食品安全丑闻报道与产销价格传导——基于中国猪肉市场的经验研究

本文利用主流媒体对猪肉质量安全事件的新闻报道构造食品安全丑闻报道指数,首次从媒体报道视角分析食品安全丑闻对中国猪肉供应链产销价格传导的影响。平滑转换误差修正模型检验结果表明:(1)食品安全丑闻报道是决定产销价格传导关系的门槛变量,当食品安全丑闻报道指数处于门槛值以内时,产销价格传导表现为线性关系,超出门槛值以后,则表现为非线性关系,但更多时候表现为非线性关系;(2)食品安全丑闻报道对产销价格具有非对称冲击效应,生猪价格比猪肉价格对冲击的反应程度更大、持续时间更长。这种非对称冲击效应不仅会打破产销价格波动的固有规律,也会加剧供应链上福利分配不均衡,处于弱势地位的养殖户更容易遭受福利损失。进一步采用向量自回归模型进行脉冲响应分析,结果仍然支持上述结论。     

Price Asymmetry in the International Wheat Market

Most wheat exports are accounted for by a limited number of countries with different policy regimes and specializing, for the most part, in particular classes of wheat. Under these circumstances, there is likely to be considerable interaction among the major exporting countries in the determination of wheat prices. In this paper, price linkages between the U.S. and other exporting countries (Canada, the European Union, Argentina and Australia) in the world wheat market are investigated. After determining that the direction of causality is from U. S. prices to the prices of other exporting countries, the nature of the price linkages is studied. The results suggest that the major exporting countries respond asymmetrically to U.S. price changes. The degree of asymmetry differs from one exporting country to another, Argentina and the European Union show greater response to falling prices than to rising prices, while the opposite is true for Canada and Australia.     

Price shock transmission: evidence from the wheat‐bread market value chain in Ethiopia

This study assesses the degree of vertical price transmission along the wheat‐bread value chain in Ethiopia. This is pursued by applying a vector error correction model and an impulse response analysis using monthly price data for the period 2000–2015. Our analysis considers transmission of price shocks across different market levels, including from the international and domestic wheat grain markets at the upstream to the domestic wheat bread market at the downstream of the value chain. The empirical findings indicate that significant cointegration exists across prices of the different market stages. There is a transmission from international prices to domestic prices at downstream markets, in particular to flour and bread prices. Prices at upstream markets are largely influenced by the domestic wholesale market. In general, the speed of adjustment is quite slow with a half‐life of about one year for restoring the equilibrium price relationship. As price margins between the different market stages in the value chain have substantially decreased in the last 15 years, higher transmission, and thus exposure to international market shocks, can be expected in the future. The results also show that causal relationships exist between prices at different market stages—with the wholesale market identified as the key market level where prices and price expectations are formed.     

我国鸡蛋价格波动传导的影响因素分析——基于非对称的研究视角

[目的]文章采用鸡蛋价格的周度批发和零售数据,从成本、替代品两个维度探讨鸡蛋价格波动的影响因素和非对称传导特征。[方法]通过滚动回归的方式探讨非对称传导特征的动态变化,并进一步探讨了鸡蛋批零价格之间的相互影响和非对称传导特点。[结果]成本、替代品价格变动对与鸡蛋批零价格具有正向影响和非对称特征,但在静态的线性回归模型中并不明显。鸡蛋批发价格受成本价格变动的影响更大,而零售价格受替代品价格变动的影响更大。在动态的滚动回归模型下,成本、替代品价格对鸡蛋价格波动具有十分明显的时变非对称特征,但这种非对称传导特征并不一致。鸡蛋批发价格早期对零售价格具有正向的非对称传导,但近年来趋向于对称传导。鸡蛋零售价格对批发价格总体具有负向的非对称传导特征,零售价格下降对批发价格的影响更大。[结论]需要建立蛋鸡产业成本—价格监测预警系统,充分发挥产业技术平台、行业协会、学会等研究机构在生产决策中的指导作用。不断完善鸡蛋供应链建设,增强调控与监管政策的灵活性与创新性。     

Retail Price Fixity as a Facilitating Mechanism

Previous theoretical explanations for retail price fixity show that fixed retail prices can be consistent with either competitive or imperfectly competitive behavior. We develop a conceptual model of retail pricing wherein fixed price points are facilitating mechanisms for tacit collusion. A non-cooperative equilibrium in fixed retail prices is supported through credible threats to revert to Nash pricing if cheating is suspected. We test the implications of this model using a two-stage, ordered probit approach in weekly supermarket pricing data. The results show that price fixity does support collusive equilibria among retailers, but other factors may also explain retail price behavior.     

Asymmetric transmission between factory and wholesale prices in fiberboard market in Korea

This paper extends the estimation of price relationships in wood processing and empirical assessment of asymmetric price transmission by incorporating time lags in both explanatory and dependent variables. Each of the models developed and estimated in this article reveals the existence of asymmetric price transmission between factory and wholesale prices of fiberboard in Korea. Estimation results indicate that wholesalers earn additional profits by exploiting price fluctuations in the markets. The empirical findings in this study suggest the potential for lower wholesale prices of fiberboard with more competition in wholesale marketing.     

Measurement and Testing for Equality of Foreign Price and Consumer Price Index Transmission in Russia

This paper tests for segmentation of retail meat markets in Russia before and after the financial crisis of 1998. Using monthly prices of pork and beef in 80 regions of Russia from 1994 to 1999, we measure the short-run response of regional prices to changes in foreign prices and domestic inflation. We find that changes in both foreign prices and domestic inflation have distinct impacts on the prices of these commodities in different Russian cities, indicating that the markets are segmented in the short run. An analysis of the effect of the financial crisis shows that the response to the crisis was mixed, with some regions showing more evidence of segmentation than others.     

The Effect of Energy Price Increases on the U.S. Livestock Sector

This study is unique and crucial to the current time period because of the recent high energy price escalation. The uniqueness of this study pertains to the void in energy impact research of the agricultural sector, more specifically to livestock. The U.S. Department of Energy has models estimating economy-wide impacts, but not the specific impacts on agriculture. The Iowa State study concentrated on the grain sector.
The results presented here indicate that energy price increases will have substantial effects on livestock prices and production. Energy price increases will also result in differential impacts on livestock commodities (with poultry and eggs having the largest price and production effects). Furthermore, the multi-period framework enables the livestock model to capture lagged production responses. Noticeable is the higher impacts occurring in the third and fourth years.
In the future, higher energy costs may induce changes in U.S. production, processing and distribution patterns of livestock commodities. The highly vertically integrated poultry and egg industries may begin shifting production locations away from the colder northern regions to areas with more temperate climates. For industries like beef, pork and dairy, there may be increased range production to reduce impacts from higher feed costs. For all industries, closer proximity of processing plants to major livestock producing areas may occur.     

Price and quantity endogeneity in demand analysis: evidence from directed acyclic graphs

We propose to use the emerging method of directed graphs to study price/quantity endogeneity issues in empirical demand analysis. The approach is illustrated through the examination of U.S. meat consumption. We find that for two major meat products (beef and poultry), retail prices contemporaneously caused quantities consumed, thus were predetermined. In contrast, the quantity consumed of pork appeared to be predetermined relative to its price.     

Price Dynamics in a Vertical Sector: The Case of Butter

We develop a reduced-form model of price transmission in a vertical sector, allowing for refined asymmetric, contemporaneous and lagged, own and cross-price effects under time-varying volatility. The model is used to investigate the wholesale-retail price dynamics in the U.S. butter market. The analysis documents the nature of nonlinear price dynamics in a vertical sector. It finds strong evidence of asymmetric retail price responses, both in the short term and the longer term, but only weak evidence of asymmetric wholesale price responses. Asymmetric retail responses play a major role in generating a skewed distribution of butter prices. The empirical results indicate the presence of imperfect competition at the retail level.     

The Canadian Beef and Pork Sectors: New Found Relevance of Live Market Information

The structure of price transmission both vertically (between links in the market channel) and horizontally (between market areas) for beef and pork in Canada is examined. The analysis of vertical price transmission indicates that farmgate prices lead retail prices. The hypothesized relationship between retail and farmgate prices is that the farmgate demand curve is shifted by wholesaler anticipation of the retail price changes. Such a situation would place greater importance on the live markets since prices determined in these markets would eventually be reflected in the retail market. The results have further implications for the determination of price margins and related policy issues.     

Price Variability and Industrial Concentration in U.S. Food Industries

This paper focuses on the sources of intra‐industry price variability in US food industries during a period of increasing concentration, while accounting for the impact of variations in prices of primary agricultural products. Results suggest that intra‐industry price variability in food industries increases with their respective mean rate of inflation and product heterogeneity. However, industrial concentration lowers the sensitivity of relative prices to changes in the mean rate of inflation. Hence, static welfare losses to consumers from increasing concentration in food industries, a subject of recent and intensive investigation, can partly be offset by gains such as reduced price variability.     

Asymmetry in beef,lamb and pork farm-retail price transmission in Australia

The hypothesis of asymmetry in price transmission within the Australian meat market is tested using monthly data for beef, lamb and pork prices at different market levels over the period 1971–1988. The results indicate that asymmetrical price response is a strategy used by beef and lamb retailers and wholesalers to adjust to changing input prices, but not by pork retailers and wholesalers. This difference is perhaps unexpected given the similarity in behaviours relating to price levelling in this market, the high cross-price elasticities of demand between these meats, and the relatively greater degree of concentration in the pork market.     

A time series analysis of Danish markets for pork, chicken, and beef

We offer a first-time empirical depiction of Danish dynamic meat price/quantity transmissions by formulating, estimating, and testing a VAR model of market-clearing quantities and prices of the Danish pork, chicken, and beef markets. The analysis illuminates how these markets dynamically handle shocks, and it is demonstrated that: (i) the three meats are close substitutes; (ii) chicken and pork market shocks have own-market and cross-market effects that occur rapidly and swiftly, while beef market shocks have more enduring impacts on pork and chicken markets; (iii) prices are in general more endogenous than quantities; and (iv) the price of chicken is much more endogenous than the prices of pork and beef.     

Examining long-run relationships between Australian beef prices

Cointegration and impulse response analyses are used to investigate the short-run and long-run dynamics of the Australian beef market. The aim of this study is to determine whether long-run relationships existed between Australian beef prices at the farm, wholesale and retail levels. Based on monthly data from 1971 to 1994, the results show that all three prices considered are cointegrated. Furthermore, the wholesale price is found to be weakly exogenous. The latter result might be an indication of market inefficiency due in part to price levelling often practised in the beef marketing system.     

上海原油期货价格与我国新能源股价的相关性研究

选取上海原油期货和中证新能指数作为研究对象,以VAR模型为基础,分析了原油期货价格对新能源行业股价产生的引导作用,研究了上海原油期货与我国新能源行业股价的相关关系。研究结果表明:①上海原油期货价格的下跌会引起我国新能源行业股价的上涨,两者表现出反向变动;②上海原油期货价格对新能源行业股价的贡献率在不断提高,相互影响程度逐渐增强。     

The demand for meat and fish in Spain: Urban and rural areas

The aim of the paper is to explain to what extent meat consumption patterns in Spain are different in rural and urban areas and which are the factors explaining differences and similarities. A demand system using cross-section data from the latest Spanish National Survey has been estimated. Unit values have been used instead of market prices and price and quality effects have been obtained. The main conclusion is that meat consumption patterns in urban and rural areas are not really different as regards economic factors. Some small income and price effect differences have been found, specially for fresh pork and fish, Responses to changes in income and price are higher for fresh pork consumption in rural areas and for fish in urban areas.     

Spatial integration between Finnish and Dutch potato markets

This study estimated a conditional mean model for producer prices of fresh potatoes in Finland and for wholesale selling prices of fresh potatoes in the Netherlands. Unit roots were tested in the Finnish and Dutch price series. Then, an asymmetric error correction model with thresholds was estimated for potato prices between Finland and the Netherlands. Asymmetry was allowed both in short and long-run price transmission. The results suggest that the prices are cointegrated and the arbitrage system is functioning, but with a significant time lag between the Finnish and Dutch potato markets. The price response is also asymmetric in that the Finnish price moves towards a steady state equilibrium faster from above than from below the equilibrium.     

Processing Technology,Market Power and Price Transmission

This paper focuses on the extent to which price changes occurring at the farm-level are transmitted to the retail sector. A price transmission elasticity is derived which is shown to depend on the degree of market power in the food industry and the nature of the food industry's processing technology. The offsetting role of the processing technology and market power in determining the extent of price transmission are highlighted. A case-study reports values for the price transmission elasticity for the US beef and pork sectors.     

Agricultural Producer Price Expectations

Producer price expectations underlie much of agricultural supply analysis. While producer price expectations would ideally be discovered experimentally, this is too costly. Instead, producer price expectations are usually represented in agricultural supply analysis by easily obtained hypothesized expectation formulations. In most cases, the hypothesized expectation formulations are functions of past prices. However, other formulations are sometimes used, such as current cash and futures prices, or initial payments in the case of grains marketed by the Canadian Wheat Board. This paper compares actual producer price expectations with a variety of hypothesized expectation formulations for wheat and canola in Saskatchewan. A test developed by Granger is used to determine the proxy models that are significantly dominant. The model that dominates as a proxy in the case of wheat price expectations is the two-year declining-weight moving average. The two models that dominate as a proxy in the case of canola price expectations are the first-order autoregressive and, as well, the two-year declining-weight moving average. There is no significant difference between the two models. Somewhat surprising is the performance of formulations based on futures prices. These formulations perform very poorly in representing producers' price expectations, even though they are found to be among the most accurate predictors of actual commodity prices. An even more interesting observation is the performance of the futures price model in the canola market. Even though the November contract in January explains very little of the variation in the actual commodity prices for that year, its error in predicting canola prices is not significantly greater than that of the best performing, the four-year declining-weight moving average, based upon the root mean squared error criterion.