TESTING CATCHING‐UP BETWEEN THE DEVELOPING COUNTRIES: “GROWTH RESISTANCE” AND SOMETIMES “GROWTH TRAGEDY”

This paper provides empirical evidence that there is no convergence between the GDP per‐capita of the developing countries since 1950. Relying upon recent econometric methodologies (non‐stationary long‐memory models, wavelet models and time‐varying factor representation models), we show that the transition paths to long‐run growth (the catch‐up dynamics) are very persistent over time and non‐stationary, thereby yielding a variety of potential steady states (conditional convergence). Our findings do not support the idea according to which the developing countries share a common factor (such as technology) that eliminates per‐capita output divergence in the very long run. Instead, we conclude that growth is an idiosyncratic phenomenon that yields different forms of transitional economic performance: growth tragedy (some countries with an initial low level of per‐capita income diverge from the richest ones), growth resistance (with many countries experiencing a low speed of growth convergence), and rapid convergence.     

The “Business Climate” and Economic Inequality

“Business climate indexes” characterize state economic policies, and are often used to try to influence economic policy debate. However, they are also useful in research as summaries of a large number of state policies that cannot be studied simultaneously. Prior research found that business climate indexes focused on productivity and quality of life do not predict economic growth, while indexes emphasizing taxes and costs of doing business indicate that low‐tax, low‐cost states have faster growth of employment, wages, and output. In this paper, we study the relationship between these two categories of business climate indexes and the promotion of equality or inequality. We do not find that the productivity/quality‐of‐life indexes predict more equitable outcomes, although some of the policies underlying them suggest they might. We do find, however, that the same tax‐and‐cost‐related indexes that are associated with higher economic growth are also associated with increases in inequality.     

THE IMPORTANCE OF CONSECUTIVE SPELLS OF POVERTY: A PATH‐DEPENDENT INDEX OF LONGITUDINAL POVERTY

In this paper we propose a new index of individual poverty in the longitudinal perspective, taking into account the way poverty and non‐poverty spells follow one another along individual life courses. The Poverty Persistence Index (PPI) is based on all the pairwise distances between the waves of poverty. The PPI is normalized and it assigns a higher degree of (longitudinal) poverty to people who experience poverty in consecutive, rather than separated, periods, for whom the distances from the poverty line are larger along time and moreover, when the worst years are consecutive and/or recent. We also propose an aggregate index of persistence in poverty (APPI) in order to measure the distribution of the persistence of poverty in a society, and evaluate at once the diffusion of poverty, its depth, duration, and recentness. The indices are tested in comparison with other measures from the literature both at the individual as well as at the societal level.     

ON THE “PRO‐POORNESS” OF GROWTH IN A MULTIDIMENSIONAL CONTEXT

This paper represents a first attempt to bring together the issues of multidimensional poverty and growth “pro‐poorness” assessments. More specifically, we suggest the use of sequential dominance procedures to test the “pro‐poorness” of observed growth spells when poverty is measured on the basis of income and another discrete well‐being attribute. Sequential procedures are also used to obtain graphical tools that are consistent with the spirit of Ravallion and Chen's growth incidence curve and Son's poverty growth curve. Contrary to traditional unidimensional tests, our method makes it possible to take into account the importance of deprivation correlations at the individual level and thus may reverse results observed with the traditional tools used to check the “pro‐poorness” of growth. An illustration of our approach is given using Turkish data for the period 2003–05.     

Recent and Future Developments Related to “Gdp and Beyond”

Progress of societies? Well‐being of citizens? Trans‐generational impact of policies? To answer such fundamental questions and much more, the European Commission published, in August 2009, its Communication on “GDP and Beyond: Measuring Progress in a Changing World.” Through a co‐operative project, co‐chaired by Eurostat and INSEE (France), the ESS acted decisively and established an action plan to be carried out by 2020 in the context of the European Statistical Programme. This plan which also builds on Eurostat's work on Sustainable Development Indicators. For most of these actions, work has either been accomplished or is in good progress. Further challenges lie ahead, including reconciling macro‐ and micro‐data sources on household economic resources and completing the indicators set on Quality‐of‐Life. The work will also contribute to the global efforts on the Sustainable Development Goals/post‐2015 development agenda.     

THE PERSISTENCE OF INCOME POVERTY AND LIFESTYLE DEPRIVATION: EVIDENCE FROM ITALY

This article estimates poverty persistence over an individual's lifetime, using two definitions: income poverty and a multidimensional index of lifestyle deprivation. We stress the ability of the two definitions to provide a generally consistent characterization of poverty persistence risks faced by various population subgroups, but also the additional insights to be gained by analysing the two definitions in parallel in a longitudinal context. The results of multiple‐spell hazard rate models highlight the weaknesses of the Italian labour market, the insufficiencies of the existing social security system, and the deep territorial dualism in generating persistent poverty for certain groups of the population.     

WHY SMALL GROUPS AND LOW INCOME SECTORS OBTAIN SUBSIDIES: THE “ALTRUISTIC” SIDE OF A “SELF-INTERESTED” GOVERNMENT*

We develop a model of political support seeking politicians and support supplying voters. Based on Downs' original formulation, the framework yields endogenous political weights with both liberal and conservative properties. Our model reconciles the apparent contradiction between models of self-interested politicians and of governments motivated by social concerns. We show that the “altruistic” aspect of government behavior is consistent with its “self-interested” behavior. We determine that the Olson-Becker pressure group model is not unique. An increase in deadweight costs reduces the equilibrium subsidy. Smaller groups receive a larger per capita subsidy. These results are consistent with Becker's model.     

PARENTS’ EDUCATIONAL BACKGROUND,SUBJECTS “GOOD‐AT” IN SCHOOL AND INCOME: AN EMPIRICAL STUDY*

We analyze the effects of studying mathematics and of parents’ academic profile on the annual labour income of their children in later life. Data was obtained from graduates of departments of economics at major private universities in Japan. They show that respondents who are good at mathematics (and English) have a higher average income, and that the more educated the parents, the more children tend to excel in mathematics.     

EQUIVALENCE SCALES AND THE WELFARE OF CHILDREN: A COMMENT ON “IS THERE BIAS IN THE ECONOMIC LITERATURE ON EQUIVALENCE SCALES?”

In a recent issue of this journal, M. Luisa Ferriera, Reuben C. Buse, and Jan-Paul Chavas argue that the equivalence scales implicit in the official U.S. poverty line and in public welfare programs overcompensate parents for their children, with resulting negative distributional and incentive effects. We show that their analysis is based on a very particular, and ethically unappealing, assumption about the importance of children's well-being.     

LOOKING AT THE “POPULATION PROBLEM” THROUGH THE PRISM OF HETEROGENEITY: WELFARE AND POLICY ANALYSES*

Upon introducing heterogeneity and dynamics into a model of the demand for children, a problem of optimal population is defined and analyzed. It is shown that from the perspective of social welfare, better‐educated individuals produce too few children while less‐educated individuals produce too many children and all individuals invest too little in the education of their children. The impact of several policy tools geared at addressing the “population problem” is investigated, in particular how child allowances and other tax‐subsidy policies can be harnessed to enhance welfare, and how and why early childhood education programs can mitigate the “population problem.”     

I’LL NEVER FORGET MY FIRST CIGARETTE: A REVEALED PREFERENCE ANALYSIS OF THE “HABITS AS DURABLES” MODEL*

We provide a revealed preference analysis of the “habits as durables” model. This approach avoids the need to impose a functional form on the underlying utility function. We show that our characterization is testable by means of linear programming methods, and we demonstrate its practical usefulness by means of an application to cigarette consumption using a Spanish household consumption data set. We find that the “habits as durables” model has better empirical fit in terms of predictive success compared to the “short memory habits” and life cycle models.     

THE IMPACTS OF “SHOCK THERAPY” UNDER A BANKING CRISIS: EXPERIENCES FROM THREE LARGE BANK FAILURES IN JAPAN*

A bank failure can have various adverse consequences for clients; these adverse impacts differ depending on which bank takes over the failed banks’ operations. In this paper, we show how the new banks’ management strategies are important in mitigating the short‐ and long‐run consequences. We focus on the clients of three large failed Japanese banks and examine their responses in terms of increased bankruptcies and changes in market valuation after the banks’ operations were taken over. The results imply that the choice of “shock therapy” or “soft budget constraints” had dramatically different consequences in resolving the bad loan problems in Japan.