Search frictions, market power, and long-run growth

This paper embeds product market search in an Ak growth model to study the effects of search frictions on market structure, capital accumulation, and long-run growth. The basic hypothesis is that search frictions, in giving rise to market power, result in higher prices and lower output levels. The falling demand for capital stemming from firms cutting back output then lowers the interest rate, dampening capital accumulation and slowing down growth. A decline in search frictions sets the process in reverse, eventually speeding up growth through the change in market structure. In the meantime, the stock market values of firms could fall.     

Complementarities in innovation policy

This paper develops a framework for testing discrete complementarities in innovation policy using European data on obstacles to innovation. We propose a discrete test of supermodularity in innovation policy leading to a number of inequality constraints. We apply our test to two types of innovation decisions: to innovate or not, and if so, by how much. We find that the evidence regarding the existence of complementarity in innovation policies depends on the phase of innovation that is targeted (getting firms innovative or increasing their innovation intensity) as well as on the particular pair of policies that is being considered. The two phases of the innovation process, i.e. the probability of becoming an innovator and the intensity of innovation, are subject to different constraints. Interestingly, there seems to be a need to adopt a package of policies to make firms innovate, while a more targeted choice among policies is necessary to make them more innovative.     

Experiencing change and the evolution of adaptive skills: Implications for economic growth

We distinguish learning in a static environment from that in a dynamic environment to show the existence of an important interaction between the development of new technologies and human capital accumulation. Because technological progress creates a more dynamic environment, it complements education in the production of human capital by enhancing adaptive skills. Higher levels of adaptability and human capital in turn determine the profitability of new inventions and the incentive to invest in new R&D. Differences in the history of technological progress produce different levels of adaptability and our results suggest why countries that have comparable levels of education and per capita incomes may differ significantly in their growth performance.     

Anti-competitive conduct, in-house R&D, and growth

Incumbent firms have two basic possibilities to improve their competitive position in the product market: Investment in R&D and the creation of entry barriers to the disadvantage of potential rivals, e.g. through lobbying activities, campaign contributions, bribes or the adoption of incompatible technologies. This paper proposes a simple oligopoly model which raises the possibility that such anti-competitive conduct and R&D investment are complementary activities for incumbents. Consequently, an institutional framework or technological possibilities which encourage anti-competitive conduct, although impeding entry of potential rivals and accentuating standard oligopoly distortions, may foster R&D-based growth and welfare. However, this outcome is less likely if entrants exert technological spillover effects, e.g. through foreign direct investment. Stronger protection of intellectual property rights, although triggering anti-competitive conduct and thereby impeding market entry as well, is more likely to foster economic growth.     

Innovation,R&D Spillovers,and the Variety and Concentration of the Local Industry Structure*

This paper presents a Cournot oligopoly model with R&D spillovers both within and across industries. The aim is to provide a theoretical foundation for the main hypotheses regarding the effect of the local industry structure on innovation and output. Depending on the spillover rates and the degree of product differentiation between the industries, the firms respond differently to changes in variety and concentration, which can explain the mixed empirical results. Furthermore, innovation and output can react in opposite ways, which makes the choice of the performance measure critical.     

Resource abundance, growth and welfare: A Schumpeterian perspective

This paper takes a new look at the long-run implications of resource abundance. It develops a Schumpeterian model of endogenous growth that incorporates an upstream resource-intensive sector and yields an analytical solution for the transition path. It then derives conditions under which, as the economy's endowment of a natural resource rises, (i) growth accelerates and welfare rises, (ii) growth decelerates but welfare rises nevertheless, and (iii) growth decelerates and welfare falls. Which of these scenarios prevails depends on the response of the natural resource price to an increase in the resource endowment. The price response determines the change in income earned by the owners of the resource (the households) and thereby the change in their expenditure on manufacturing goods. Since manufacturing is the economy's innovative sector, this income-to-expenditure effect links resource abundance to the size of the market for manufacturing goods and drives how re-source abundance affects incentives to undertake innovative activity.     

Corporate taxes, growth and welfare in a Schumpeterian economy

I take a new look at the long-run implications of taxation through the lens of modern Schumpeterian growth theory. I focus on the latest vintage of models that sterilize the scale effect through a process of product proliferation that fragments the aggregate market into submarkets whose size does not increase with the size of the workforce. I show that the following interventions raise welfare: (a) granting full expensibility of R&D to incorporated firms; (b) eliminating the corporate income tax and/or the capital gains tax; (c) reducing taxes on labor and/or consumption. What makes these results remarkable is that in all three cases the endogenous increase in the tax on dividends necessary to balance the budget has a positive effect on growth. A general implication of my analysis is that corporate taxation plays a special role in Schumpeterian economies and provides novel insights on how to design welfare-enhancing tax reforms.     

Institutions and concentration

In a new dataset of 1.3 million firms from over 100 countries, I establish a number of regularities in cross-country differences in economic concentration. Concentration of sales and employment is substantially higher in smaller countries and in less-developed countries; these two factors alone explain roughly half the cross-country variation in concentration. Nevertheless, a number of institutional factors offer additional explanatory power for concentration. Concentration is higher in countries with higher entry costs for new firms, in countries with weaker antitrust policy, in countries with less financial development, in countries with weaker rule of law, and in countries with more burdensome regulation. Weak institutions are associated with higher concentration especially in industries that do not have naturally high levels of concentration. In addition, the relationships between institutions and concentration are more pronounced in nontradable and investment-intensive industries, suggesting that natural barriers to competition facilitate the monopolization of sectors especially when institutions are weak.     

GROWTH,INTER‐INDUSTRY AND INTRA‐INDUSTRY COMPETITION AND WELFARE*

In this paper we introduce strategic interaction between firms in an R&D growth model which captures both the intra‐industry competition between firms operating within an industry and the inter‐industry competition between firms in different industries. We show that the more substitutable the goods produced within each industry (across industries) are, that is, the more intense the intra‐industry (inter‐industry) competition, the higher is the growth rate. In the comparison between social optimum and a decentralized economy, it is shown that the market outcome is characterized by inefficiently high entry of firms within each industry and insufficient productivity growth.     

Stages of diversification in a neoclassical world

Recent research has documented a U-shaped industrial concentration curve over an economy’s development path. How far can neoclassical trade theory take us in explaining this pattern? We estimate the production side of the Heckscher–Ohlin model using industry data on 44 developed and developing countries for the period 1976–2000. Decomposing the implied changes in industrial concentration over time shows that at least one third of these changes seems to be explained by a Rybczynski effect. This result suggests that capital accumulation led poor countries to diversify their industrial production, while rich countries made their production more concentrated in highly capital-intensive industries.     

Population heterogeneity and growth

I investigate the robustness of the link between growth and heterogeneity in a population along ethnic, linguistic, religious, and socio-economic class lines using cross-country data covering the period 1960–92 and 72 countries. In addition to 21 distinct explanatory variables extensively used in the empirical growth literature, I consider several fragmentation and polarization indices capturing the heterogeneity in a population to deal with measurement uncertainty, and utilize Bayesian Model Averaging techniques to address uncertainty issues regarding model specification. My results indicate that while substantial data evidence favors the inclusion of population heterogeneity as a theory when proxied by fragmentation indices, it does not support the inclusion of this theory when proxied by polarization indices. Furthermore, the religious fragmentation index has the strongest evidence in favor of its inclusion as opposed to ethnic and linguistic fragmentation indices and income inequality.     

Knowledge appropriability, firm size, and growth

Empirical evidence shows that the number of patents per R&D dollar declines with firm size. In this paper, we propose a Schumpeterian growth model that accounts for this evidence. We analyze an economy with firms that engage in cost-reducing innovation resulting from the accumulation of both codified and tacit knowledge: the former occurs through the purchase of patents, while the latter is the result of R&D conducted in-house by firms. We study the relation between knowledge appropriability and market structure, and we show that a shift from patents to in-house research occurs as firm size gets larger. Since innovation statistics concentrate mainly on patents, this process of research reallocation results into an under-estimation of innovative activity and is responsible for the declining ratio of patents to R&D expenditure. Survey data on UK-based firms provide support to our results.     

The struggle to survive in the R&D sector: Implications for innovation and growth

By allowing for investment activities by research and development (R&D) firms to prevent product obsolescence, we show that if legal patent protection is too strong, a higher R&D subsidy rate delivers insufficient investments for survival in the R&D sector, depressing innovation and growth in the long run.     

Growth miracles and failures in a Markov switching classification model of growth

In this paper economic growth is interpreted as a sequence of transitions between distinct growth regimes that countries visit with different frequencies. Countries featuring similar growth dynamics are endogenously grouped into three different clusters. The first cluster comprises successful countries that are characterized by lengthy periods of high or very high growth. Moderately successful countries in the second cluster experience both periods of reasonable growth and periods of stagnation, whereas failing countries in the third cluster suffer from highly volatile growth rates with frequent episodes of crisis. Successful countries are characterized by better initial conditions, policies and institutions compared to the other countries. Neither initial conditions nor institutions distinguish moderately successful from failing countries; what makes them different is policy in the form of investments into infrastructure and human capital, trade liberalization and limited policy volatility.     

Catching up to the technology frontier: the dichotomy between innovation and imitation

Abstract Using data for 55 developing and developed countries, this research examines the roles of technology transfer, research intensity, educational attainment, and the ability to absorb foreign technology in explaining cross‐country differences in productivity growth. The results show that innovation is an important factor for growth in OECD countries, whereas growth in developing countries is driven by imitation. Furthermore, the interaction between educational attainment and the distance to the frontier is a significant determinant of growth in the overall sample.     

Entry and growth in a perfectly competitive vintage model

A perfectly competitive vintage-knowledge model of Schumpeterian growth is introduced to study the relation between growth, technology-lifetime, entry, and productivity-dispersion. The incentive to innovate is generated by the productivity-dispersion (latent in traditional vintage models) between new and old plants, rather than by monopoly rents. The model has a unique steady-state REE with endogenous growth. The endogenous extent of entry constitutes a buffer, dampening the effect of research-efficiency and completely neutralizing the effect of population size or population growth rates on per-capita income levels and growth rates. Variations of research-efficiency lead to a negative relation between growth and vintage-lifetime and a non-monotonic relation between growth and productivity-dispersion.     

International R&D spillovers and institutions

The empirical analysis in “International R&D Spillovers” [Coe, D., Helpman, E., 1995. International R&D Spillovers. European Economic Review, 39, 859-887] is first revisited on an expanded data set that we have constructed for the purpose of this study. The new estimates confirm the key results reported in Coe and Helpman about the impact of domestic and foreign R&D capital stocks on TFP. In addition, we show that domestic and foreign R&D capital stocks have measurable impacts on TFP even after controlling for the impact of human capital. Furthermore, we extend the analysis to include institutional variables. Our results suggest that institutional differences are important determinants of TFP and that they impact the degree of R&D spillovers. Countries where the ease of doing business and the quality of tertiary education systems are relatively high tend to benefit more from their own R&D efforts, from international R&D spillovers, and from human capital formation. Strong patent protection is associated with higher levels of total factor productivity, higher returns to domestic R&D, and larger international R&D spillovers. Finally, countries whose legal systems are based on French and, to a lesser extent, Scandinavian law benefit less from their own and foreign R&D capital than countries whose legal origins are based on English or German law.     

Inequality convergence revisited: Evidence from stationarity panel tests with breaks and cross correlation

This paper empirically examines whether there exists stochastic convergence of income inequality among 48 contiguous states within the US over the 1916–2005 period. For that purpose, we employ the recently developed panel stationarity test of Carrion-i-Silvestre, Del Barrio-Castro and López-Bazo (2005), which assumes a highly flexible trend function by incorporating an unknown number of structural breaks. In addition, the issues of cross-sectional dependence as well as control for finite-sample bias are accommodated through bootstrap methods. Overall, for the US case, our analysis provides strong evidence in support of the hypothesis of inter-state inequality convergence. Moreover, the results are robust to alternative inequality measures applied, different notions of stochastic convergence defined, and alternative panel stationary test employed.     

An Empirical Analysis of the Effect of Aid on Growth

The fact that so many countries register low per capita income after receiving enormous amounts of foreign aid questions its effectiveness as a tool for economic growth and consequently as an instrument of poverty alleviation. The impact of foreign aid on economic growth is ultimately an empirical question and one that will be addressed in this paper. The paper uses the most recent data and incorporates most of the salient features of the new growth literature to test the effect of aid on economic growth. Three important conclusions emerged from the empirical analysis of the paper. First, it shows that the effect of aid on growth is nonlinear. The nonlinearity of the relationship indicates a threshold for foreign aid beyond which more aid is detrimental to economic growth. Second, the empirical results of this paper support Burnside and Dollars findings that a good policy environment is important for aid to work effectively. Aid effectiveness can only be sustained in an environment of good economic policy. Finally, using etholinguistic fractionalization as an instrument, the empirical results of the paper indicate that the relationship between AID/GDP and economic growth is sequential. More and more aid leads to lower economic growth.The authors would like to thank W. Mark Crain, G. Chris Rodrigo, Willem Thorbecke, an anonymous referee, and the participants of the 57th International Atlantic Economic Conference held in Lisbon, March 10–14, 2004. This paper is presented to the conference under a different title. Professor Ali would also like to thank the Research Council of Niagara University for their financial help.     

The growth–inequality association: Government ideology matters

This note suggests that the association between income inequality and economic growth rates might arguably depend on the political ideology of incumbent governments. Estimates indicate that under leftwing governments, inequality is negatively associated with growth while the association is positive under rightwing governments. This may provide a qualification to recent studies of inequality.