State-of-the-art of Russia’s heat supply systems

The paper overviews the contemporary state of Russia’s heat supply systems and fuel consumption within its centralized part, the structure of heat consumption by economic sectors and types of industrial consumers. As shown, the centralized heat supply systems, providing the major part of country’s economy with low temperature heat, have heat losses and accident rate at a critical level. The state of decentralized heat supply systems of low rise buildings is not covered by national statistics at all. A second paper on the prospects and development of Russia’s heat supply systems will be published in a subsequent issue.     

东日本大地震对日本及中国产业发展的影响

东日本大地震已经过去一年,地震使长期停滞的日本经济雪上加霜,并对日本产业发展给与沉重打击。加上因地震及核泄露而引起的电力供给困难,日本企业面临"六重苦"(少子高龄化、法人税率、环境规制、日元升值、FTA、电力供给)的困境。日本产业今后的发展趋势和方向会对中国的产业发展产生影响,中国与日本的产业经济合作也值得期待。     

Development prospects for the heating supply in Russia

The main factors that influence the consumption of heat energy in the centralized heating supply systems in the long term are discussed in this article. Consumption of heat energy by the population for space heating and hot water will be the most significant component of the demand. The possible extents of heat consumption and heat saving in the buildings of cities are estimated on the basis of an analysis of the advanced development of housing construction and the quality of dwelling units. It is shown that it is necessary to increase the annual creation of new pipeline networks to decrease accidents and heat losses. Several scenarios for the development of centralized heat supply systems within the limits of the long-term forecast of the FEC (Fuel and Energy Complex) development of the country until 2030 are discussed. It is shown that major changes in the structure of heat production can occur as limits increase for carbon dioxide emissions in centralized heat supply systems.     

Key Tasks and Development Prospects for the Russian Economy in the Context of Kondratiev’s Long Cycles

The rationale behind the key tasks in the development of Russia’s fuel and energy complex, agroindustrial complex, defense industry, and machinery industry and construction complexes has been presented using the apparatus of Kondratiev’s long cycles, i.e., upward and downward waves in the production and export of oil, grain, arms, cars, etc. as well as in the supply of new housing. The trends have been analyzed using Rosstat data for a 100-year period. The analysis has shown how the past rates of development and proportions affect the present and future growth of Russia’s economy. Some of the main tasks have been formulated for the future development of Russia’s economy until 2030. The processes of import substitution and the replacement of oil exports with grain, arms, and cars have been discussed. The issue of the social and economic significance of solving the housing problem in Russia has been raised.     

高端物流:现代物流业发展的新热点

高端物流是现代物流管理向供应链管理转变过程中产生的新物流形态,它是处于供应链高端的物流活动。全球经济一体化环境下的全球供应链体系的建设是高端物流发展的背景,高端物流远远超越了传统物流的含义和功能,高端物流创新了多种物流形态。     

“十四五”时期西藏经济高质量发展路径探究

文章从新时代西藏经济宏观运行状况入手,从破解西藏社会矛盾、适应经济新常态、建设现代化经济体系等角度分析了西藏推进经济高质量发展的重要意义,提出了牢固树立新发展理念、深化供给侧结构性改革、推动脱贫攻坚与乡村振兴有效衔接、加大人才要素供给和加强基础设施建设、形成生态保护与民生改善循环机制等对策建议。     

UNDERDEVELOPMENT AND INDUSTRIALISATION IN PRE‐WAR THAILAND

Thailand's economy before 1940 was marked by remarkably low long‐term real economic growth, unusually high levels of the population living in rural areas, and limited industrialisation and urbanisation. This paper examines reasons for the lack of diversification, looking in particular at industrial development. We emphasise Thailand's role in the world economy, sources of labour supply, and the concentration of industry in the capital Bangkok. The impact of the world depression of the 1930s on the Thai economy was only moderate, which obviated the need for state policies that might have prompted significant economic change.     

“湾区经济”与东亚湾区城市经济合作——“上东首”自贸区的构建

中国经济的发展,在不同的阶段体现出不同的区域布局特征,区域布局的优化与升级推动着中国经济的发展。目前,中国的区域布局正在进行新一轮的优化与升级,由内陆、流域、"三角"的布局向境外、海洋、"湾区"延伸,即由珠三角、长三角、京津冀向粤港澳、沪宁杭、黄渤海三个大湾区延伸——中国的区域布局进入"湾区时代"。而不同的区域布局又与不同形式的开放联系在一起。粤港澳大湾区的开放延伸到境外——港澳,而沪宁杭、黄渤海两大湾区则应根据其自身的区位和地缘优势推动形成新的开放格局。经济发展提出了新的深度国际合作的需要,在新近签署的RCEP协定基础上推出RCEP+中日韩(1+3),推进中日韩自由贸易区协定签署,同时,构建上(海)东(京)首(尔)"金三角"城市自由贸易区,再将整个沪宁杭、黄渤海城市群纳入整个东亚湾区开放体系,作为"东亚合作的战略承载区和先行区",将会形成亚太地区以至整个世界经济新的增长极,并对世界的产业链和供应链产生深刻影响,有助于带动世界经济走出低迷状态。     

中俄石油合作新态势分析

1993年以来我国成为石油净进口国,而且进口额呈现逐年上升的态势。随着中国经济的快速发展,我国石油供需矛盾日益突出。俄罗斯是我国实现＂走出去＂石油战略的首选国家。本文分析了中俄石油合作的优势和障碍,并给出了相应的解决对策：政府重视,达成一揽予协议,深化互信,谋求合作共赢等。     

What can be learned from China’s success?

Since 1978, China has experienced the most rapid economic growth of any country in world history, and the most rapid growth in living standards of any major economy. Following the latest international financial crisis, China outperformed any other major economy – from the second quarter of 2007 to the second quarter of 2014, China’s economy grew by 78% and the USA by 8%. In a single generation, China has gone from a ‘low income economy’ to the verge of achieving ‘high income’ status by World Bank criteria. Achieving this would double the population living in ‘high income’ economies globally. This extremely rapid development is sometimes explained in terms of unique ‘Chinese characteristics’, but research over the last 30 years suggests it is rooted in universal economic processes. While the combination of global forces producing economic growth is unique in China and produces unique ‘Chinese characteristics’, they can operate throughout the world economy. If other developing economies could achieve the scale of China’s economic success, global problems of poverty and its consequences would be solved. China’s policy response to the international financial crisis was far more effective than that of other major economies. This paper examines the chief strategic lessons to be drawn from China’s success.     

Heidegger’s ‘potentiality-for-being’: Towards adequate economic development in Nigeria†

Even though Nigeria no longer remains so, in 2014 the country was declared ‘Africa’s biggest economy’ on the basis of its gross domestic product (GDP). It is a reality that many Nigerians still suffer deprivation and abject poverty. I argue that, as opposed to using GDP as a sole measure, multiple determinants need to be considered in order to convincingly validate the claim that Nigeria is Africa’s biggest economy because it was largely based on measurable economic output rather than the well-being of the populace. Using Martin Heidegger’s philosophy to question the structures in Nigeria which undermine ‘potentiality-for-being’, I show how Heidegger’s philosophy proffers possible solutions on how best to actualise proper potentiality-for-being. I also illustrate how the GDP of Nigeria is largely based on population and not on economic well-being. Lastly, refuting the use of GDP as the only determinant for economic progress, I propose the Heideggerian potentiality-for-being as a complementary determinant.     

The global faces of China’s incomplete reforms: a perspective from China’s new intellectual property regime

ABSTRACT

The paper probes into an antithetical aspect of China’s economic reforms in the global context by focusing on the recent developments of China’s intellectual property regime. By analyzing this cutting-edge legal system, it highlights China’s political divergence against its economic convergence in its decade-long reforms, in particular, its state-oriented innovation system as against the world’s neo-liberal economic order. The last decade witnessed China’s preeminent transformation from a passive follower to a proactive advocator of IP standards. However, certain entrenched limits characterizing China’s state-oriented economy and cultural systems such as information blockade and coercive technology transfer serve as catalysts that are apt to provoke acrimonious confrontation between China and major economies. In this sense, China’s incomplete reforms have taken on a new form: as China’s influence on the global economy grows, conflicts of diverse national priorities become more palpable than simple-minded economic cooperation.     

DSGE模型框架下我国货币政策规则的比较分析

货币政策规则是中央银行为了保持通货膨胀和产出稳定并使经济更快发展所使用的货币政策的指导原则。目前,通行于各个国家的货币政策规则主要有利率规则和货币供应量规则。过去一段时间以来,西方发达国家都已逐渐从货币供应量规则过渡到利率规则,而在我国不管是应用方面还是理论研究方面,对于哪一个货币政策规则更适合我国始终都还没有定论。因此,本文试图在DSGE模型的框架下,对我国的货币政策规则进行比较分析。结果得出,相比于货币供应量规则,利率规则下:(1)货币政策更有效;(2)技术冲击所引起的通货膨胀和产出波动更小;(3)技术冲击对通货膨胀和产出的影响更短暂。因此,研究得出,我国更适合使用利率的货币政策规则。     

城镇化演进的内在逻辑--基于产业结构变迁及土地流转角度

中国经济正处于转型期,以扩大内需来实现经济平稳增长是学术界、政府一致的呼声。城镇化是提升内需水平和结构的重要手段,也是中国目前经济改革的方向和重点。文章通过对30年来中国城镇化增长率,产业结构变迁,土地流转等数据分别建立模型进行实证分析。认为城镇化自身有内在的演进逻辑,即在产业结构变迁过程中城市用地的扩大和城镇人口的增加。最后提出政策建议,调整结构应优先于单纯产值增长,优化产业结构,优先发展第三产业,出台配套土地政策,盘活土地资源,沿着城镇化自身的逻辑来推动中国城镇化建设。     

高房价及其对中国经济的影响研究

本文分析了中国当前房价不断走高的原因,特别强调了超宽松的货币政策、房产市场供需失衡、通胀预期、以及土地财政政策四个方面。房价不断走高给中国经济带来很大的负面影响,最后提出了相应的政策建议。     

A cluster-based strategy for Russia’s innovative development

This paper summarizes Russia’s experience in the use of the cluster approach to solving modernization and innovative development problems in the country’s economy. Our main attention is focused on analyzing the formed approaches, programs, and regulatory legal acts adopted on clustering at the federal and regional levels. We have also analyzed the positive experience accumulated by individual constituents of the Russian Federation. The paper shows the key role of infrastructural systems of intellectual and financial capital in supporting a cluster’s innovative orientation.     

The long march of history: Farm wages,population, and economic growth,England 1209–18691

The article forms three series for English farm workers from 1209–1869: nominal day wages, the implied marginal product of a day of farm labour, and the purchasing power of a day’s wage in terms of farm workers’ consumption. These series suggest that labour productivity in English agriculture was already high in the middle ages. Furthermore, they fit well with one method of estimating medieval population that suggests a peak English population c.1300 of nearly 6 million. Lastly, they imply that both agricultural technology and the general efficiency of the economy were static from 1250 till 1600. Economic changes were in these years entirely a product of demographic shifts. From 1600 to 1800, technological advance in agriculture provided an alternative source of dynamism in the English economy.     

产业空洞化:野田政权面对的经济困局

"3·11"大地震之后,日本国内经济产业环境发生了重大变化:巨大震灾不仅使日本经济遭受重创,而且,还带来了供应链断裂、福岛核危机以及因核电停运而导致的电力紧张。这些新的问题又与内需不足、财政失衡、增长低迷等日本经济长期未能解决的"沉疴"交织在一起,导致日本国内经济产业环境急剧恶化。此外,严峻的全球经济形势更让日本经济雪上加霜:欧债危机、美国经济复苏乏力、新兴经济体增长减速,危机四伏的全球经济环境导致日元不断升值。在上述三重压力的打击之下,是否"离开日本",已经成为日本企业战略重构的关键,所以,日本政府正在面临史无前例的产业空洞化困局。     

浅析湘西民间融资现状

民间融资是一种基于民间信用关系的资金供求往来,是一种游离于国家金融体系之外的融资方式。随着我国国民经济的快速发展,湘西民间融资日益活跃,近年来衍生出一系列社会问题。本文从湘西民间融资形成的背景特点,来分析民间融资活跃的原因,对民间融资作了客观分析,并提出规范民间融资发展的对策建议,希望能对促进湘西地区的经济发展提供有利参考。     

Macroeconomic implications of population aging: Evidence from Japan

Population aging is an important feature of Japan’s economy, which since 2006 has become a super-aged society. Changes in the age distribution of the population have important macroeconomic implications. Using annual data for 1960–2015, this study tests whether population age shares have long run influences on domestic saving, domestic investment, real GDP, inflation, the fiscal balance, and the current account balance. Cointegration is found between each macroeconomic variable and the demographic variables, which is a key finding of the analysis. The main empirical findings from the long-run cointegrating equations are that the effects of demographic change on the macroeconomic variables are statistically significant and quite strong. Alternative variants of the United Nation’s population projections provide further evidence of the importance of the demographic changes for Japan’s macroeconomic future. This study finds that future trends of key macroeconomic variables are not monotonic, but rather that long swings in the demographic factors produce a mixture of moderate growth periods and episodes of GDP stagnation.