡分立的二元社会保障结构,着力于建立全国统一、覆盖城乡居民、城乡和地区保障待遇有所差别的社会保障体系,以此一并解决农民工的社会保障问题。     

Rural-to-urban migration in China

"One consequence of economic reform in China has been the greatly accelerated migration of labour from rural areas to cities. Estimates suggest an annual migrant labour flow of around 50-60 million people, of whom 10-15 million have settled permanently in cities. This article surveys the information that has become available from a number of population and labour surveys. It covers the volume, spatial and temporal dimension of rural-to-urban migration, the characteristics of migrant labourers, the determinants of migration and the impact of migration on China's rural and urban economy."     

Perceptions of return migration and rural development: A case study of migrant views prior to the lifting of influx control measures∗

Until recently circulatory migration was entrenched in legislation controlling the influx control of labour to South African centres of employment. Research conducted among urban‐based male migrants in 1983/84 revealed that a majority held an ideal conception of migration which was consistent with the prescribed pattern of that period. Subjects’ projections of successful return migration was typically conservative rather than innovative or development‐oriented. However, research results intimated that landless migrants would contemplate deviation from the circular pattern of migration. The conclusion is drawn that South African labour migrancy may undergo a major shift in paradigm in future, particularly in areas where rural resources are overstressed. These conclusions gain new significance in the light of the recent abolition of influx control legislation.     

Why do migrant households consume so little?

Exploring data from the migrant and urban household surveys of the Chinese Household Income Project, this paper dissects the underlying causes of the depressing effect of the hukou system on migrant household consumption to two channels. On one hand, migrants' disentitlement to local urban hukou creates financial insecurity through barriers to employment, social welfare, medical insurance, etc., thereby encouraging precautionary saving. On the other hand, it promotes temporary migration, allows divergence in tastes and values from local urban residents to persist, and incentivizes migrant households to save their transitory income. Factors reflecting these two channels, such as medical and pension insurances, the duration of migration, and local homeownership, are specifically modeled, and they are found to contribute to the discrepancies in consumption between migrant and local urban households, among other factors. In addition, the marginal propensity to consume exhibits heterogeneity across migrant households; it is higher with a longer duration of migration, local homeownership, and self-employment. The lack of these attributes further reinforces the reluctance of migrant households to consume.