美国不同时期的住房补贴政策:实施效果的评价及启发

本文研究了美国住房政策70年的演变历程,着重分析了公共住房计划、购房补贴计划(235条款)、租房补贴计划(236条款)以及第8条款中的住房津贴计划、代金券计划等重要的住房补贴计划,对这些补贴计划的实施效果进行了评价,为我国研究住房政策提供有价值的参考.     

政府保障房供求补贴的不同效果

解决中低收入人群的基本住房问题是实现社会公平的基本国策之一。为了有效地实施保障性安居工程,通过构建数学模型研究在财政补贴率相同的条件下,住房消费补贴与住房供给补贴的成交价格、成交量与社会福利情况,可以发现这两者之间存在较大的差别,前者的成交价格、成交量和社会福利都高于后者,但前者比后者的财政补贴额更多。如果提高财政补贴率,那么前者成交价格会不断提高,而后者成交价格会不断降低,成交量都会呈现扩大趋势。成交价格、成交量和社会福利不但与财政补贴率及其补贴方式有关,也与住房的需求弹性和供给弹性有关。研究结论的政策意义在于,如果在政府财力有限、住房价格上涨压力较大的条件下,应当采用住房供给补贴;如果在政府财力相对宽松、住房价格上涨压力相对较小、依靠住房拉动经济增长的压力较大的条件下,则应当采用住房消费补贴,同时它还能实现公平与效率兼顾的目的。无论是采用住房消费补贴还是住房供给补贴,都应当增大供给弹性,减小需求弹性。     

Home safety,accessibility, and elderly health: Evidence from falls

This article presents estimates of the impact of home safety and accessibility features on the prevention of serious, non-fatal falls for elderly widowed individuals. As these features are not randomly assigned across homes, we develop an instrumental variable (IV) strategy that relies on the differential decline in the health and functional status of spouses to identify impacts. Specifically, we use the deceased spouse’s functional status when alive, as measured by limits to Activities of Daily Living (ADLs), as an IV for the presence of home safety and accessibility features for the surviving spouse in the years after widowhood, and then estimate the effect of these features on the likelihood of a serious fall for the widow using rich longitudinal data from the Health and Retirement Study. The presence of such features reduces the likelihood of a fall requiring medical treatment by 20 percentage points, a substantial effect. However, falls are not the type of health shock that is a main driver of housing tenure transitions among the elderly. Although somewhat speculative, cost–benefit estimates suggest that investments in home safety for the elderly may generate in the short run as much as a dollar-for-dollar reduction in medical expenditures.     

我国保障性住房分配风险防控研究——以江苏省淮安市为例

保障性住房居住成本低、买卖价差大,在保障性住房分配中容易出现腐败、分配不公等情况,因此保降性住房分配—直是住房保障工作的重点,如何防范在分配中的各种风险将会影响到住房保障工作的顺利实施。对现行保障性住房分配机制存在的风险以及产生的原因予以分析,并以江苏省保障住房工作成绩突出的淮安市为例,提出控制保障性住房分配风险的对策与建议。     

囤房现象形成的原因、影响与治理策略

研究目的:解释我国城市居民热衷囤房的原因,分析这一行为对宏观经济与居民家庭生活的影响,提出治理这一行为的策略.研究方法:基于住房特殊属性的归纳法和比较分析法.研究结果:在制度诱因和心理作用驱使下,居民将高储蓄率偏好转化为了囤房动机,使住房由一般消费品转为实物储蓄.由于住房的若干基本属性和衍生效应,长期大规模地图房将造成资源浪费,阻碍了住房公平,削弱了青年家庭的购买能力.研究结论:迫切需要采取政策干预引导住房不再成为“房币”.     

住房调控政策问题:质疑、解读与建议

在住房是商品的片面认识导引下,一次房改后住房体制陷入商保失调的另一个极端状态,导致房困问题难以破解并影响宏观经济可持续发展。针对于此,国字号住房调控政策密集出台,但由于未从住房两板块结构出发分类加以调控,某些层面的调控效果不尽人意,也由此受到质疑。本文对此进行解读并给出有关政策建议。     

政府与市场关系视角下住房问题治理对策研究

城市住房领域政府与市场关系的研究,对有效解决我国城市住房问题具有重要理论价值和政策含义。在多元经济学范式下分析政府与市场的关系,结合住房和住房市场的特性,探寻社会相互作用的两种基本规则：市场与政府解决住房问题的边界,构建了住房领域政府与市场关系的理论分析框架。在该框架下,探讨我国城市住房问题求解的思路及对策：完善住房市场、健全住房保障体系,发挥“第三方”的作用,促进我国住房市场健康持续发展。     

Housing supply price elasticities revisited: Evidence from international, national, local and company data

This paper re-examines one of the key parameters in housing economics – the price elasticity of housing supply. In the international literature, there is little agreement on its value or even on the appropriate methodology for its measurement. The paper argues that different spatial scales capture different aspects of the problem and, therefore, there is merit from comparing results at international, national, local and firm level. Using standardised models, there is evidence that the responsiveness of housing supply to market conditions is lower in Britain than in the US or Australia. However, supply is more responsive to the change in house prices than their level. With exceptions, most past research on supply in Britain concentrates on the national or regional dimensions. The paper finds that there are also insights to be obtained from examining local and firm level data. Local estimation across the Thames Gateway shows the importance of planning constraints on supply elasticities, but historical patterns of land use and geography are also important. Firm level data indicate that supply elasticities are greater for large firms than for small firms.     

Housing market dynamics: Evidence of mean reversion and downward rigidity

House prices often exhibit serial correlation and mean reversion. Using two large panel datasets, this paper analyzes the price dynamics in two significantly different types of markets, cyclical (or volatile) and non-cyclical (or tame), by applying an autoregressive mean reversion (ARMR) model. Our results show that cyclical markets have larger AR coefficients than non-cyclical markets. As a result, house prices in cyclical markets tend to have larger price cycles. We also find that the upward periods have larger AR coefficients than the downward periods. This demonstrates that house prices are likely to overshoot the equilibrium in appreciating markets while experiencing downward rigidity during periods of decline. The model developed in this paper can produce a forecast with rich house price dynamics across markets. Our results can also be used to determine how house prices in overvalued markets will ultimately adjust.     

政府干预、市场预期与限价房实施——基于广州限价房申购者的问卷分析

本文以广州的限价房实施为例,认为限价房作为政府干预住房的一种方式,主要目的是通过调控使房价稳定在与居民收入水平相适应的合理水平,缓解中等收入自住型的购房压力。这是对市场机制缺陷的弥补而不是取代,重在调节而不是保障,也是既有别于以政府主导为原则的住房保障政策,也有别于以市场调节为主导的其他商品住宅政策。     

Housing capital-gains taxation and homeowner mobility: Evidence from the Taxpayer Relief Act of 1997

We provide new evidence on the impact of housing capital-gains taxation on homeowner behavior by examining residential mobility before and after the Taxpayer Relief Act of 1997 (TRA97), which generated the most sweeping reform of capital-gains taxation in the last two decades. In addition to lowering marginal tax rates on long-term capital gains for all assets, TRA97 also eliminated any differential treatment of housing gains above and below age 55, allowing all homeowners to qualify for capital-gains exclusions. Utilizing data drawn from the Current Population Survey (CPS) on either side of the law change (1996 and 1998) on homeowners just above (56–58 year olds) and below (52–54 year olds) the age-55 threshold and a reduced-form, difference-in-difference empirical approach, our estimates suggest that the repeal of the differential capital-gains tax treatment by age embodied in TRA97 had an economically important and statistically significant impact on the residential mobility of under-55 homeowners. Across a variety of specifications, the repeal raised the mobility rate by around 1–1.4 percentage points, which, for a mean mobility rate of 4 percentage points, represented an increase in the mobility rate of homeowners in their early 50s by 22–31%. Furthermore, the bulk of this effect was concentrated among highly mobile homeowners who a priori were more likely to have wanted to trade down (e.g., divorced, empty nesters), those facing higher capital gains tax rates, and those living in states that had experienced higher rates of nominal appreciation.     

居家养老:住房与社区照顾的联结

借鉴国外实现居家养老的住宅建设经验,分析中国老年人居住环境存在的问题,从老人与环境适应的理论视角,认为改善住房条件与实施社区照顾的统合考虑是解决老年人养老问题的较好思路,并提出若干建议.     

房价,地方政府与经济人行为逻辑

房价持续快速上涨的原因是多方面的,地方政府的行为值得认真分析,本文认为借助经济人假设能很好地分析地方政府表现出的房价助推行为是为了自身利益的最大化,因此对中央政府的宏观调控不会认真对待.解决这一问题,也应该重视经济人行为逻辑,进行体制改革.     

浅谈高层房屋建筑的标准、施工技术要点及易被忽略的环节

随着我国高层房屋建筑的蓬勃发展,并结合自己的多年的高层房屋建筑的工作经验,对高层房屋建筑的施工技术要点及其易被忽略的环节进行一定的介绍、分析和总结。     

保障房物业管理问题及对策分析——以南京市保障房物业管理为例

本文以南京市保障房物业管理为例,针对保障房物业管理中存在的问题提出了合理化建议。     

陕西凤县县城周边农村农房抗震效果研究及优化

2008年5月12日汶川特大地震的造成的影响波及陕西省宝鸡市凤县,该地区农村中相当数量的房屋出现墙体开裂,坍塌等严重后果。本课题研究小组对凤县县城周围农村农房进行建房场地,用材,结构等方面进行实地调查,通过运用工程力学、抗震结构设计等方法对该地区农房做出相应的抗震优化方案。此抗震优化方案能有效地减少地震造成的重大损失,同时科研小组进行实地调研时当地政府也给予了很大的支持,这也表明社会正逐步加强对农房抗震的关注程度。本科研小组提供的有效抗震优化方案能改进农房建造过程中存在的抗震不足之处,进而减少广大农民因地震而引起的生命财产损失,具有重要的理论和现实意义。     

城市廉租房建设规模的对策分析:以江苏省为例

在江苏省13地市进行抽样调查的基础上,采用情景分析法,确定江苏省城市廉租房的建设规模及其情景模式.结果表明:在1%廉租房保障水平下,最低需要建设的廉租房面积约为250万m2,在5%廉租房保障水平下,最高需要建设的廉租房面积约为1883万m2,最高和最低保障面积相差约7.5倍,显然廉租房的建设要分步骤、分阶段实现,不能采取一刀切的一步到位方式.在此基础上对廉租房的来源及管理体制提出相应的发展对策,供有关决策部门参考.     

Cooperative Islands in Capitalist Waters: Limited‐equity Housing Cooperatives,Urban Renewal and Gentrification

Improving the habitat of residents in central‐city neighbourhoods without simultaneously gentrifying these is becoming a pressing dilemma in right‐to‐housing and right‐to‐the‐city agendas, both in the global North and the global South. This article explores what possibilities limited‐equity housing cooperativism can bring to the table. Insights are drawn from two urban ‘renewal’ processes in which limited‐equity housing cooperatives have played an important role: in Vesterbro (Copenhagen) and Ciudad Vieja (Montevideo). The article analyses the everyday politics within and around these cooperatives through a broader institutional and political‐economy lens. This approach sheds light on mechanisms of inclusion and exclusion that operate within these cooperatives, as well as on the processes through which they have been directly and indirectly implicated in the displacement of low‐income neighbours. Despite providing a grassroots housing alternative for local ‘non‐owners’, individual cooperatives participate in, and are vulnerable to, urban transformations that traverse multiple scales. They are inserted, moreover, within wide‐ranging unequal social structures that the cooperative's formal equality has limited tools to offset. The ways in which cooperatives interlink as a sector and how this sector relates to the state are two key dimensions to be considered in challenging capitalist‐space economies.     

浙江农民工流失与财政对策研究——以农民工廉租房为突破口

农民工是浙江经济发展的主要劳动力,农民工流失将成为浙江经济持续发展的瓶颈。本文通过分析得出在浙江刘易斯拐点已经显现,未来浙江籍农民工数量将大幅度减少,外地农民工返乡危机潜在,进而提出以农民工廉租房为突破口等财税对策,留住农民工。     

Transitions to self-employment at older ages: The role of wealth,health, health insurance and other factors

Relatively little research has been devoted to studying self-employment among older workers although they make up a disproportionate share of the self-employed workforce. This study uses 5 waves of panel data from the Health and Retirement Study to investigate the determinants of labor force transitions to self-employment at older ages. We estimate a multinomial logit model of transitions from wage and salary employment to self-employment, retirement or not working. Results are compared with those found in previous studies. New findings on the impact of health on transitions to self-employment are highlighted.