食品安全丑闻报道与产销价格传导——基于中国猪肉市场的经验研究

本文利用主流媒体对猪肉质量安全事件的新闻报道构造食品安全丑闻报道指数,首次从媒体报道视角分析食品安全丑闻对中国猪肉供应链产销价格传导的影响。平滑转换误差修正模型检验结果表明:(1)食品安全丑闻报道是决定产销价格传导关系的门槛变量,当食品安全丑闻报道指数处于门槛值以内时,产销价格传导表现为线性关系,超出门槛值以后,则表现为非线性关系,但更多时候表现为非线性关系;(2)食品安全丑闻报道对产销价格具有非对称冲击效应,生猪价格比猪肉价格对冲击的反应程度更大、持续时间更长。这种非对称冲击效应不仅会打破产销价格波动的固有规律,也会加剧供应链上福利分配不均衡,处于弱势地位的养殖户更容易遭受福利损失。进一步采用向量自回归模型进行脉冲响应分析,结果仍然支持上述结论。     

Local polynomial fitting and spatial price relationships: price transmission in EU pork markets

We study price transmission processes within EU pork marketsafter the implementation of the EU single market in 1993. Wecompare results derived from non-parametric regressions withthose obtained using alternative non-linear threshold models.Both techniques support the hypothesis that prices are transmittedacross spatially separate EU pig markets and provide evidencefor asymmetric price adjustments. They also suggest the existenceof a range of price differentials where equilibrating priceadjustments are less intense. Non-parametric techniques oftensuggest a higher degree of price transmission than that impliedby threshold models.     

Marketing margins and price transmission on the Hungarian beef market

There is a wealth of literature on farm-retail price spread for different commodities and countries. However, research on price transmission and marketing margins in the transition economies is still limited. The paper analyses two specific aspects of transition: the larger probability of asymmetric price transmission and structural changes in the case of Hungarian beef chain. The article identifies the date of structural break applying the Gregory and Hansen procedure with recursively estimated breakpoints and ADF statistics. Exogeneity tests reveal the causality runs from producer to retail prices. Homogeneity is rejected, suggesting a mark-up pricing strategy. Price transmission analysis suggests that, despite the common belief, price transmission on the Hungarian beef meat market is symmetric on both long and short run.     

U.S. Canned Tuna Supply and Demand

Abstract

A 3SLS econometric model is used to estimate price elasticities of supply and demand for domestically produced and imported canned tuna in the U.S. market. In addition, a VAR model is developed to examine the relations between imports and domestically produced canned tuna. For domestically produced canned tuna, a 3SLS estimation of a structural econometric model yielded a coefficient for price elasticity of supply of 0.2 and of own-price demand of ?0.3. Such price inelasticities are expected of a fishery exploited at or near its maximum yields (inelastic supply), and a consumer product widely viewed as almost a necessity in a well-stocked pantry (inelastic demand). In addition, the model yielded a cross-price elasticity of demand with respect to the price of imported canned tuna of 0.45. Additional results include an income elasticity U.S. demand for domestically packed tuna of 0.83; a cross-price elasticity with the price of bread (a complement) of ?0.33, a cross-price elasticity for the price of ground meat (a substitute) of 0.30. With respect to imported canned tuna in the U.S. market, the corresponding elasticities estimated in the model are ?1.3 (own-price demand), 3.5 (income elasticity), ?1.2 (cross-price with the price of bread) and 2.5 (cross-price with the price of ground meat).

For canned tuna company managers, the results provide useful information about the likely effects on sales that would come from their own price changes, from changes in the price of imported canned tuna, and from price changes in the markets for complementary and substitute products. They can also use our results in discussions with U.S. trade negotiators, who are frequently faced with disputes over tariffs, market access, and other trade issues.     

Unbiasedness and Market Efficiency Tests of the U.S. Rice Futures Market

This study examines short-run and long-run unbiasedness within the U.S. rice futures market. Standard OLS, cointegration, and error-correction models are used to determine unbiasedness. In addition, the forecasting performance of the rice futures market is analyzed and compared to out-of-sample forecasts derived from an additive ARIMA model and the error-correction model. The results of our unbiasedness tests and the forecasting performance of the rice futures market provide supporting evidence that the U.S. long-grain rough rice futures market is efficient. The results have important price risk management and price discovery implications for Arkansas and U.S. rice industry participants.     

Contracting in the U.S. Pork and Beef Industries: Extent, Motives, and Issues

Contracting has increased significantly in the US livestock-meat sector. Over half of finished hogs and about a third of fed cattle are marketed under some form of contract. Contracting motives vary by type of contract, whether buyer or seller, and by commodity. Several motives for buyers and sellers of finished hogs and fed cattle are identified and discussed. Issues related to contracting per se and the trend toward increased contracting have been raised by contracting opponents, politicians, and economists. Several of these issues are discussed under six headings. Lastly, agricultural economists are encouraged to become actively involved in addressing these issues, especially providing pragmatic education and assistance to those involved in contracting.     

Shadow pricing diversity in U. S. national forests

Tobit estimation of the market value of timber sales in national forests of North Carolina demonstrates the important effect of stand diversity on the formulation of bid prices for mixed-species timber tracts. The hedonic model generates a shadow price for diversity according to changes in bid prices, an effective shift in the demand curve for auctioned tracts due to stand diversity attributes. This approach contrasts with traditional shadow price analyses that focus on the supply effects of environmental constraints. Results are corrected for the effects of bidder participation, market conditions, production costs, and other stand attributes. Econometric results demonstrate that stand heterogeneity is a highly significant factor influencing the market value of timber sales from national forests of the Appalachian region. Greater heterogeneity results in lower bid prices for timber sales, indicating a positive shadow price for maintenance of stand diversity.     

Is Exchange Rate Pass-Through in Pork Meat Export Prices Constrained by the Supply of Live Hogs?

The impact of lags in the production and marketing of agricultural products on the degree of exchange rate pass-through in export prices is investigated. The predictions of the theoretical model are tested by investigating Canadian pork export prices in the United States and Japan. The empirical methodology accounts for unit root and cointegration using the dynamic seemingly unrelated regression framework and a minimum distance estimator. Predetermined hog supplies have a statistically significant impact on export prices of two out of three Canadian provinces. The degree of misspecification involved with standard pass-through models that do not account for production lags is also illustrated.     

近代太原地区的粮价动向与粮食市场--以《退想斋日记》为中心

本文通过利用《退想斋日记》中所记录的近代山西太原地区粮食价格数据，分析了近代太原粮价的长期变动趋势，并在此基础上考察了该地区的粮食流通市场状况。本文认为：清代太原地区的粮食流通体系已经形成，并有一定程度的发展，它所具有的两级粮食流通体系——外部省际与内部县际流通渠道，使太原地区的粮价能够保持一种长期相对稳定的局面。     

U.S. Farm Policy and the Volatility of Commodity Prices and Farm Revenues

A dynamic three-commodity rational-expectations storage model is used to compare the impact of the Federal Agricultural Improvement and Reform (FAIR) Act of 1996 with a free-market policy, and with pre-FAIR policies. Results suggest that FAIR did not lead to significant increases in long-run price volatility or revenue volatility. The main impact of pre-FAIR, relative to the free-market regime, was to substitute government storage for private storage in a way that did little to support prices or to stabilize farm incomes. Results also indicate that U.S. grain market volatility in 1995–2000 was due to fundamental market forces and not to FAIR.     

Market and Cost Structure in the U.S. Beef Packing Industry: A Plant-Level Analysis

A resurgence of consolidation in the U.S. meat packing industry in the past few decades has stimulated academic and policy debate. Issues raised include the role of cost economies in driving these patterns, and the effects on the agricultural sector (cattle producers) from market power. Here, plant level cost and revenue data for U.S. beef packing plants are used to estimate a cost-based model incorporating cattle- and output-market pricing behavior. The robust results indicate little market power exploitation in either the cattle input or beef output markets, and that any apparent evidence is counteracted by cost efficiencies such as utilization and scope economies.     

不同等级城市房价与地价关系的规律初探

研究目的:对房价与地价关系进行因果关系检验,探索其地域等级差异规律,以期为因地制宜地制定房价调控政策提供参考。研究方法:对比分析法,ECM,Granger因果关系检验。研究结果:(1)地价对房价的短期影响表现为:三线城市最强,二线次之,一线最差;房价对地价的短期作用表现为:二线城市强于一线和三线城市;(2)房价与地价的相互关系在中期稳定性差,且不同城市表现出变动的随机性;(3)地价对房价的长期作用表现为一线、二线和三线城市逐渐增强;房价对地价的长期影响则恰好相反。研究结论:(1)房价与地价关系特征相似的城市,在相关政策的制定上可以彼此借鉴;(2)房价调控政策要将时效性考虑在内;(3)房价调控政策的制定要依据城市等级而有所差异。     

Quarterly Dynamic Relationships Between the U.S. Wheat Market and Wheat-Related Prices for Products Downstream

Abstract

A quarterly VA R econometric model of the reduced form relationships between the U.S. wheat market and prices of processed wheat-related flour, bread, and other bakery products downstream was estimated. The model then simulated under a rise in production- or import-induced increase in wheat quantity, and a decline in wheat price, to examine the dynamic effects on the U.S. wheat market and on processed wheat-related prices downstream. U.S. trade negotiators at the upcoming WTO agricultural round, Federal policy makers, farmers, and agribusiness agents should be interested in the dynamic patterns with which negotiated trade conditions, farm policy alterations, and climatic variation influence wheat quantity and price, and in turn the price of more highly processed wheat-based products downstream.     

An Analysis of Dynamic Economic Relationships: An Application to the U.S. Hog Market

Recent advances in multiple time-series analysis are discussed and applied to data from the U.S. hog market. Vector-autoregressive and moving-average representations are derived and interpreted with respect to implied dynamic relationships among the variables.
Desprogrès récents dans l'analyse des séries temporelles multiples sont présentes el utilisés pour l'analyse des données sur le marché porcin aux Etats- Unis. Deux representations, la premiere vectorielle el autoregressive et la seconde moyennes mobiles, sont dérivées et interpretées selon les relations dynamiques implicites des variables.     

Basis Pricing, Futures-Cash Price Transmission and Appropriate Hedge Ratios: The Case of the Soybean Market in Ontario

The academic literature on the determination of risk-minimizing hedge ratios has apparently ignored the potential impact that the pricing strategies adopted by the grain elevators may have on the futures-cash price transmission, and therefore on the determination of the correct hedge ratio. This paper addresses this problem from a theoretical perspective, and then develops a model that is applied to the soybean market in Chatham, Ontario.
La littérature académique concernant la détermination des ratios de couverture à terme minimisant le risque a apparemment ignoré l'impact potential des stratégies des faiseurs de prix sur un marché sur la relation entre les prix spot et les prix à terme. II est possible que de ce fait ces stratégies influencent également la détermination du vrai ratio de couverture. Ce papier traite ce problème d'un point de vue théorique, puis vérifie ces résultats en les appliquant au cas du marché du soja à Chatham, Ontario.     

Production Contracts and Productivity in the U.S. Hog Sector

This article measures the impact of contracting on partial and total factor productivity and the production technology of U.S. hog operations. A sample selection model accounts for the fact that unobservable variables may be correlated with both the operators' decision to contract and farm productivity. Results indicate that the use of production contracts is associated with a substantial increase in factor productivity, and represents a technological improvement over independent production. Results also identify determinants of farmers' decisions to contract and other factors influencing farm productivity.     

Size and Productivity in the U.S. Milling and Baking Industries

From the late 1950s through mid-1990s, productivity growth in U.S. grain milling and feed manufacturing has been consistently strong and positive. In grain milling, approximately 15% of the growth is due to size economies. Technical change has been capital-using, increasingly material-saving, and, in recent years, decreasingly labor-saving or increasingly labor-using. The quality of capital has risen relative to that of labor and materials. In all but the baking industry, capital intensification and incentives for plant size growth remain unabated.