双寡头竞争下最优进口贸易政策选择

文章在水平差别产品的伯川德模型中对从量和从价关税进行了分析比较。研究发现,效用函数必须满足一些严格的假设,才能保证征收关税将改善本国社会福利。从量关税的进口限制效果明显强于从价关税。但对于均衡从量关税,总存在一个对能给本国带来更高社会福利的从价关税。两者的差距取决于均衡点本国市场对外国产品的需求弹性,需求弹性越小,社会福利差距越大。     

Protection of trade for innovation: the roles of Northern and Southern Tariffs

Using a North–South trade model with innovation and imitation, we investigate the interaction of intellectual property rights (IPR) protection and trade protection. We show that unlike a Southern tariff, a Northern tariff supplements IPR protection and is not necessarily a beggar-thy-neighbor policy. The globally optimal Northern tariff increases as IPR protection in the North or the South decreases. Global welfare may rise as Northern tariff increases, but necessarily declines as Southern tariff increases. This suggests that pushing for freer trade in the South is more urgent than in the North in innovation-intensive sectors where IPR protections are weak in both regions.     

国际寡头市场条件下贸易竞争与联盟的博弈研究综述

20世纪80年代以来，博弈理论和国际贸易理论的结合促进了对国际寡头市场条件下贸易竞争与联盟研究的发展。由于现实贸易环境的改变，研究重心可以概括为三个阶段的博弈模型：自由贸易条件下竞争模型，政策干预条件下的竞争模型和贸易联盟模型。本文在博弈理论发展背景的基础上系统综_述了这一交叉研究发展的动机和已解决的贸易问题，同时指出了当前贸易竞争与联盟研究中所存在的问题和发展前景。     

The role of China in global external imbalances: Some further evidence

The large imbalances in the current account positions of the US and the Asian economies are seen by most scholars as the main threat to an orderly development of the global economy. While the opinions on the most likely evolution of these imbalances and on their sustainability do differ across observers, ranging from catastrophic to rather optimistic views, almost all agree that some adjustment will have to take place in the near future, and that this adjustment will involve, among other things, a rebalancing of saving and demand across the globe. As an outcome of this process, China shall increasingly supplement the US in the role of engine of global economic growth.Using a global macroeconometric model, we examine the impact on this adjustment process of a number of shocks originating in the Chinese economy, including an expansionary fiscal shock, a revaluation of the renmimbi, and an expansion of internal demand following an acceleration in the process of rural–urban migration. The analysis focuses on two related points: how will these shocks affect the medium-run evolution of transpacific imbalances, and what will their impact be on global economic growth. The simulations allow us to track the impact of these shocks on the different poles of the world economy, and to assess their relative contribution to the task of reducing global imbalances without interrupting global economic growth.     

出口机会与进口竞争对工业机器人企业的叠加影响：基于出口持续时间的视角

工业机器人企业是中国推动制造业数字化革命、抢占国际分工制高点战略的主力军,然而其出口持续时间平均不足1年,需引起高度关注。本文基于2000-2015年中国海关数据库和工业企业数据库的匹配数据,运用Cox风险模型分析了出口机会增大和进口竞争加剧对工业机器人企业出口持续时间的影响和作用机制。结果表明,出口机会增大更有利于延长企业出口持续时间,进口竞争加剧则提高了企业的退出率,这一结论在产品多样化程度低、产品核心度低、行业竞争小和市场集中度低的企业中尤为明显;出口机会与进口竞争,主要是通过企业生产率和技术创新的中介作用影响企业的出口持续时间;面对双重叠加影响,工业机器人企业应充分利用产品间的技术关联效应提高出口持续性。     

Competition Policy: What are the Costs and Benefits of Measuring its Costs and Benefits?

Summary  Competition authorities are increasingly measuring the effects of their enforcement actions, seeking a robust justification for the proliferation of competition policy. We highlight the importance of identifying the right counterfactual against which to measure effects, and set out the relevant categories of costs and benefits. We then explore how a balance can be struck between the benefits and inherent limitations of these measurement exercises. Relatively crude analyses of cartel action benefits can be sufficient to achieve public legitimacy for competition policy. Assessing the effects of merger and conduct inquiries is often ambiguous, but could be used to improve decision-making processes. Director and Managing Consultant, respectively, at Oxera, Oxford and London. The valuable comments of Fod Barnes, Kerry Hughes and an anonymous referee are gratefully acknowledged. The opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors alone.     

Autonomy and Effectiveness of Chinese Monetary Policy under the De Facto Fixed Exchange Rate System

This paper uses monthly data to examine the autonomy and effectiveness of monetary policy in China under the de facto fixed exchange rate arrangement in place from 1998 to 2005. The results obtained from Granger causality tests in a vector autoregression framework indicate that： （i） China actually conducted independent monetary policy during the fixed exchange rate period; and （ii） market-oriented policy measures are impotent in influencing real output and prices. The framework of the investigation into the autonomy of monetary policy adapts to the Chinese economic condition that primary loan and deposit rates are set by the central bank. Based on the empirical results, the present paper provides alternative strategies to improve the effectiveness of monetary policy in China, including developing the financial system and solidifying microeconomic fundamentals instead of forcing the adaptation of a more flexible exchange rate regime.     

Regional Business Cycles and National Economic Borders: What Are the Effects of Trade in Developing Countries?

Using regional gross product data for Argentina and Brazil over the period 1961–2000, we find that business cycle synchronization within countries is substantially larger than across them. Factors such as monetary policy and large country-specific shocks play a significant role in explaining this observed border effect. Furthermore, our GMM single and multiple equation estimates based on Brazilian states and Argentinean national data provide indicative evidence that the higher level of trade among regions within a country is an important factor that accounts for differences in output correlations across countries. JEL no. F15, F42, E32, R11     

合作研发中专有投资对合作绩效的影响:技术差异和管理差异的调节作用

文章通过研究总专有投资和专有投资差异与合作绩效的关系,以及合作研发伙伴技术差异和管理差异对这两种关系的调节作用,深入探讨了专有投资对合作绩效的影响。文章通过分析140家合作研发企业的数据,发现总专有投资和专有投资差异对合作绩效的影响是不同的--专有投资总量对合作绩效有促进作用,而专有投资差异对合作绩效有负面影响,同时,合作研发伙伴间的技术差异和管理差异是调节这两种关系的重要情境因素。这些发现不仅丰富了我们关于专有投资与合作绩效之间关系的认知,也增进了我们对专有投资的价值和合作绩效前因变量的理解。同时,在实践中,文章研究可以指导企业在合作研发活动中针对与合作伙伴的差异进行适当的专有投资,促进合作研发目标的实现和绩效的提升。因此,文章具有重要的理论和实践价值。     

Test of the Response of the Overnight Rate to the Real Exchange Rate: The Case of Korea,Hong Kong,and Singapore

Abstract

For Korea, the overnight rate responds positively to the inflation rate, the output gap, the lagged real exchange rate, and the lagged overnight rate and negatively to the current real exchange rate. For Hong Kong, the overnight rate reacts positively to the inflation rate and the lagged overnight rate and does not react to other variables. For Singapore, the overnight rate is affected positively by the output gap and the lagged overnight rate and is not influenced by other variables. Hence, interest rate rules for some industrialized countries may not apply to Korea, Hong Kong, and Singapore.     

Target zones and wealth effects: Current account implications of alternative policy assignments

This paper evaluates the current-account implications of coordinated disinflationary policy in a two-country framework, when fiscal policy is assigned to control inflation and monetary policy is used to hold down the exchange rate at its target zone level. The performance of an alternative regime, where monetary policy controls inflation and fiscal policy is assigned to control the current account is also assessed.     

Measuring the Natural Rate of Interest with Financial Gaps: The Cases of Japan and South Korea

We estimate “finance-adjusted” trend growth and natural rates of Japan and South Korea by extending a semi-structural model of (Laubach and Williams, 2003). Consistent with international evidence of the advanced economies, both trend growth and natural rates of interest of Japan and South Korea have been declining over the past, suggesting the important role of global factors. However, the declining patterns of Japan and South Korea are far steeper during the past 25 years. When considering domestic and global financial factors, trend growth and natural rate of South Korea are more affected by foreign financial factor while the role of domestic financial factor is more pronounced for Japanese economy.     

Central Bank Autonomy,the Exchange Rate Constraint and Inflation: The Case of Italy, 1970–1992

This paper analyzes the determinants of inflation in Italy over the period 1970–1992. Particular emphasis is placed on the role of central bank independence in influencing monetary growth, and on the role of monetary growth and of the Exchange rate Mechanism (ERM) in affecting inflation. In the 1970s and early 1980s, when the Bank of Italy lacked independence and the ERM was still not credible, monetary growth was highly unstable and was the main determinant of Italian inflation, although oil price and tax shocks also played a role. After the March 1983 general exchange rate realignment and the French U-turn, the ERM became more credible and monetary growth stopped being a significant determinant of inflation; instead, the German inflation became the main variable influencing Italian inflation.     

契约型关系下企业顾客资产测量与提升：来自保险业的应用研究

当顾客与企业存在契约关系时,契约期内与契约关系结束后顾客行为特征存在差异,这就意味着在评估单一顾客的终身价值时,需要分别测算契约期内和之后的顾客价值,即当前和潜在价值然后加总。顾客当前价值可根据历史数据进行测算,顾客潜在价值可以通过logit回归分析预测出单一顾客的维系率然后进行评估,进而实现对契约型关系下企业顾客终身价值和顾客资产的测量。研究结果表明,该测量方法在保险业具有很好的适用性和可操作性。同时,以顾客当前价值和潜在价值为细分标准的顾客细分方法也非常有利于顾客资产提升策略的制定。     

Microfinance in Times of Crisis: The Effects of Competition, Rising Indebtedness, and Economic Crisis on Repayment Behavior

This paper analyzes repayment determinants for loans from Caja Los Andes, a Bolivian microlender. The analysis focuses on the influence of recent changes in Bolivia. In particular, we examine the effects of the rapidly growing supply of microloans, the increasing competition, a rising level of indebtedness among microentrepreneurs, and the recent economic crisis. Our results show a twofold influence structure of competition and indebtedness. First, clients with loans from multiple sources at the same time are found to be more likely to default than others. Second, clients with given characteristics have an overall better repayment behavior in areas with higher competition and a higher supply of microloans.     

防风险、稳增长背景下的货币政策预期管理研究——基于消息冲击的DSGE模型分析

货币政策预期管理对于我国防范金融风险、稳定经济增长有重要的作用.通过构建含有托宾Q的新凯恩斯DSGE模型,在不同货币政策规则下引入预期冲击,运用贝叶斯方法对模型进行估计并分析货币政策未预期冲击和预期冲击对宏观经济变量的影响.政策实验分析发现,经济系统受到货币政策预期冲击之后,各主要宏观经济变量产生了消息冲击驱动的经济周期波动,表明货币政策预期管理能够影响到宏观经济运行,经济主体预期在经济系统中能够起到一定传导作用.此外,相对于未预期的货币政策冲击,货币政策预期冲击对宏观经济变量的影响更为平缓,更能起到抵御资产价格巨幅震荡、平滑经济稳定运行的作用.因此,我国央行有必要加强货币政策预期管理,进一步完善货币政策预期管理机制.