欧洲主权债务危机的内生性与外生性研究

南欧成员国社会福利过度造成的财政支出扩张与经济停滞导致的财政收入收缩是欧洲主权债务危机的内生性成因。美国因素是欧洲主权债务危机的重要外生性解释变量。美国试图通过债务危机打压欧元是为了巩固美元的全球霸权。即使欧洲主权债务危机在短期内对于欧元产生了一定的冲击,但在长期仍有可能造就一个更强大的欧元。     

What we can learn from the early history of sovereign debt

Many people believe that the early development of sovereign debt depended on institutions, but there are two very different ways of presenting this narrative and two very different conclusions one might draw for sovereign debt today. According to the first, this was an impartial story involving executive constraints, shared governance, increased monitoring, and increased transparency — in other words things that sound unambiguously good. According to the second narrative this was a story of distributive politics. States had the best access to credit when institutions gave government creditors privileged access to decision making while restricting the influence of those who paid the taxes to reimburse debts. This was a situation where institutions fostered commitment, but at a cost, and sometimes they may not even have been welfare enhancing. In this paper I present evidence from seven centuries of European history, and I suggest that available data support the distributive politics interpretation. I then draw implications for how we think about the politics of sovereign debt today.     

Exchange market pressure, trade, sovereign credit ratings, and U.S. exports in banking services

As a leader in providing banking services in the global market, it is important to understand the variables that influence U.S. exports in banking services. This paper examines the influence that trade, sovereign credit ratings, and exchange market pressure have on U.S. exports of banking services. The empirical evidence indicates that higher trade activity and a higher sovereign credit rating reduce U.S. exports of banking services. The results also suggest that exchange market pressure positively affects U.S. exports of banking services. Tests for individual and random effects across units suggest most of the variation in the estimators is within units.     

论次级债市场约束及其障碍分析

自2003年12月银监会发布《关于将次级定期债务计入附属资本的通知》,特别是2004年6月《商业银行次级债券发行管理办法》出台后,次级债一直都是市场关注的焦点,各大银行对次级债的兴趣持续高涨,到目前已经有兴业银行、招商银行、浦发银行、中国银行、建设银行和华夏银行先后发行     

“空账”问题的成因及对策分析

一、深刻的社会背景1.制度的变革。1997年是我国社会养老保险制度的一个转折点,在此之前,我国的社会养老保险基本上属于“公共养老”模式,实行现收现付制。1997年,国务院发布文件表示我国试行社会统筹与个人帐户相结合的社会养老保险制度,这是我国在世界上首创的一种新型的基本     

希腊危机与欧洲主权信用危机

迪拜危机连累了欧洲,进而引发了希腊危机。希腊危机背后不仅是欧元危机,更是美国债务危机。全面危机的爆发,将引起欧洲主权信用危机     

本国与东道国的双重机制下——中国主权财富基金压力分析及其解压路径研究

中国主权财富基金——中国投资有限责任公司（CIC）作为中国唯一的主权基金,尚缺乏一套完善的投资策略与投资管理机制。本文从微观层次出发,以CIC的内部治理机制、外部投资困难和东道国机制为研究对象,详细分析了中国主权财富基金在发展过程中存在的问题和面临的压力,并结合我国情况提出了相应的具体解压路径与策略。     

我国主权财富基金的投资选择

21世纪后,全球主权财富基金发展迅速,截止2009年末全球主权财富基金管理的资产规模已高达3.8万亿美元。主权财富基金作为国际金融市场中一支新型的投资力量,对世界和国际金融市场产生了巨大的影响,引起国际社会的广泛关注。我国主权财富基金——中投公司由于成立不久,缺乏海外投资经验,同时还面临西方发达国家对其投资的限制。在这样的背景下,研究我国主权财富基金投资选择具有很强的实际意义。本文在分析我国主权财富基金发展现状基础上,综合考虑我国主权财富基金投资选择的影响因素,提出我国主权财富基金投资选择策略。     

Foreign debt and capital accumulation

Zusammenfassung Devisenschuld und Kapitalakkumulation. — Eine offene Volkswirtschaft kann Kredit aufnehmen, um Kapital zu akkumulieren. In dem Beitrag wird der Fall der Auslandsverschuldung mit einem Szenario verglichen, in dem ein Land seinen Kapitalstock durch Konsumverzicht aufbaut. Die Inzidenz der Verschuldung auf das Zeitprofil des Konsums und der Verschuldung wird analysiert. Das Modell spezifiziert auch das Zeitprofil der Handelsbilanz. Die intertemporalen Opportunit?tskosten der Kreditaufnahme werden er?rtert, und es werden Bedingungen abgeleitet, unter denen sich die Verschuldung für Kapitalbildung und Konsum oder nur für die Kapitalbildung lohnt. Im Paradigma des Modells werden Konstellationen diskutiert, unter denen es für das verschuldete Land schwieriger wird, Zinsen und Tilgung zu zahlen.

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Résumé Dette étrangère et accumulation de capital. — Une économie ouverte peut emprunter á l’étranger pour accumuler du capital. L’auteur compare le cas d’un emprunt étranger avec un scénario dans lequel un pays accumule du capital en remettant la consommation locale. Il analyse l’effet de l’emprunt sur le profil de temps de la consommation et de la dette. Le modèle spécifie aussi le profil de temps de la balance commerciale. Les co?ts d’opportunité d’emprunter sont analysés et les conditions sont spécifiées sous lesquelles il est profitable d’emprunter pour l’accumulation de capital et/oú pour la consommation. Dans le contexte du modèle l’auteur discute quelques phénomènes qui le rendent plus difficile au pays débiteur de payer les intérêts et de rembourser les dettes et même de rompre le contrat de crédit.

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Resumen Deuda externa y acumulación de capital. — En una economía abierta un país puede endeudarse a los efectos de acumular capital. En este trabajo se compara el endeudamiento externo con una situación en la cual un país acumula capital internamente posponiendo el consumo. Se analiza el impacto del endeudamiento sobre el perfil temporal del consumo y de la deuda. El modelo también especifica el perfil temporal del saldo comercial. Se estudian los costos de oportunidad del endeudamiento y se derivan las condiciones bajo las cuales resulta beneficioso endeudarse para acumular capital y/o para consumir. En el contexto del modelo se discuten algunos fenómenos que podrían dificultar al país deudor el pago del servicio de la deuda y de la deuda misma, y que podrían inducir a cuestionar el contrato de crédito.

     

Government debt management

This paper discusses the principles that justify activism ofgovernments in the management of public debt. It starts froma review of the economics literature, which has produced, especiallyin recent years, a number of important propositions on the desirabilityof government interventionism, either for the purpose of filinginformation gaps or to help solve dynamic inconsistency problems.It then considers a number of practical arguments for governmentactivism, stemming from the development of capital markets,and the need to keep up with them. The paper argues that governmentactivism in debt management is much less warranted than thecurrent economic literature or market practices might lead usto believe. The fundamental reason is that governments are nota private actor in the market, and so their optimization problemis radically different from that of other market participants.     

Dynamic products in world exports

The values of three product categories have grown most rapidly in world exports during the period 1980–2000: electrical and electronic goods (including parts and components for such goods), goods from other technology-intensive industries, and labour-intensive products, particularly clothing. A strong geographical concentration at both regional and country levels is discernable regarding the origin of these products from developing countries. There appears to be a sustained movement in world exports towards the growing significance of a limited number of products and it would seem that there has been a rapid and sustained technological upgrading in the export composition of developing countries. However, since the involvement of developing countries is usually limited to the labour-intensive stages in the production process of technology-intensive goods in the context of international production sharing, simple measures of growth in gross export values are poor guides for an assessment of the nature of participation of developing countries in world trade.     

Contemporary protectionism and exports of developing countries

This paper is an investigation of recent changes in trade protection in developed countries and the implications for developing countries. Special attention is paid to the question of why flexible exchange rates have not removed the demands for commercial policy for balance-of-payments purposes, and why adjustment assistance schemes do not eliminate claims for protection from industry disruption. It is argued that there is a ‘hardening’ of protectionist measures with an increasing reliance on price controls, quantity controls and domestic subsidies. While an effort is made to avoid raising false alarms, particularly in recessionary times, the general conclusion that emerges is that the sources and nature of contemporary protection are such that the developing countries have reason for considerable concern about the state of commercial policy.     

货币、国债与赤字

本文介绍了货币非中性功能的论证、现行宏观经济学的缺陷、国债的性质和发行依据,以及利用国际铸币税的条件等,指出科学的货币政策应有信用调节和流动性调节两方面内容,并阐述了运用财政赤字调节信用的原理和发行国债替代央行票据的必要性。     

企业负债融资的分析与策略

现代企业要快速发展,一靠技术革新,二靠大规模资金投入,而大规模资金的来源在哪里?其中,一个最主要的来源就是负债融资,这是市场经济条件下企业筹集大规模资金的必然选择。但是负债融资在给企业带来巨大利益的同时,也会带来一些潜在的风险,企业只有在适度控制负债的前提下,才能实现其价值最大化。     

Recent changes in developing country exports

Conclusions Using statistics on developing country exports of the component products of key processing chains, this study found that the value of these shipments increased considerably over the period 1964–1974. Further, this increase was accompanied by some deconcentration as LDC exports are now composed of higher percentages of semi-finished and manufactured goods. However, the trade data also reveal an erosion of developing country market shares which produces a sizable annual loss in foreign exchange earnings. While further research aimed at identifying factors leading to the declining market shares should receive high priority, the magnitude of the associated trade loss indicates the potential dangers of neglecting traditional exports.