The Housing and Credit Bubbles in the United States and Europe: A Comparison

A house price boom occurred simultaneously in the United States and in a number of European countries from 2003 to 2007, accompanied in each case by an expansion in housing finance. This article considers the role of financial innovation along with incomplete markets in these cycles.     

Enforceable Accounting Rules and Income Measurement by Early 20th Century Railroads

We investigate the extent to which income measurement by major early 20th‐century U.S. railroads shows evidence of lower income smoothness and increased conservatism following new fixed asset accounting rules issued by the Interstate Commerce Commission (ICC) in 1907 and 1908 and concurrent rate regulation regime shifts. Accounting rules promulgated by the ICC after the Hepburn Act of 1906 are the first accounting rules in U.S. history in which regulators could enforce such rules under federal law to increase compliance. Our samplewide results are more consistent with increased conservatism than with income smoothing. Additional tests indicate these effects are more pronounced for firms subject to more intense rate regulation by the ICC, which suggests that the tie‐in between accounting regulation and product/service market regulation influences how managers respond to new accounting rules.     

美国影子银行发展及监管改革

随着人们对次贷危机认识和反思的深入,影子银行及其监管成为防范金融危机、维护金融稳定的一个重要议题。本文介绍了美国影子银行的产生、发展和特点,分析了影子银行的脆弱性及其在本次危机中的表现,梳理了美国金融监管法案中对影子银行的监管措施及其对我国的启示。     

Transportation Improvements and Land Values in the Antebellum United States: A Hedonic Approach

We offer county-level estimates of the effect of water and rail access on the value of antebellum farms. Employing a hedonic model, we find that in 1850 average farm values in counties with access to a canal or navigable river were $2.68 per acre greater than counties without such access and $1.80 greater with rail access. In 1860 the figures were $3.75 for a canal or river access and $1.35 for rail. With average farm size around 200 acres and per capita national income roughly $150 during the decade, we conclude that on average transportation access yielded substantial economic gains.     

二十世纪金融变迁的特征

二十世纪金融的历史变迁特征在整个人类历史发展长河中是极为显著的，银行业务的多样化、金融服务的市场化、产权关系的复杂化、金融服务的网络化、全能化、金融的非中介化及金融监管的自由化等巨大变迁带来了金融发展的非均衡状态，导致了二十世纪末持续不断的金融动荡。     

全球金融危机后的中央银行业展望

2007年美国次贷金融危机爆发后,主要国家中央银行采取了前所未有的政策措施.这些措施预示着中央银行业发展的一个分水岭.将对21世纪中央银行业产生深远的影响.金融稳定将成为与价格稳定同等重要的中央银行政策目标,金融危机管理的国际合作水平将上一个新台阶,中央银行维护金融稳定的创新型政策工具将不断涌现,传统的金融安全网将延伸到整个金融体系.中央银行业的这些发展方向,对于中国金融稳定同样具有重要的启示作用.     

美国家庭信贷的变迁

此文是本刊美国特约编辑詹姆斯·巴茨(JamesBarth)博士的荐稿。托马斯A·德金先生(ThomasA.Durkin)是美国联储备委员会的高级经济学家。他的研究表明,从长期的、历史的角度看,伴随着美国经济半个多世纪的持续繁荣,美国家庭信贷呈现出持续增长的态势,但信贷额在家庭总资产中的比重变化不大。总体看来,目前美国家庭并没有过度负债的情况。     

债台高筑的美国经济

美国的财政赤字正以几何级数的速度在增长,但美国人自己并不为此而担心,他们甚至认为负债本身就是一种创造财富的过程。美国的决策者和经济学家们对于真正通过经济中的储蓄和投资所创造的财富和市场上依赖信贷政策鼓吹起来的资产泡沫所创造的"财富",是从来不加以区别的。居高不下的负债和不断增长的赤字消费,使美国成为一个债台高筑的国家。美国的赤字消费是影响全球经济的一个重大问题,对中国经济的影响也十分显著,从长远利益出发,我国的汇率、贸易及产业政策都应进行相应的调整,以确保中国经济长期稳定发展、企业竞争实力不断增强和人民生活水平不断提高。     

The Separation of Banking and Commerce in the United States: An Examination of Principal Issues

Banking law and regulation in the United States have customarily restricted the nonbanking activities of banks and the banking activities of nonbanking firms, producing a separation of banking from commerce. While such separation is surprising in a free market system that, in general, permits private firms to engage in any lawful business, it is understandable in an historical and institutional context. Proposals for change raise a wide range of economic and other issues. This paper identifies, catalogues, and elaborates these issues to provide a framework for informed judgment and further investigation. It begins with a review of early restrictions on bank activities in the United States and contrasts U.S. developments with those in several other countries in which banks have not been separated from commercial and industrial firms. It, then, reviews relevant issues arising in the financial sector, commercial sector, related to central banking and supervision, and socio‐political concerns. It concludes that limited banking, as it exists in the United States, and universal banking, as it exists in other countries, have differential benefits and costs. Summary evaluation based on standard cost benefit analysis, however, presents serious difficulties. Considerable uncertainty remains about effects in a number of areas. Many of the costs and benefits are not quantifiable, and some that are quantifiable are incomparable. A careful review of all existing evidence, identification of gaps, and further investigation is needed.     

The Political Economy of Financial Regulation: Evidence from U.S. State Usury Laws in the 19th Century

Financial regulation was as hotly debated a political issue in the 19th century as it is today. We study the political economy of state usury laws in 19th century America. Exploiting the wide variation in regulation, enforcement, and economic conditions across states and time, we find that usury laws when binding reduce credit and economic activity, especially for smaller firms. We examine the motives of regulation and find that usury laws coincide with other economic and political policies favoring wealthy political incumbents, particularly when they have more voting power. The evidence suggests financial regulation is driven by private interests capturing rents from others rather than public interests protecting the underserved.     

农村信用社发展网上银行业务探悉

随着互联网技术的发展和普及。网上银行业务作为银行业金融机构发展的新型方式和重要的渠道,已成为现代商业银行生存与发展必不可少的竞争手段,面对竞争,农村信用社如何找到自身存在的问题,找准市场定位,及时有效的发展网上银行业务,成为农村信用社发展面对的最大问题。     

20世纪中国的大思想家与大学问家

街上流行“排名榜”,这个十佳,那个百强等等。但是近年来,敢给思想家、学问家排名的人寥若晨星。为什么?排名者要对思想家和学问家说出个子午卯酉来谈何容易!赵士林先生这么做了,我为之叫好。不是完全赞同赵先生的意见,而是能从中进一步了解这些大家,了解赵先生自身的学养,这种提纲式的文字非常难写。最后我还是想说出一点异议来,——那就是,赵先生出于对他的老师李泽厚先生的景仰,是不是超越了一些没有上榜的其他大家了呢?     

美国信用风险转移政策动向

CRT 工具在美国,CRT工具既有传统意义上的贷款出售、银团贷款、证券化等,也有近年大量涌现的信用衍生产品。当发放一笔贷款时,贷款人掌握了大量的关于借款人财务状况及还款能力的信息。在设计CRT工具时,有两个关键的问题,就产生于这一信息收集的过程。第一个问题是如何保护借贷双方已经建立起来的、良好的关系,贷款人往往可能尽量避免在CRT交易中,由于对借款人承诺的减少所带来的对这种关系的损害；第二个问题是原有贷款人相比较潜在的CRT交易对手,原有贷款有更多的信息优势,或者说,交易对手会担心原有     

美国个人信用消费的发展变革与管理

美国个人信用消费的发展先后经历了高利贷、个人借贷、零售信用、分期付款和银行卡等形式：与此相适应，信用管理体系也逐渐完善起来。美国个人信用消费以及信用管理对于我国发展个人信用具有一定的借鉴意义。     

The Effect of Removing Geographic Restrictions on Banking in the United States: Lessons for Europe*

In this paper the author argues that cross‐border, intra‐European bank mergers are likely to generate benefits similar to those enjoyed in the United States when interstate banking restrictions were removed. These benefits include greater banking efficiency, higher economic and employment growth, more entrepreneurial activity, and reduced economic volatility.     

欧美银行全面风险管理体系的缺陷及启示

本次金融危机爆发后,对银行风险管理体系健全性的质疑尘嚣甚上。作者结合在海内外银行业风险管理的工作经验,从全面风险管理的理念、体系、度量和管理四个角度入手,对欧美银行全面风险管理体系中存在的缺陷进行分析,对完善国内银行业的全面风险管理体系提出合理化建议。     

20世纪西方财政学发展及其对我国的启示

20世纪西方财政学的最初发展阶段是新古典财政学的出现,包括安格鲁.萨克森传统和斯堪的纳维亚传统两个分支。20世纪50-70年代,这两大传统完成了对接。随着凯恩斯经济学的产生,西方财政学又演化出宏观财政学。而最近发展的方向是对公共产品供应和最优税收等问题的研究。我国财政理论发展的现实与之相对照,可以发现存在的问题,应通过转变研究范式、解决财政理论研究的核心问题与发展的研究方法等路径,来实现我国财政理论的发展。     

美国共同基金税制考察及评价

基金税制是基金业得以健康发展的一个必要条件。随着我国证券市场的不断完善，基金业已取得了长足的进步，但我国基金税制的建设却还远未跟上发展的需要。本文拟从美国基金税制的现状出发，对美国基金税制进行探讨，试图对我国的基金税制建设起到抛砖引玉的作用。     

Predictable Stock Returns in the United States and Japan: A Study of Long-Term Capital Market Integration

This paper uses the predictability of monthly excess returns on U.S. and Japanese equity portfolios over the U.S. Treasury bill rate to study the integration of long-term capital markets in these two countries. During the period 1971–1990 similar variables, including the dividend-price ratio and interest rate variables, help to forecast excess returns in each country. In addition, in the 1980's U.S. variables help to forecast excess Japanese stock returns. There is some evidence of common movement in expected excess returns across the two countries, which is suggestive of integration of long-term capital markets.