桩基检测整体评价问题探讨

以桩基工程的重要性及可靠度为核心，从设计、施工、监理、检测各方面探讨了桩基质量存在的隐患，运用概率论，结合社会发展、经济现状，对桩基检测数量与方式提出新观点。     

浅议自学考试课程内容优化的必要性——以经管类概率论与数理统计课程为例

《概率论与数理统计(经管类)》是经济管理类各专业(本科段)的一门重要的公共课程,是为培养各种与经济和管理有关的人才而设置的。根据自学考试的特性和需要,概率论与数理统计课程内容优化应与教育的发展同步。     

财经类概率论与数理统计教学方法研究

概率论与数理统计是一门应用性较强的数学学科,与其他学科相比,往往让学生感到难学,因此,教师如能在教学中运用良好的教学方法,减轻学生对数学的畏惧心理,教会学生思维方法,对提高学生的理解和分析问题的能力,是非常重要的。本文以概率论与数理统计的教学实践为基础,对财经类该课程的教学方法进行了探讨。     

大数据分析中概率论与数理统计的应用探究

随着现代化信息技术的发展，各项信息数字化，已经成为人们分析行业发展情况、了解市场需求的一个主要途径。在大数据对社会生产与人们生活不断影响的背景下，如何在发展环境与信息多变的情况下，准确分析各项数据，获得有效数据信息成为相关人员关注重点。而将概率论与数理统计运用到大数据分析中，不仅可以提升数据分析有效性，也可以避免数据不准确带来的一些问题。基于此，本文主要对大数据分析中概率论与数理统计运用方式进行研究。     

基于客流和消费水平随机变化的社区服务网点规模及盈利条件分析

基于影响服务网点利润的客流量和消费水平两个随机因素进行分析,运用概率论相关理论,给出了服务网点销售额和利润的概率分布,由此确定投资规模及盈利条件。     

马尔可夫链评估法在现代人才职业培训质量评价中的运用

一、数据分析的理论依据 马尔可夫链评估法是一种以概率论和随机过程理论为基础,运用随机数学模型来分析现实动态系统的状态和状态转移情况的一种统计方法.     

经济计量学的伟大革命者哈维尔莫

特里夫．哈维尔莫（Trygve Haavelmo,1911-1999)教授是挪威经济学家，由于他在阐明概率论作为经济计量学的基础以及对联立经济结构分析方面的贡献而于1989年获得诺贝尔经济学奖。     

统计软件在《概率论与数理统计》教学中的应用

分析了统计软件应用到《概率论与数理统计》教学中的优点，举例介绍了SPSS软件在《概率论与数理统计》教学中的应用，说明了统计软件应用于《概率论与数理统计》教学的可行性。     

基于复合分布需求模型的库存管理的研究

运用概率论相关理论,针对需求量为离散和连续的两类情况,深入研究了一般复合分布的需求模型;基于矩母函数特性,给出了需求总量的分布形式及库存最优解的算法;并结合实例,将其应用于库存管理决策问题中。     

关于对统计推断中抽样分布的总结及判别

数理统计是一门以概率论为理论基础,研究随机现象统计规律性的数学学科。在经济全球化和信息化的今天,经济、管理等学科领域越来越侧重数理统计的应用,尤其是在大数据时代下,统计数据浩如烟海,数理统计的地位就更加凸显。随着社会的发展,推断统计已经取代传统的描述统计,成为现代统计的核心,而抽样分布作为统计推断的开篇内容,同时也是连结概率论与数理统计的桥梁,因此在统计推断中占据重要地位。本文主要对统计推断中常用的抽样分布及其应用作总结,并结合例题对统计量的抽样分布作出合理地判别。     

TOWARDS AN ALGORITHMIC REVOLUTION IN ECONOMIC THEORY

Abstract This is an attempt to tell a coherent story of a possible path towards an algorithmic revolution in economic theory, based on foundational debates in mathematics. First, by exposing the non‐computational content of classical mathematics, and its foundations, it is shown that both set theory and the tertium non datur can be dispensed with, as foundational concepts. Next, then, as a natural sequel, it follows that every kind of economic theory that bases its theoretical underpinning on classical mathematics can be freed from these foundations and can be made naturally algorithmic. This will make the subject face, in an all pervasive way, absolutely (algorithmically) undecidable decision problems. The thrust of the path towards an algorithmic revolution in economics lies, then, in pointing out that only a radically new mathematical vision of microeconomics, macroeconomics, behavioural economics, game theory, dynamical systems theory and probability theory can lead us towards making economic theory a meaningfully applied science and free of mysticism and subjectivism.     

Stable processes of exchange

In this paper we address a long standing gap in economic theory—the gap between claims for the dynamic efficiency of trading in markets, and the findings of formal economic theory, which justify those claims only under restrictive assumptions. We use agent-based methods to study the dynamics of exchange with trading agents who are characterized by several different preference relations. We see that outcomes converge with high probability to Pareto optima in the cases studied, including the well-known example due to Scarf.     

How an Economic Recession Affects Qualitative Entrepreneurship: Focusing on the Entrepreneur's Exit Decision

This study analyzes how an economic recession affects entrepreneurship from a qualitative perspective. We define entrepreneur as a person who takes risks under uncertainty. Based on this definition, an entrepreneur's exit decision is modeled using real options theory to measure entrepreneur's willingness to accept uncertainty. We find that entrepreneurs who entered before a recession exit when their critical revenue stream reaches 0.16 times the average revenue stream value. The equivalent value for entrepreneurs who enter during an economic recession is 0.33 times the average revenue stream. Furthermore, when uncertainty doubles, the exit probability of entrepreneurs who enter during an economic recession is approximately 2.75 times higher than that of entrepreneurs who enter before recession. We conclude that the majority of entrepreneurs who enter during an economic recession are qualitatively disadvantaged, which leads to the overall decrease in qualitative entrepreneurship. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

An empirical test of a decision theory model for entrepreneurial acts

A decision theory model is presented where the decision to start a firm is assumed to be a rational economic decision of a utility maximizer. The model is tested using data for business births in 82 Mississippi counties over the period 1979-1987. Results of the aggregated model are encouraging but suggest that the alternative to a risky venture is not riskless wage labour. Rather, wage labour also carries a risk which is important in determining whether to start a business. The results indicate that there is a strong economic motivation in entrepreneurial ventures which must be considered in addition to psychological factors. The model suggests that encouragement of entrepreneurial ventures can be based upon lowering thc costs of start-ups and policies that increase the probability of success.     

Technologies of trust: actuarial theory,insurance sciences,and the establishment of the welfare state in Germany and Switzerland around 1900

The article analyzes the relation between transformations in information systems and changing forms of organization. Drawing on a historical case study, it examines the rise of actuarial theory in Germany and Switzerland around 1900 and its significance for the emergence of the first modern social insurances. So far, the history of actuarial theory has been written as the social history of the actuarial profession or the epistemic history of probability calculus. By examining the political and economic contexts of the history of actuarial theory, the article also discusses the notion of an “insurance society”. The argument concludes that Foucauldian interpretations of actuarial theory as a technology of power and a condition of modern governmentality are too monistic and should be specified. The article suggests to use the concept of a “technology of trust” to interpret the integrative power of actuarial theory in a political field marked by deep antagonisms.     

Het Indian Statistical Institute te Calcutta Organisatie en werkprogramma

The Indian Statistical Institute at Calcutta.
After an introductory statement on the organisation of official statistics in India the author describes the various departments of the Indian Statistical Institute, and its contributions to the development of sampling methods, in mathematical statistics and theory of probability, biometrics, psychometrics, statistical quality control, demography and economic development planning. The Institute occupies a leading position in India as a national and international centre of statistical research and training at very advanced levels.     

Catastrophe Theory: Implications for Probability

ABSTRACT The work of Rene Thom relating to catastrophe theory has influenced probability theory Since so much of the research conducted by social scientists depends on calculating the probability that events will occur, an introduction to catastrophe theory is needed By discussing the social implications of the position outlined by Thom, social scientists will better understand the difficulties associated with generating probability statements     

News,disaster risk,and time-varying uncertainty

Standard real business cycle models are often unable to replicate three empirical facts: positive output in response to good news, stochastic volatility of macro variables, and asymmetric business cycles. This paper proposes a unified basis for understanding these facts in a tractable dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model, in which the key is the interaction of information flows and disaster risk. Information flows fluctuate between two regimes with different precision levels for signals regarding future economic fundamentals. A shift in forecast precision changes the probability of entering an economic disaster. High disaster risk leads to low expected capital returns and a decline in hours, investment, and output. Changing information structures results in different volatility and skewness over the business cycle. Simple theory makes the two expectation effects through information flows and disaster risk transparent. Quantitatively, the model suggests that the interaction of the two expectation effects plays a significant role in accounting for the higher-order moments of the business cycle.     

高等数学在经济中的应用

高等数学在经济研究中起着基础性作用,只有学好高等数学才能更好的理解剖析经济现象掌握经济知识。本文主要用数学分析、常微分方程、高等代数、概率与数理统计等课程的相关知识来说明高等数学在经济中的应用。