THE IMPORTANCE OF CONSECUTIVE SPELLS OF POVERTY: A PATH‐DEPENDENT INDEX OF LONGITUDINAL POVERTY

In this paper we propose a new index of individual poverty in the longitudinal perspective, taking into account the way poverty and non‐poverty spells follow one another along individual life courses. The Poverty Persistence Index (PPI) is based on all the pairwise distances between the waves of poverty. The PPI is normalized and it assigns a higher degree of (longitudinal) poverty to people who experience poverty in consecutive, rather than separated, periods, for whom the distances from the poverty line are larger along time and moreover, when the worst years are consecutive and/or recent. We also propose an aggregate index of persistence in poverty (APPI) in order to measure the distribution of the persistence of poverty in a society, and evaluate at once the diffusion of poverty, its depth, duration, and recentness. The indices are tested in comparison with other measures from the literature both at the individual as well as at the societal level.     

The impact of work and non‐work migration on household welfare,poverty and inequality

This article estimates the impact of work migration and non‐work migration on per capita income, per capita expenditures, poverty and inequality in Vietnam using data from the two most recent Vietnam Household and Living Standard Surveys. We find that both work migration and non‐work migration have a positive impact on per capita expenditures of migrant‐sending households. Non‐work migration significantly decreases the incidence, depth and severity of national poverty. The effect of work migration on poverty is much smaller. Still, while work migration does not lift people out of poverty, it makes their poverty less severe. In addition, both work migration and non‐work migration decrease inequality, albeit only very slightly.     

A SHAPLEY DECOMPOSITION OF MULTIDIMENSIONAL CHRONIC POVERTY IN ARGENTINA

This paper proposes a Shapley decomposition to analyse the evolution of chronic poverty in a multivariate setting using a chronic poverty measure proposed by Alkire and colleagues. The decomposition makes possible to assess a vast array of information to find the drivers of change in chronic poverty, and could be a valuable tool in the way public policy programmes focus resources. We present an empirical application of the changes in chronic poverty in Argentina during the period 2004–12 using the Permanent Household Survey. We found that households with older adults show great persistence of multidimensional chronic poverty in time while the employment indicators is found to be an important driver of the intensity of chronic poverty.     

More Relatively‐Poor People in a Less Absolutely‐Poor World

Relative deprivation, shame, and social exclusion can matter to the welfare of people everywhere. The paper argues that such social effects on welfare call for a reconsideration of how we assess global poverty. We argue for using a weakly‐relative measure as the upper‐bound complement to the lower‐bound provided by a standard absolute measure. New estimates of poverty are presented. The absolute line is $1.25 a day at 2005 prices, while the relative line rises with the mean, at a gradient of 1:2 above $1.25 a day, consistently with national poverty lines. We find that the incidence of both absolute and weakly‐relative poverty in the developing world has been falling since the 1990s, but more slowly for the relative measure. While the number of absolutely poor has fallen, the number of relatively poor has changed little since the 1990s, and is higher in 2008 than 1981.     

THE PERSISTENCE OF INCOME POVERTY AND LIFESTYLE DEPRIVATION: EVIDENCE FROM ITALY

This article estimates poverty persistence over an individual's lifetime, using two definitions: income poverty and a multidimensional index of lifestyle deprivation. We stress the ability of the two definitions to provide a generally consistent characterization of poverty persistence risks faced by various population subgroups, but also the additional insights to be gained by analysing the two definitions in parallel in a longitudinal context. The results of multiple‐spell hazard rate models highlight the weaknesses of the Italian labour market, the insufficiencies of the existing social security system, and the deep territorial dualism in generating persistent poverty for certain groups of the population.     

ANALYSIS OF POVERTY AND EFFICIENCY: AN EARNINGS FRONTIER APPROACH

The paper introduces the concept of an earnings frontier in explaining monthly consumption expenditure (a proxy for income) in terms of human capital and endowments of a household. Individuals who translate their potential earning into actual earnings enjoy a fully efficient position. In contrast, individuals who earn less than their potential earnings suffer from some kind of earnings inefficiency. The paper estimates an earnings frontier using the Corrected Ordinary Least Square (COLS) method and classifies households in terms of efficiency scores. Splitting the sample into an efficient and an inefficient part based on the estimated frontier and a bench mark efficiency score, the status of poverty in the two parts (groups) is studied. The poverty gap between the groups is then decomposed into a characteristics effect and a coefficients effect using the familiar Oaxaca decomposition methodology. The paper also tries to establish a link between the notion of efficiency and the coefficients effect in the Oaxaca decomposition methodology. The results obtained are interpreted in light of the poor but efficient hypothesis.     

USING PSEUDO‐PANELS TO MEASURE INCOME MOBILITY IN LATIN AMERICA

This paper presents a comparative overview of mobility patterns in 14 Latin American countries between 1992 and 2003. Using three alternative econometric techniques on constructed pseudo‐panels, the paper provides a set of estimators for the traditional notion of income mobility as well as for mobility around extreme and moderate poverty lines. The estimates suggest very high levels of time‐dependent unconditional immobility for the Region. However, the introduction of socioeconomic and personal factors reduces the estimate of income immobility by around 30 percent. There are also large variations in country‐specific income mobility (estimated to explain some additional 10 percent of inter‐temporal income variation). Analyzing the determinants of changes in poverty incidence within cohorts revealed statistically significant roles for age, gender, and education of the household head, the latter subject to distinctive effects across levels of attainment and transition in and out of poverty.     

CLUSTER‐BASED INDUSTRIAL DEVELOPMENT: A VIEW FROM EAST ASIA*

In this paper I attempt to formulate an endogenous model of cluster‐based industrial development, based on case studies in Japan, Taiwan, and China, where the initiation phase is followed by the quantity expansion phase through imitation and subsequently by the quality improvement phase through innovation. I argue that such a process of industrial development is supported by the development of market transactions among assemblers, parts‐suppliers, and merchants, and the stimulation of innovation made possible by the benefits of industrial clusters arising from the geographical concentration of a large number of enterprises and a variety of human resources in a small geographical area.     

Attrition and Follow‐Up Rules in Panel Surveys: Insights from a Tracking Experience in Madagascar

Most longitudinal surveys recontact households only if they are still living in the same dwelling, producing very high attrition rates, especially in developing countries where rural–urban migration is prevalent. In this paper, we discuss the implications of the various follow‐up rules used in longitudinal surveys in the light of an original tracking survey from Madagascar. This survey attempted in 2005 to search and interview all individuals who were living in the village of Bepako in 1995, the baseline year of a yearly survey, the Rural Observatories. The tracking survey yielded an individual recontact rate of 78.8 percent, more than halving attrition compared to a standard dwelling‐based follow‐up rule. The tracking reveals a very high rate of out‐migration (38.8 percent) and household break‐ups, as three‐quarters of recontacted households had divided between 1995 and 2005. The average income growth of the sample over the period increases by 28 percentage points when follow‐up is extended to those who moved out of their household or village, suggesting that dwelling‐based panels give a partial view of the welfare dynamics of the baseline sample. A higher baseline income per capita is associated with a higher probability of staying in Bepako and of being found in the tracking if one moved out. The hardest people to find are the poorest and most isolated. Special attention should be paid to collecting data that enable the identification and follow‐up of individuals, without which attrition is likely to remain a source of bias even after a tracking procedure is carried out.     

THE EFFECT OF GOVERNMENT SPENDING ON ECONOMIC GROWTH: TESTING THE NON‐LINEAR HYPOTHESIS

Theoretical models suggest a non‐linear relationship between government size and long‐run economic growth. However, testing this hypothesis empirically in cross‐country studies is complicated by the endogeneity of government spending and the accurate identification of inflexion points. This paper examines the non‐linear hypothesis by incorporating threshold analysis in a cross‐country growth regression. The methodology utilizes a sample‐splitting framework and follows an objective strategy for identifying and testing changes in the slope. The results provide evidence in support of the non‐linear hypothesis for a broad panel of countries.     

Poverty,undernutrition and vulnerability in rural India: role of rural public works and food for work programmes

This paper analyses the effects of access to Rural Public Works (RPW) or Food for Work programme (FFW) on consumption poverty, vulnerability and undernutrition in India using the large household data sets constructed by the National Sample Survey for 1993 and 2004. The treatment-effects model is used to take account of sample selection bias in evaluating the effects of RPW in 1993 or FFW in 2004 on poverty. We have found significant and negative effects of participation in RPW and the Food for Work Programme on poverty, undernutrition (e.g. protein) and vulnerability in 1993 and 2004.     

MEASURING POVERTY USING BOTH INCOME AND WEALTH: A CROSS‐COUNTRY COMPARISON BETWEEN THE U.S. AND SPAIN

We study the correspondence between a household's income and its vulnerability to income shocks in two developed countries: the U.S. and Spain. Vulnerability is measured by the availability of wealth to smooth consumption in a multidimensional approach to poverty, which allows us to identify three groups of households: the twice‐poor group, which includes income‐poor households who lack an adequate stock of wealth; the group of protected‐poor households, which are all those income‐poor families with a buffer stock of wealth they can rely on; and the vulnerable‐non‐poor group, including households above the income‐poverty line that do not hold any stock of wealth. Interestingly, the risk of belonging to these groups changes over the life‐cycle in both countries while the size of the groups differs significantly between Spain and the U.S., although this result is quite sensitive to whether the housing wealth component is included in the wealth measure or not.     

Understanding Rising Income Inequality in Germany, 1999/2000–2005/2006

We examine the factors behind rising income inequality in Europe's most populous economy. From 1999/2000 to 2005/2006, Germany experienced an unprecedented rise in net equivalized income inequality and poverty. At the same time, unemployment rose to record levels, part‐time and marginal part‐time work grew, and there was evidence for a widening distribution of labor incomes. Other factors that possibly contributed to the rise in income inequality were changes in the tax and transfer system, changes in the household structure (in particular the rising share of single parent households), and changes in other socio‐economic characteristics (e.g., age or education). We address the question of which factors were the main drivers of the observed inequality increase. Our results suggest that the largest part of the increase was due to increasing inequality in labor incomes, but that changes in employment outcomes and changes in the tax system also contributed considerable shares. By contrast, changes in household structures and household characteristics, as well as changes in the transfer system only seem to have played a minor role.     

AIDS and economic growth: A human capital approach

Using a model that combines growth and health capital equations this study analyses the impact of HIV/AIDS on economic growth. The econometric results indicate that the epidemic's effects have been substantial; in Africa the marginal impact on income per capita of a 1% increase in HIV prevalence rate is minus 0.59%. Even in countries with lower HIV prevalence rates the marginal impacts are non-trivial. Hence while the human and social costs of the HIV/AIDS epidemic are major causes for concern, these results indicate that the macroeconomic affects of the HIV/AIDS epidemic are important.     

A NEW MULTIPLICATIVE DECOMPOSITION FOR THE FOSTER–GREER–THORBECKE POVERTY INDICES

This paper shows that Foster–Greer–Thorbecke poverty indices can be written as the product of components summarizing the incidence, intensity and inequality dimensions of poverty and provides an empirical illustration of the decomposition using Spanish household budget surveys data.     

A Proposal to Compare Consistently the Inequality Among the Poor

A poverty index should be sensitive to the number of poor people, the extent of the shortfall of the poor, and the inequality among the poor. A difficulty arises when inequality among the poor needs to be assessed. The inequality may be analyzed in terms of either incomes or gaps. Depending on what side we focus on, the inequality level comparisons may be contradictory. This paper proposes a reinterpretation of the inequality component involved in the decompositions of well‐known poverty indices. The alternative indices we introduce measure equally the income and gap inequality among the poor. The comparisons in inequality as measured by these indices are then independent of the viewpoint. An empirical application illustrates the proposal.     

我国收入差距与经济增长的面板协整与因果关系研究

笔者运用最近发展起来的面板协整技术,分析了我国收入差距与经济增长的关系。研究结果表明,全国以及东中西部的收入差距与经济增长之间存在长期的稳定关系;尽管对于全国和东部地区,收入差距和经济增长的因果关系并不明显,但对于中部和西部,收入差距和经济增长之间存在长期和短期的因果关系。     

TECHNICAL EFFICIENCY IN THE INDIAN TEXTILES INDUSTRY: A NON‐PARAMETRIC ANALYSIS OF FIRM‐LEVEL DATA

The Indian textiles industry is now at the crossroads with the phasing out of the quota regime that prevailed under the Multi‐Fiber Agreement until the end of 2004. In the face of a full integration of the textiles sector in the WTO, maintaining and enhancing productive efficiency is a precondition for competitiveness of the Indian firms in the new liberalized world market. In this paper, we use data obtained from the Annual Survey of Industries for a number of years to measure the levels of technical efficiency in the Indian textiles industry at the firm level. We use both a grand frontier applicable to all firms and a group frontier specific to firms from any individual state, ownership or organization type in order to evaluate their efficiencies. This permits us to separately identify how locational, proprietary and organizational characteristics of a firm affect its performance.     

Inequality and growth: What comes from the different inequality measures?

The objective of the paper is to verify if income inequality impedes the growth rates in OECD countries in the period of 1990–2014 and to reveal whether the choice of the income inequality measure determines the sign and the strength of the estimated relationship. We use system GMM to estimate parameters of a dynamic panel growth model. The research indicates that income inequality negatively affects economic growth. We also find evidence that various measures of inequality bring the different scale of consequences for economic growth, with measures that give more weight to the middle part of the distribution being the weakest predictor of GDP growth. Simultaneously, we present the test of weak instruments, which helps to explain these differences.     

ON THE “PRO‐POORNESS” OF GROWTH IN A MULTIDIMENSIONAL CONTEXT

This paper represents a first attempt to bring together the issues of multidimensional poverty and growth “pro‐poorness” assessments. More specifically, we suggest the use of sequential dominance procedures to test the “pro‐poorness” of observed growth spells when poverty is measured on the basis of income and another discrete well‐being attribute. Sequential procedures are also used to obtain graphical tools that are consistent with the spirit of Ravallion and Chen's growth incidence curve and Son's poverty growth curve. Contrary to traditional unidimensional tests, our method makes it possible to take into account the importance of deprivation correlations at the individual level and thus may reverse results observed with the traditional tools used to check the “pro‐poorness” of growth. An illustration of our approach is given using Turkish data for the period 2003–05.