Unequal opportunities and human capital formation

This paper develops a tractable, heterogeneous agents general equilibrium model where individuals have different endowments of the factors that complement the schooling process. The paper explores the relationship between inequality of opportunities, inequality of outcomes, and aggregate efficiency in human capital formation. Using numerical solutions we study how the endogenous variables of the model respond to two different interventions in the distribution of opportunities: a mean-preserving spread and a change in the support. The results suggest that a higher degree of inequality of opportunities is associated with lower average level of human capital, a lower fraction of individuals investing in human capital, higher inequality in the distribution of human capital, and higher wage inequality. In particular, the model does not predict a trade-off between aggregate efficiency in human capital formation (as measured by the average level of human capital in the economy) and equality of opportunity.     

The choice of ownership structure: Evidence from Russian mass privatization

We use a large data set of Russian manufacturing firms to describe the ownership structure in the Russian industry at the end of the mass privatization program in 1994 and its subsequent evolution. The data shows a high, but gradually decreasing ownership stakes of firm insiders (managers and workers). We estimate the effect of a wide range of firm characteristics on the decision to privatize, the initial ownership structure after privatization, and on subsequent changes of ownership stakes. We test and find support for several predictions of the model by Aghion and Blanchard (1998). For example, collusion among workers makes them more reluctant to sell shares to outsiders. Firms in financial distress show a higher incidence of insiders selecting the option of privatization leading to high insider ownership. This can be explained by their desire to insure against unemployment in the case of restructuring by outsiders. No evidence is found of a sequencing in privatization according to the performance of firms before privatization. A methodological novelty of this paper is the application of a tobit model with sample selection to the choice of ownership stakes.     

Efficiency and economies of scale of large Canadian banks

Abstract.  This paper measures the economies of scale of Canada's six largest banks and their cost-efficiency over time. Using a unique panel data set from 1983 to 2003, we estimate pooled cost functions and derive measures of relative efficiency and economies of scale. The disaggregation of the data allows us to include non-traditional outputs as well as time-varying, bank-specific effects. Our model leads us to reject constant returns to scale. These findings suggest there are potential scale benefits in the Canadian banking industry. We also find that technological and regulatory changes have had significant positive effects on the banks' cost structure.     

A Soft Budget Constraint Explanation for the Venture Capital Cycle

Abstract. We explore why venture capital funds limit the amount of capital they raise and do not reinvest the proceeds. This structure is puzzling because it leads to a succession of several funds financing each new venture, which multiplies the well-known agency problems. We argue that an inside investor cannot provide a hard budget constraint while a less informed outsider can. Therefore, the venture capitalist delegates the continuation decision to the outsider by ex ante restricting the amount of capital he has under management. The soft budget constraint problem becomes the more important the higher the entrepreneur's private benefits are and the higher the probability of failure of a project is.     

Mergers and the market for organization capital

In this paper, mergers are an equilibrium outcome in which acquirers “marry” targets so as to gain access to their organization capital. Firms with lower learning costs about the new technology are not necessarily those that manage it best once it is mature. Since there are gains from trade, a market for organization capital can arise through mergers. This model generates a merger wave after a shock to technology and is consistent with several other stylized facts on mergers documented in the literature.     

Distributional conflict in organizations

Hierarchy can function as an instrument to channel influence activities or power struggles in organizations. Contrary to what has frequently been argued, we show that multi-divisional organizations may involve lower influence costs than single-tier organizations, even though they offer more scope for organizational conflict and have more executives that can be influenced. These benefits derive from two effects. First, part of the conflict in multi-divisional organizations takes place on the division level, where a small number of agents fight over only a fraction of the overall prize. Second, by grouping agents into common divisions, multi-divisional organizations create free-rider problems in rent-seeking. Our model sheds new light on the desirability of divestitures and the transition from the U- to the M-form by US corporations in the 1920s.     

Earnings Dynamics and Profile Heterogeneity: Estimates from Japanese Panel Data

The recent empirical work on earnings processes using US panel data finds that ignoring heterogeneity in earnings profiles among individuals leads to an upward bias in the autoregressive parameter of earnings shocks. It then argues that the existing assumptions in incomplete markets and heterogeneous‐agent models, almost all of which require highly persistent earnings shocks and no individual‐specific and group‐specific differences in earnings growth rates, may be inappropriate. This paper investigates the applicability of this US data‐based debate to other developed countries by using a panel of Japanese male earnings. The results indicate that it is possible to corroborate the recent US arguments, despite some differences in the estimates.     

Anticipation effects of technological progress on capital accumulation: a vintage capital approach

Due to embodied technological progress new generations of capital goods are more productive. Therefore, in order to study the effects of technological progress, a model must be analyzed in which different generations of capital goods can be distinguished. We determine in what way the firm adjusts current investments to predictions of technological progress. In the presence of market power we show that a negative anticipation effect occurs, i.e. current investments in recent generations of capital goods decline when faster technological progress will take place in the future, because then it becomes more attractive to wait for new generations of capital goods. In case that only investments in new machines are possible, actually a whole wave of anticipation phases arises.     

Efficiency in Crime Prevention: A Case Study of the Lisbon Precincts

This paper analyzes the technical efficiency of the Lisbon police precincts in order to investigate its performance. A stochastic cost frontier model is used to generate efficiency scores, assuming that efficiency is time varying. It investigates its efficiency and finds that the results are, at best, mixed since the efficient scores are low and not time varying. Therefore, an alteration of management procedures is proposed in order to enable efficiency to be increased based on a governance–environment framework.Financial support from Fundação para a Ciência e Tecnologia/MCT under FCT/POCTI partially funded by FEDER is gratefully appreciated. The authors also thank the participants at the International Atlantic Economic Conference in Lisbon, Portugal, March 10–13, 2004 for helpful comments. For our mistakes, the usual disclaimer applies.     

Global financial crisis,corporate governance,and firm survival:: The Russian experience

Using a unique dataset obtained from large-scale panel enterprise surveys conducted in 2005 and 2009, we clarify the survival status of Russian industrial firms before and after the global financial crisis and empirically examine the determinants of firm survival. The estimation of the Cox proportional hazard model provided evidence that the independence of company’s governance bodies, their human resource abundance, and influence over corporate management are statistically significant factors affecting the survival probability of the surveyed firms. In particular, the board of directors and the audit committee are likely to play a vital role in reducing the potential exit risk. We also found that there is a significant difference in the viewpoints of economic logic for firm survival held by independent firms and group companies.     

Cointegration analysis for cross-sectionally dependent panels: The case of regional production functions

This paper employs recently developed non-stationary panel methodologies that assume cross-section dependence to estimate a production function for Italian regions over the 1970–2003 period. The analysis consists of three steps. First, unit root tests for cross-sectionally dependent panels are applied. Second, the existence of a cointegrating relationship among value added, physical capital and human capital-augmented labour is investigated, fully allowing for cross-section dependence. Then, the appropriate Fully Modified Ordinary Least Square estimators developed by Bai and Kao [Bai, J., Kao, C. 2006. On the Estimation and Inference of a Panel Cointegration Model with Cross-Sectional Dependence. In: B.H. Baltagi (Ed) Panel Data Econometrics: Theoretical Contributions and Empirical Applications, Elsevier Science: Amsterdam; 2006, pp.3–30.] are used to estimate the long-run relationship. We find that neglecting cross-section dependence can have a strong impact on the estimated long-run input elasticities, generally imparting them an upward bias.     

Information Technology and Productivity Changes in the Banking Industry

This paper analyses the effects of investment in information technologies (IT) in the financial sector using micro-data from a panel of 600 Italian banks over the period 1989–2000. Stochastic cost and profit functions are estimated allowing for individual banks' displacements from the best practice frontier and for non-neutral technological change. The results show that both cost and profit frontier shifts are strongly correlated with IT capital accumulation. Banks adopting IT capital-intensive techniques are also more efficient. On the whole, over the past decade IT capital-deepening contribution to total factor productivity growth of the Italian banking industry can be estimated in a range between 1.3 and 1.8 per cent per year.     

VENTURE CAPITAL AND INNOVATION: WHICH IS FIRST?

Policy‐makers typically interpret positive relations between venture capital (VC) investments and innovations as evidence that VC investments stimulate innovation (VC‐first hypothesis). This interpretation is, however, one‐sided because there may be a reverse causality that innovations induce VC investments (innovation‐first hypothesis): an arrival of new technology increases demand for VC. We analyze this causality issue of VC and innovation in the US manufacturing industry using both total factor productivity growth and patent counts as measures of innovation. We find that, consistent with the innovation‐first hypothesis, total factor productivity growth is often positively and significantly related with future VC investment. We find little evidence that supports the VC‐first hypothesis.     

Transition probabilities in a problem of stochastic process switching

Extant solutions for state-contingent process switching use first-passage time densities or differential equations. We alternatively employ transition probabilities. These conditional likelihood functions also have obvious appeal for econometric analyses as well as derivative pricing and decision making under absorption and extinction.     

Parameter estimates comparison of earnings functions in the PSID and CPS data, 1976–2007

Comparing earnings equations in the Panel Study of Income Dynamics (PSID) and the Current Population Survey, we find that the PSID considerably underestimates the returns to education during the 1992–2007 period. Non-random selection in the PSID sample appears to be the reason.     

Estimating the speed of adjustment of European banking efficiency under a quadratic loss function

This paper investigates the speed of adjustment of cost efficiency to equilibrium level in the European banking industry. Our analysis provides for the first time insights into the process of convergence across European banking markets as measured by the speed of adjustment of cost efficiency. In particular, we employ a quadratic loss function specification based on forward-looking rational expectations to model the underlying dynamics of efficiency scores in the banking industry of the EU-15 region over the period 1998–2005. Results show that there is considerable variation in the speed of adjustment across banking systems, while over time it appears that continuing efforts to advance financial integration have led to some improvement in the speed of adjustment to the long-run equilibrium.     

Strategic merger waves: A theory of musical chairs

This paper proposes an explanation of merger waves based on the interaction between competitive pressure and irreversibility of mergers in an uncertain environment. A set of acquirers compete over time for scarce targets. At each point in time, an acquirer can either postpone a takeover attempt or raid immediately. By postponing the takeover attempt, an acquirer may gain from more favorable future market conditions, but runs the risk of being preempted by rivals. First, a complete information model is considered and it is shown that the above tradeoff leads to a continuum of subgame perfect equilibria in monotone strategies that are strictly Pareto ranked. All these equilibria share the feature that all acquirers rush simultaneously in merger waves. The model is then extended to a dynamic global game by introducing slightly noisy private information about merger profitability. This game is shown to have a unique Markov perfect Bayesian equilibrium in monotone strategies and the timing of the merger wave can thus be predicted. Last, the comparative dynamics predictions of the model are related to stylized facts.     

Employment changes, the structure of adjustment costs, and plant size

In this paper, we analyze the pattern of employment adjustment using a rich panel of Norwegian plants. The data suggest that the frequency of episodes of zero net employment changes is inversely related to plant size. We develop and estimate a simple “q” model of labor demand, allowing for the presence of fixed, linear and quadratic components of adjustment costs. The econometric evidence supports the existence of purely fixed components, unrelated to plant size. As a result, the range of inaction is wider for smaller plants. The quadratic component of costs is also always important. In most specifications fixed costs are higher for employment contractions. The quadratic component is higher during employment contractions compared to expansions for small plants, while this is not true for larger plants.     

A microfoundation for increasing returns in human capital accumulation and the under-participation trap

This paper considers educational investment, wages and hours of market work in an imperfectly competitive labour market with heterogeneous workers and home production. It investigates the degree to which there might be both underemployment in the labour market and underinvestment in education. A central insight is that the ex post participation decision of workers endogeneously generates increasing marginal returns to education. Although equilibrium implies underinvestment in education, optimal policy is not to subsidise education. Instead it is to subsidise labour market participation which we argue might be efficiently targeted as state-provided childcare support.     

Advancing Loss Given Default Prediction Models: How the Quiet Have Quickened

We describe LossCalc™ version 2.0: the Moody's KMV model to predict loss given default (LGD), the equivalent of (1  −  recovery rate). LossCalc is a statistical model that applies multiple predictive factors at different information levels: collateral, instrument, firm, industry, country and the macroeconomy to predict LGD. We find that distance‐to‐default measures (from the Moody's KMV structural model of default likelihood) compiled at both the industry and firm levels are predictive of LGD. We find that recovery rates worldwide are predictable within a common statistical framework, which suggests that the estimation of economic firm value (which is then available to allocate to claimants according to each country's bankruptcy laws) is a dominant step in LGD determination. LossCalc is built on a global dataset of 3,026 recovery observations for loans, bonds and preferred stock from 1981 to 2004. This dataset includes 1,424 defaults of both public and private firms – both rated and unrated instruments – in all industries. We demonstrate out‐of‐sample and out‐of‐time LGD model validation. The model significantly improves on the use of historical recovery averages to predict LGD .