The Seller's Perspective on Determinants of Acquisition Likelihood: Insights from China's Beer Industry

This study investigates acquisition antecedents during China's transition from a planned to a market‐based economic system. Because of contextual realities such as a lack of freely tradable targets for buyers, the seller's willingness to sell is critical for acquisition occurrence in transition economies. We therefore take the seller's perspective and examine factors underlying firms' willingness to sell. We posit that selling is a decision based on the evaluation of a firm's prospects determined by its embeddedness within the planned system, organizational changes it undertook during the transition, and its ability to adjust its strategy according to the evolving strengths of the planning and marketing institutions. Data from the Chinese beer industry from 1995 to 2004 show that acquisition likelihood is high for firms founded as SOEs, low for firms having attracted more private investment or undertaken multiple changes, and has a U‐shaped relationship with firms' relative investment in marketing resources.     

The mid-life crisis of the American labor movement

Although the US labor movement remains an important part of the nation's organized economic and political life it is now struggling to reverse its decline in power and membership. In this article the author identifies factors explaining this decline and its implications for American labor. This contribution continues the debate begun by Michael Piore in Vol 17 No 3 Autumn 1986.     

北京R&D投入与经济增长的灰色关联分析

随着科技投入的加大,R&D投入也越来越被人们所重视。R&D投入不仅对所在区域科技与经济发展具有重要作用,而且对整个国家的科技与经济发展都具有推动作用。本文运用北京2001~2011年R&D经费投入与经济增长的有关数据变量进行灰色关联分析,并根据不同结构建立了相应模型,揭示了北京R&D经费投入与经济增长的关系。     

我国新能源投资的“冷”思考

能源经济革命已经成为引领各国走出经济衰退的新引擎和未来能源发展的新动向。发展新能源成为缓解能源危机、改善现有能源结构的重要途径。文章通过分析我国新能源投资的特点、存在的风险和问题,提出了相应的建议,旨在提高新能源投资的效益和效率。     

浅谈交通工程建设项目投资控制与管理

本文从现阶段我国交通工程建设项目特色出发,结合工程各环节投资管控需求,联系客观实际,就现阶段我国交通工程建设项目投资管控问题进行深入探讨,列举出行之有效的提升投资管控力度方法,希望能为交通工程实现各项资源优化合理配置,进一步节省工程造价成本、获取经济效益最大化奠定坚实的基础。     

Racial Fractionalization and School Performance

The literature on racial “peer effects” suggests that diversity improves at least some students' school performance. However, a literature in economic development posits that diversity may negatively affect school performance by undermining the efficient provision of education. This article empirically tests this claim, which we call the “public goods channel,” by examining the relationship between racial diversity and student performance in Ohio's school districts. We find that moving from a completely homogenous school district to one in which two racial groups have equal population shares is associated with a 7–17.5 percentage point decline in the passage rate on the state math exam, holding per pupil spending across districts constant. These results suggest that racial diversity is negatively associated with school performance but that the public goods channel is not responsible for this relationship.     

WORKERS' COMPENSATION COSTS AND REGIONAL GROWTH DYNAMICS*

This paper attempts to gauge the effect of workplace regulation, against the background of other influences, on the increasing or decreasing competitive advantage of particular regions relative to the nation. We employ two measures of regional growth. The first is the differential rate of investment growth across states between 1978 and 1984. The results for output growth show that states both in the South and outside the South stand to lose their competitive edge in manufacturing activity from rising unit labor cost and energy cost. Rising taxes hurt industrial activity in the North but are not critical in the South. Agglomeration economies that benefit the North, apparently have no detrimental effect in the South. Rising workers' compensation cost is significant in the decline in southern competitiveness; it is not in the North. Both regions enhance their competitive position when local markets grow. For regional manufacturing investment, we find that unit labor cost and energy cost have no significant effect on the competitive position of states in the South. However, taxes and workers' compensation costs hurt investment opportunities in South.     

ECONOMICS,RELIGION AND THE DECLINE OF EUROPE1

This article asks whether there is any casual connection between the contemporaneous decline in industriousness and religiosity in Europe over the past 25 years. In the United States working hours and levels of religious faith and observance have held steady or even increased over this period. But in most European countries they have declined together. Could this be a posthumous vindication of Max Weber's thesis about the Protestant work ethic and the rise of capitalism? Though there clearly are some important links between religion and economic behaviour, the article concludes that the evidence does not perfectly fit Weber's theory, which emphasised abstinence rather than consumption as a determinant of economic development.     

房地产投资对内蒙古经济增长影响的实证分析

本文基于区域经济,利用历次经济普查资料,以经济均衡增长为目标,量化了房地产业与内蒙古国民经济发展的关系,得到的结论是:长期而言,房地产开发投资每提高1个百分点,GDP平均提高1.88个百分点;短期而言,二者呈现反向修正机制关系,即上期房地产开发投资增长速度若低于人均GDP水平,则本期房地产开发投资进程的推进速度将略显加快,反之亦然。     

固网运营企业投资规模决策研究

建设项目投资规模的设计直接关系到企业的经济效益。在对固网运营企业投资项目进行可行性研究时,对投资规模的优化是值得深入研究的问题。由于对投资项目的评价有多个指标,本文分别研究了以净现值最大和以净现值率最大为决策准则的投资规模决策模型,以期为固网投资决策提供参考。     

A statistical test of the stability assumption inherent in empirical estimates of economic depreciation.

Realistic estimates of economic depreciation are required for analyses of tax policy, economic growth and production, and national income and wealth. THe purpose of this paper is to examine the stability assumption underlying the econometric derivation of empirical estimates of economic depreciation for industrial machinery and and equipment. The results suggest that a reasonable stability of economic depreciation rates of decline may exist over time. Thus, the assumption of a constant rate of economic depreciation may be a reasonable approximation for further empirical economic analyses.     

Rental as A Taste of Freedom: The Decline of Home Ownership amongst Working‐class Youth in Spain during Times of Crisis

Over the past few decades, as the neoliberal project gradually took hold, owning one's home became a widespread practice in Spanish society. However, the prospects of purchasing housing have since been severely reduced due to the bursting of the real estate bubble and the onset of an overwhelming economic crisis. This article analyses how working‐class young people in Catalonia reflect on this phenomenon as they face their own process of moving away from home. It also considers the extent to which the spread of the so‐called ‘culture of ownership' represented an expression of neoliberal culture, and the extent to which the apparent dissolution of the former implies the erosion of the latter. The article concludes that home ownership has undergone a complex resignification in this sector of society, but continues to be an important aspiration insofar as the underlying conditions that originally brought it about continue to exist.     

客户盈余表现对供应商企业创新投资的影响研究

基于资源依赖理论和信号传递理论，利用手工收集的供应商企业-客户对均为上市公司的数据，系统考察客户盈余表现对供应商企业创新投资的影响。研究发现，客户盈余表现越好，越能促进供应商企业的创新投资。调节作用研究发现，供应链关系越稳定、越趋于良性，供应链企业的协同效应越明显，即高盈余客户对供应商企业创新投资的正向影响越强；企业与客户的产品多元化程度越低，客户盈余表现对供应商企业创新投资的正向影响越显著；高盈余客户通过降低供应商企业经营风险促进了供应商企业创新投资。进一步分析发现，供应商企业市场竞争程度越高、融资约束程度越高、客户相对议价能力越强，客户盈余表现对供应商企业创新投资的正向影响越会显著增强。研究结论拓展了客户盈余表现经济后果的理论边界，对推动供应链整合及供给侧结构性改革具有重要的启示意义。     

Financial Constraints on German Firms after the Crisis: Evidence from Threshold Panel Estimation

This article studies the existence and magnitude of financial investment constraints in Germany between 2006 and 2012 with a special emphasis on small and medium‐sized firms. The core contention is that the sensitivity of the investment rate to the cash flow rate is a function of a firm's financial position contributing to its access to external finance. The application of a nonlinear panel threshold model reveals that the marginal effect of the cash flow rate on the investment rate is almost twice as strong for ‘high debt’ firms compared to ‘low debt’ firms. This result holds for six out of seven balance sheet threshold variables. For a single specification, the results reveal a non‐monotonic relationship between the cash flow rate and investment rate. Firm size, however, does not explain differences in the cash‐flow‐investment nexus.     

An empirical model of mainframe computer investment

This paper introduces a dynamic model of investment decisions in mainframe computer systems. I estimate and test the model using detailed micro data from a company in the telecommunications industry. The model accounts for ‘technological depreciation’ which distinguishes computers from other investment goods where physical depreciation is typically a key factor underlying replacement investment decisions. The company increased its installed mainframe computer capacity by over 30‐fold over the 10‐year sample period. Part of this growth was undoubtedly due to the huge increase in performance and the corresponding drop in the per unit cost of processing capacity of mainframes, a consequence of ‘Moore's law’. However, there was also tremendous growth in the need for computers for billing, account processing and other tasks, due to the rapid growth in the telecommunications industry over this same time period. I estimate the unknown parameters of the investment model using a nonlinear least squares–nested fixed‐point algorithm (NLS‐NFXP), which solves the Bellman equation underlying the dynamic model of investment and replacement of mainframe computers by nonlinear least squares. I demonstrate that it is feasible to estimate this model on an ordinary PC, whereas standard discretization approaches to solving the firm's optimal investment policy might not even be feasible using supercomputers. I show that the estimated model fits the data very well, and accurately captures the large growth in installed mainframe capacity, the timing and magnitude of replacement investment, as well as periodic upgrades of existing mainframe units. I use the model to decompose how much of the 30‐fold increase in mainframe computer capacity is due to ‘Moore's law’ (i.e. the huge drop in the unit cost of installed mainframe capacity), and how much is due to the growth in demand for services of mainframes, due to the rapid growth in demand for telecommunications services (particularly cell phone accounts) by the firm's customers. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Modeling and forecasting U.S. public construction

This paper extends Lin's flexible accelerator model of dynamic investment behavior of U.S. public construction by relaxing two of the underlying basic assumptions: (1) the coefficient of adjustment is allowed to vary with the level of government expenditure and (2) the regression coefficients are treated as randomly changing over time rather than being viewed as fixed. The new models afford a better explanation of the behavior of U.S. public construction. Importantly, the forecasting ability of the variable-coefficient-of-adjustment model is tested for the three-year period beyond the sample period and compared to both the Lin's original and ARIMA models. It is found that this new model gives better forecasts of public construction for ten quarters ahead. On the basis of the chi-square test of model stability and the mean squared error, it is concluded that the model with variable adjustment coefficients is a better abstraction of economic reality and improves forecasting accuracy.     

The transformation of the German vocational training regime: evidence from firms’ training behaviour

The German system of industrial relations has undergone significant changes in the last decade. This article reflects on and provides empirical evidence for how these changes have affected the training behaviour of firms. Conventional perspectives would predict a general decline in training investment when the constraints of collective wage bargaining are loosened. Relying on a large data set on the costs and benefits of apprenticeship training for the years 2000 and 2007, we do find evidence for this hypothesis but would add that the strength of the effect varies strongly across different types of firms. Large firms have benefited much more from participating in training than have small firms and have therefore maintained their investment in training because they are able to reduce net costs by expanding the productive contributions of apprentices. This finding may help to explain the apparent resilience of the German training system in the recent economic and financial crisis.     

Building the Knowledge Stock: Lags,Depreciation, and Uncertainty in R&D Investment and Link with Productivity Growth

The search for an appropriate methodology to investigate the relation between R&D investment, knowledge stock and productivity growth is the main purpose of the paper. In analogy with physical assets, we present a model of knowledge capital formation which allows the calculation of the relevant user cost, as well. The proposed model accumulates R&D investment based on a stochastic gestation lag and a geometric depreciation of the stock. The basic parameters underlying the lag structure differ according to the types of research expenditure. The approach is applied to public R&D investment in Italian agriculture; the results provide interesting information about the economic structure of public research effort in Italian agriculture and plausible estimates of its internal rate of return.     

Economic insecurity,conservatism, and the crisis of environmentalism: 30 years of evidence

There is an ongoing scientific debate about how environmental concern develops in a population, and under which circumstances it might decline at some point. In this paper, by analysing thirty years of microdata from the German Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP), I investigate the role of socioeconomic factors and political preferences in altering and addressing environmental perceptions in Germany, Europe's green leader. Results from correlated random-effects models reveal, inter alia, that economic insecurity and support for right-wing political parties significantly contribute to lowering environmental concern. Hence, policymakers ought to focus on economic insecurity in order to increase citizens' environmental concern and, eventually, bring an enhancement in pro-environmental behaviour as a result of the voters' political will.     

The Medium term Outlook

In this Forecast Release we consider the prospects for the economy after the present phase of cyclical recovery. Our central forecast, which we regard as the best medium-term planning assumption, is that the economy slows down to a sustainable growth rate of around 1% per cent. This is in line with the underlying growth of productive capacity but not sufficient to cure unemployment. We recognise that in practice the economy may be pushed away from the underlying growth trajectory by random shocks, and we look at three major risks surrounding the present forecast: a rise in the savings ratio; a slower world recovery; and a cut in investment. We contend that the most serious of these risks is to investment, since the company sector will face a major increase in its tax bill from 1985-6 onwards. A growth recession is thus distinctly possible in 1986, which could, for economic and electoral reasons, be the low point of the present cycle.