中国宏观经济形势研讨会综述

由中国社会科学院经济研究所和中国诚信证券评估有限公司共同主办的“中国宏观经济形势研讨会”,于2002年7月27日在北京召开。来自主办单位和国家计委、中国人民银行、农业部、北京大学、有关证券公司的专家学者以及主要新闻媒体的记者共50余人出席了会议。与会者就上半年宏观经济形势及相关的一些问题进行了发言和讨论。     

当前宏观经济形势的思考

1992年后,中国国民经济的增速一直呈现为连续下滑趋势,1992年至1999年历年增长速度分别为14．2％、13．5％、12．6％、10．5％、9．6％、8．8％、7．8％和7．1％。与国民经济增速下滑相应的就业形势日趋严峻,实际失业率不断上升和居高不下。更令人担忧的是物价连续走低,通货紧缩状况困扰经济发展。产业投资回报状况恶化,增量资金找不到有利的投资领域,金融资本被迫不断降低利率,银行存贷款利率自1996年5月至1999年6月,连续七次下调,居民存款利率三年降幅达79．51％,流动资金贷款利率降幅达46．72％。     

2004:中国宏观经济形势回顾与展望

2003年，我国粗放型增长结构的问题异常突出。由于资源和能源的高消耗，致使能源，特别是电力，煤炭运输紧张的矛盾又再一次突出，钢材，棉花等价格大幅上涨，低水平重复建设等现象普遍存在，照此趋势发展下去，可持续发展将难以为继。     

下半年宏观经济形势展望

2011年上半年．我国经济面临“稳增长”与“控通胀”的双重挑战。面对复杂严峻的经济金融形势．我国政府提出积极稳健、审慎灵活的宏观经济政策,将“调结构、稳物价、保民生、促改革”作为经济工作的重心,全年国内经济有望继续保持平稳较快发展,实现“十二五”规划良好开局。     

劳动力市场结构性改革的宏观经济效应:一个模拟分析

文章考虑了我国非正规就业普遍存在的现实,构建包含非正规就业的动态随机一般均衡模型,分析我国劳动力市场结构性改革的短期效应和长期效应.研究发现,不同劳动力市场结构性改革的短期效应与长期效应存在显著差异:(1)就长期效应而言,以降低正规部门雇佣成本为内容的第一种劳动力市场结构性改革、以降低正规部门议价能力为内容的第二种劳动力市场结构性改革均有助于产出的增加以及就业的正规化(即长期收益);(2)就短期效应而言,第一种劳动力市场结构性改革在短期中引起产出的显著下降和失业的显著上升(即短期疼痛),而第二种劳动力市场结构性改革则并未引起失业的增加.进一步,文章发现货币政策对劳动力市场结构性改革的效应具有重要影响:就基准政策看,旨在降低雇佣成本的第一种劳动力市场结构性改革的效应具有显著的"以短期疼痛换取长期收益"的特征;在Evans规则下,第一种劳动力市场结构性改革的这一特征则不复存在.因此,无论采用哪一种改革方式,Evans规则均可以作为配套性货币政策;并且就改革的效果而言,第二种劳动力市场结构性改革可能更为可取.     

银行非自愿超额准备金与宏观经济波动:来自中国的经验证据

基于将银行超额准备金分解为预防性超额准备金和非自愿超额准备金,以及将非自愿超额准备金作为银行体系流动性衡量指标,并对非自愿超额准备金的波动机制及其对宏观经济波动影响机制进行考察,发现1998-2010年期间,在外汇占款和银行贷款的综合作用下,非自愿超额准备金率经历了先降后升,然后再次下降的走势。而且从短期看,非自愿超额准备金的累积会对产出、价格和银行贷款产生负向效应,但从长期看,则又体现为正向效应,从而放大和加剧了宏观经济波动。在此情况下,货币当局在流动性管理过程中,应审慎针对非自愿超额准备金展开微调性操作,从而实现宏观经济的平稳运行。     

资本管制与宏观经济政策的配合

加入WTO后，我国金融市场的开放将使资本管制受到较大的冲击，只有运用宏观经济政策配合资本管制，才能实现对我国资本外选的有效控制。本通过对我国资本外选进行测算和实证研究，分析了财政政策、货币政策、汇率风险等与资本外选之间的相关性及其影响机制，并在此基础上对我国宏观经济政策和资本管制的配合提出了相应的建议。     

Unskilled Labor Migration and Capital Mobility: A Diagrammatic Exposition

Conclusions about the effects of out-migration of unskilled labor on a country's wage rates and capital flows are illustrated with accessible diagrams. This article is of particular value in courses in international trade, economic development, and regional economics.     

Evolution in Division of Labor and Macroeconomic Policies

The relative merits of income-tax and money financing of a constant share of government expenditure in GNP are assessed in a dynamic learning-by-doing model with endogenous specialization. It is shown that the mode of the financing policy has real effects, in particular on the speed of evolution in division of labor and the growth rate of an economy. Different government financing methods invoke different effects; as the economy develops, the effectiveness of these policies may vary with the extent of the division of labor. Some of the effects are also found to be substantially different from those in conventional models with exogenous specialization.     

劳动力输出与资本输出:单边到双边的转变——日本对华直接投资的视角

进入新世纪,日本对华直接投资发生了以下四大转变:一是"单极集中"转向"多极分散";二是贸易型转向市场型;三是低加工型转向高研发型;四是"产业空洞化"转向"制造回流"。加之全球化背景下新的世界经济形势,与此相伴生日本在劳动力市场和资本市场可以期待的松动与一定程度的放开,中日两国合作的空间将会更大。     

Macroeconomic Effects of Capital Account Liberalization: the Case of Korea

The macroeconomic effects of capital account liberalization in Korea are examined. Simple data analysis suggests that capital account liberalization substantially changed the nature and composition of capital flows. Based on the VAR model, the authors find the following stylized facts. First, after capital market liberalization, capital flows become less driven by current account imbalances and therefore become more autonomous. Second, capital account liberalization significantly changes the effects of capital flows on macroeconomic variables. Third, capital account liberalization is highly related to consumption and investment booms, and subsequent appreciation of nominal and real exchange rates, which leads to the current account worsening. Finally, there is strong evidence of sterilized foreign exchange market intervention in response to capital inflows.     

A Case Study of the Dual Labor Market Hypothesis

This paper is about corporations and the principles by which they are guided. The focus is on conceptualization of control issues, and changes in such conceptualizations over time. Among individuals who are in a position to affect the overall direction of corporations, there are broadly shared views of the overall orientation that should be adopted. Such “conceptions of control” are a response to important contingencies in the firm's institutional environment. In the United States the most broadly shared conception of control currently is a particularly narrow one, focusing on financial measures of performance. This has not always been the case: conceptions of control are subject to evolutionary change over time. The paper traces such changes, evaluates the current situation and its relation to shareholders, and speculates as to the possibility of a future change in a more socially conscious direction.     

新形势下对劳动价值理论的再认识

时代的发展和生产力与生产关系的变化，对马克思劳动价值理论提出了新的挑战。本探讨了新的历史条件下深化对劳动和劳动价值理论的认识，用发展着的劳动价值论指导新的实践；重视技术劳动、管理劳动和第三产业的劳动；建立健全收入分配的激励机制和约束机制。