我国封闭式基金绩效实证分析

文章利用Fama的归属分析模型对我国封闭式基金绩效进行分解,通过对选择收益率和风险收益率的分析,寻找封闭式基金收益的真正来源,通过实证分析得出结论:基金经理带来的选择收益比较明显,基金经理有较强择股能力和风险控制能力。     

基于VaR-GARCH模型的开放式基金风险实证分析

投资风格不同的开放式基金,其风险程度不同,而高收益对应高风险.本文选取三只不同投资风格的开放式基金,基于广义自回归条件异方差GARCH模型,使用标准t(d)分布拟合方法分别计算各个基金的VaR值,结果表明三只样本基金的收益率序列都具有典型的金融数据统计特征,其中股票型基金风险最大,债券型风险最小.混合型风险居中,说明此模型具有一定的实际意义     

浅析证券投资基金业绩评估方法

投资者应用业绩评价时,要兼顾的方面包括:单位净资产净值和投资收益率,还有每只基金的投资风险水平,并且必须要对指标进行一定的调整。本文描述了几种常规的基金业绩评估方法,包括传统的指数方法,和数据包络分析方法。     

股指期货在我国开放式基金风险控制中的作用

我国开放式基金面临的最大风险是股市系统性风险和流动性风险。股指期货在开放式基金的风险管理中既规避其市场系统性风险,又控制其流动性风险。同时,股指期货具有资产配置功能,对优化基金投资组合,提高投资收益率起到不可替代的作用。     

地方社保基金投资股市破冰——是福是祸

近年来,由于我国利率水平长期下行,地方社保基金收益率水平长期跑输CPI,面临极大的贬值风险,地方社保金划拨给全国社保基金统筹管理的方案已获得中国国务院通过。反对入市者认为社保基金是养命钱,不能有任何亏损。支持者认为多年来地方社保基金投资收益率低,现行的投资方式不能达到保值增值的目的,还不如去承受给予相对收益的风险。从地方社保基金的发展历程来看国内国外都有成功的案例,因此地方社保基金投资股市也有一套风险可控的成熟投资机制。     

流动性风险因子差异与封闭式基金折价关系研究

封闭式基金折价问题是长期以来困扰资本市场的一个难题.通过研究封闭式基金及其资产净值收益率的截面数据,检验了封闭式基金及其资产组合的流动性风险贴水差异,包括附加在基金及资产组合的风险收益和相关因子,如基金代理成本、基金管理业绩预期及Fama-French三因子等与基金折价的关系.实证检验的结果表明,国内封闭式基金流动性风险附加因子的差异可以部分解释封闭式基金交易折价现象.     

封闭式基金投资价值的均值半标准差及其综合收益率分析

本文认为，在不允许卖空的证券市场中，证券收益率的向上波动是大多数投资者的行为偏好所致，以证券收益率的方差作为投资风险测度的马克维茨（Markowitz）模型并不适合这一市场类型。文章指出，依据统计学半标准差的方法可以区分投资过程的上方风险和下方风险；同时，如果考虑证券收益率的均值，则可以运用行为均值半标准差综合收益率方法，探索出一种新的封闭式基金投资价值的分析方法。本文的分析可视为对封闭式基金投资价值之评判的一种新的理解。     

基金定投分析

基金定期定额投资业务有投资成本加权平均的优点,能有效降低整体投资的成本,使得价格波动的风险下降,进而提升获利的机会,因而日渐受到投资者青睐。本文首先根据自身情况,选定定投基金类型,接着根据基金成立时间、基金累计单位净值、基金的平均年化收益率、基金夏普指数、机构投资者持有比例、选股能力、基金经理、基金评级,共8个指标选择最适合的基金作为投资对象,最终选出嘉实增长混合基金作为长期定投产品。     

开放式基金业绩与VaR风险持续性比较研究

分别采用列联表和横截面回归方法,选择基金净值收益率、Jensen指数度量基金业绩,VaR度量基金收益风险,分析2004年1月～2008年4月间我国开放式基金中的股票型基金与混合型基金业绩和风险的持续性,及其在牛市和熊市阶段的不同表现,发现仅在2004年～2005年期间基金经过风险调整的业绩具有持续性,在其它阶段,基金业绩和风险均没有显著持续性;当市场从牛市转为震荡调整阶段后,基金业绩出现反转现象,而风险具有显著的持续性。     

上海股票市场收益率分布模型统计研究

在金融市场迅速发展、金融创新不断深入的今天,股票市场的波动也日益加剧,风险明显增大,资产收益率的分布形态也更加复杂化。对上证综指对数收益率序列进行实证研究,依据严密的统计分析方法建立了GARCH-t(1,1)模型。最后,通过相应的模型检验方法验证了GARCH-t(1,1)模型能够很好的刻画上证综指对数收益率序列的统计特征。     

中国住房公积金制度的问题及改革方向

《上海市住房公积金条例》的产生先于中国《住房公积金管理条例》。受制于劣质土地财政,住房保障并没有成为中国住房公积金制度的基本职能。中国的住房公积金制度既不反映保障性住宅的供给,也不反映保障性住宅的需求。中国住房公积金某种程度上不是住房保障基金,而是住房储蓄资金。城市劳动力价值支持基础上的保障性住宅供求衔接是中国《住房公积金管理条例》的改革方向。     

住房消费因素在工资收入中的比重分析

在住房分配货币化实施过程中,住房补贴额度的确定问题是其难点之一。在职工收入中已经包含的住房消费因素,包括工资收入、住房公积金以及房租补贴等。同时,对住房补贴额度的两种测算方法要进行比较分析,用实例来验证两种测算方法的差异,其中有一种测算方法是有错误的。     

基金公司拓展电子营销渠道探析

电子商务是基金公司改变依赖传统代销渠道、建立低成本及自主可控的新型营销渠道的有效手段,如何有效拓展基金销售通路、提升基金销售效率是基金公司日益关注的问题。通过基金公司当前网上交易模式的比较与分析,提出基金公司开展电子商务的优势,认为目前制约基金公司电子营销发展的"瓶颈"在于电子支付与结算,并给出基金公司如何有效开展电子商务及提升电子交易业务的若干建议。     

证券投资基金管理费用的实证分析

采用多元线性回归方法,以2000-2003年我国已发行基金为研究对象,对年度基金管理费用与基金业绩、规模之间的关系进行了实证分析。结果表明:基金业绩、规模在2000年和2001年是影响基金管理费的主要因素;但自从2002年证监会全面停止提取业绩报酬之后,基金业绩对管理费用的影响不再显著,甚至出现了基金收益系数为负的怪现象。在此基础上,提出了对我国基金管理费用改革的几点建议。     

外贸企业集团对全资子公司实施有效的财务控制初探

外贸企业集团对全资子公司实施有效的财务控制,目的是通过集团整体资源的优化配置,战略有效协同,提升外贸企业国际竞争力,最终实现股东财富最大化。但由于外贸企业集团全资子公司的经营环境目前存在很多弊端,导致财务失实、资金调配、现金监管、货物资产管理以及或有事项风险失控等现状。只有实施科学的财务控制模式,形成子公司基金资源多元化,多渠道筹集资金,合理避税,有效缓解资金短缺,才能促进集团资源一体化的规模经济健康发展。     

浅谈基金销售渠道多元化

本文分析了传统基金销售渠道的优劣后，介绍了近年来新兴的网络销售渠道、基金第三方销售渠道、基金超市三种销售渠道的特点及功能。     

Venture capital in transition: A Monte-Carlo simulation of changes in investment patterns

This article examines the nature of the investment process which has historically generated high returns for venture capital funds, and the impact on fund returns of perceived changes in management practice and the structure of the industry. The article outlines some policy implications for fund managers, investors, and the general management of corporations.The authors have investigated the investment process and the changes in the nature of the process through the use of a Monte-Carlo simulation model. Information gathered from interviews with fund managers and the available published data on venture fund performance (including proprietary surveys) was used to develop and calibrate the model. The model replicates the relatively high average fund returns and distribution of returns for funds through the early 1980s. The model simulates a multistaged investment process which draws on a pool of investment opportunities which have a log normal distribution of returns and a low (zero) average return. The model readily permits the exploration of the impact of management and industry practices on fund returns.The conditions identified by the authors, which led to high rates of return on the part of venture capital funds, include:

• 1.1) multistaged investment or commitment of funds on an incremental basis with evaluation of venture performance before commitment of additional fund;
• 2.2) objective evaluation of venture performance with the clear distinguishing of winners from losers;
• 3.3) parlaying funds or having the confidence to commit further funds to ventures identified as winners;
• 4.4) persistence of returns from one round to the next, which implies that valuable information is gained from previous rounds of investment in the same venture;
• 5.5) long-term holding of investment portfolios for a period sufficient for geometric averaging of compound returns to cause the winners to “take over” or raise portfolio returns.

Taken together, these conditions have permitted venture capital funds to historically realize strong average returns with a few of them realizing extraordinary returns.The article also explores the consequences of what some believe is happening in the industry: a trend toward holding investments for shorter periods, increased competition both for investments and later in the product-market arena, and a growing lack of loyalty between investors and investees. All of these conditions and their indirect consequences were shown by the model to negatively impact the limited partners in the venture capital funds while general partners, given the structure of fees and the distribution of investment returns, generally realized a reasonable to extraordinary return. The article outlines a number of management and investment policy implications for investors and fund managers.     

Private equity performance and capital flows: Evidence from China

For more than 1500 private equity funds in China over the period from 1992 to 2013, we construct fund level performance metrics with investment level return data and examine performance and capital flows. The median (mean) fund IRR, net of fees, is 9.0% (51.7%), based on a sample that controls for survivorship bias. Fund IRRs are neither related to fund own characteristics, such as fund size, nor to overall market conditions around the time when the fund is raised. Competition reduces fund performance: returns are lower when there are many competitors entering the industry at the same time. Although experienced partnerships are more likely to raise a follow-on fund and to raise more capital, fund performance is not related to general partnership (GP) investment experience. Further, there is no performance persistence across funds managed by the same GP. Lastly, there is some evidence of investor maturity when judged on GPs' historical performance. This evidence characterizes a burgeoning yet immature PE industry in China.     

Gravitation Toward Prior Performance in Mutual Fund Advertisings: Do Consumer Investors' Processing Abilities Account for Biased Information Processing?

This study examines the cognitive processes involved in consumer investors' information processing of mutual fund characteristics. We tested whether consumer investors' limited processing abilities account for biased return perceptions, as reported in the literature. Consumer investors' processing abilities were manipulated by varying the duration of information exposure time to a mutual fund advertisement. Experimental results suggest that a longer time spent by consumer investors learning about mutual fund characteristics resulted in reduced reliance on prior fund performance as a heuristic cue, which in turn resulted in an unbiased processing of mutual fund characteristics. In contrast, when consumer investors spent less time learning about mutual fund characteristics, prior fund performance significantly affected subsequent return expectations and argument persuasiveness of the mutual fund advertisement. These findings suggest that disclaimers warning that past performance does not guarantee future results are ineffective when consumer investors have limited attention and lower processing abilities .     

试论“私募基金”在我国的发展

私募基金作为一种投资工具在我国还尚未正式出现 ,而是以各种形式存在于地下。必须对私募基金进行常识性的介绍、分类和比较 ,才能看出私募基金的规范和健康发展对我国经纪业、证券业、资本市场乃至整个国民经济产业结构具有深远影响。并且显示出私募基金的存在是资本增殖内在要求这一主题。可以说私募基金的发展具有历史必然性和现实迫切性