多维贫困的空间集聚与金融减贫的空间溢出—来自中国的经验证据

文章利用中国30个省份1999?2014年的省际面板数据,结合空间计量模型探讨了农村贫困的空间集聚效应和金融减贫的空间溢出效应.研究发现,不管是采用地理距离权重、经济距离权重还是嵌套权重,农民收入贫困、教育贫困和医疗贫困均呈现出显著的空间正向关联,意味着贫困分布呈现典型的"穷-穷"集聚特征,这一分布特征实际上从贫困角度验证了中国区域发展的不平衡.对收入贫困和教育贫困,农村金融发展不仅具有直接的减贫作用,还通过空间溢出效应对邻近省份发挥间接减贫作用,且这种溢出效应带来的减贫效果比直接效应更为显著.对医疗贫困等公共服务上的贫困,其改善主要依赖于政府财政支出和当地经济水平的发展.文章的研究结论有助于政府从多维视角重新审视农民面临的贫困问题,为"十三五"实施全面脱贫拓宽了视野.     

Poverty,inequality and growth in Albania

This article studies the distribution of well‐being and, specifically, the degree of poverty and deprivation in Albania, in the years 2002 and 2005, using Living Standard Measurement Surveys (LSMS). The distribution analysis is performed by applying both one‐dimensional and multidimensional approaches, in particular to better examine the link between economic growth, inequality and poverty in Albania. Furthermore, by estimating a non‐monetary indicator, as proposed by Bossert et al. ( 2007 ), and a nonlinear principal component model together with a probit model, the paper focuses on the multidimensional measures of poverty to address the relationship between poverty and socio‐economic factors. Our evidence shows that absolute poverty decreased from 2002 to 2005 while national relative poverty increased; economic growth reduced poverty in Albania over the observed period; and living in rural and mountain areas, being female, poorly educated and with a large family increased the probability of suffering from deprivation.     

ON THE “PRO‐POORNESS” OF GROWTH IN A MULTIDIMENSIONAL CONTEXT

This paper represents a first attempt to bring together the issues of multidimensional poverty and growth “pro‐poorness” assessments. More specifically, we suggest the use of sequential dominance procedures to test the “pro‐poorness” of observed growth spells when poverty is measured on the basis of income and another discrete well‐being attribute. Sequential procedures are also used to obtain graphical tools that are consistent with the spirit of Ravallion and Chen's growth incidence curve and Son's poverty growth curve. Contrary to traditional unidimensional tests, our method makes it possible to take into account the importance of deprivation correlations at the individual level and thus may reverse results observed with the traditional tools used to check the “pro‐poorness” of growth. An illustration of our approach is given using Turkish data for the period 2003–05.     

MEASURING SUB‐NATIONAL INCOME POVERTY BY USING A SMALL AREA MULTIVARIATE APPROACH

The present paper proposes a statistical strategy for the analysis of regional disparities in income poverty. For the EU countries, information on individual income has been collected until now by the European Community Household Panel survey, which only yields reliable estimates for very large regions within countries. In order to obtain reliable estimates for some of the poverty indicators suggested by the Laeken Council at the sub‐national level, we suggest the adoption of a multivariate small area estimation approach which enables us to reduce estimate variability. We concentrate on Italy, the country with the lowest degree of regional cohesion within the EU. Results show that disparity cannot be reduced to the so‐called “North–South divide,” with the “poor” South separated from the “affluent” North, as both these macro‐regions display large internal differences in terms of both poverty level and income inequality. The strategy we propose could also be adopted in order to measure poverty in other European regions, using information produced by the new EU Survey on Income and Living Conditions, which is replacing the European Community Household Panel.     

A Multidimensional Poverty Index for Latin America

This paper proposes a new Multidimensional Poverty Index for Latin America. The index combines monetary and non‐monetary indicators, updates deprivation cut‐offs for certain traditional unsatisfied basic needs indicators and includes some new indicators, aiming to maximize regional comparability within the data constraints. The index is estimated for 17 countries of the region at two points in time—one around 2005 and the other around 2012. Overall, we estimate about 28 percent of people are multidimensionally poor in 2012 in the region. We find statistically significant reductions of poverty in most countries, both in terms of incidence and intensity over the period under analysis. However, important disparities between rural and urban areas remain. Statistical scrutiny of the index suggests that it captures the state of poverty relatively well while maintaining a certain parsimony and being highly robust to changes in weights, indicators, and poverty cut‐off.     

Mapping the Australian Poverty Profile: A Multidimensional Deprivation Approach

The limitations of income‐based poverty lines are widely acknowledged, but Australia lags behind many other countries in implementing new measures of social disadvantage based on the deprivation approach. A new suite of questions included in wave 14 of the Household, Income and Labour Dynamics in Australia (HILDA) survey allows the deprivation approach to be applied. This article describes the advantages of the deprivation approach and shows that while the income and deprivation approaches can produce similar overall results, the circumstances of some sub‐groups vary greatly according to which measure is used. A measure based on deprivation alone and/or a combined measure would be an important complement to conventional income‐based poverty rates.     

RELATIVE OR ABSOLUTE POVERTY LINES: A NEW APPROACH

When measuring poverty over time analysts must choose the value of the income elasticity of the poverty line, which essentially determines whether an absolute or relative poverty line is being used. The choice of this parameter is ultimately a value judgement, but this paper suggests an approach which has some empirical basis. Borrowing from the life-style and deprivation approach to poverty, various dimensions of poverty and deprivation are identified and the income elasticity of these items is used as the income elasticity of the poverty line. Data from the 1987 and 1994 Irish Household Budget Surveys suggest an upper bound of 0.7 for this parameter. Poverty measures using a number of values of the income elasticity of the poverty line are presented and test statistics are presented to determine whether observed differences in poverty measures are statistically significant.     

中国多维贫困的动态测算、结构分解与精准扶贫

贫困的多维福利剥夺程度高低和持续时间长短是近年来理论界关注的焦点,也是政府制定精准扶贫政策的重要理论依据.文章综合Alkire和Foster(2011)提出的多维贫困测算方法和Foster(2009)提出的长期贫困测算方法,构建了长期多维贫困指数和暂时多维贫困指数,实证分析了中国的贫困状况,并进行了城乡分解、指标分解和区域分解.结果发现:第一,样本家庭在多维视角下的长期贫困比例要高于暂时贫困,这与单一地从收入角度来分析长期贫困和暂时贫困的结论恰好相反;第二,对于所有类型的贫困而言,教育年限、医疗保险和健康的贡献度都排在前三位,但健康对于长期贫困人口的贡献度要明显高于暂时贫困;第三,总体看来,农村的多维贫困程度不仅高于城市,而且很多指标的贫困持续时间也要高于城市;第四,从四大区域看,经济发展水平较低的中西部地区,长期多维贫困程度要高于东部和东北部地区.     

THE SIZE AND DISTRIBUTION OF THE POVERTY GAP IN CANADA: A MICRO ANALYSIS OF VARIATIONS AMONG DEMOGRAPHIC GROUPS

Poverty is a much used term by politicians, economists, sociologists, the media and interest groups. Although there is some common consensus that the word poverty means some type of deprivation, there is a lack of comprehensive measures to quantify this term. Although deprivation can relate to a number of areas such as health and education, the focus in policy development has been aimed at economic deprivation or more specifically, income adequacy. Even in this perspective, the availability of comprehensive measures are limited. The United States is the only major industrial nation that has an official poverty line. Several unofficial poverty lines have been developed in Canada, but the poverty measures have not gone beyond head counts of people who fall below these lines. In an environment where the goal is to further progressive social development constrained by inadequate public resources, the emphasis has been on first directing scarce resources to those "most in need". To get a better perception of economic need, this paper provides a micro analysis of the size and distribution of the poverty gap so that meaningful comparisons can be made between demographic groups. The results of this analysis yield some interesting findings. For example, there are virtually no poor elderly couples and although there are a large number of poor single elderly, their income shortfalls are relatively small and are highly concentrated near the poverty line; the poverty rate among families with children is quite low but their incomes on average fall well below the poverty line and are widely dispersed; and single parents fare badly on all measures.     

Persistent and Consistent Poverty in the 1994 and 1995 Waves of the European Community Household Panel Survey

This paper focuses on the mismatch between income and deprivation measures of poverty. Using the first two waves of the European Community Household Panel Survey, a measure of relative deprivation is constructed and the overlap between the relative income poor and relatively deprived is examined. There is very limited overlap with the lowest relative income threshold. The overlap increases as the income threshold is raised, but it remains true that less than half those below the 60 percent relative income line are among the most deprived. Relative deprivation is shown to be related to the persistence of income poverty, but also to a range of other resource and need factors. Income and deprivation measures each contain information that can profitably be employed to enhance our understanding of poverty and a range of other social phenomena. This is illustrated by the manner in which both income poverty and relative deprivation are associated with self-reported difficulty making ends meet.     

A Consistent Poverty Approach to Assessing the Sensitivity of Income Poverty Measures and Trends

This paper examines the sensitivity of estimates of income poverty rates and trends to variations in the poverty line and to whether or not certain households are included or excluded from the sample used to estimate poverty. The approach draws on the concept of consistent poverty, which has been used to identify those with incomes below the poverty line who also experience deprivation. Our approach involves excluding households with incomes below the poverty line if they report zero or negative income or are self‐employed, have expenditure well in excess of their income, have substantial wealth holdings, or if they do not report having experienced financial stress over the past year. The combined impact of all four exclusions is to reduce the half‐median income poverty rate from 9.9 per cent to 5.4 per cent, but also suggests that poverty increased by more over the decade to 2003–04 than the original estimates indicate.     

中国城镇家庭能源贫困评估*——基于微观调查数据的研究

我国扶贫工作重点已进入新阶段,从消除绝对贫困向缓解发展不平衡、不充分的相对贫困转变,从解决收入贫困向解决多维贫困转变,从重点解决农村贫困问题向统筹城乡扶贫转变。能源是人民生活质量的重要指标,能有效反映福利水平。了解我国城镇家庭能源消费的基本特征、准确测度能源贫困水平与分布,有助于为今后扶贫工作提供资料基础和科学管理依据。本文构建消费者能源消费决策分析框架,并运用第一次中国家庭能源消费调查数据,考察居民收入与能源消费之间的关系,并对中国城镇家庭能源贫困状况进行测度。研究发现,居民收入与能源消费之间存在S型非线性关系,能源价格、家庭特征、地域特征等因素在能源消费决策中都发挥重要影响。我国城镇家庭相对能源贫困较为严重,主要表现为能源可支付性问题。能源贫困率在20%左右,其中电力贫困程度更为严重,超过25%。家庭收入增长、户主受教育程度提高、城市电力基础设施的普及、城市环境规制水平的提升会显著降低城镇家庭陷入能源贫困的可能性,而电力价格上涨会显著增加城镇家庭陷入能源贫困的概率。     

Deprivation of Women and Men Living in a Couple: Sharing or Unequal Division?

In standard poverty analyses, all household members are assumed to share equal living conditions. Though a few national studies exist, this paper is the first to present empirical evidence on this issue for the EU, using the 2015 wave of the EU Statistics on Income and Living Conditions. We map the extent of intra-couple inequality in deprivation, and analyze its determinants. We find that for most items, the gender difference in lack between partners, though generally small, is significant and at the disadvantage of women. When aggregating the individual items into a deprivation scale, couples where the number of enforced lacks is higher for the woman (9.2 percent) are (significantly) more numerous than couples where the man is disadvantaged (6.5 percent), at the EU level. Econometric analysis shows that the work status of the partners and their relative contribution to the joint income are important determinants of the intra-couple gender deprivation gap.     

THE PERSISTENCE OF INCOME POVERTY AND LIFESTYLE DEPRIVATION: EVIDENCE FROM ITALY

This article estimates poverty persistence over an individual's lifetime, using two definitions: income poverty and a multidimensional index of lifestyle deprivation. We stress the ability of the two definitions to provide a generally consistent characterization of poverty persistence risks faced by various population subgroups, but also the additional insights to be gained by analysing the two definitions in parallel in a longitudinal context. The results of multiple‐spell hazard rate models highlight the weaknesses of the Italian labour market, the insufficiencies of the existing social security system, and the deep territorial dualism in generating persistent poverty for certain groups of the population.     

Profiling the Fuzzy Latent Structure of Multidimensional Poverty: Toward Valuable Insights for Poverty Policymakers

Abstract

Several multidimensional poverty indices have been proposed, and have been extensively studied in the literature. On the other hand, the need for aggregation of poverty indicators into one multidimensional index has been questioned. It has been argued even so that this aggregation can be misleading for political targeting strategies. Subsequently, some researchers have advocated that the use of the latent class analysis would address these issues. However, this setting does not allow to take into account the fuzzy nature of the latent poverty concept. The contribution here is to use the Grade-of-Membership (GoM) model to profile the fuzzy latent structure of multidimensional poverty, for a more realistic handling of this phenomenon. The application of the GoM methodology to multivariate poverty data for the Tunisian case reveals four most prevalent multidimensional poverty profiles. The results emphasize the role played by contextual effects. Indeed, the rural cluster is suffering more intense deprivation and groups in the central and coastal regions have a more comfortable status in comparison with the group of households residing in inland regions. A thorough analysis of these patterns is put forward in this research, giving valuable insights to policy makers.     

“收入导向型”多维贫困的识别与流动性研究*——基于CFPS调查数据农村子样本的考察

本文结合收入及健康、教育、生活状况、卫生状况和食物支出五个非收入指标,构建了“收入导向型”多维贫困指数,采用中国家庭追踪调查（CFPS）数据的农村子样本,考察多维贫困的识别、追踪和流动性问题。在比较了6维贫困指标和多维贫困指标对贫困识别的效果后研究发现,仅依据收入、教育和生活状况三个维度即可有效识别和追踪贫困家庭,并且在这三个维度下均处于贫困状态的农村家庭跳出贫困陷阱的概率显著低于一般收入贫困家庭。研究表明,扶贫政策应当在减少收入贫困基础上更多关注多重剥夺对贫困家庭整体福利的影响,并致力于提高贫困家庭的持续脱贫能力以增强其跳出贫困陷阱的可能性。     

Poverty is a Public Bad: Panel Evidence From Subjective Well‐Being Data

Previous research has found that subjective well‐being (SWB) is lower for individuals classified as being in poverty. We extend the poverty‐SWB literature by focusing on aggregate poverty. Using panel data for 39,239 individuals living in Germany from 2005–2013, we show that people's SWB is negatively correlated with the regional (state‐level) poverty ratio while controlling for individual poverty status and poverty intensity. This suggests that poverty is a public bad. The negative relationship between aggregate poverty and SWB is more salient in the upper segments of the income distribution and is robust to controlling for the rate of unemployment and per capita GDP. The character of poverty as a public bad suggests that poverty alleviation is a matter not only of distributive justice, but of allocative efficiency.     

“When Life Gives You Lemons”: Using Cross-Sectional Surveys to Identify Chronic Poverty in the Absence of Panel Data

At the core of poverty eradication is the need to eliminate that poverty that is persistent over time (chronic poverty). Unfortunately, traditional approaches to identifying chronic poverty require longitudinal data that is rarely available. In its absence, this paper proposes an alternative approach that only requires 1 year of cross-sectional data on monetary and non-monetary poverty. It puts forth two conjectures and contends that the combined profile of a household as both income poor and multidimensionally poor can be used as a proxy of that household being chronically income poor. To explore the viability of this approach, we use a probit model and longitudinal data for three Latin American countries to estimate households’ probabilities of remaining in income poverty based on their past income and multidimensional poverty statuses. We find empirical support for the approach that is significant, consistent across countries, and robust to various controls and periods of analysis.