承销商分析师与非承销商分析师利益冲突比较研究

基于证券分析师首次发表的关于2006~2008年A股市场IPO股票的研究报告数据,运用非参数检验与多元回归分析方法,对我国证券分析师利益冲突行为进行实证分析。研究结果表明,承销商分析师与非承销商分析师均存在乐观倾向,而且承销商分析师的投资评级更为乐观;市场对于承销商分析师与非承销商分析师关注股票的反应并无显著差异,表明我国证券市场投资者并没有认识到分析师的利益冲突行为。     

Value of Multinationality: Internalization, Managerial Self-interest, and Managerial Compensation

In this paper, we examine the impact of managerial self-interest on the value of multinationality. Since agency theory also suggests that a divergence between the interests of managers and shareholders can be aligned by effective managerial incentive, we also examine the effect of managerial compensation on the value of multinationality. Our results show that for high- Q (Tobin's Q > 1 ) firms, investors do not associate the spending of free cash flow on multinationality with the problem of overinvestments. For high- Q firms, it is also found that the value of multinationality can be enhanced by effective managerial incentives. For low- Q firms (Tobin's Q < 1 ), it is found that the concern of managerial self-interest overwhelms the benefits of internalization, making multinationality a value-decreasing event. For low- Q firms, managerial compensation is also ineffective in promoting value-enhancing foreign direct investments.     

美国特许金融分析师认证体系分析

美国“特许金融分析师”(Chartered Financial Analyst，简称CFA)是一种金融投资从业专业资格认证。自从1962年1月，美国“投资管理与研究协会”(AIMR)，通过授予CFA称号来确认从业人员具有高级专业资格。美国投资管理研究协会(AIMR)的“特许金融分析师”认证体系值得我们借鉴。培养和认证中国高级金融分析师，将提高我国金融从业人员的整体素质，增强我国金融业在国际金融市场的竞争力。     

The Reluctant Analyst

We estimate the dynamics of recommendations by financial analysts, uncovering the determinants of inertia in their recommendations. We provide overwhelming evidence that analysts revise recommendations reluctantly, introducing frictions to avoid frequent revisions. More generally, we characterize the sources underlying the infrequent revisions that analysts make. Publicly available data matter far less for explaining recommendation dynamics than do the recommendation frictions and the long‐lived information that analysts acquire but the econometrician does not observe. Estimates suggest that analysts structure recommendations strategically to generate a profitable order flow from retail traders. We provide extensive evidence that our model describes how investors believe analysts make recommendations, and that investors value private information revealed by analysts' recommendations.     

Analyst Earnings Forecasts for Publicly Traded Insurance Companies

Several trends in the insurance and financial services industry, including demutualizationconsolidation, and deregulation, have attracted increasing attention from investors and financial analysts. This paper investigates the accuracy of the earnings forecasts of financial analysts for insurance companies. Our empirical results indicate that analyst forecasts outperform random walk time-series forecasts. Furthermore, we find that both disagreement over earnings forecasts among analysts and the relative forecasting error in the mean forecasts is smaller for life insurers than for property-casualty insurers, whereas the relative errors for forecasts for multiple-line insurers are in between the two. Forecasting error is a negative function of firm size and the number of analysts who are following a company, and is a positive function of the disagreement among analysts.Analyst forecasts have a timing advantage over the random walk model. Our results also suggest that the fair value reporting requirement (SFAS 115), which has been in effect since 1994, has enhanced the accuracy of analyst forecasts. The SFAS 115 has improved the superiority of analyst forecasts over the random walk forecasts for life insurers, but not for property-casualty insurers, and there is a weak improvement for multiple-line insurers. JEL Classification: G15     

The Effect of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act on Analyst Forecast Properties: The Impact of Firm Size and Growth Opportunities

Abstract:  We provide evidence that the effect of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act (the Act) of 1995 on analyst forecast properties is conditional on firm size and growth opportunities. We show that analyst coverage, frequency of forecast revisions, forecast errors and dispersion after the Act decreased for large firms and for firms with low growth opportunities but increased for small firms and for firms with high growth opportunities. These results are consistent with the hypothesis that the Act results in additional high quality disclosures in large firms, which face higher litigation risk and tighter scrutiny from investors but not in smaller firms. Our findings of increases in analyst coverage and revision but deterioration in accuracy and precision of analyst forecasts for firms with high growth opportunities after the Act suggest that in spite of increased corporate disclosures, the information environment for analysts deteriorated in those firms.     

The Disposition Effect and Underreaction to News

This paper tests whether the “disposition effect,” that is the tendency of investors to ride losses and realize gains, induces “underreaction” to news, leading to return predictability. I use data on mutual fund holdings to construct a new measure of reference purchasing prices for individual stocks, and I show that post‐announcement price drift is most severe whenever capital gains and the news event have the same sign. The magnitude of the drift depends on the capital gains (losses) experienced by the stock holders on the event date. An event‐driven strategy based on this effect yields monthly alphas of over 200 basis points.     

Analyst Following and Equity Offerings Subsequent to Initial Public Offerings

Analyst forecast information is collected for firms following their IPOs and is used in an examination of subsequent seasoned equity offerings (SEOs). Consistent with information asymmetry arguments, the analysis indicates that a larger percentage of firms conducting SEOs within three years of the IPO are covered by financial analysts than those without SEOs, and that analyst coverage is a significant predictor of subsequent SEOs. In addition, the results indicate that long-term earnings growth forecasts are larger for firms with subsequent SEOs, but growth forecasts decline significantly following the SEOs. Further, SEO abnormal returns exhibit a significant negative relationship with earnings growth forecasts. These results are consistent with windows of opportunity arguments since they suggest that SEOs are timed to coincide with the peak of earnings growth expectations, but that market participants compensate by reacting more negatively to offerings by firms with high growth forecasts.     

谁更关心关键审计事项:管理层还是分析师

学术界对披露关键审计事项能否提高审计报告的信息含量展开了大量的研究,但主要集中于对股票市场信息传递的探讨,鲜有文献从管理层行为的角度考察披露关键审计事项对资本市场的影响。本文利用新审计报告的过渡期设定,以实施新审计报告准则对分析师预测准确度的影响为切入点,考察了披露关键审计事项究竟是作为增量信息改进分析师预测,还是作为监督压力抑制管理层迎合分析师预测的行为。研究结果支持监督效应,但这种监督效应存在局部性和补充性,即只能对管理层在薪酬激励较低和权力受到制衡的情境下发挥作用;且仅能对管理层在审计质量较低、利润操纵事项难以分辨的情境下发挥补充监督作用。这些结论为监管者和政策制定者完善审计准则提供了些许借鉴。     

外商直接投资对我国经济安全的影响

随着经济全球化的不断发展,国家经济安全已经同国家政治安全、国家军事安全一样在国家安全战略中占据主导地位.目前,经济安全已经成为各国关注的焦点.本文主要从资源安全、产业安全、金融安全三个方面研究了外商直接投资对我国经济安全的影响.我国近年来的经济增长、吸引外资等居于领先地位,但经济安全并未相应提升.因此,我国政府当局应该重视经济安全问题,探索新的经济发展模式,确保国家经济安全.     

Investor and (Value Line) Analyst Underreaction to Information about Future Earnings: The Corrective Role of Non-Earnings-Surprise Information

Prior research suggests that financial analysts' earnings forecasts and stock prices underreact to earnings news. This paper provides evidence that analysts and investors correct this underreaction in response to the next earnings announcement and to other (non-earnings-surprise) information available between earnings announcements. Our evidence also suggests that analysts and investors underreact to information reflected in analysts' earnings forecast revisions and that non-earnings-surprise information helps correct this underreaction as well. Controlling for corrective non-earnings-surprise information significantly increases estimates of the degree to which analysts' forecasting behavior can explain drifts in returns following both earnings announcements and analysts' earnings forecast revisions.     

Public Predisclosure Information, Firm Size, Analyst Following, and Market Reactions to Earnings Announcements

Abstract:   This study examines the effects of public predisclosure information on market reactions to earnings announcements. We develop an empirical measure of public predisclosure information impounded in price prior to earnings announcements by cumulating abnormal returns on public news release dates during the quarter. Consistent with prior literature, we document a negative association between this measure and market reactions to subsequent earnings announcements. Moreover, we find that after controlling for this measure, firm size and analyst following are significantly positively associated with market reactions to earnings announcements. Contrary to prior empirical evidence, our results suggest that, after controlling for actual predisclosure information impounded in price, market reactions to earnings announcements are greater in magnitude for larger, more widely-followed firms than for smaller, less widely-followed firms.     

Relationship Between Analyst Forecast Properties and Equity Bid‐Ask Spreads and Depths Around Quarterly Earnings Announcements

Abstract:   We study the relationships between three variables which proxy for the ex‐ante level of information asymmetry – forecast dispersion, forecast revision volatility, and the level of analyst coverage, and equity bid‐ask spread and depth changes around quarterly earnings releases. Kim and Verrecchia (1994) suggest that earnings releases increase the level of information asymmetry and lower the level of liquidity in the security market. Using both an OLS regression framework and a simultaneous equations model, we examine whether equity bid‐ask spreads increase and depths decrease as the level of information asymmetry increases. Our results indicate that spreads are higher (relative to a non‐event period) around earnings announcements when information asymmetry is more pronounced; however, depths are lower only on the day following the announcement when there is greater information asymmetry. Relative spreads have a significant positive relation with both forecast dispersion and revision volatility and a significant negative relation with analyst coverage. Relative depths have a significant negative relation with forecast dispersion and a significant positive relation with analyst coverage. Our findings indicate that the equity specialist adjusts both spreads and depths when confronting informed traders around earnings releases and that these adjustments are more pronounced when the level of information asymmetry is greater.     

论社保资金进入证券市场的意义与途径

国企改革的作用越来越被人们所认识，巨大的社会保障支出要求寻找提高社会资金管理效率、使社保资金保值增值的途径。按照国际惯例，社保资金可以由政府控制的中央基金机构管理，也可以交给专业基金管理公司管理。不论采取哪一种管理方式，社保资金进入证券市场都是最有效的途径之一，社保资金进入证券市场不仅实现自身的保值增值还可促进证券市场的健康发展。     

农民工社会保障对劳动力流动的影响

随着社会经济的快速发展,农民工群体规模不断扩大,流动劳动力已经成为一个特殊的社会群体,其社会保障问题日益凸显。原有的城乡分割、区别对待的社会保障制度,已经严重影响到劳动力流动的行为和方式,阻碍了城市化及农民工市民化的进程。本文主要从工伤保险、医疗保险、养老保险、失业保险、生育保险等五个方面来分析目前农民工的社会保障现状以及社会保障对农村劳动力流动迁移的影响。     

Improving the Precision of Analysts' Earnings Forecasts by Adjusting for Predictable Bias

This research demonstrates that publicly-available information can be used to develop estimates of analysts' optimistic bias in earnings forecasts. These bias estimates can be used to produce more accurate forecasts, resulting in significant reductions of both cross-sectional mean forecast error and error variance. When bias estimates are based on past observations of forecast error alone, however, reductions in mean forecast error are smaller, and forecast precision is unimproved. Further tests provide evidence of a significant association between returns and the bias predictable from contemporaneously-available information, suggesting that predictable bias is only partially discounted by market participants. This study has significant implications for researchers and investors. The pricing of predictable bias in analysts' forecasts may add error toinferences which are based on the association between returns and analyst forecast errors, and knowledge of the market's partial discounting of predictable bias may help investors to make more efficient resource allocations.     

关于当前社会保险重大问题的研究

覆盖城乡的社会保障制度体系的基本建立,是我国改革开放以来经济社会发展取得的重大成就,但距离制度的完善还任重道远。本文指出当前社保制度改革中还存在诸如不同制度保障水平差距较大、基金支付压力大、基金统筹层次低、缴费负担重等重大问题,在对问题成因认真分析的基础上,提出今后改革的方向是以增强公平性、适应流动性、保证可持续性为重点,并提出完善基本养老保险制度模式、加快提高社会保险统筹层次、鼓励发展补充性养老保险和医疗保险、提高基金投资效率、将财政投入作为养老保险基金的稳定筹资来源、取消基本医疗保险最高支付限额等具体政策建议。     

社会保障"费"改"税"的制度性约束

面对养老保险费征收困难以及未来养老保险资金缺口大的状况,许多学者、研究人员和实际工作者提出实行社会保障"费"改"税",开征社会保障税,确保社保资金按时足额上缴,化解未来的社会保障收支缺口.社会保障税能否在我国实行是一个需要研究和探讨的课题,本文从"费"和"税"的征收原理和我国现行的社会保障制度出发,探讨了我国目前开征社会保障税的制度性约束,并就目前的困境提出了解决问题的政策建议.