论中国土地增值税的改革

关于中国土地增值税的改革思路,目前主要的观点有二:其一是"取消论";其二是"改革论"。本文认为:应该将中国的土地增值税改造成专门应对土地投机的"相机抉择"工具。为证明上述看法,本文集中考察了如下四个问题:一是述评土地增值税的税制要素;二是论证土地增值税打击土地投机的效应;三是比较土地增值税与其他土地政策的功能;四是论述中国土地增值税的改革思路。     

论中国土地增值税的改革

关于中国土地增值税的改革思路,目前主要的观点有二:其一是取消论;其二是改革论.该文认为:应该将中国的土地增值税改造成专门应对土地投机的相机抉择工具.为证明上述看法,该文集中考察了如下四个问题:一是述评土地增值税的税制要素;二是论证土地增值税打击土地投机的效应;三是比较土地增值税与其他土地政策的功能;四是论述中国土地增值税的改革思路.     

我国休闲农业发展现状与对策

休闲农业是以农业为基础,以休闲为目的,以服务为手段,以城市游客为目标,农业和旅游业相结合,第一产业和第三产业相结合的新型产业.休闲农业在我国先后经历了早期兴起阶段、初期发展阶段、规范经营阶段.文章在对休闲农业概念界定的基础上,分析了休闲农业功能、意义及其发展背景与市场需求,总结了我国发展现状与特点、发展模式与经营类型及典型省市休闲农业发展,指出了存在问题与发展对策,并对休闲农业发展前景进行了展望.     

洞庭湖观鸟旅游发展现状及对策

观鸟旅游是生态旅游重要的表现形式。其经济、社会、环境效益得到了国际国内学术界的关注,洞庭湖丰富的鸟类资源是开展观鸟旅游的良好基础。文章详细分析了洞庭湖观鸟旅游资源及发展现状和面临的主要问题,并提出了相应的发展策略。     

中国经济波动可预测性的福利分析

使用一阶自回归随机过程来描述中国的消费波动,并重新估算经济波动福利成本和经济增长福利成本,研究结果表明,经济波动的福利成本和消费波动的可预测性是正相关的,并且在一阶自回归假设条件下计算出的福利成本略低于独立同分布情形。     

WELFARE ANALYSIS OF THE VEHICLE QUOTA SYSTEM IN CHINA

This article presents a welfare analysis of the vehicle quota system of Shanghai, China. The empirical findings suggest that the quota system leads to both welfare loss as a result of reduction in vehicle transactions and welfare gain because of less externality of auto consumption. The net effect depends on the shadow price of the marginal externality, the assumption of vehicle lifetime, and market conditions such as consumers' intrinsic preference for vehicles. Compared to a progressive tax system, the quota system is less effective in vehicle control but more efficient in improving social welfare.     

RATE‐CUTTING TAX REFORMS AND CORPORATE TAX COMPETITION IN EUROPE

While there is a large and growing number of studies on the determinants of corporate tax rates, the literature has so far ignored the fact that the behavior of governments in setting tax rates is often best described as a discrete choice decision problem. We set up an empirical model that relates a government's decision whether to cut its corporate tax rate to the country's own inherited tax and taxes in neighboring countries. Using comprehensive data on corporate tax reforms in Europe since 1980, we find evidence suggesting that the position in terms of the tax burden imposed on corporate income relative to geographical neighbors strongly affects the probability of rate‐cutting tax reforms. Countries are particularly likely to cut their statutory tax rate if the inherited tax is high and if they are exposed to low‐tax neighbors.     

ASSESSING THE WELFARE IMPACT OF TAX REFORM: A CASE STUDY OF THE 2001 U.S. TAX CUT

This paper implements a relatively simple methodological approach to estimate the impact on family welfare of a specific tax reform. The measured impact can differ greatly from simple marginal tax rate comparisons, and conclusions about the distribution of the welfare impact can vary depending on the basis of comparison. For example, absolute welfare gains from the 2001 U.S. tax reform were concentrated among the highest and lowest income families, whereas welfare gains measured as a share of pre‐tax income are found to be nearly monotonically declining in income.     

THE WELFARE EFFECTS OF PAY-AS-YOU-GO RETIREMENT PROGRAMS: THE ROLE OF TAX AND BENEFIT TIMING

It is well known that pay-as-you-go retirement programs reduce steady-state welfare and the capital stock in dynamically efficient overlapping generation (OLG) economies. The common two-period OLG model obscures, however, the relationship between the magnitude of these effects and the ages at which taxes are paid and benefits received. Program changes that shift taxes to older workers or benefits to younger retirees have effects similar to reductions in program size, yielding steady-state welfare gains and increases in capital accumulation while imposing transition costs on current generations. This analysis has policy implications for both tax and benefit timing . ( JEL H55, E62)     

SOCIALLY IMPROVING TAX REFORMS*

This article proposes graphical methods to determine whether commodity tax changes are “socially improving,” in the sense of improving social welfare or decreasing poverty for large classes of social welfare and poverty indices. It also shows how estimators of critical poverty lines and economic efficiency ratios can be used to characterize socially improving tax reforms. The methodology is illustrated using Mexican data.     

EX-ANTE SIMULATIONS OF DIRECT AND INDIRECT EFFECTS OF WELFARE REFORMS

This paper estimates an ex-ante structural model that incorporates behavioral labor responses to analyze the distributive impacts of a long proposed reform in Ecuador: the shift from regressive consumer gas subsidies to the progressive Human Development Bonus (HDB). Even the most radical reform options may not have the expected sizeable distributive gains. This is the case even after the targeting instrument, SelBen, substantially corrects the current targeting deficiencies of the HDB. Poverty reduction is maximized (reduing poverty by about five percentage points) when the targeting instrument redirects resources to households close to the pre-reform poverty line. Most of this estimated impact accrues from direct effects with a minimal contribution from indirect effects. Labor-driven indirect effects are multiple and complex, tending to cancel out one another.     

东北区域网络利用水平现状、原因及其对策

基于SOHU．COM网站提供的中国区域网站建设的基础数据,文章描述了东北网站建设现状,分析了网络利用水平较低的主要原因——信息基础设施落后、财政紧张和软环境落后,在此基础上,提出了一些建议和对策。     

A SURVEY ON THE OUTPUT EFFECTS OF TAX REFORMS FROM A POLICY PERSPECTIVE

This study reviews the existing evidence on the effects of tax reforms on output levels and growth over the short and long run from different strands of the literature. It develops and applies criteria to evaluate the usefulness of ex‐post estimates to predict the effects of tax reforms ex ante. Based on these criteria, we present detailed tables summarizing and comparing ex‐post estimates of the effects of tax reforms. Overall, our review suggests that at least the direction of the short‐run and long‐run growth effects can be predicted with a reasonable degree of certainty, but there is disagreement with respect to the magnitude. Our review also suggests that depending on the tax change, trade‐offs between short‐run stabilization and long‐run growth may arise and that more research on this question is needed. (JEL E62, H20, O20)     

CONFIDENCE INTERVALS FOR POLICY REFORMS IN BEHAVIOURAL TAX MICROSIMULATION MODELLING

This paper addresses the need for a measure of the uncertainty that is associated with the results calculated using tax policy behavioural microsimulation models. Deriving the analytical measure would be extremely complicated. Therefore, a simulated approach is proposed, which approximates the sampling distribution of aggregate measures based on the sampling distribution of the estimated labour supply parameters. This approach, which is very computer intensive, is compared with a more time‐efficient approach where the functional form of the sampling distribution is assumed to be normal. The results show that in many instances the results from the two approaches are quite similar. The exception is when aggregate measures for minor types of payments, involving relatively small groups of the population, are examined.     

扩大农业对外开放:现状、趋势及建议

本文首先全面系统地总结了"十五"时期以来我国农业对外开放的基本情况,在阐述农业对外开放取得主要成效及存在问题的基础上,深入剖析"十二五"时期扩大农业对外开放面临的新情况和新问题,最后结合我国实际情况,提出了扩大农业对外开放的总体思路、原则及政策建议。     

INCOME REDISTRIBUTION THROUGH THE TAX SYSTEM: A SIMULATION ANALYSIS OF TAX REFORM

In this paper, we consider reforming the tax system to a comprehensive income tax model in order to amend the differential treatment of income sources. Our simulation analysis shows that the tax reform improves the effectiveness of the tax system on the redistribution of all sources of income including earned income, financial wealth income, and imputed rent. The analysis of incidence of the tax reform suggests that the tax burden for young renters decreases the most and that for young loan-free land owners increases the most through this tax reform.     

PUBLIC INVESTMENT,TAX EVASION,AND THE WELFARE EFFECTS OF A TARIFF REFORM

Contrary to the case considered in literature, the experience of developing countries indicates that the tariff reforms have not been revenue neutral due to the heavy dependence of developing countries on trade taxes and pervasive tax evasion. In contrast to the plausibility of a welfare loss shown by the current literature, when the adverse effect of the loss of tariff revenue on public investment is factored in, the welfare outcome of the tariff reforms of past few decades turns out to be much more pessimistic. The constraints imposed by tariff dependence and tax evasion imply that future tariff reforms in these countries should be undertaken after strengthening their domestic tax system and augmenting the ability of their governments to fight tax evasion. For countries of sub‐Saharan Africa, where such reforms are likely to be concentrated, this would need planning and capacity building over a longer time horizon. (JEL D61, D62, F13, H26)     

增值税全面“扩围”的税率设定探讨

增值税税率的设定是我国实现增值税全面“扩围”必须解决的关键问题,它直接关系到结构性减税的政策目标能否真正实现。本文根据结构性减税的政策目标,利用2007年投入产出表数据进行了模拟测算,得出增值税全面“扩围”的标准税率取值应当在9%~13%之间。在此基础上,本文考虑了全面“扩围”带来的税收减收因素和税制的国际竞争因素,提出标准税率应确定为13%或略低于此的水平。同时,税率档次应在现有税制基础上进行简化。