对世界经济一体化新特征的一些思考

世界经济一体化从最初出现发展到现在已发生了根本性变化。世贸组织的成立、金融国际化以及生产一体化使经济一体化向纵深发展,区域经济活跃,成为一体化的热点。面对全球经济一体化浪潮,我们应从调整产业结构入手,发展具有国际化的中国市场。目前,全方位、高速发展的全球经济一体化对我国来说是本世纪最后一次发展机会,决不可放过     

试论国际化经营的产业战略

由于我国与发达国家相比经济技术水平存在很大的梯度差且是一个国内拥有巨大市场潜力的大国,这就决定了我国企业实施国际化经营决不是一般意义上的开拓国际市场,而在于充分利用国际经济资源,通过国际竟争,提高自身的技术创新、组织创新及制度创新能力,推动我国的产业结构调整、升级的过程。因而认真研究世界范围内产业结构调整规律,充分利用国际间技术转移,是提高国际化经营效果的一个具有现实意义的课题。一、国际化经营与世界范围的产业结构调整及技术转移的关系企业制订国际化经营战略应依据自身在国际分工中的地位,参与国际分工…     

后金融危机时代促进我国产业结构优化升级的对策

后金融危机时代全球经济出现的新特点,引发了全球产业结构的重新调整,势必给我国产业结构带来巨大影响,对产业结构升级提出了更高的要求。而我国产业结构中存在的诸多问题尚未解决,产业升级的压力更大、难度更高。本文从科技创新、扩大内需、大力发展第三产业、发展低碳经济等方面提出了促进我国产业结构优化升级的对策建议。     

金融危机视角下中国产业结构调整与提升研究

愈演愈烈的金融危机对我国经济带来了很大的冲击,同时也给我国产业结构调整提供了难得的机遇。分析了金融危机影响较大的产业,主要有纺织、玩具、钢铁等;并对这些产业的行业特征进行了研究,发现这些产业具有高污染、高耗能以及劳动密集两大特点;最后对我国的产业结构调整和提升提出了相关的对策。     

产业结构调整的影响因素及其变动趋势

产业结构调整与优化是当前我国经济面临的必答题.本文在分析产业结构调整的影响因素基础上,针对产业结构间及各产业内部变动趋势,提出未来我国产业结构调整与优化的发展方向,为我国产业结构优化提供借鉴.     

我国产业结构调整的影响因素分析

现代经济快速发展主要通过产业结构优化升级来实现,而产业结构优化升级则依靠产业结构调整.分析产业结构调整影响因素及影响程度是产业结构调整的基础.本文将投入产出理论与对数平均迪氏指数分解法相结合,构建产业结构调整影响因素新模型,将其用于分析我国产业结构影响因素的影响程度,以寻求我国产业结构调整规律,旨在为国家产业结构调整及优化升级提供政策依据.     

我国未来产业结构的发展趋势及热点行业

我国产业结构逐步趋于协调,并向优化和升级的方向发展,而对入世,我国产业结构调整和整合的深度、广度将进一步扩大,产业联系的国际化程度将不断加深,产业结构将日益演化成为一个开放结构,对相关产业发展产生深远的影响,孕育诸多新的行业投资机会.农业仍是基础产业;能源、交通是战略重点产业;通信信息业发展前景广阔;生物医药、新材料、新能源等行业中的高技术含量是未来市场的热点;电子、计算机、汽车等行业将面临困境;金融、房地产、旅游、休闲等第三产业最具发展潜力和空间;外贸行业将迎来全新机遇等.     

当前我国产业结构调整的三大趋势

产业结构是由一国的经济发展水平、经济发展过程与经济条件所决定的,是衡量一个国家发展水平的尺度。目前,我国在向市场经济转轨过程中,产业结构调整,特别是工业结构调整出现了新的变化,值得注意的是产业结构调整明显地由数量型向质量型转化;由计划型向市场型转化与产业结构调整的国际化新趋势     

目前我国橡胶机械行业竞争力发展对策研究

本文通过对当前我国橡胶机械行业发展现状的分析,得出了我国橡胶机械行业要想在当今的金融危机中抓住机遇,进军国际市场,就必须要优化产业结构,加大科技开发和自主创新力度,增强企业的国际化品牌意识,建立完善的国际售后服务体系,增强企业的国际竞争实力的结论。     

强化企业集团资金管理应对金融危机

在当前全球金融危机向我国实体经济蔓延和"远未见底"的情况下,强化资金管理,夯基础、保生存、求发展是企业集团应对金融危机、实现产业结构调整与优化、参与国际竞争的有效举措和最佳契机.     

A Tribute to Hyman P. Minsky

In this article, we examine financial crises after the Bretton Woods period using a new virulence index. After summarizing financial crises after Bretton Woods, we analyze aspects of four separate crises in a virulence index. The index includes measures of contagion, as well as impacts on economic, financial and social indicators. We find that financial crises have increased in virulence over time.     

金融体系制度性顺周期机制： 理论与实证分析

内生于金融体系的顺周期属性会显著放大经济“繁荣-萧条周期”并导致金融不稳定，是20世纪70年代以来全球范围内金融危机频发的重要启示之一。与传统文献关注金融体系“自身行为顺周期效应”不同，本文聚集于“制度性顺周期效应”，从资本监管、贷款损失拨备制度以及公允价值会计准则等三个典型事例切入，对金融体系的制度性顺周期机制进行系统阐述。结果表明，根植于金融部门与实体经济中间的制度性正反馈机制与经济波动程度存在较强的相关性，是导致金融不稳定的重要原因。     

Liberalization,Regulatory Delays and Vulnerability to Systemic Banking Crisis

This work aims at contributing to the improvement of the early warning systems of banking crises using a new approach accounting for model uncertainty. We show that a multinomial logit model based on Bayesian model averaging (BMA) is a good strategy to predict banking crisis. To do this, we argue that differences in vulnerability to banking crisis can be largely explained by an asymmetry between financial market evolution and regulation update on a sample of 49 developed and developing countries between 1980 and 2010. When markets are liberalized, competition pushes bankers to take more risks and take advantage of regulatory delays thus increasing crises probabilities. Our empirical evidence supports that crisis probability is higher in country liberalizing their banking system when regulation is not updated. We developed an early warning system for systemic banking crises based on the multinomial logit model. Its main difference to existing prediction models and its contribution to the literature is that it is intended to identify and resolve what is called by Bussiere and Fratzscher [(2006). Towards a new early warning system of financial crises. Journal of International Money and Finance, 25(6), 953–973] as post-crisis bias in binomial models and to develop a new methodology of leading indicators selection based on BMA. Overall, our model predicts all banking crises during our sample period.     

Evaluating international financial integration under leverage constraints

The global financial crisis has undermined many economists' views about the benefits of open financial markets. Anecdotal evidence seems to indicate that financial linkages may propagate shocks during crises. This paper develops a simple two-country model in which financial liberalisation across countries takes place in the presence of credit market distortions within countries. Countries may be subject to macro risk coming from productivity shocks and direct shocks to the credit system (‘financial shocks’). Three different degrees of financial linkages between countries are examined. It is shown that the type of financial integration is critical for both macroeconomic outcomes and welfare. In particular, financial integration in bond markets alone may increase aggregate consumption volatility and reduce welfare. Financial integration in both bond and equity markets generates high positive co-movement across countries, but is welfare-improving.     

The short- and long-run impacts of financial crises on youth unemployment in OECD countries

The impact of financial crises on the youth unemployment rate (YUR), compared to the total unemployment rate (UR), is estimated for a panel of OECD countries over the period 1981–2009, using bias-corrected dynamic panel data estimators of short- and long-run coefficients. Both YUR and UR are found highly persistent. Also, short- and long-run effects of financial crises on YUR are significantly large, respectively, some 1.9 and 1.5–1.7 times higher than the short- and long-run effects on UR. Similar results are found for the unemployment impacts of GDP growth lagged 1 year and institutional variables. These results are robust to various dynamic specifications.     

Could the global financial crisis improve the performance of the G7 stocks markets?

Financial crises are normally associated with negative effects on financial markets. In this article, we investigate whether the most recent global financial crisis (GFC) had any positive impact on the G7 (Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the United Kingdom and the United States) indices. To conduct the analysis we employ the mean–variance (MV) analysis, CAPM statistics, Hurst exponent, runs test, multiple variation ratio test and stochastic dominance (SD) tests. Our MV and CAPM results conclude that most of the G7 stock indices are significantly less volatile. The results from Hurst exponent, run tests and multiple variation ratio confirm that efficiency improved in the post-GFC period. Finally, our SD results conclude that there is no arbitrage opportunity and the markets are efficient due to the GFC, and, in general, investors prefer investing in the indices after the GFC. Overall, we conclude that the GFC led to markets that are more efficient and mature, confirming that crises can also have positive impacts on stock markets. These findings provide important information for investors and market regulators.     

国际金融体系的构造缺陷与亚洲金融危机的内在联系

近年来国际金融危机频发,这些危机的原因除了发生危机的国家的内在因素之外,更主要的还与其外在的整个国际货币金融体系存在着的巨大构造性缺陷息息相关。     

后金融危机时期互利共赢开放战略的调整方向

互利共赢开放策略是中国30多年开放的经验总结和指导对外开放的基本原则,受到近几年国际金融危机的影响。在后国际金融危机时期,世界经济格局和重建平衡的发展趋势、世界经济增长模式转型、国际金融体系和技术变革以及贸易保护主义的趋势等都要求对互利共赢开放战略进行调整,可以采取以下转换路径：积极开展国际经济合作和区域经济一体化建设,参与重建国际经济秩序与推进人民币国际化,提升人力资本素质和加强科技创新。     

Anatomy of a financial crisis

This paper provides an asymmetric information framework for understanding the nature of financial crises. It provides the following precise definition of a financial crisis: A financial crisis is a disruption to financial markets in which adverse selection and moral hazard problems become much worse, so that financial markets are unable to efficiently channel funds to those who have the most productive investment opportunities. As a result, a financial crisis can drive the economy away from an equilibrium with high output in which financial markets perform well to one in which output declines sharply. The asymmetric information framework explains the patterns in the data and many features of these crises which are otherwise hard to explain. It indicates that financial crises have effects over and above those resulting from bank panics and therefore provides a rationale for an expanded lender-of-last-resort role for the central bank in which the central bank uses the discount window to provide liquidity to sectors outside of the banking system.     

The future of financial markets: financial crisis avoidance

This article considers the lessons from the global financial crisis for redesigning the financial system and its regulation to make the chance of future such crises lower. It focuses on three areas: improvements to the regulation of individual financial firms; macroprudential analysis and improving the structure of crisis resolution and management. It argues that if the authorities implement a credible crisis management regime where no firm is too big to be resolved, a smarter and more incentive based approach to the regulation of individual financial firms and extensive macroprudential analysis that both makes the structure of financial markets less risky and identifies risks, the risk of future crises will be reduced. But no framework can eliminate the risk altogether.