模糊实物期权方法在PPP项目价值评估中的应用

在投资、建设、运营和移交的过程中,PPP项目价值是利益各方关注的首要问题.在PPP项目全寿命期周期内,市场环境、政策以及决策者本身带来的不确定性都可能影响项目的价值,此类价值很难通过传统的评价方法计算,而需要借助实物期权的思想来获得.本文在相关研究的基础上,提出了基于模糊实物期权的PPP项目价值评估一般步骤:资料收集与整理、项目价值分析、实物期权界定与分析、项目价值计算、敏感性分析、得出结论.然后,推导出模糊实物期权价值计算模型,并应用于香港迪斯尼乐园二期项目实物期权价值评估,得出项目价值范围.最后对模型进行讨论,结果分析表明该项目价值受资产现值影响最大,建设、运营成本和建设时间次之.     

Real Option for Urban Rapid Rail Transit PPP Project

根据北京地铁4号线PPP项目遇到的实际问题构建模型,将实物期权理论引入解决车站停车场建设规模决策的问题.通过设计Excel表计算引入实物期权后不同方案的期望NPV,既解决了一般期权定价困难的问题,又将期权理论与PPP项目紧密结合,发现实物期权对于PPP项目决策过程的优化起到了非常明显的作用.特别是处理不确定性给PPP项目的谈判、决策、执行过程造成困难时,实物期权能够发挥更大的作用,可以作为决策者改善决策合理性的手段,也可以为公私双方化解核心矛盾取得一致意见提供有效帮助.     

矿业投资项目不确定性和实物期权分析

文章在分析矿业投资项目不确定性和对策的基础上，指出了传统的折现现金流法容易低估项目的价值的特点和实物期权理论的突破点——不确定性能创造价值，并通过案例实证了在不确定性条件下，实物期权优越于折现现金流法。     

基于价值权力的战略管理方法和模型

实物期权方法近年来在战略投资领域得到了广泛应用,但在战略管理领域中的应用却没有得到更进一步的发展。本文试图找到实现实物期权思想在战略管理领域更广泛应用的途径。通过扩展实物期权概念的内涵,本文引申出价值权力的概念,提出了基于价值权力进行战略分析和管理的思路,并进一步构建了进行价值权力分析和管理的直观工具,为在变化日益加速的不确定性环境下对企业战略进行全面的分析和管理提供了一个新的视角和相关模型。     

基于模糊实物期权的燃煤电厂CCS投资决策研究

为突破传统实物期权在 CCS 投资决策中未考虑非随机不确定性的不足, 本文将三角模糊数和二叉树期权模型相结合, 构建 CCS 投资决策的模糊实物期权模型框架, 并通过实证分析对模型和判断规则进行可靠性验证。 研究表明： （1） 模糊实物期权框架下的 CCS 投资价值受到左展形 α、 右展形 β 和置信水平 γ 的影响; （2） 当 0≤γ≤0.68 时, 投资决策需要考虑投资者的个人主观因素。 该方法更适应于灵活多变的投资环境, 尤其是像 CCS 投资这种政策依赖性强的商业活动。 对于无法用随机性刻画的不确定性因素, 投资者可以根据风险偏好、 管理经验和内外部消息对未来进行合理预估, 从而提高投资决策的准确性和有效性。     

实物期权整合模型在石油勘探开发项目中的应用

基于决策树和二叉树的整合模型是目前比较可行的一种实物期权定价方法。该方法把影响项目经济价值的所有不确定性分为两类——市场不确定性和技术不确定性。本文利用该方法对一个位于阿塞拜疆的实际石油项目进行了评价,识别出了对项目经济性具有较大影响的5个不确定性因素（输入变量）：油价、投产初期产量（Initial Production Rate）、递减率（Decline Rate）、总投资（CAPEX）和操作成本（Variable Cost）。通过分析,该项目可能存在多种实物期权。利用该整合模型并应用DPL软件建模估算了这一石油项目的扩张期权、放弃期权和复合期权的价值。     

实物期权在房地产投资决策中应用研究

房地产项目投资具有不可逆性、高度不确定性和管理的灵活性,运用传统的净现值法不能挖掘出项目投资的这些性质所带来的价值,而应用实物期权方法进行房地产投资决策研究,不仅考虑到了房地产投资的不确定性,还体现了投资决策者的柔性管理和战略投资的价值.文章分析了传统净现值法的一些不足,介绍了实物期权的基本理论,并采用了B-S期权定价模型对房地产投资决策过程中蕴含的增长期权进行了案例分析,使得房地产投资决策更加科学合理.     

包含多重复合实物期权的风险项目价值研究

实物期权估值方法能反映风险项目的机会价值和高度不确定性,但实际风险项目往往包含多个、多期的期权,各期权相互影响,不能简单相加,因而难以应用.文章通过蒙特卡罗模拟,实证研究了当风险项目包含复合多重实物期权时,其估值的一般方法.分析了包含一个扩张期权、一个复合交换型期权和一个普通复合期权的风险项目灵活性价值,并讨论了期权的相互作用和期权价值对变量的敏感性.     

实物期权法在油田经济评价中的应用综述

在油田领域,学者们对实物期权法的研究一方面集中于识别与构造油田勘探开发中的实物期权,另一方面集中于实物期权法在油田经济评价中的应用研究。国外学者在陆上油田投资、海上油田投资、油田开发时机的选择以及战略和风险投资领域对实物期权法的研究与应用方面作出了较大贡献。国内的研究机构和学者虽然进行了一些研究,但是实物期权法在国内油田勘探开发领域还没有得到足够的重视,针对油田具体实际情况进行实物期权法的应用研究很少。实物期权法在油田经济评价中的应用特点包括：重视对不确定性因素的研究,将风险评估与效益评价相结合,注重灵活性的价值,与其他方法结合使用。为了更好地在油田经济评价中应用实物期权法,需要全面推广实物期权的思想,建立一般意义上的实物期权模型,识别勘探开发项目中的实物期权,开发出简单实用的应用软件。     

基于实物期权方法的煤层气项目延迟投资决策研究

煤层气项目开发的过程中伴随着大量的随机因素,导致了项目开发的高度风险性和不确定性,而传统的投资决策方法(例DcF法)却忽略了项目所处环境的不确定性和管理灵活性所带来的投资机会价值.本文通过引入实物期权方法对煤层气项目的期权特性进行了分析,构建了基于延迟策略的煤层气项目投资决策模型,并通过案例分析说明了模型的应用,从而为煤层气项目开发的投资决策提供新的思路和方法.     

对发展房地产投资基金的SWOT分析

通过对房地产资金来源及我国房地产目前的融资途径分析,揭示了目前我国房地产存在的金融风险,指出发展房地产投资基金是一种可以拓宽房地产融资渠道的途径。结合当前我国房地产市场的实际情况,使用SWOT分析办法对房地产投资基金进行了综合研究。     

Equilibrium Real Options Exercise Strategies with Multiple Players: The Case of Real Estate Markets

This article derives a closed-form solution for an equilibrium real options exercise model with stochastic revenues and costs for monopoly, duopoly, oligopoly and competitive markets. Our model also allows one option holder to have a greater production capacity than others. Under a monopolistic environment we find that the optimal option exercise strategy in real estate markets is dramatically opposite to that in a financial (warrant) market, indicating the importance of paying attention to the institutional details of the underlying market when analyzing option exercise strategies. Our model can be generalized to the pricing of convertible securities and capital investment decisions involving both stochastic revenues and costs under different types of market structures.     

基于中国市场的房地产期权研究

面对日渐繁荣的中国房地产市场,房价涨幅过快、过高已经是一个不容回避的问题。房地产期权作为一种创新型投资理财工具,在欧美和亚洲金融衍生品市场几乎完全空白,能够有效对冲房价过快上涨的风险,改变中国购房者传统购房观念,间接缓解房地产价格过快上涨的压力。本文基于中国市场对以房地产价格为标的物的期权产品进行研究,以西安市房地产市场为例进行模拟分析,结果表明,房地产期权可以满足普通购房者对冲房价过快上涨的避险需求,转变传统购房观念,缓解短期购房压力,降低房地产市场的整体风险,在一定程度上促进房地产市场平稳有序的发展,具有十分显著的现实应用价值。     

对我国发展房地产投资信托的思考

我国房地产正出于飞速发展时期，巨大的投资需要造成了庞大的融资需求，而近来房地产信贷门槛的提高导致房地产融资成本提高。房地产行业迫切需要银行外的融资渠道，以解决开发和经营的资金问题。从房地产投资信托定义和基本原则入手，将房地产投资信托与其他融资方式进行比较，分析其优势，探讨其运营模式，并提出相关建议。     

Commercial Office Space: Testing the Implications of Real Options Models with Competitive Interactions

We test the implications of real option pricing models with competitive interactions for commercial real estate development. The competitive nature of a local commercial real estate market relies on a Herfindahl ratio derived from individual developers' shares of total office construction in their market. All else being equal, greater competition among local developers is associated with more building starts. Other variables suggested by the real options pricing model, including the volatility of local lease rates, are also found to be statistically important. In addition, we provide evidence consistent with greater competition attenuating the extent to which increases in volatility delay commercial real estate development.     

Toward a behavioral theory of real options: Noisy signals,bias, and learning

Research Summary: We develop a behavioral theory of real options that relaxes the informational and behavioral assumptions underlying applications of financial options theory to real assets. To do so, we augment real option theory's focus on uncertain future asset values (prospective uncertainty) with feedback learning theory that considers uncertain current asset values (contemporaneous uncertainty). This enables us to incorporate behavioral bias in the feedback learning process underlying the option execution/termination decision. The resulting computational model suggests that firms that inappropriately account for contemporaneous uncertainty and are subject to learning biases may experience substantial downside risk in undertaking real options. Moreover, contrary to the standard option result, greater uncertainty may decrease option value, making commitment to an investment path more effective than remaining flexible. Managerial Summary: Executives recognize the need to make uncertain investments to grow their business while mitigating downside risk. The analogy between financial options and real corporate investments provides an appealing method to consider the practical challenge of such investment decisions. Unfortunately, the “real options” analogy seems to break down in practice. We identify how a second form of uncertainty confounds real options intuition, leading managers to overestimate the value of uncertain investments. We present a behavioral real options model that accounts for both forms of uncertainty and suggest how uncertainty interacts with behavioral bias in the option execution/termination decision. Our model facilitates assessment of the conditions under which investments in uncertain opportunities are usefully considered as real options, and provides a means to evaluate their attractiveness.     

房地产投资风险管理

对房地产投资开发过程中所存在的各种风险进行了分析,运用数学和概率统计的知识,分析了衡量房地产投资风险大小的几种方法,并提出了针对各种潜在风险的规避与控制措施。     

浅析房地产开发企业融资方式之变革

中央人民银行出台《关于进一步加强房地产信贷业务管理的通知》，引发了房地产开发企业融资方式的变化，房地产开发企业应对当前融资环境变化，采取切实可行的融资渠道和资金运营方法，今后将成为主流房地产项目融资方式有：房地产信托投资、房地产企业上市、房地产基金、债券融资和住宅抵押贷款证券化等。     

Real options and real value: the role of employee incentives to make specific knowledge investments

Real options reasoning emphasizes the strategic value of making flexible investments in a turbulent environment. Employees' investments in specific human capital are often critical to the success of a real option project, but the very flexibility that allows a firm to change course in response to new information also affects employees' incentives to make such specific human capital investments. We develop a model of real option investment that explicitly incorporates the role of employee incentives. The model suggests that the effect of investing in a real option project on employee incentives may be positive, further increasing the value of the project, or negative, sometimes more than offsetting the benefit of flexibility and resulting in reduced project value. Therefore, firms and managers should take into consideration the role of employee incentives when applying real options logic to investment decision making. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

On Option-Pricing Models in Real Estate: A Critique

This paper considers the problems peculiar to options on real estate, because of the special set of institutional factors influencing real estate markets. It is intended to serve as a reply to Johnson and Wofford [15] as well as provide an overall critique of option-pricing models in a real estate context. Our major point is that a variety of real estate decisions, such as the abandonment decision, the option to refinance, or the option to exercise a contingent real estate purchase contract, may be modeled using option-pricing techniques. However, both the theoretical and institutional aspects of real estate markets must be taken into account in both developing and applying option models in a real estate context.