Shiller's CAPE: Market Efficiency and Risk

Robert Shiller shows that Cyclically Adjusted Price to Earnings Ratio (CAPE) is strongly associated with future long‐term stock returns. This is often interpreted as evidence of market inefficiency. We present two findings contrary to such an interpretation. First, if markets are efficient, stock returns should be higher than the risk‐free rate. We find that even when CAPE is in its ninth decile, future 10‐year stock returns, on average, are higher than future returns on 10‐year U.S. Treasurys. Thus, the results are largely consistent with market efficiency. Second, consistent with a risk–return tradeoff, we find that CAPE is negatively associated with future stock market volatility.     

Assessing Selectivity and Market Timing Performance of Mutual Funds for an Emerging Market: The Case of Turkey

This paper derives and analyzes the selectivity and market timing performance of the mutual funds for the Turkish economy for the financial crisis period by employing high-frequency data. The determinants of these derived abilities are investigated within a regression analysis. The results suggest weak evidence about selection ability and some evidence about superior market timing quality. They also indicate that management fees are negatively correlated with the ability measure, which is quite surprising. Experience emerges as an important factor, especially for market timing ability.     

On the predictability of stock prices: A case for high and low prices

This paper contributes to technical analysis (TA) literature by showing that the high and low prices of equity shares are largely predictable only on the basis of their past realizations. Moreover, using their forecasts as entry/exit signals can improve common TA trading strategies applied on US equity prices. We propose modeling high and low prices using a simple implementation of a fractional vector autoregressive model with error correction (FVECM). This model captures two fundamental patterns of high and low prices: their cointegrating relationship and the long-memory of their difference (i.e., the range), which is a measure of volatility.     

Behavioural Finance: A Review and Synthesis

I provide a synthesis of the Behavioural finance literature over the past two decades. I review the literature in three parts, namely, (i) empirical and theoretical analyses of patterns in the cross‐section of average stock returns, (ii) studies on trading activity, and (iii) research in corporate finance. Behavioural finance is an exciting new field because it presents a number of normative implications for both individual investors and CEOs. The papers reviewed here allow us to learn more about these specific implications.     

Real‐Time Forecasting and Political Stock Market Anomalies: Evidence for the United States

Using monthly data from 1953 to 2003, we apply a real‐time modeling approach to investigate the implications of U.S. political stock market anomalies for forecasting excess stock returns in real‐time. Our empirical findings show that political variables, chosen on the basis of widely used model‐selection criteria, are often included in real‐time forecasting models. However, political variables do not contribute systematically to improving the performance of simple trading rules. For this reason, political stock market anomalies are not necessarily an indication of market inefficiency.     

Crowdfunding: The collaborative economy for channelling institutional and household savings

The financial disintermediation mechanism known as “loan-based-crowdfunding” has recently come under regulation in several countries. This competitive investment and finance vehicle is already well established in the US and British markets.By compiling empirical data from a reference crowdfunding platform, this article compares loan-based crowdfunding with traditional investment vehicles such as investment funds, equities or pension funds.The conclusion of the study is that saving through crowdfunding allows the optimization of a portfolio comprising both institutional and retail investors.     

Liquidity and capital under uncertainty and changing market sentiment: A simple analysis

This study introduces a general approach to investigate resource allocation and asset prices in an economy with uncertainty and shifts in market sentiment. The approach presents a number of key features: first, it proposes a choice-theoretic model that determines the utility that the agents derive from holding assets with different liquidity. Second, it incorporates a variable (endogenously-determined) cost structure of asset liquidation, which reflects the (in)efficiencies of the financial infrastructure and changes in market moods. Third, it also incorporates a model of expectations formation under uncertainty and changing market sentiment. While rich in structure, the approach offers a simple analytical framework to investigate resource allocation decision and asset price dynamics under various sources of uncertainty, and to explore the micro-economics of speculative bubbles and boom–bust sequences. The use of a possible market-specific prudential policy tool is discussed.     

The effects of environmental,social and governance disclosures and performance on firm value: A review of the literature in accounting and finance

This paper not only attempts to survey the burgeoning literature on environmental, social and governance disclosures and performance and their effects on firm value, but its focus also lies on highlighting stylised observations coming from the most recent work that has not yet become part of the ‘conventional wisdom’ in the field. In addition, it outlines some of the crucial knowledge gaps and interesting questions that have not, as of yet, been addressed and thus outlines a potential agenda for future research on socially responsible investing. Lastly, it introduces the papers published in this special issue of the British Accounting Review.