WARRANT PRICING USING OBSERVABLE VARIABLES

The classical warrant pricing formula requires knowledge of the firm value and of the firm‐value process variance. When warrants are outstanding, the firm value itself is a function of the warrant price. Firm value and firm‐value variance are then unobservable variables. I develop an algorithm for pricing warrants using stock prices, an observable variable, and stock return variance. The method also enables estimation of firm‐value variance. A proof of existence of the solution is provided.     

The Sophisticated and the Simple: the Profitability of Contrarian Strategies

A variety of variables have been used to form contrarian portfolios, ranging from relatively simple measures, like book‐to‐market, cash flow‐to‐price, earnings‐to‐price and past returns, to more sophisticated measures based on the Ohlson model and residual income model (RIM). This paper investigates whether: (i) contrarian strategies based on RIM perform better or worse than those based on the Ohlson model; (ii) contrarian strategies based on more sophisticated valuation models (e.g. Ohlson and RIM) perform much better than the relatively simpler ranking variables that have been used so extensively in the finance literature. Given that the RIM and Ohlson models require greater information inputs and technical know‐how, and make different implicit assumptions on future abnormal earnings, it is important to ascertain if they offer significantly greater contrarian profits to outweigh the increased costs that they entail. Indeed, our surprising finding is that simple cash flow‐to‐price measures appear to do almost as well as the more sophisticated alternatives. One would have expected the sophisticated models to significantly outperform the simple cash flow to price model for the reasons given by Penman (2007) .     

The effect of SFAS 131 on the stock market’s ability to predict industry‐wide and firm‐specific components of future earnings

This study examines the impact of SFAS 131 on the extent to which stock prices incorporate industry‐wide and firm‐specific components of future earnings. By decomposing earnings into industry‐wide and firm‐specific components, this paper finds that the firms that aggregated segments under the old rule experience significant acceleration in the incorporation of future earnings into current stock prices upon adoption of SFAS 131. However, the acceleration of future earnings is mostly driven by the improved incorporation of industry‐wide components of future earnings, which indicates the market’s ability to predict firm‐specific components is not significantly changed. Supplemental analysis suggests that the reduced geographic earnings information is one possible reason for lack of improvement in incorporating firm‐specific earnings into price.     

INFORMATION ASYMMETRY,DIVIDEND STATUS,AND SEO ANNOUNCEMENT‐DAY RETURNS

We analyze the relation between the dividend‐paying status of a firm and the seasoned equity offering (SEO) announcement‐day return. Asymmetric information theory suggests there should be a positive relation: the larger the disagreement, particularly between managers and shareholders, the larger the price drop on the SEO announcement day. However, this theoretical result has not been supported by prior empirical research. In this article we reconcile the gap between the theory and extant empirical results by identifying a structural change in the way the stock market treats dividend‐paying firms. Since the mid‐1980s the difference in information asymmetry between dividend‐ and non‐dividend‐paying firms has increased sharply. As a result, before the mid‐1980s the market did not differentiate strongly between them, but subsequently the market has reacted less negatively to announcements by dividend payers.     

Explaining share price disparity with parameter uncertainty: Evidence from Chinese A- and H-shares

The price disparity between the A- and H-share markets for dual-listed firms in China is one of the most intriguing puzzles in the Mainland and Hong Kong financial markets. In this paper, we revisit this price disparity puzzle using the channel of parameter uncertainty. In the presence of information asymmetry and market segmentation, investors have different views on a firm’s asset volatility, and hence different valuations of the same reference firm. We estimate a structural model for equity pricing using a Bayesian approach, in which the uncertainty of investor model parameters is represented by the posterior standard deviation of the firm’s asset volatility. Our regression analysis shows that in addition to other market-based and macro factors, parameter uncertainty explains variations in price disparity.     

Unit Ipos: The Who,When, And Why Of Warrant Amendment

Although unit initial public offering (IPO) firms reserve the right to amend the original terms of their warrants, only some choose to extend the exercise period, lower the exercise price, or both. We examine the extent of warrant amendment among unit IPOs and find that the decision to amend is related to the need for cash and is generally employed when share prices are closer to the original warrant exercise prices. Furthermore, extension is less likely when the firm is riskier, whereas higher levels of insider ownership significantly reduce the likelihood that a firm will lower the exercise price.     

Stock price firm‐specific information on the choice of stock payment in mergers and acquisitions

Previous studies on the choice of stock payment in M&A mainly focus on managerial private information. This study shows that managers also learn new firm‐specific information from financial markets in making this decision. The acquirer's stock price firm‐specific information increases the stock‐payment‐to‐Q sensitivity. The target's stock price firm‐specific information decreases the stock payment probability. Further analyses on deal and firm characteristics as well as shareholder wealth in stock mergers support the managerial learning argument. Overall, this study highlights a new set of information that affects the form of merger payment in mergers and acquisitions.     

Impact of Imperfect Information on the Optimal Exercise Strategy for Warrants

In this paper, we determine the optimal exercise strategy for corporate warrants if investors suffer from imperfect information and we evaluate the impact of this friction on the value of a warrant. For this purpose, we address both exercises at maturity, where imperfect information about the firm value is present, and exercises before maturity which are impacted by imperfect information about the size of the dividend. We model imperfect information so that all warrant holders know that they obtain biased signals of the true state without observing the signals of other warrant holders. The optimal exercise strategy follows from a complex game among warrant holders in which every individual warrant holder must account for the potential signals of the other warrant holders and their resulting exercise decisions. The main findings are that due to imperfect information warrant holders optimally start to exercise their warrants later than without imperfect information. Moreover, a simple block exercise strategy is always an equilibrium strategy for a high degree of imperfect information before maturity, even though a partial exercise can be the unique strategy without imperfect information. Remarkably, imperfect information does not necessarily result in a lower warrant value. As long as a warrant holder has a signal that allows for correct exercise decisions, then imperfect information enhances the warrant value due to suboptimal exercises by other investors.     

A theory of risk disclosure

In this paper, we consider the price effects of risk disclosure. We develop a model in which investors are uncertain about the variance of a firm’s cash flows and the firm releases an imperfect signal regarding this variance. In our model, uncertainty over the riskiness of a firm’s cash flows leads to a variance uncertainty premium in its price. We demonstrate that risk disclosure decreases the firm’s cost of capital by reducing this premium and that the market response to risk disclosure is small when the expected level of risk is high. Moreover, we find that firms acquire and disclose more risk information when their cash flow risk is greater than expected. Finally, we demonstrate that in a multi-asset setting, only risk disclosure concerning systematic risks will impact the cost of capital.     

DOES IT PAY TO DISCLOSE MANAGERIAL EARNINGS INFORMATION EARLY?

Does it pay to voluntarily disclose the manager's private information about the firm's earnings prospects before the mandatory announcement date? This question has been a subject of much debate because prior research establishes both benefits and costs of early information disclosure. We provide evidence on the net effect of such disclosure by examining its impact on firm value. Using a large sample and correcting for self‐selection bias, we find that early disclosure of the manager's private earnings information enhances the end‐of‐period value of the firm.     

Economic determinants of price informativeness about future earnings

This study investigates how the value-creation process affects the extent to which stock prices incorporate value-relevant information about future earnings. In contrast to previous studies focusing on the value-reporting process, this paper shows that strong product market power accelerates the incorporation of future earnings into current equity prices due to less uncertainty about future cash flows and that intensive long-term investment deters such incorporation because of greater uncertainty regarding future cash flows. The results suggest that firm fundamentals shaped by product market competition and long-term investment explain the price informativeness about future earnings beyond the impact of management’s reporting discretion.     

Debt rollover-induced local volatility model

This paper introduces a structural scenario-based model with debt rollover risk and a higher-fidelity treatment of the bankruptcy procedure. The emerging stock price process is a generalized Brownian motion with state-dependent local volatility, and the resultant implied volatility smile is due exclusively to structural features (debt rollover and credit risks). Therefore, the model reinforces structural foundations of local volatility option pricing models. The paper advocates a joint modeling and calibration framework for multiple classes of derivatives on the firm’s asset value. In particular, an empirical application to Solar City equity and stock option valuation demonstrates the versatility and efficiency gains of the suggested model.

     

Insider trading in an equilibrium model with default: a passage from reduced-form to structural modelling

We study, in the framework of Back [Rev. Financial Stud. 5(3), 387–409 (1992)], an equilibrium model for the pricing of a defaultable zero coupon bond issued by a firm. The market consists of a risk-neutral informed agent, noise traders, and a market maker who sets the price using the total order. When the insider does not trade, the default time possesses a default intensity in the market’s view as in reduced-form credit risk models. However, we show that, in equilibrium, the modelling becomes structural in the sense that the default time becomes the first time that some continuous observation process falls below a certain barrier. Interestingly, the firm value is still not observable. We also establish the no expected trade theorem that the insider’s trades are inconspicuous.      

Financial analysts and price discovery

We show that whether or not a bank/brokerage firm has top‐rated financial analysts and high Wall Street Search rankings for their research is significantly related to that firm's contribution to price discovery, the process by which information is incorporated into stock prices. Our study relates cross‐sectional characteristics of the quality of brokerage research, the asymmetric information environment, and order flow volume to a microstructure measure of price discovery developed by Granger and Gonzalo. We measure analysts’ research quality with an industry‐specific ranking by institutional investors, with an opinion survey of trading desk personnel, and with the number of top 3 analysts across all industries employed by the bank/brokerage firm.     

Political uncertainty and firms' information environment: Evidence from China

How political uncertainty affects the supply of value relevant information about a firm is an important but unresolved question. Using an emerging market setting where political leaders are expected to exert significant influence on economic activities, we examine the effect of political uncertainty caused by turnovers of local government leaders on a firm’s information environment. We find that during periods of political uncertainty, the total amount of idiosyncratic information about a firm that is available to the market is reduced. The adverse effect on information supply is manifest in firms that are more politically dependent and stronger when uncertainty is more severe. Further, we provide evidence suggesting that firms react to political uncertainty by reducing the amount and the quality of information provided to investors. We find that information intermediaries such as financial analysts and the media have a moderating effect on the information environment as they increase the production of information during periods of political uncertainty. However, these intermediaries do not negate the net loss of information.     

European Momentum Strategies,Information Diffusion,and Investor Conservatism

In this paper we conduct an out‐of‐sample test of two behavioural theories that have been proposed to explain momentum in stock returns. We test the gradual‐information‐diffusion model of Hong and Stein (1999) and the investor conservatism bias model of Barberis et al. (1998) in a sample of 13 European stock markets during the period 1988 to 2001. These two models predict that momentum comes from the (i) gradual dissemination of firm‐specific information and (ii) investors’ failure to update their beliefs sufficiently when they observe new public information. The findings of this study are consistent with the predictions of the behavioural models of Hong and Stein's (1999) and Barberis et al. (1998) . The evidence shows that momentum is the result of the gradual diffusion of private information and investors’ psychological conservatism reflected on the systematic errors they make in forming earnings expectations by not updating them adequately relative to their prior beliefs and by undervaluing the statistical weight of new information.     

The impact of business group affiliation on stock price informativeness: Evidence from an emerging market

This paper examines the relationship between business group affiliation and stock price informativeness in an emerging market setting. We use stock price synchronicity as a measure, and study the impact of group affiliation ‐specifically the extent of affiliation, ownership structure and existence of group bank‐ on firm specific information content. Results reveal that the amount of firm‐specific information capitalized into stock prices tends to be lower (higher) when the firm is group‐affiliated (unaffiliated), indirectly (directly) owned, and affiliated group has (does not have) a group bank. Additionally, the extent of group affiliation maintains a non‐linear relationship with synchronicity, suggesting that the perception of higher versus lower levels of group ownership differs.     

The market’s use of supplier earnings information to value customers

In this paper we examine whether the quarterly earnings announcements of supplier firms contain information about their customer’s earnings. Our evidence suggests that they do. Specifically, we find evidence consistent with the market impounding supplier firm earnings information into the stock prices of the firm’s customers. This is consistent with the market using the supplier’s earnings to help assess the customer firm’s future cash flows and/or uncertainty of those cash flows. We also find that the quality of the earnings influences the magnitude of the customer firm’s stock price reaction. The customer’s stock price reaction is increasing in the revenue growth reported by the supplier and the past persistence of the supplier’s earnings. Additional tests reveal that the market reaction is amplified when the customer firm is more dependent on the supplier. Finally, we find that the relative bargaining power of the customer influences the market reaction to supplier earnings. While prior research has documented that the market uses industry peer earnings and customer earnings in pricing a firm’s stock, this is the first study to provide evidence on the market’s use of supplier earnings information.     

Market reactions to the closest peer firm’s analyst revisions

Prior analyst literature focuses on the impact of financial analysts on the firms they cover, and prior information-transfer literature concentrates on the externalities of information provided by management. This paper fills gaps in both streams of literature by examining the focal firm’s market reactions to the closest peer firm’s (identified by product similarity) analyst revisions. We find that the focal firm’s stock price reacts to the closest peer’s analyst revisions made by analysts who are not covering the focal firm. The focal firm’s cumulative abnormal return for a five-day window centered on the revision date is 0.54% higher if the peer firm’s analyst revision magnitude is in the top decile than if it is in the bottom decile. Cross-sectional tests show that the sensitivity of the focal firm’s market reactions to the peer firm’s revisions increases with the revision informativeness and the similarity between the focal firm and the peer firm. In addition, we find that focal firms do not react to peer firms’ revisions in industries with strong competition where the competitive effects cancel out the spillover effects. Finally, we find that the focal firm’s market reactions can predict its own future analyst revisions, suggesting that the reactions are at least partially rational.     

Reference Point Theory and Pursuit of Deals

Target and bidder reference points have separate and joint effects on merger deals. A firm whose stock price is more distant from its 52‐week high reference point is less likely to attract bids but has a greater likelihood of being acquired by its own managers (vs unaffiliated bidders). Firm propensity to submit a bid increases if its prevailing stock price is closer to its 52‐week high. When both parties’ reference points are close to their current stock prices, they are more willing to complete a deal. Hostile deals result when the bidder's stock price is closer to its reference point.