Spatial agglomeration and endogenous growth

This paper constructs a dynamic general equilibrium model with spatial interactions in which a human capital externality is the centripetal force towards agglomeration. The resource cost of transportation is, on the other hand, the main centrifugal force, preventing a city from growing unboundedly. A central feature of our analysis is the dynamic interaction between (perpetual) economic growth and (bounded) city growth. We examine the socially optimal and the decentralized growth rates as well as city sizes. In the decentralized environment, individuals under-invest, whereas cities are under-populated. We show how public policies may enable a decentralized city to attain the socially optimal allocation.     

Risk aversion in a model of endogenous growth

Despite the evidence on incomplete financial markets and substantial risk being borne by innovators, current models of growth through creative destruction predominantly model innovators’ as risk neutral. Risk aversion is expected to reduce the incentive to innovate and we might fear that without insurance innovation completely disappears in the long run. The present paper introduces risk averse agents into an occupational choice model of endogenous growth in which insurance against failure to innovate is not available. We derive a clear negative relationship between the level of risk aversion and long run growth. Surprisingly, we show that in an equilibrium there exists a cut-off value of risk aversion below which the growth rate of the mass of innovators tends to a strictly positive constant. In this case, innovation persists on the long run and consumption per capita grows at a strictly positive rate. On the other hand, for levels of risk aversion above the cut-off value, the economy eventually stagnates.     

Stock prices and monetary policy shocks: A general equilibrium approach

Empirical literature documents that unexpected changes in the nominal interest rates have a significant effect on real stock prices: a 100-basis point increase in the nominal interest rate is associated with an immediate decrease in broad real stock indices that may range from 2.2 to 9%, followed by a gradual decay as real stock prices revert towards their long-run expected value. We assess the ability of a general equilibrium New Keynesian asset-pricing model to account for these facts. We consider a production economy with elastic labor supply, staggered price and wage setting, as well as time-varying risk aversion through habit formation. We find that the model predicts a stock market response to policy shocks that matches empirical estimates, both qualitatively and quantitatively. Our findings are robust to a range of variations and parametrizations of the model.     

Incremental trade policy and endogenous growth:: A q-theory approach

Most trade-and-growth studies focus on the growth effects of autarky-to-free-trade changes, rather than those of incremental liberalisations. This paper characterizes how the strength and sign of openness-and-growth links depend upon the nature and level of trade barriers. For most types of trade barriers, we find that liberalisation raises or lowers growth depending upon the initial level of the barrier. This suggests empirical studies that pool data from high and low protection nations are mis-specified, and that policy lessons based on autarky-to-free-trade results are of limited use to policymakers.     

Abatement R&D,market imperfections,and environmental policy in an endogenous growth model

We develop an endogenous growth model featuring environmental externalities, abatement R&D, and market imperfections. We compare the economic performances under three distinct regimes that encompass public abatement, private abatement without tax recycling, and private abatement with tax recycling. It is found that the benefit arising from private abatement will be larger if the degree of the firms’ monopoly power is greater. With a reasonably high degree of monopoly power, a mixed abatement policy by which the government recycles environmental tax revenues to subsidize the private abatement R&D is a plausible way of reaching the highest growth rate and welfare.     

A dynamic CAPM with supply effect: Theory and empirical results

Breeden [Breeden, D. T. (1979). An intertemporal asset pricing model with stochastic consumption and investment opportunities. Journal of Financial Economics 7, 265–196] and Grinols [Grinols, E. L. (1984). Production and risk leveling in the intertemporal capital asset pricing model. The Journal of Finance 39, 5, 1571–1595] and Cox et al. [Cox, J. C., Ingersoll, J. E., Jr., & Ross, S. A. (1985). An intertemporal general equilibrium model of asset prices. Econometrica 53, 363–384] have described the importance of supply side for the capital asset pricing. Black [Black, S. W. (1976). Rational response to shocks in a dynamic model of capital asset pricing. American Economic Review 66, 767–779] derives a dynamic, multiperiod CAPM, integrating endogenous demand and supply. However, Black's theoretically elegant model has never been empirically tested for its implications in dynamic asset pricing. We first theoretically extend Black's CAPM. Then we use price, dividend per share and earnings per share to test the existence of supply effect with U.S. equity data. We find the supply effect is important in U.S. domestic stock markets. This finding holds as we break the companies listed in the S&P 500 into ten portfolios by different level of payout ratio. It also holds consistently if we use individual stock data.     

Delegating optimal monetary policy inertia

In a forward-looking business cycle model, central banks can achieve the (timeless)optimal commitment equilibrium even in the absence of a commitment technology, if they are delegated with an objective function that is different from the societal one. The paper develops a general linear-quadratic method to solve for the optimal delegation parameters that generate the optimal amount of inertia in a Markov-perfect equilibrium, and studies the optimal design of some policy regimes that are nested within this framework: the (squared) optimal targeting rule; inflation, output-gap growth and nominal income growth targeting; and inflation and output-gap contracts.     

Assessing optimal credit growth for an emerging banking system

The paper sets forth a novel way to estimate the optimal level of credit growth for an emerging banking system. Contrary to the traditional credit-to-GDP gap indicator, credit growth is considered to be optimal when it does not accelerate credit risk measured by loan loss provisions. We provide empirical support for modelling the provision charge ratio dynamic by the quadratic function of the credit growth deviation from its optimal level. The operational framework consists of a simplified financial satellite with two equations representing credit growth and change in the provision charge ratio. Our empirical results show that a 3 percent (±1 pp margin) quarterly increase in credit to the private sector is, in nominal terms, optimal for financial stability and sustainable growth in Romania.     

Stochastic optimal growth with risky labor supply

Production takes time, and labor supply and profit maximization decisions that relate to current production are typically made before all shocks affecting that production have been realized. In this paper we re-examine the problem of stochastic optimal growth with aggregate risk where the timing of the model conforms to this information structure. We provide a set of conditions under which the economy has a unique, nontrivial and stable stationary distribution. In addition, we verify key optimality properties in the presence of unbounded shocks and rewards, and provide the sample path laws necessary for consistent estimation and simulation.     

Fiscal policy,debt constraint and expectations-driven volatility

Imposing some constraints on public debt is often justified regarding sustainability and stability issues. This is especially the case when the ratio of public debt over GDP is restricted to be constant. Using a Ramsey model, we show that such a constraint can however be a fundamental source of indeterminacy, and therefore, of expectations-driven fluctuations. Indeed, through the intertemporal budget constraint of the government, income taxation negatively depends on future debt, i.e. on the expected level of production. This mechanism ensures that expectations on the future tax rate may be self-fulfilling. We show that this is promoted by a larger ratio of debt over GDP.     

Risk aversion and the elasticity of substitution in general dynamic portfolio theory: Consistent planning by forward looking, expected utility maximizing investors

Using the measure of risk aversion suggested by Kihlstrom and Mirman [Kihlstrom, R., Mirman, L., 1974. Risk aversion with many commodities. Journal of Economic Theory 8, 361–388; Kihlstrom, R., Mirman, L., 1981. Constant, increasing and decreasing risk aversion with many commodities. Review of Economic Studies 48, 271–280], we propose a dynamic consumption-savings–portfolio choice model in which the consumer-investor maximizes the expected value of a non-additively separable utility function of current and future consumption. Preferences for consumption streams are CES and the elasticity of substitution can be chosen independently of the risk aversion measure. The additively separable case is a special case. Because choices are not dynamically consistent, we follow the “consistent planning” approach of Strotz [Strotz, R., 1956. Myopia and inconsistency in dynamic utility maximization. Review of Economic Studies 23, 165–180] and also interpret our analysis from the game theoretic perspective taken by Peleg and Yaari [Peleg, B., Yaari, M., 1973. On the existence of a consistent course of action when tastes are changing. Review of Economic Studies 40, 391–401]. The equilibrium of the Lucas asset pricing model with i.i.d. consumption growth is obtained and the equity premium is shown to depend on the elasticity of substitution as well as the risk aversion measure. The nature of the dependence is examined. Our results are contrasted with those of the non-expected utility recursive approach of Epstein–Zin and Weil.     

Equity premium prediction and optimal portfolio decision with Bagging

We propose using the statistical method of Bagging to forecast the equity premium out-of-sample for multivariate regression models. Bagging allows for the flexible and efficient extraction of valuable informational content from a large set of predictors, leading to statistically and economically significant gains relative to not only the historical mean, but also other soft-threshold methods such as forecast combinations and shrinkage estimators in our empirical results. Furthermore, we find that the source of economic gains for Bagging primarily comes from the fact that it encourages the investor to actively manage portfolio by flexibly utilizing short selling or leveraging to better time the market following correctly prognosticated trends. However, other strategies such as forecast combinations keep the equity shares nearly fixed regardless of the predicted market prospect.     

On the closed-form solution of an endogenous growth model with anticipated consumption

This paper derives a closed-form solution of the AK endogenous growth model with logarithmic preferences and anticipated future consumption which enters additively into effective consumption. We get an explicit representation of the time paths of the economic variables in level by resorting to Gaussian Hypergeometric functions. We compare the model with anticipated future consumption to the model with habit formation. The maximum utility attainable in the model with anticipation is shown to be higher than the one attainable in the model with habits. Using the derived explicit expressions, we perform some comparative-dynamics and -statics analyses with respect to relevant parameters. Numerical simulations complement the theoretical results. Thus, this work provides further support to the usefulness of especial functions in the study of economic dynamics.     

Belief-driven growth slowdowns and zero-bounded risk-free rate

The literature presents mounting evidence that global long-run growth has been declining since the recession of 2008. Thus, to explore possible reasons for the growth slowdown and its risk-free rate and risk premium implications, this study constructs an endogenous growth model to examine the US economy before the 2008 recession and during the subsequent recovery period. The model features technological externalities that imply multiple perfect foresight balanced growth paths. In this setup, a change in agents’ beliefs may trigger persistent slumps, low interest rates, and elevated risk premium, consistent with the recent US experience. Numerically, using the Epstein and Zin preferences, the model calibration suggests that the historical data moments can be accommodated by persistent regimes and high intertemporal elasticity of substitution. Notably, the study’s simple-structured model with multiplicity and a regime-switching structure is a preliminary contribution to the field of economics, paving the way for future empirical studies.     

Equilibrium dynamics in a class of one-sector endogenous growth models with external habits: An application of special functions

This paper analyzes the equilibrium dynamics in a class of one-sector endogenous growth models with external habits. Using an explicit solution expressed in terms of the Gauss hypergeometric function, we show that the levels of consumption, habits and capital may exhibit non-monotonic transition dynamics, even though their ratios converge monotonically. A numerical simulation illustrates this result.     

Evolution and market behavior with endogenous investment rules

In a repeated market for short-lived assets, we investigate wealth-driven selection among investment rules that depend on endogenous market variables, such as current and past prices. We study the random dynamical system describing prices and wealth dynamics and characterize local stability of the long-run equilibria in which one or a group of traders dominate. Multiplicity of stable and unstable equilibria, leading to path dependency and persistent heterogeneity, turns out to be a common phenomenon generated by two different mechanisms. Firstly, conditioning investment decisions on endogenous market variables implies that the relative performance of investment rules, in terms of average growth rates, may be different for different prevailing prices, so that the market may fail to select a global winner. Secondly, the feedback existing between past asset prices and current investment decisions can lead to a form of deterministic overshooting.     

Innovation dynamics and fiscal policy: Implications for growth,asset prices,and welfare

We study the equilibrium implications of different fiscal policies on macroeconomic quantities and welfare by utilizing an endogenous growth model that matches asset pricing data well. The fiscal instruments of interest are (i) subsidies to R&D expenditure, consumption and capital investment, and (ii) cuts in labor and corporate tax rates. Our equilibrium analysis provides new insights on the interplay of innovation dynamics and fiscal policy. Importantly, we find growth and welfare to be inversely related when changing R&D subsidies. However, this depends on how well the model reproduces asset pricing dynamics. Moreover, only subsidies to capital investments and cuts in the corporate tax rate have the potential to increase both growth and welfare.     

FIRM SIZE AND STOCK RETURNS: A QUANTITATIVE SURVEY

Firm size is commonly used in numerous empirical asset pricing models as a determinant of expected stock returns. Yet there is little consensus over the magnitude and stability of the size premium. In fact, some researchers even question whether firm size should be used as a pricing factor. We collect 1746 estimates of the slope coefficients capturing the association between firm size and stock returns reported in 102 published studies and conduct the first meta‐analysis on the size premium. We find evidence of a strong bias toward publishing statistically significant negative slope coefficients. After correcting for the bias, we find that the literature implies a difference in annual stock returns on the smallest and the largest New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) market capitalization quintiles of 1.72%. For the time periods covered in the sampled articles, we find that the size premium was larger in earlier years and that the intensity of publication bias has been decreasing over time.     

Heterogenous beliefs with sentiments and asset pricing

We present a dynamic equilibrium model with two irrational investors: an extrapolator and a contrarian, whose beliefs regarding the growth rate of dividend stream are biased by their sentiments. The key contribution is to connect two disagreements with the degree of irrationality of investors and to provide novel insights into the predictability of stock return. We show that the higher level of sentiment disagreement is, the more stock price is overvalued. However, the future stock price will decline because the extrapolator’s sentiment will cool down over time. Therefore, the sentiment disagreement negatively predicts future return. At the meanwhile, our model not only shows that the survey expectations about cashflows increase the variations in asset price and dampen the corresponding volatility, but also helps to explain the mixed results about the relationship between the investors’ belief dispersions and stock return predictability.     

Learning by doing,endogenous discounting and economic development

In this paper, we focus on a growth model where the discount rate is decreasing in capital accumulation and endogenous growth is made possible through learning by doing, knowledge accumulation being a by-product of gross investment. In such a model, the utility function has to be restricted to take positive values implying that the elasticity of marginal utility is lower than one. The presence of endogenous discounting generates a steady-state of stagnation which can be saddle-path stable or unstable depending on the marginal productivity of knowledge. In the case of long run growth, the fact that the elasticity of marginal utility is lower than one implies the existence of two asymptotic balanced growth paths: the one with the higher growth rate being a saddle point while the one with the lower growth rate not being a saddle point. We also study the optimal solution which is characterized by a unique balanced growth path. The policy consists as usual in subsidizing investment in order to internalize the externality.