商业银行信用风险管理模式研究

现代信贷风险管理模式是以信息技术、定量分析技术以及衍生产品为主要工具支持,以现代资产组合管理理论为理论基础,形成现代信贷风险管理的资产组合管理模型,实施组合信贷风险管理,进而构建现代商业银行信贷风险管理模式.     

浅析商业银行信贷风险管理

针对信贷风险的复杂特征，按照比较完善的市场风险管理模型方法可以构建现代信贷风险管理模型。在信息系统和内部风险评级逐步完善、信用衍生工具广泛使用的前提下，可以引入现代资产组合管理理论的思想、方法与技术。实施信贷风险管理的资产组合管理，进而构建现代商业银行信贷风险管理模式。     

商业银行贷款组合的风险控制研究

商业银行经营管理的核心是收益与风险的权衡,对贷款进行组合多样化管理,可以达到分散风险的目的,而单项贷款违约模型的确定是贷款组合多样化的基础。本文基于期权模型讨论了商业银行的贷款组合问题,认为在商业银行贷款管理中引入期权概念,可以定量地利用成熟的期权理论进行分析研究,为多样化分析提供较为准确的量度方法。     

基于Credit Metrics模型的商业银行信贷风险的度量

信贷风险是商业银行最主要的信用风险,而信贷风险度量是信贷风险管理的核心环节。文章首先分析了国内信贷风险度量背景,进一步全面介绍Credit Metrics模型的理论原理和操作步骤,最后与现行传统模型与其进行对比,提出要发展信用评级体系,加快利率市场化,完善信贷风险管理制度,排除Credit Metrics模型在我国运行的阻碍。     

贷款风险等级分类的设计、质量管理与应用研究

贷款风险等级分类法是当前国际上商业银行信贷风险管理的主流分类方法。在新巴塞尔资本协议的框架下 ,研究比较国际贷款风险等级分类的设计和质量管理 ,以提高贷款风险等级分类在专项准备金计提、资本充足率计算、贷款定价、贷款政策制定和信贷风险预警等方面的应用水平     

我国商业银行信贷风险管理

随着我国金融行业不断发展,商业银行从部门设置、业务范围、从业人员以及服务对象等方面都有了很大调整。而贷款业务仍然构成目前商业银行的主要利润,信贷风险则也相应成为了商业银行需要关注的问题。为了使信贷风险管理更加全面化,怎样提高信贷风险的管理能力是商业银行面临的重要挑战。本文首先着重分析了商业银行进行信贷风险管理的必要性以及目前信贷风险管理中存在的问题;其次从人才队伍建设、信贷风险识别、评估、建立健全信贷风险管理制度以及内部监督机制等方面给出了商业银行如何提高信贷风险管理能力的建议。     

财务危机预警系统在商业银行信贷风险管理中的应用

目前,商业银行信贷风险管理中财务分析存在的贷款企业资料不真实、现金流量没得到应有重视、财务分析手段不丰富等主要问题,都会引发财务危机。在信贷风险管理中应用财务危机预警系统,通过对上市公司运营因子、盈利因子、偿债因子、成长因子、现金流量因子、规模因子、行业因子、股权集中度因子的分析,能够及时发现企业可能带来的危机影响。商业银行应准确合理地选择财务危机预警指标,为信贷风险管理提供强有力的依据;建立财务危机预警模型应在会计信息真实完整的基础上,通过对会计信息进行加工、处理来完成。     

小微企业信贷风险管理

小微企业已经成为国民经济发展过程中不可或缺的组成部分。但是在其发展过程中由于市场风险、管理风险和道德风险,导致小微企业存在着信用评价体系缺失、市场准入机制缺失、贷款流向管理不严以及风险预警机制欠缺等信贷风险问题。因此商业银行应该根据小微企业的特点建立一套信贷风险的防范和规避机制,做好贷款的贷前、贷中和贷后风险预警机制,从而有效的避免信贷风险发生,使小微企业和商业银行实现利益的最大化。     

商业银行信贷风险管理的经济学分析及相关问题的探讨

信贷风险管理是商业银行风险管理的主要组成部分,我国商业银行目前信贷风险管理现状还存在不少问题,本文利用不对称信息理论作为分析工具,对商业银行信贷风险管理的形成机理进行了探讨,并针对信贷风险管理的目标提出了完善商业银行信贷风险管理的建议,以期提高商业银行信贷风险管理的水平。     

我国商业银行信贷风险的博弈分析

在信贷市场中,商业银行与企业的信息不对称现象较为严重,这大大降低了信贷市场的交易效率,造成信贷风险的不断增加.本文采用信号传递博弈模型对信贷过程中贷款企业信息传递的真实性进行了分析,指出了信贷风险产生的根源,并对降低信贷风险提出了对策.     

Customer and Supplier Portfolios: Can Credit Risks be Managed Through Supply Chain Relationships?

While supply chain risk has been the subject of an ever‐increasing amount of research attention, the importance of credit risk has been less studied, at least by supply chain researchers. Yet, there may be risks inherent within a firm's portfolios of supply chain relationships that are manifested in the credit risk of a firm. Moreover, portfolio characteristics may serve as a signal to the external market regarding these risks. While customer and supplier portfolio characteristics may impact the firm's exposure to risks, the specific issue of how portfolio characteristics relate to credit risk has rarely been examined by supply chain scholars. This research bridges extant works in supply chain management and finance to relate supply chain characteristics to a critical reputational outcome, namely credit ratings. In this research, we utilize a sample of firms that recently underwent an initial public offering to empirically examine the theoretical predictions of Resource Dependence Theory regarding the relationships between different supply chain portfolio characteristics and credit risk.     

Credit lender–borrower relationship in the credit card market – Implications for credit risk management strategy and relationship marketing

Lehman Brothers filed for bankruptcy in 2008, precipitating the international financial crisis. Many questioned the banks’ risk-taking credit system. Understanding credit risk and how the credit system functions may provide knowledge on managing credit, to avoid another such international crisis. We study the credit card field and present a pricing decision model for managing credit risk. Recent credit lenders’ portfolio re-pricing practices call for immediate attention to the credit lender–borrower relationship and relationship marketing. A literature review and recent phenomena in the credit card industry reveal that the lenders’ re-pricing strategy negatively affects the credit lender–borrower relationship and relationship marketing. Thus, we introduce a pricing decision model incorporating the lenders’ re-pricing strategy and the credit lender–borrower relationship. Further, we discuss the implications of, and the role of marketing in, credit risk management and the implications of relationship marketing for credit lenders in foreign markets, including the US market.     

LARGE DEVIATIONS IN MULTIFACTOR PORTFOLIO CREDIT RISK

The measurement of portfolio credit risk focuses on rare but significant large-loss events. This paper investigates rare event asymptotics for the loss distribution in the widely used Gaussian copula model of portfolio credit risk. We establish logarithmic limits for the tail of the loss distribution in two limiting regimes. The first limit examines the tail of the loss distribution at increasingly high loss thresholds; the second limiting regime is based on letting the individual loss probabilities decrease toward zero. Both limits are also based on letting the size of the portfolio increase. Our analysis reveals a qualitative distinction between the two cases: in the rare-default regime, the tail of the loss distribution decreases exponentially, but in the large-threshold regime the decay is consistent with a power law. This indicates that the dependence between defaults imposed by the Gaussian copula is qualitatively different for portfolios of high-quality and lower-quality credits.     

TRANSFORM ANALYSIS FOR POINT PROCESSES AND APPLICATIONS IN CREDIT RISK

This paper develops a formula for a transform of a vector point process with totally inaccessible arrivals. The transform is expressed in terms of a Laplace transform under an equivalent probability measure of the point process compensator. The Laplace transform of the compensator can be calculated explicitly for a wide range of model specifications, because it is analogous to the value of a simple security. The transform formula extends the computational tractability offered by extant security pricing models to a point process and its applications, which include valuation and risk management problems arising in single‐name and portfolio credit risk.     

基于信用风险修正的多阶段银行贷款组合优化决策模型

针对银行的信用风险和贷款的周期性等问题,建立一个基于信用风险修正的多阶段银行贷款组合优化决策模型,该模型在多阶段模型中考虑了信用风险修正问题,根据模型的特点给出了把Monte Carlo模拟的动态算法和差分进化的多阶段算法相结合的求解方法,前者求解银行各类贷款的期望收益率,后者求解每一阶段银行对各类贷款的最优投资比重。数值试验表明所建立的模型是合理的且符合商业银行的实际操作要求,给出的方法是有效的和可行的。     

基于COPULA-EVT的利率衍生品风险管理

监管层提出对＂系统重要性银行＂和＂非系统重要性银行＂进行分类管理的思路,表明在强化宏观审慎监管过程中,微观个体宏观审慎经营行为仍然起着重要的作用。新巴塞尔协议对于银行信用风险的监控和计量有了更加严格的规定,然而对于涉及到衍生品的市场风险只是强调银行要根据自身的交易业务进行合理评估,这样便使得衍生品的市场风险成为了银行整体风险中最不稳定的因素。本文基于极值分布、Copula连接函数和蒙特卡洛模拟理论,获得商业银行包括利率期货、利率期权、利率互换在内的单个利率衍生品的风险度量指标,如VaR,CVaR,EVA,RAROC,EC,并得到衍生品组合的风险度量指标,这些指标可以帮助商业银行更加清晰地了解自身的潜在风险。同时,商业银行在给定风险容忍度VaR下能得到各种衍生产品的最优配置,从而为银行的投资决策提供参考。     

Robust XVA

We introduce an arbitrage‐free framework for robust valuation adjustments. An investor trades a credit default swap portfolio with a risky counterparty, and hedges credit risk by taking a position in defaultable bonds. The investor does not know the exact return rate of her counterparty's bond, but she knows it lies within an uncertainty interval. We derive both upper and lower bounds for the XVA process of the portfolio, and show that these bounds may be recovered as solutions of nonlinear ordinary differential equations. The presence of collateralization and closeout payoffs leads to important differences with respect to classical credit risk valuation. The value of the super‐replicating portfolio cannot be directly obtained by plugging one of the extremes of the uncertainty interval in the valuation equation, but rather depends on the relation between the XVA replicating portfolio and the closeout value throughout the life of the transaction. Our comparative statics analysis indicates that credit contagion has a nonlinear effect on the replication strategies and on the XVA.     

Beyond the Retail Store: An Evaluation of Goods Acquisition Practices in British Deprived Urban Neighbourhoods

All major credit card issuers, to a greater or lesser extent, are holding a portfolio consisting of three types of credit card holder: (i) non-active card holders; (ii) non-interest paying active card holders; and (iii) interest paying active card holders. This article, using two quantitative techniques more commonly associated with credit risk management or credit scoring, is concerned with identifying the characteristics of active card holders with the greatest propensity to revolve (i.e. pay interest). The sample consists of 27,681 bank credit card holders who had held and used their card in the 14 month sample period. Data was available on 313 socio-demographic and behavioural variables for which, a priori, there was good reason to include so as to discriminate between users who paid interest on their outstanding balances (i.e. revolvers) and those who did not. The main result of this research is that the most important discriminating variables are derived from the card holder's behaviour (i.e. cash advances, minimum payment due, interest paid in previous periods). This result is derived from and supported by the two competing techniques used for the analysis: Linear Discriminant Analysis and Logistic Regression.     

关于完善我国外汇储备管理的对策研究

自从境外要求人民币升值以来,国际投机资本通过贸易、单方面转移等渠道大量进入我国。我国外汇储备的巨大存量和快速增长趋势,一方面提高了我国的信用等级和偿付能力,另一方面也给经济带来了负面影响。我国的外汇储备应采取转变国际储备管理的传统理念、根据外汇储备的需求动机实施多层次管理、加快完善与汇率相关的各种配套制度、转变经济增长方式、分化市场对人民币汇率走势的预期等措施完善外汇储备管理。     

Consumer behaviour in the credit card market: a banking case study

This paper analysed the demographic, socio‐economic and banking‐specific determinants that influence the choice of credit cards. A multinomial logit model was run on a recent portfolio of banking customers based in Italy. The model incorporates the type of credit cards as the dependent variable and a set of explanatory variables. The empirical results provided useful insight into the structural characteristics of the card payment system and offered a microeconomics perspective to analyse consumers' behaviour and preferences. Overall, women, older people, residents in the centre of Italy and secondary card owners are more likely to acquire a classic card. Gold cards are preferred by older customers, whereas younger clients have a higher probability to choose a revolving card, which is also preferred by the residents in the North‐east. The analysis on the continuous variables highlighted that Italy can be regarded as a ‘conservative’ market with room for credit card upgrading and expansion into more sophisticated products.