Transmission of Information across International Equity Markets

This article provides evidence of information transmission fromthe United States and Japan to Korean and Thai equity markets.Information is defined as important macroeconomic announcementsin the United States, Japan, Korea, and Thailand. Using high-frequencyintraday data, I find a large and significant association betweendeveloped-economy macroeconomic announcements and emerging-economyequity volatility and trading volume at short time horizons.Previous studies’ findings of at most weak evidence oftransmission from developed to emerging economies may be dueto their use of lower frequency data and their focus on developed-economyfinancial market innovations as a proxy for information. (JELE44, G14, G15)     

The Dynamics of Earnings Forecast Management

This paper examines whether firms manage analyst forecasts andthe associated value consequences. We find that earnings forecaststend to grow pessimistic over the forecast horizon and theseforecast changes and their timing are key determinants of whetherfirms generate positive earnings surprises: Late forecasts thatraise (lower) the consensus sharply reduce (raise) the probabilityof positive surprises. This findng is the opposite of that predictedif consensus revisions reflected new information arrival. Investorsseem to be "misled": downward consensus revisions lead to largeabnormal returns following the earnings announcement. Paradoxically,downward forecast management reduces post-announcement shareprice, as the impact of reduced forecasts dominates the gainfrom generating positive surprises.     

Information,uncertainty, and behavioral effects: Evidence from abnormal returns around real estate investment trust earnings announcements

In this study, we examine the influence of real estate market sentiment, market-level uncertainty, and REIT-level uncertainty on cumulative abnormal earnings announcement returns over the 1995–2009 time period. We first document the relative coverage of analysts' earnings forecasts on U.S. REITs, as well as REITs from several countries (i.e., Australia, Belgium, Canada, France, Hong Kong, Japan, the Netherlands, and UK). We show that coverage outside of the U.S. is limited, and we consequently focus our analysis on U.S. REITs. We find strong evidence that earnings announcements contain pricing relevant information, with positive (negative) earnings surprises relative to analysts' forecasts resulting in significantly positive (negative) abnormal returns around the announcement date. Consistent with the findings from the broader equity market literature, we find limited evidence of a pre-announcement drift in the cumulative abnormal returns. However, in sharp contrast to the existing equity literature, we find no evidence of a post-earnings announcement drift in our aggregate sample or when the sample is restricted to the largest negative surprises. We find evidence of a post-earnings announcement drift for only the largest positive earnings surprises. These results are consistent with REIT returns more quickly impounding information relative to the broader equity market, in part because of the parallel private real estate market and because of the U.S. REIT structure and information environment. Finally, in our conditional regression analysis of cumulative abnormal returns, we find that real estate investor sentiment, market-wide uncertainty, and firm-level uncertainty significantly affect the magnitude of abnormal announcement returns and also influence the effect of unexpected earnings on abnormal returns.     

Announcement effects of convertible bond loans and warrant-bond loans: An empirical analysis for the Dutch market

This study investigates the announcement effects of offerings of convertible bond loans and warrant-bond loans using data for the Dutch market. The event study analysis shows that announcement effects of convertible bonds are associated with positive but insignificant abnormal returns and that announcements of warrant-bonds are associated with significant positive abnormal returns. These findings are similar to the results for Japanese hybrid debt, as reported by Kang et al. (1995) (Kang, J.K., Kim, Y.C., Park, K.J., Stulz, R.M., 1995. Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, pp. 257–270) and Kang and Stulz (1996) (Kang, J.K., Stulz, R.M., 1996. Review of Financial Studies, pp. 109–139), but they contrast with studies for the United States that generally find significant negative abnormal returns for convertible bond loans and insignificant negative abnormal returns for warrant-bond loans. Our results cannot be attributed to differences in the corporate governance structures of the Netherlands and the United States. We find that the positive abnormal returns for the warrant-bond loans are caused by the packaging of the announcements with other (good) firm-specific news.     

In- and out-of-the-money convertible bond calls: Signaling or price pressure?

Convertible bond calls typically cause significant reactions in equity prices. The empirical research largely finds negative and positive announcement effects for the in-the-money and the out-of-the-money calls respectively. However, this research has difficulty distinguishing between the two main theoretical explanations: the signaling effect and the price pressure effect. In this paper, we differentiate between these two effects by using a unique data set of the in- and the out-of-the-money calls in the United States during the period of 1993 to 2007. We find that the announcement effect for the in-the-money call is predominantly explained by the subsequent order imbalances; and the stock market's reaction is spread over an entire trading day, which is consistent with the price pressure effect. In contrast, the announcement effect for the out-of-the-money call is driven by the size of the called convertible bond; and the stock market's reaction is almost immediate, which is consistent with the signaling effect.     

Disentangling the Dividend Information in Splits: A Decomposition Using Conditional Event-Study Methods

While folklore in finance holds that split valuation effectsare due to dividend increases associated with splits, littleis known about magnitudes of dividend and nondividend componentsof split announcement effects. We find that splits and dividendsare indeed informational substitutes, a notion we characterizemore precisely, but a significant portion of split valuationeffects, 46% according to our estimates, cannot be attributedto dividend information in splits. Our techniques extend theliterature on conditional event-study methods and we illustratetheir practical value in testing hypotheses and analyzing datanot amenable to analysis by standard procedures.     

The Chinese Stock Dividend Puzzle

In this paper, we examine the announcement effects of dividends with an emphasis on stock dividends in China's capital market. We find that dividend-paying stocks exhibit significantly positive abnormal returns while non-dividend-paying stocks show a negative announcement effect. Further, we document that the cumulative abnormal returns for pure stock dividends and combined dividends are the main drivers of this announcement effect. In contrast, pure cash dividend stocks experience no significant price run-up before announcement. The significant announcement effect of stock dividends is robust to controlling the earnings surprise effect. We offer some discussion of the possible explanations.     

Post earnings announcement drift and the roles of drift-enhanced factors in New Zealand

This study examines the profitability of trading on analyst forecast-based earnings surprises during the post announcement period in the New Zealand stock market over the period 1994 to 2008. The results show that a post earnings announcement drift (PEAD) anomaly exists in the New Zealand equity market. A hedge strategy of going long the top quintile of earnings surprise stocks and short the bottom quintile of earnings surprise stocks can generate more than 6% excess return in the 60 days following the earnings announcement. I further test the association between PEAD and several control variables and find that PEAD is increasing in 1) earnings surprise defined relative to past earnings, and 2) the level of arbitrage risk. Interestingly, I do not find evidence of a positive relation between PEAD and revenue surprise after controlling for earnings surprise as documented in the United States (Jegadeesh and Livnat, 2006). There is also no evidence that the 2002 Disclosure Reform in the New Zealand Stock Exchange reduced the magnitude of PEAD.     

The underpricing of private targets

We examine acquisitions of private firms with valuation histories and find a positive relation between acquirer announcement returns and target valuation revisions. Similar to other studies, acquirer announcement returns are positive, on average. However, positive acquirer announcement returns are mainly driven by targets that are acquired for more than their prior valuation. This relation is consistent with pricing effects associated with target valuation uncertainty and behavioral biases in negotiation outcomes.     

Bank incentives and suboptimal lending decisions: Evidence from the valuation effect of bank loan announcements in Japan

Using a sample of bank loan announcements in Japan, we examine whether or not banks have incentives to engage in suboptimal lending that results in wealth transfer from the banks to the borrowing firms. We find that abnormal returns for borrowing firms are significantly positive, but those for lending banks are sometimes significantly negative. Furthermore, the announcement returns for borrowing firms are negatively related to those for lending banks, especially when poorly performing firms borrow from financially healthy (low-risk) banks. Our results suggest that the positive valuation effect of bank loan announcements for borrowing firms is mainly due to a wealth transfer from lending banks.     

资本市场国际影响力提升效应研究——来自A股纳入明晟(MSCI)新兴市场指数的证据

2018年5月15日,首批纳入明晟(MSCI)新兴市场指数的A股股票名单正式公布。我们发现,被纳入MSCI的股票(标的股票)在公告日前后有显著为正的累计超额收益。相较于主要特征相似的匹配股票,标的股票纳入MSCI后的分析师评级有显著提升。进一步研究表明,在公告日前后融资(融券)交易量显著上升(下降),而换手率没有明显变化,并且净融资交易与公告效应显著正相关。本文的发现表明,A股纳入MSCI这一事件具有明显的信息含量,传递了有关企业前景的正面信息,并促使本地市场聪明投资者进行更活跃的交易,这对促进价格发现、促成价值投资具有一定的推动作用。     

The deal of the century in Chile Endesa España's takeover of Enersis

We analyze the effect of the announcement of the tender offer made by Endesa España to control Enersis Chile through the Chispas holding structure. In this clinical study of the case, we summarize the salient points of the Chispa case—one of the most controversial in Chile—and obtain the abnormal returns to the shareholders of the target firm using three alternative models for robustness of results: the constant mean model, the market model, and the market model adjusted for non-synchronous trading problems. Contrary to expectations based on prior empirical research in the United States and United Kingdom, our results demonstrate the absence of positive cumulative abnormal returns (CARs) for Chispa stockholders during the takeover bidding event window. We present evidence in this case that the governance structure of the target firm led to this seeming anomaly and conclude that the generally accepted theories of corporate control and governance in the United States and United Kingdom do not automatically apply to developing countries with differing legal environments.     

Profiting from government stakes in a command economy: Evidence from Chinese asset sales

We examine the market response to an unexpected announcement of the sale of government-owned shares in China. In contrast to earlier work, we find a negative effect of government ownership on returns at the announcement date and a symmetric positive effect from the policy's cancellation. We suggest that this results from the absence of a Chinese political transition to accompany economic reforms, so that the benefits of political ties outweigh the efficiency costs of government shareholdings. Companies managed by former government officials have positive abnormal returns, suggesting that personal ties can substitute for government ownership as a source of connections.     

Seasoned Equity Issuance by Japan and Singapore REITs

This paper examines the effects of market conditions and asset acquisitions on announcement returns and the probability of equity offerings by REITs in Japan and Singapore. The Asian experience is interesting given the prevalence of yield accretive strategies, but more so, we establish that past acquisitions have a significant effect on the probability of equity offering, over and beyond the effect of debt and market conditions. A contemporaneous acquisition announcement mitigates the negative price effect of the SEO announcement. We also find that equity clustering affects market reaction and SEO issuance.     

Public Information, IPO Price Formation, and Long-Run Returns: Japanese Evidence

The price formation process of JASDAQ IPOs is more transparent than in the United States. The transparency facilitates analysis of important issues in the IPO literature—why offer prices only partially adjust to public information and adjust more fully to negative information, and why adjustments are related to initial returns. The evidence indicates that early price information conveys the underwriter's commitment to compensate investors for acquiring and/or disclosing information. Offer prices reflect pre-IPO market values of public companies and implicit agreements between underwriters and issuers that originate well before the offering. Underadjustment of offer prices is substantially reversed in the aftermarket.     

REIT Stock Splits and Liquidity Changes

This study examines the motive of stock splits made by REITs. We find that REIT liquidity increases after the split announcement. However, the increase in liquidity is limited to days around the split announcement. After the ex-date, the liquidity tends to revert back to the pre-split level. We find that the positive market reaction around the announcement date is positively related to the change in short-term liquidity but not to the change in long-term liquidity. The announcement effect is also not correlated with future changes in operating performance. Overall, our results suggest that REITs split their share to attract investors’ attention rather than to signal or to improve trading liquidity in the long run.     

Differential shareholder wealth and volume effects surrounding private equity placements in New Zealand

Private equity placements in New Zealand exhibit a strong positive relationship between abnormal announcement returns and the price at which shares are placed. The relationship suggests that placement price conveys important information regarding firm quality and value. This is significant as the New Zealand market has different regulations governing private equity placements compared to other countries. For example, private placement purchasers in New Zealand can buy shares at substantial discounts and immediately sell on-market without disclosing these trades to the market for a period of at least 5 days. Private placements issued at a premium exhibit a permanent positive impact on firm value. In contrast, those placed at a discount experience negative announcement returns and show a significant run-down in returns following the announcement. Private placements spark a large increase in trading activity in the 5 days following an announcement and the increase is particularly strong for those placed at a discount. We also find that companies that privately place equity in New Zealand are typically low book to market, thinly traded stocks. Therefore, the immediate returns available to purchasers of discounted shares may reflect fair compensation for these risks.     

The Bankruptcy Decision and Debt Contract Renegotiations

We consider the bankruptcy law and workout practices in the United States and model bankruptcy as a strategic decision. We analyze a firm's choice between liquidation under Chapter 7, renegotiation of the debt contract in a workout, and reorganization under Chapter 11 of the bankruptcy code. Our premise is that a financially distressed firm chooses its action in order to minimize the loss in value caused by the well-known over- and under-investment problems. We show that the firm initiates a workout when it faces under-investment, and commences Chapter 11 when it faces over-investment. Some of the results are: (i) in default, total firm value and equity value increase upon the announcement of a workout and decrease upon the announcement of Chapter 11; (ii) firms with shorter maturity of debt are more likely to reorganize in a workout; (iii) among the firms that renegotiate their debt contract, the proportion of firms entering Chapter 11 is higher for firms in mature industries than for firms in growth industries.     

Asset pricing: A tale of two days

We show that asset prices behave very differently on days when important macroeconomic news is scheduled for announcement. In addition to significantly higher average returns for risky assets on announcement days, return patterns are much easier to reconcile with standard asset pricing theories, both cross-sectionally and over time. On such days, stock market beta is strongly related to average returns. This positive relation holds for individual stocks, for various test portfolios, and even for bonds and currencies, suggesting that beta is after all an important measure of systematic risk. Furthermore, a robust risk–return trade-off exists on announcement days. Expected variance is positively related to future aggregated quarterly announcement day returns, but not to aggregated non-announcement day returns. We explore the implications of our findings in the context of various asset pricing models.     

Do SMEs Benefit from Unconventional Monetary Policy and How? Microevidence from the Eurozone

We study the impact of the announcement of the European Central Bank's (ECB's) Outright Monetary Transactions Program on small firms’ access to finance using a matched firm‐bank data set from eight Eurozone countries. We find that following the announcement, credit access improved relatively more for firms borrowing from banks with high balance sheet exposures to impaired sovereign debt, with such firms less likely to be refused a loan or to be price rationed. Loan terms also improved as manifested by lengthening of loan maturities. Unconventional monetary policy has a positive impact on firms’ investment and profitability, while its effect on firm innovation is weaker.