Sources of exchange rate fluctuations with Taylor rule fundamentals

This paper investigates the sources of exchange rate fluctuations when monetary policy follows a Taylor rule interest rate reaction function. We first present a simple dynamic exchange rate model with Taylor rule fundamentals which is triangular in the long-run impacts of shocks to the output market, the interest rate differential, and the Taylor rule. We then proceed to assess the relative importance of various shocks in exchange rate determination by estimating a structural VAR with long-run identification restrictions based on the triangular structure of the model. We find demand shocks to be less important than in earlier VAR studies, with both supply shocks and nominal shocks explaining a substantial part of real exchange rate fluctuations.     

Revisiting the interest rate–exchange rate nexus: a Markov-switching approach

In this paper the interest rate–exchange rate nexus and the effectiveness of an interest rate defense are investigated empirically. I present a reduced form evidence which characterizes the empirical relationship between interest rates and exchange rates. I use a Markov-switching specification of the nominal exchange rate with time-varying transition probabilities. Empirical evidence from six developing countries: Indonesia, South Korea, the Philippines, Thailand, Mexico, and Turkey indicates that raising nominal interest rates leads to a higher probability of switching to a crisis regime. Thus, the empirical results presented here may support the view that a high interest rate policy is unable to defend the exchange rate. Unlike other studies which consider linear models only, my findings are robust and consistent over different countries and crisis episodes (Asian 1997 crises, Mexico 1994 crisis, and Turkey 1994, 2001 crises). In order to explain the empirical findings, I construct a simple theoretical model by incorporating an interest rate rule in the model proposed by Jeanne and Rose (2002) [Jeanne, O., Rose, A.K., 2002. Noise trading and exchange rate regimes, Quarterly Journal of Economics. 117 (2) 537–569]. The model has multiple equilibria, and under plausible conditions, higher exchange rate volatility is associated with higher interest rates.     

Exchange rate management when sterilized interventions represent signals of monetary policy

The signalling channel of foreign exchange market interventions suggests that sterilized interventions represent signals of future monetary policy and thus affect exchange rate expectations. Within a two-country game-theoretic framework, which incorporates two novel factors—partial credibility and non-rational expectations—that reduce the exchange rate effects of intervention operations, I derive non-cooperative and cooperative policies of exchange rate management. To retain credibility in the future, sterilized interventions must be accomodated by corresponding subsequent changes in the money supply. Thus, interventions do not represent an instrument independent from general monetary policy. It is shown that the implied tradeoff between internal and external policy objectives makes the coordination of intervention operations advantageous, even in the case of conflicting exchange rate targets.     

Intersubjective economics, theory of production, and the transformation problem

The intersubjectivist theory of value (surveyed in Levy [1990, 1994a] and Fullbrook [1994c, Section 4]) is founded on Simone de Beauvoir's conception of reciprocal desire and emphasizes the role of conventions and intersubjectivity in market relations. It treats money and markets as social institutions and argues that a money economy is fundamentally different from a real one. The tool of intersubjective economics is to offer a system for analyzing standard economic phenomena from a vantage point outside the equilibrium paradigm. But paradoxically, while the intersubjectivists developed intersubjective analysis of the firm [Eymard-Duvernay, 1989; Levy, 1994b, 1995c; Biencourt et al., 1994], the original intersubjectivist theory of value to which they refer is conceived in an exchange economy. This paper's aim, then, is to explore and discuss points for reducing the lack of a theory of production in intersubjective and measurement economics. The author benefited from the useful thoughts of Richard Arena [1990] as well as from useful discussions and strong encouragements from Edward Fullbrook and Charles M. A. Clark. Finally, the author benefited from the useful discussions of conference participants, especially Manuel Garcia.     

China's Exchange Rate and International Adjustment in Wages, Prices and Interest Rates: Japan Deja Vu?

China's fixed its exchange rate at 8.28 yuan to the dollar from1994 to July 2005, and has only allowed for a small appreciationsince then. China's productivity growth has been very high relativeto most other countries: its trade surplus has been rising andit continues to accumulate large dollar exchange reserves. Manyobservers, including high officials in the US government, takethis as per se evidence that the renminbi is undervalued. Tobalance China's international competitiveness and reduce itstrade surplus, they want the renminbi to appreciate much more.This common presumption of renminbi undervaluation is wrong,and its appreciation need not reduce China's trade surplus butwould cause serious deflation in China. To show this, we considerinternational adjustment between China and the US from bothan asset market and a labor market perspective, and comparethis to Japan's unsuccessful appreciation of the yen from 1971to 1995. During a time of economic catch-up and rapid financialtransformation, fixing the exchange rate is the preferred wayof anchoring the domestic price level. (JEL codes: F15, F31,F33)     

TAYLOR RULE REACTION COEFFICIENTS AND REAL EXCHANGE RATE PERSISTENCE

Recent literature has established a link between the persistence of real exchange rates and the degree of inertia in Taylor rule monetary policy reactions functions. This paper provides a different view on this link by investigating how the size of Taylor rule reaction coefficients impacts the adjustment dynamics of the real exchange rate. Within a stylized sticky‐price open‐economy macro model, it is demonstrated that a stronger interest rate reaction to inflation in the Taylor rule raises the convergence speed of the real exchange rate. Conversely, raising the coefficient on the output gap or attending to the exchange rate in an open‐economy version of the Taylor rule slows down real exchange rate adjustment. In all cases, more rapid convergence comes at the cost of stronger initial real exchange rate misalignments in the wake of monetary policy shocks.     

An Empirical Examination of the Relationship Between Central Bank Intervention and Exchange Rate Volatility: Some Australian Evidence

Arguably, market stability is one of the primary reasons behind government intervention in the foreign exchange market. Whether or not the authorities achieve this goal is an empirical matter and testing of this issue is made difficult by the fact that government intervention and exchange rate volatility may be jointly determined. In this paper, the extent to which volatility drives intervention is considered using PROBIT analysis. The results suggest that while support for the hypothesis exists, volatility on its own does not to provide enough information to allow us to accurately forecast government intervention. A modified GARCH model is then tested which incorporates the impact of government intervention in the mean and conditional variance equation. The evidence presented suggest that the dynamics of market are different on the days where the central bank is active in the market.     

Entry cost, the Tobin tax, and noise trading in the foreign exchange market

Abstract .  Two types of policy have been proposed to eliminate noise trading in the foreign exchange market: increasing the entry cost or imposing a 'Tobin tax' type of transaction tax. In this paper, we endogenize entry decisions of both informed traders and noise traders and show that these policies may be ineffective in reducing exchange rate volatility. This is because these policies will discourage the entry of all traders, so they may not change the relative ratio of traders, or they may affect informed traders disproportionately more, which increases the relative ratio of noise traders and exchange rate volatility.     

Exchange rate puzzles: A tale of switching attractors

The rational expectations efficient market model of the exchange rate has failed empirically. In this paper, we develop a model of the exchange rate in which agents use simple forecasting rules. Based on an ex post evaluation of the relative profitability of these rules they decide whether to switch or not. In addition, transactions costs in the goods market are introduced. We show that this simple model creates great complexity in the market which is characterised by the fact that the exchange rate is disconnected from its fundamental most of the time. Finally we show that this model mimicks most of the empirical puzzles uncovered in the literature.     

通胀目标制与汇率目标制不能共存吗

基于汇率传递的风险溢价渠道，本文将我国利率调控通胀、外汇储备对冲干预汇率纳入新凯恩斯政策模型，构建双目标双工具政策分析框架，比较泰勒规则与双目标双工具规则下通胀目标与汇率目标共存的经济机制与效应。本文模拟显示：（1）双目标双工具政策框架下通胀目标与汇率目标能够共存，此时通过影响汇率风险溢价来盯住汇率不影响通胀；而单工具政策下两目标无法共存，此时降低国内资产的收益率盯住汇率会刺激居民的消费行为引起通胀。（2）国际资本冲击下，双目标双工具政策在固定汇率的同时能保证经济稳定；而当贸易条件恶化时，选择完全浮动汇率制度最优。央行政策损失分析进一步验证了以上结论。（3）随着金融市场化改革深入，外汇储备稳定汇率的有效性将下降，冲销成本会大幅提升。资本账户开放下，双目标双工具政策仍是央行抵御外部资本冲击的首选政策；但是汇率市场化后，通胀目标制与双目标双工具政策效果基本无差异。本文结论的启示是：面对国际资本，需必要的汇率管制；但是面对贸易冲击，可适度提升汇率弹性来减少冲击对产出和通胀的影响。     

External wealth, the trade balance, and the real exchange rate

We examine the link between the net foreign asset position, the trade balance and the real exchange rate. In particular, we decompose the impact of a country's net foreign asset position (‘external wealth’) on its long-run real exchange rate into two mechanisms: the relation between external wealth and the trade balance; and, holding fixed other determinants, a negative relation between the trade balance and the real exchange rate. We also provide additional evidence that the relative price of nontradables is an important channel linking the trade balance and the real exchange rate.     

Exchange rates and trade: How important is hysteresis in trade?

This paper looks at the responsiveness of a country's export supply to exchange rate changes and measures its quantitative importance by breaking down export adjustments between changes in output levels by existing exporters (intensive margin) and movements due to changes in the number of exporters (extensive margin). Using data on a representative sample of Spanish manufacturing firms, the paper finds sunk costs hysteresis in entry and exit to be an important factor in determining export market participation, but unrelated to exchange rate uncertainty. The sunk costs of entering the market appear to be much larger than the costs of exiting the market. Finally, although hysteresis exists, its effect on the responsiveness of aggregate trade volumes to exchange rate changes is quantitatively small. A 10% home currency depreciation results in an increases in export volume due to the increase in the number of exporting firms of only 1.4% of export volume.     

Non‐linearities,Business Cycles and Exchange Rates

This paper conjoins the disparate empirical literatures on exchange rate models and monetary policy models, with special reference to the importance of output, inflation gaps and exchange rate targets. It focuses in on the dollar/euro exchange rate, and the differential results arising from using alternative measures of the output gap for the US and for the Euro area. A comparison of ‘in‐sample’ prediction against alternative models of exchange rates is also conducted. In addition to predictive power, I also assess the various models' plausibility as economic explanations for exchange rate movements, based on the conformity of coefficient estimates with priors. Taylor rule fundamentals appear to do as well, or better, than other models at the 1‐year horizon.     

Do Exchange Rate Shocks Have Asymmetric Effects on Reserve Accumulation? Evidence from Emerging Markets*

It is generally argued that central banks in emerging market countries, motivated by a desire to defend export competitiveness, tend to intervene in foreign exchange markets to limit currency appreciations rather than depreciations. Using panel data from 13 emerging market countries for the period 1998:M1 to 2016:M12, we find that exchange rate shocks play an important role in determining the accumulation of international reserves. Moreover, we find evidence that central banks in emerging markets tend to follow a “leaning against the depreciation wind” policy, rather than the appreciation wind (i.e., we provide evidence of a “fear of depreciation”).     

Out‐of‐Sample Exchange Rate Forecasting and Macroeconomic Fundamentals: The Case of Japan

This study explores the respective out‐of‐sample exchange rate forecasting abilities of five macroeconomic fundamental models in comparison to a naïve random walk model for Japan during the post‐Bretton Woods era. To assess the influence of major economic changes, we estimate both linear and nonlinear models for all the macroeconomic fundamentals. Overall, most structural exchange rate models outperform a naïve random walk model in terms of forecasting accuracy in the short horizon. When the fundamentals are only linearly modelled, the forecasting ability of the Taylor rule is generally superior to other fundamental models. When the fundamentals are nonlinearly specified, the predictability of some other models rises dramatically to match that of the Taylor rule models in short and/or long horizons. Of importance, we determine that the yen/dollar exchange rate forecasting performance effectively improves in several fundamental models when influential economic changes are incorporated.     

Monetary Policy Regime Shifts and Uncovered Interest Parity Revisited: The Euro–US Dollar Exchange Rate

ABSTRACT

To explore possible sources of the well-documented uncovered interest parity (UIP) violation in the foreign exchange market, this paper scrutinizes structural changes in monetary reactions to inflationary pressure in the conventional approaches to nominal exchange rate and examines how this small but important change has an effect on the empirical implications of the UIP condition. In addition to some salient features found in the euro exchange rate, by introducing occasional monetary policy regime shifts into an otherwise standard open-economy dynamic general equilibrium model, we found some important findings that potentially help better understand exchange rate dynamics. During the entire sample period, 1999:M1–2014:M8, exchange rate disconnect puzzle still exists. However, sub-sample analysis suggests that relatively passive monetary reaction implying less frequent intervention by monetary authority tends to be more consistent with the UIP relation. Simulation results support the empirical regularities.     

A weak bargaining set for contract choice problems

In this paper, we consider the problem of choosing a set of multi-party contracts, where each coalition of agents has a non-empty finite set of feasible contracts to choose from. We call such problems, contract choice problems. The main result in this paper states that every contract choice problem has a non-empty weak bargaining set. The need for such a solution concept which is considerably weaker than the core arises, since it is well-known that even for very simple contract choice problems, the core may be empty. We also show by means of an example that an analog of the bargaining set due to Mas-Colell [Mas-Colell, A., 1989. An equivalence theorem for a bargaining set. Journal of Mathematical Economics 18, 129–139], as well as the natural analog of the bargaining set due to Aumann and Mashler [Aumann, R., Maschler, M., 1964. The bargaining set for cooperative games. In: Dresher, M., Shapley, L., Tucker, A. (Eds.), Advances in Game Theory. Princeton University Press, Princeton, NJ] may be empty for contract choice problems.     

汇率制度能影响外汇市场压力和央行干预吗

按照Stavarek（2007）的方法和标准,分别计算了2002年1月到2011年12月期间人民币对美元的外汇市场压力及中央银行干预指数。结果显示,人民币实行参考一篮子货币的汇率制度与盯住美元的汇率制度相比,不仅没有减轻外汇市场压力,反而加大了外汇干预压力。汇率制度不是影响外汇市场压力的决定因素,但不同的汇率制度却对我国央行外汇市场干预程度产生了较大的影响。在人民币实行参考一篮子货币的汇率制度下,央行干预程度明显降低,汇率决定的市场化程度相应提高。     

Exchanging market access at the outsiders' expense: the case of customs unions

Abstract.  Under a customs union, countries can exchange preferential market access by coordinating external tariffs to shift profits from excluded countries. I show that the exporting rents resulting from this coordination can offset trade diversion losses produced by the union, even if its members are relatively small in world markets. Such gains come, however, at the expense of excluded countries. I show that small countries can use customs unions also to foster multilateral cooperation, by increasing the incentives of excluded countries to support global free trade.     

Exchange rate differential and balance of payments under dual exchange markets

This paper develops a model of an economy that uses two exchange markets: an official market in which the exchange rate is determined by central bank intervention, and a free market in which the exchange rate is determined by market forces. The official market handles selected imports and exports, while the free market handles the remaining imports and exports, and capital transactions. The model is used to discuss the effects of various policies on the differential between the free and the official exchange rates and on the balance of payments.