Short‐Horizon Return Predictability in International Equity Markets

This study measures the degree of short‐horizon return predictability of 50 international equity markets and examines how its variation is related to the indicators of equity market development. Two multiple‐horizon variance ratio tests are employed to measure the degree of return predictability. We find evidence that return predictability is negatively correlated with publicly available indicators of equity market development. Our cross‐sectional regression analysis shows that the per capita gross domestic product, market turnover, investor protection, and absence of short‐selling restrictions are correlated with cross‐market variations in return predictability.     

‘Hot’ Debt Markets and Capital Structure

This paper examines the motives of debt issuance during hot‐debt market periods and its impact on capital structure over the period 1970–2006. We find that perceived capital market conditions as favourable, an indication of market timing, and adverse selection costs of equity (i.e., information asymmetry) are important frictions that lead certain firms to issue more debt in hot‐ than cold‐debt market periods. Using alternative hot‐debt market issuance measures and controlling for other effects, such as structural shifts in the debt market, industry, book‐to‐market, price‐to‐earnings, size, tax rates, debt market conditions and adjustment costs based on debt credit ratings, we find that firms with high adverse selection costs issue substantially more (less) debt when market conditions are perceived as hot (cold). Moreover, the results indicate that there is a persistent hot‐debt market effect on the capital structure of debt issuers; hot‐debt market issuing firms do not actively rebalance their leverage to stay within an optimal capital structure range.     

Short‐ and Long‐Term Effects of Multimarket Trading

We analyze short‐ and long‐term effects of multimarket trading by examining the entries of multiple markets into transacting three ETFs, DIA, QQQ, and SPY. We find that large‐scale entries improve overall market quality, while small‐scale entries have ambiguous effects. Our results show that the competition effect dominates the fragmentation effect over a long horizon and that market fragmentation leads to a decline in trading costs. Further, we find that the order handling rules help mitigate the fragmentation effect and facilitate the competition effect. We do not find that multimarket trading harms price efficiency or increases price volatility.     

Short‐Term Performance of U.S.‐Bound Chinese IPOs

Firms from emerging markets, including China, increasingly seek to raise capital outside of their home markets. We examine the short‐term performance of U.S.‐bound Chinese initial public offerings (IPOs) and find that these IPOs have significantly lower underpricing than a matched sample of U.S. counterparts. We also find that the magnitude of IPO underpricing for U.S.‐bound Chinese firms is positively related to revisions in offer price.     

Relative Liquidity,Fund Flows and Short‐Term Demand: Evidence from Exchange‐Traded Funds

We show that highly liquid Exchange‐Traded Funds (ETFs), especially those that are more liquid than their underlying basket of securities (i.e., positive relative liquidity), are particularly attractive to investors. Using three definitions of liquidity, we find that relative liquidity predicts net fund flows, as well as inflows and outflows positively and significantly. We further document a liquidity clientele among institutional investors: (i) relative liquidity is significantly more important for short‐ than for long‐term investors; and (ii) relative liquidity is inversely related to investors’ average holding duration in the ETFs. These two findings provide evidence that relative liquidity encourages short‐term demand.     

Institutional Ownership and Return Reversals Following Short‐Term Return Consistency

Securities with consistently strong positive (negative) returns during the previous two weeks have future returns that are higher (lower) than those that do not. The results hold for various robustness checks, including those involving firm size, share turnover, past return levels, and bid‐ask bounce. The returns to short horizon consistency trading strategies are reliable through time and are both economically and statistically significant. There is also some evidence that longer periods of consistency lead to greater risk‐adjusted profits. Most surprising is that this effect holds only for those firms with high institutional ownership.     

Short‐Term Corporate Debt around the World

Short‐term corporate debt as a proportion of total debt issued by public firms varies greatly across countries, between 28% in the United States and 78% in China. This paper argues that the interaction between information asymmetry and legal protection of creditors is an important determinant of debt maturity. When short‐term debt plays a dual role as signaling and commitment devices, a reduction in information asymmetry has a larger impact on debt maturity when creditor rights are weaker. We find empirical support for this prediction using firm‐level data from 45 countries around the world.     

The Effects of Unanticipated Macroeconomic News on Debt Markets

We examine the effects of unanticipated macroeconomic news on two interest rate futures using intraday data. The surprises are identified on the basis of their potential effects on debt markets (positive or negative) and by their size (large, medium, or small). The results show distinct ex‐post return patterns associated with different categories of news surprises. For example, large surprises have the strongest immediate effects whereas negative surprises have the longest persisting effects. Tests that examine the separate effects of each announcement suggest that debt responses vary with the size and potential effect of the news surprise in each announcement.     

Agency Costs and the Short‐Run Stock Price Response to Capital Expenditures

We estimate the short‐run stock price response to unanticipated capital expenditures. We use association study methodology to avoid the self‐selection bias in event studies and to facilitate construction of a large sample of firm‐years likely to exhibit agency problems. We find that the average price response to routine capital expenditures is negative, and that commonly used agency cost measures explain fully the negative response. Subsample results support the conclusion that the market is skeptical of cash flow financed spending by low‐q firms and even capital spending by high‐q firms when the firm is large and q is only marginally high.     

Price Discovery in Near‐ and Away‐from‐the‐Money Option Markets

This paper examines the relative price discovery roles of near‐ and away‐from‐the‐money option markets. The evidence shows that, when considering multiple options with different strike prices jointly, option markets have an average information share of 17.6%. However, no individual option market dominates in the price discovery process, higher and lower trading activity options (i.e., near‐ and away‐from‐the‐money options, respectively) each contribute approximately equally to this process. The main implications of these results are that (1) collectively, option markets process a substantial amount of new stock price‐related information, and (2) looking across strike prices, option markets appear to be informationally nonredundant.     

Volatility‐Spillover Effects in European Bond Markets

Volatility spillover from the US and aggregate European bond markets into individual European bond markets using a GARCH volatility‐spillover model is analysed. Strong statistical evidence of volatility spillover from the US and aggregate European bond markets is found. For EMU countries, the US volatility‐spillover effects are rather weak (in economic terms) whereas the European volatility‐spillover effects are strong. The bond markets of EMU countries have become much more integrated after the introduction of the euro, and in recent years they have become close to being perfectly integrated. The main driver of the integration appears to be convergence in interest rates.     

Information Transmission in the World Money Markets

Using 1,966 daily observations since the introduction of the euro, we apply cointegration and error correction tests to examine information transmission in the major world money markets as represented by the domestic CD markets and the Eurocurrency market for the US dollar, euro, Japanese yen, and British pound sterling. Our inter‐market tests show a high degree of integration and interdependency among inter‐market interest rates. Our intra‐market results show that $ LIBOR and LIBOR rates drive LIBOR and £ LIBOR. Application of Johansen's (1988) multivariate test procedure and Gonzalo and Granger's (1995) long‐memory components technique confirms and reinforces our intra‐market findings that the system of four LIBOR rates is fully integrated (i.e., three cointegrating vectors), with the single common trend driven by $ LIBOR and LIBOR. These results are consistent with the strength of the dollar and yen relative to the pound sterling and the euro during the developing world financial crisis in late 2008.     

The Impact of Cross‐Listing on the Home Market's Information Environment and Stock Price Efficiency

We empirically examine changes in information asymmetry and informational efficiency of cross‐listed stocks in their home market around a cross‐listing in the United States. We estimate intraday market microstructure measures of information asymmetry and price efficiency, and find that a U.S. cross‐listing significantly improves the quality of a firm's information environment and stock price efficiency in the home market. This improvement is stronger for cross‐listings that take place after the adoption of Sarbanes‐Oxley Act. Our results demonstrate that stricter disclosure from a U.S. cross‐listing is beneficial, in line with the legal and reputational bonding hypotheses.     

The Beauty Contest and Short‐Term Trading

Short‐termism need not breed informational price inefficiency even when generating beauty contests. We demonstrate this claim in a two‐period market with persistent liquidity trading and risk‐averse, privately informed, short‐term investors and find that prices reflect average expectations about fundamentals and liquidity trading. Informed investors engage in “retrospective” learning to reassess inferences (about fundamentals) made during the trading game's early stages. This behavior introduces strategic complementarities in the use of information and can yield two stable equilibria that can be ranked in terms of liquidity, volatility, and informational efficiency. We derive implications that explain market anomalies as well as empirical regularities.     

The Long‐Term Effect of the Sarbanes‐Oxley Act on Cross‐Listing Premia

This paper uses a triple difference approach to assess whether the adoption of the Sarbanes‐Oxley Act predicts long‐term changes in cross‐listing premia of affected foreign firms. I measure cross‐listing premia as the difference between the Tobin's q of a cross‐listed company and a non‐cross‐listed company from the same country matched on propensity to cross‐list (first difference). I find that average premia for firms cross‐listed on levels 2 or 3 (subject to SOX) declined in the year of SOX adoption (2002) and remained significantly below their pre‐SOX level through year‐end 2005 (second difference). Firms listed on levels 2 or 3, which are subject to SOX, experienced larger declines in premia than firms listed on levels 1 or 4, which are not subject to SOX (third difference). The estimated decline is 0.15–0.20 depending on specification. Riskier firms and firms from high‐disclosing and high‐GDP countries suffered larger post‐SOX declines. Firm size predicts smaller declines in premia in well‐governed countries. Faster‐growing firms in poorly‐governed countries experienced smaller declines in premia. The results are robust to the use of different before‐and‐after periods; the use of annual, quarterly, or monthly data; the use of individual companies' Tobin's q's instead of matched pairs, and different regression specifications. The overall evidence is consistent with the view that SOX negatively affected cross‐listed premia, and particularly hurt riskier firms and firms from well‐governed countries, while perhaps helping high‐growth firms from poorly‐governed countries. At the same time, after‐SOX, level‐23 firms continue to enjoy a substantial premium, estimated at about 0.32.     

Return Characteristics of State‐Owned and Non‐State‐Owned Chinese A Shares

This study examines and compares stock returns and volatilities between state‐owned (SO) and non‐state‐owned (NSO) firms on the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges. Results vary significantly by exchange. Returns for both firm types, on both exchanges, exhibit negative skewness and high kurtosis inconsistent with a normal distribution. Returns display significant autocorrelation, even after the removal of lower‐order effects. Granger causality tests reveal that Shenzhen returns significantly lead Shanghai returns. Within both exchanges, SO firms lead NSO firms. Neither SO nor NSO firm shares are dominated in terms of second‐order stochastic dominance.     

Determinants of Investor Demand for Cross‐Listed Firms

By focusing on the decisions of investors to invest in cross‐listed stocks, this paper presents new evidence on why we observe striking differences in the percentage of trade in foreign markets for cross‐listed stocks. With a large sample of Toronto Stock Exchange (TSX) stocks cross‐listed in the U.S. and Canada, we document the effect of investor recognition and risk characteristics on the distribution of trading volume. Firms that are more visible to American investors are traded more heavily in the U.S. At the same time, firms that offer diverse risk characteristics are attractive to Americans. While investors understand the benefits of international diversification, as they are attracted to stocks that are different (e.g., the stock of small firms with few assets in the U.S.), they also seek stocks that provide them with high returns.     

The Importance of Industry and Country Effects in the EMU Equity Markets

Most empirical studies find that country effects are larger than industry effects in stock returns, although industry effects have gained in importance recently. Our results support the dominance of country effects relative to industry and common effects in the EMU equity markets in the 1975–2001 period. However, there is an increasing importance of industry effect relative to country effect in the 1990s. In fact, industry effects is similar in magnitude to country effect in the post‐euro period. The evolution of the ratio of country to industry effect is explained by the decrease in the cross‐sectional variance of interest rate movements across EMU countries. Thus, there is evidence that nominal convergence has reduced the differences between national equity markets.     

Distinguishing Between Rationales for Short‐Horizon Predictability of Stock Returns

In this paper, we shed light on short‐horizon return reversals. We show theoretically that a risk‐based rationale for reversals implies a relation between returns and past order flow, whereas a reversion in beliefs of biased agents does not do so. The empirical results indicate that returns are more strongly related to own‐return lags than to lagged order imbalances. Thus, the evidence suggests that monthly reversals are not completely captured by inventory effects and may be driven, in part, by belief reversion. We do find that returns are cross‐sectionally related to lagged imbalance innovations at horizons longer than a month.