Composition of International Assets and the Long‐run Current Account

We document the role of capital gains and losses for the current account that a country can sustain along a balanced growth path. While it is well know that growth allows a country to run a current account deficit and still keep its external debt stable as a share of GDP, the sensitivity of the current account to the composition of external assets and liabilities has received little attention. We show that this composition matters because several assets, such as equity or FDI, earn substantial capital gains that are not reflected in the current account. A country that is a net creditor in such assets can then sustain a larger current account deficit. Using a broad sample, we show that this aspect substantially tilts estimates of the long‐run current account towards a deficit among industrialized economies, with the opposite situation for emerging markets. We also show that industrialized economies are likely to benefit from predictable capital gains in the future.     

An analysis of accounting measures on the performance of U.S. international corporations

Accounting measures (earnings and cash flow) have been shown to affect market performance (stock price) in U.S. firms operating domestically. In general, earnings have statistically significant explanatory power of stock price movement, albeit superior to cash flow. However, U.S.-based international corporations consolidate earnings from foreign operations. Consolidation can report significant gains (losses) from foreign transactions, as well as from the translation of foreign assets and liabilities, as currency exchange rates flucturate. Researchers are divided over the impact, if any, that such gains (losses) have on stock price. Indeed, gain (loss) is not realized until foreign currency is converted into the parent firm's functional currency. Foreign operations may accumulate assets and foreign currency even while U.S. exchange rates decline. Stock analysts may consider all currencyadjusted data to be unreliable and prefer simple data such as sales. Currency-adjusted accounting measures may or may not influence market performance.     

Capital gains taxation in an economy with an ‘Austrian sector’

This paper examines the effects of a proportional capital gains in an economy with an Austrian sector (with wine and trees) and an ordinary sector. We analyze the effect of capital gains taxation (on both an accrual and a realization basis) on the efficiency with which resources are used within the Austrian sector. Since time is the only input which can be varied in the Austrian sector, this amounts to looking at the effect of capital gains taxation on the harvesting time or selling time of assets. Accrual taxation decreases the selling time of Austrian assets. Realization taxation decreases the selling time of some Austrian assets and leaves it unchanged for others. Inflation further reduces the selling time of assets taxed on an accrual basis; often, but not always, inflation increases the selling time of Austrian assets taxed on a realization basis. We also examine the effect of the special tax treatment of capital gains at death and find that the current U.S. tax system, under which capital gains taxes are waived at death, encourages investors to hold assets longer.In contrast to these results — which suggest that the capital gains tax can reduce the holding period of an asset — we show that there is a sense in which such taxes (at least when levied on a realization basis) discourage transactions and increase holding periods. It is never profitable to change the ownership of an Austrian asset between the time of the original constraint and the ultimate harvesting of the asset for final use.Capital gains taxation diverts resources from the Austrian sector to the ordinary sector. The effects on the efficiency of the allocation of investment between sectors are complicated and not easy to summarize.     

Reflection on Microeconomic Policy Frameworks in Australia, and a Suggestion about Fairness

For economists, the main test of a microeconomic policy change is its effect on efficiency: gains minus losses, equally weighted. However, it is standard economics that individuals value losses more than gains. Moreover, imposing large, uncompensated and uninsurable policy-induced losses would be widely regarded as unfair, when they are merely collateral damage from policy action. The article argues the case for adjusting the calculation of efficiency to take account of this 'unfairness' and discusses how it could be done. The context is the relatively recent acceptance in Australia of competition, if planned and regulated, as being generally socially beneficial.     

INTEREST AND INFLATION ACCOUNTING

This paper analyses the treatments proposed by Chapter XIX (Annex B) of the 1993 SNA and the manual Inflation Accounting published by the OECD (Peter Hill) as alternatives to the traditional recording of nominal interest. Real interest and interest prime (annex B) are relevant for different purposes. Their amounts are not the same to the extent that actual compensation and full required compensation for inflation differ. The recording of negative real interest is not compatible with the exclusion of holding gains/losses from the SNA current accounts. The accounting treatments in Inflation Accounting (capital transfers, additional lending/borrowing, no nominal holding gains/losses) and Annex B (nominal holding gains/losses, no capital transfers, no new lending/borrowing) are contrasted.     

The effects of the Uruguay round: empirical evidence from U.S. industry

This article uses an event study to evaluate the anticipated results of the Uruguay Round on U.S. industry. Economists commonly use computable general equilibrium (CGE) models to predict the net economic efficiency effects of trade agreements. The event study method represents a complementary approach that relies on stock price movements to assess how investors predict that an event, in this case the conclusion of the Uruguay Round, will affect industry profitability. The empirical estimates indicate that U.S. industries with comparative advantage (disadvantage) experience positive (negative) stock price reactions, reflecting an increase (a decrease) in the industry trade and investment opportunities as well as an increased (decreased) return to existing tangible and intangible assets. For the market as a whole, the variation in stock prices does not differ significantly from zero, and the economic magnitude of industry gains and losses is small. These results are consistent with most CGE assessments and with the skeptical attitude that the real impact of the Uruguay Round Agreement remains uncertain.     

THE IMPACT OF CAPITAL GAINS ON THE DISTRIBUTION OF INCOME IN BELGIUM

In an earlier paper, we presented estimates of capital gains for a number of categories of assets owned by Belgian households. The purpose of the present paper is to see how the distribution of disposable income between socio-economic groups is modified when one adopts a "broadened" definition of income which includes capital gains corrected for losses of purchasing power.
The main result of the study is that at current prices, the adoption of a broadened definition of income strongly increases disparities between socio-economic groups. However, when one takes into account losses in purchasing power, conclusions differ according to the period analyzed. For the years 1953–68, it appears that the distribution of broadened disposable income is more unequal than the distribution of disposable income. For the years 1969–77 when inflation was high, the adoption of a broadened definition of income has reduced disparities, with the important exception of old age pensioners.     

Environmental Tax Reform and Government Expenditure

In a simple model of production with an imported polluting resource and involuntary unemployment we consider the effects of energy taxes, holding the real wage constant, under differing levels of government expenditure and externalities. Simulations reveal conflict between the goals of net welfare, employment and profitability over much of the relevant parameter range, thus extending the usual discussion of multiple dividends. However, potential net welfare and employment gains are substantial for plausible parameters. The optimal energy tax declines as government expenditure rises and is less than the Pigovian tax for plausible externalities.     

Fire sales by euro area banks and funds: What is their asset price impact?

The assets under management of investment funds have soared in recent years, triggering a debate on their possible implications for financial stability. We contribute to this debate assessing the asset price impact of fire sales in a novel partial equilibrium model of euro area funds and banks calibrated over the period between 2008 and 2017. An initial shock to yields causes funds to sell assets to address investor redemptions, while both banks and funds sell assets to keep their leverage constant. These fire sales generate second-round price effects. We find that the potential losses due to the price impact of fire sales have decreased over time for the system. The contribution of funds to this impact is lower than that of banks. However, funds’ relative contribution has risen due to their increased assets under management and banks’ lower leverage and rebalancing towards loans. Should this trend continue, funds will become an increasingly important source of systemic risk.     

PARETO HONOURING POVERTY REDUCTION

Policy reforms often pit the poor against the poor by triggering a fall in poverty for some but an increase in poverty for others. Aggregated national measures gloss over these fine patterns and pronounce ‘a reduction in poverty’– is such aggregation across poor individuals ethically permissible? Addressing this type of aggregation is a hard issue. This paper has made an attempt in that direction by outlining an axiomatically grounded aggregate measure of such gains or losses, duly giving more importance to the losses to a poor compared to the gains of another poor.     

Accounting for unexpected capital gains on natural assets in Net National Product

Failure to separate unexpected capital gains and losses on natural assets from depletion breaks the link between Net National Product (NNP) and sustainability. For resource rich countries this can lead to large spurious fluctuations in NNP, making it virtually useless for policy purposes. In contrast, when depletion is measured correctly, the link between NNP and sustainability is restored and there is no reason to expect NNP to be any more volatile than GNP. Oil data for Great Britain and Indonesia are used to illustrate the very significant impact that the treatment of capital gains and depletion can have on NNP.First version received: February 2003/Final version received: September 2003The author would like to thank Jack Pezzey and two anonymous referees for helpful comments.     

金融资产公允价值变动的价值相关性研究

本文以2007—2008年沪深A股公司为研究样本,对我国新会计准则制度下交易性金融资产和可供出售金融资产分别记入利润表和资产负债表的公允价值变动进行了价值相关性检验。结果发现:交易性金融资产的公允价值变动损益的价值相关性显著高于可供出售金融资产的公允价值变动净额的价值相关性。     

Profitability and Concentration in Australian Manufacturing Industries 1970-71 to 1972-73:A Further Examination*

In a recent issue of the Economic Record, D. K. Round found that, using I.A.C. data for 32 industries for the period 1970-71 to 1972–1973, sales-based measures of profitability were linked positively and significantly with concentration, but that funds-based measures showed a negative relationship. In this paper, the I AC profitability ratios are adjusted from an historical cost to a current value basis. Regressions of the adjusted profitability ratios on concentration, over the period 1970-71 to 1972-73, conflict with Round's finding that the concentration coefficient using net profit/sales was significant, and a much weaker relationship is found with all of the regressions that used adjusted, as compared to unadjusted, I AC profitability ratios.     

Does board gender diversity influence firm profitability? A control function approach

We investigate the relation between board gender diversity and firm profitability using the control function (CF) approach recently suggested by Wooldridge (2015). The CF method takes account of the problem of endogenous explanatory variables that have potential to bias the results. Using a sample of firms that made up the S&P 500 over the period 2004–2015, we find that the presence of women on corporate boards (measured either by the percentage of female directors on corporate boards or the Blau index of heterogeneity) has a positive and significant (at the 1% level) effect on firm profitability (measured by the return on assets). We compare our results to more traditional approaches (such as pooled OLS or the fixed-effects model). Through this study, we shed light on the effect of women on corporate boards on firm performance, as it is still a controversial issue (Post and Byron, 2015).     

中小企业应收账款形成原因及完善管理之浅见

应收账款管理滞后已经成为制约我国企业生存和发展的瓶颈。应收账款作为一个会计科目,与其相关的会计数据进行综合分析能充分反映一个企业经营管理能力和资产盈利能力。应收账款的持有规模和持有时间对企业持续经营和发展具有重要的意义。目前,我国大部分企业应收账款管理意识比较淡漠,管理方式比较单一。许多企业因应收账款管理不善导致现金流紧张,甚至陷入财务危机。本文在分析国内外应收账款研究现状的基础上,进一步对我国中小企业应收账款的管理现状及存在问题进行了剖析,并相应提出了建议和措施。     

Are stocks desirable in tax-deferred accounts?

Existing literature suggests that, in order to maximize the tax benefit of retirement accounts, investors should follow a “pecking order” location rule of placing highly taxed assets (e.g., bonds) in a tax-deferred account and lightly taxed assets (e.g., stocks) in a taxable account. Empirical evidence, however, documents that a large number of investors violate this rule. In this paper, we show that such violations can be optimal for risk-averse investors who face portfolio constraints. In particular, while the strategy of placing bonds in the tax-deferred account maximizes the expected level of tax benefit, it may lead to volatile benefits under different realizations of stock returns. By holding a similar portfolio in both accounts, investors can achieve a more balanced growth in the two accounts, minimize the likelihood of violating the constraints in the future and hence “smooth” the volatility of the tax benefit. For some risk-averse investors, this smoothing motive can lead to the observed violation of the pecking order location rule. Our model predicts that such violations are more likely when future tax benefits are more volatile, which can occur, for example, when: (i) the tax rate differential across assets increases over time due either to tax law changes or to tax bracket changes for investors; (ii) asset returns are more volatile; and (iii) investors anticipate large future liquidity needs.     

Meaningful Measures of the Current Account

Since the conventional current account uses cash-flow accounting, it is potentially devoid of economic meaning. Assessing foreign assets at market values and including expected transfers from abroad, this paper reports two measures of the external surplus that are grounded in economic theory. The first measure is the aggregate generational current account, annual differences in the sum of net foreign assets across all current and future generations. The second measure is the generational profile of net foreign assets in a benchmark year. These ideas are implemented with data from Korea.     

The impact of mergers on acquiring firm shareholder wealth: The 1905–1930 experience

From the standpoint of investors successful acquisitions increase profitability and stock Contemporary studies find acquiring firm shareholders earning small gains before and large losses after consolidation. Using modern financial market procedures, we examine a portfolio of 191 acquiring firms from 1905 to 1930 to determine the impact on firm owners of early industrial acquisitions in the United States and the effect of institutional changes on takeover gains. Acquisitions from 1905 to 1930 raised shareholder wealth by more than 3 percent, an increase exceeding gains from more recent mergers. Stock price continued to rise after completion for acquisitions before World War I, but fell dramatically for acquisitions during the oligopoly merger wave of the late 1920s.We would like to thank Patrick Byrne and Tara Nussman for help in collecting the financial data, Ralph Nelson for permitting us to use his and Carl Eis's worksheets on merger activity from 1905 to 1930, and George Bittlingmayer, Malcolm Burns, David Gulley, Stephen Grubaugh, Lori Leeth, John Matsusaka, Dennis Mueller, Rexford Santerre, Scott Sumner, Tugrul Temel, and Nikhil Varaiya for their helpful comments.     

INTEREST,DISTRIBUTION OF VALUE ADDED AND INFLATION: INFLATION-INDUCED DIFFICULTIES IN THE INTERPRETATION OF DUTCH NATIONAL ACCOUNTS*

The present paper examines the inflationary bias of sectoral income transactions in national accounting data. An inconsistency of these data is pointed out. Alternative income measures are estimated by adjusting the standard national accounting data for inflationary gains and losses. These gains and losses arise from financing by loan capital. Several issues concerning income concepts and alternative methods for the measurement of inflationary gains and losses are discussed. It is concluded that an adjustment of sectoral income data for these gains and losses produces a very different picture of the sectoral distribution of income.     

Evolution of banking efficiency within an unstable macroeconomic environment: the case of Turkish commercial banks

This paper analyses the efficiency performance of the Turkish banking sector between 1988 and 1999, a period characterized by increasing macroeconomic instability. The technical and scale efficiencies of Turkish commercial banks are measured with the use of nonparametric Data Envelopment Analysis. The empirical results suggest that over the sample period both pure technical and scale efficiency measures show a great variation and the sector did not achieve sustained efficiency gains. It is also reported that the sector suffers mainly from scale inefficiency and scale inefficiency, in turn, is due to decreasing returns to scale. There are also reported differences in the efficiency performance of commercial banks with different ownership status. In addition, the relationships between profitability, asset quality, size and the two definitions of efficiency are considered. Efficient banks are more profitable, and pure technical efficiency and scale inefficiency are positively related to size. The trend in the performance levels over the period suggests that macroeconomic conditions had a profound influence on the efficiency measures.