Family size,birth order and educational attainment: Evidence from China

Using Chinese Household Income Project survey data from 2013, this paper investigates the effects of family size and birth order on children's educational attainment. The endogeneity of family size is an important identification issue in the test of the quantity-quality tradeoff. We use variations in a mother's exposure to various phases of China's family planning policies by Hukou type, ethnicity and regional differences in fine rates as instruments to identify the causal effects of family size. We find that family size has a negative effect on children's education. Using family fixed effects model, we find a positive birth order effect. In addition, both the family size and birth order effects are more pronounced for families where first-born children are females than those where the first-borns are males. Birth order effect is more evident in financially constrained families.     

Macroeconomic policy,output, and inflation in the former Czechoslovakia: Some evidence from the VAR analysis

Both macroeconomic policy and structural adjustment factors influenced the dynamics of output and inflation in the former Czechoslovakia during the first phase of its transition from central planning to markets. The results of VAR analysis indicate that, following price liberalization, the impact of structural adjustment processes on the level of output was somewhat stronger than the impact of macroeconomic policy. Moreover, it seems likely that a "looser" macroeconomic policy—advocated by many as a countermeasure to a large decline in industrial production—would only worsen the situation, bringing both higher inflation and a larger decline in industrial production.     

International data on educational attainment: updates and implications

This paper presents a data set that improves the measurementof educational attainment for a broad group of countries. Weextend our previous estimates to 1995 for educational attainmentfor the population over ages 15 and 25. We also provide projectionsfor 2000. We discuss the estimation method for the measuresof educational attainment and relate our estimates to alternativeinternational measures of human capital stocks.     

Monetary vs. fiscal policy: Some evidence from vector autoregression for India

This paper investigates the relative importance of monetary and fiscal policy for India. Unlike previous studies, a more general approach of multivariate vector autoregression has been employed. Analysis of the causality results based on the joint F-tests and the dynamic multipliers based on the variance decompositions and the impulse response functions unambiguously support the Keynesian stance on the importance of fiscal policy. There is very little evidence of exogeneity of money supply, undermining the validity of the monetarist proposition. On the contrary, Indian monetary policy appears to have accommodated changes in government expenditure, prices and output, lending support to the structuralist-Mundellian views.     

Some evidence on the cohort earnings differentials of men in Japan

This study analyses the cohort earnings differentials of full-time working men in Japan using large micro data on individuals. Log earnings differentials between two cohorts of the same age calculated from 2012 and 2017 surveys reveal a substantial earnings decline for university graduates around age 43 and senior high school graduates around age 38 in 2017. These cohorts experienced a severe deterioration of job opportunities after the bubble burst. The Blinder–Oaxaca decomposition shows that the composition effect dominates the wage structure effect. In particular, a shortened length of tenure and a decline in the share of those working in a large firm are the main causes of the earnings gap for senior high school graduates and for university graduates, respectively. While an increase in the proportion of those working in the service sector and a reduced share of regular workers are also important determinants for the earnings differentials for high school graduates, deteriorated opportunities for promotion to supervisory positions play an important role for university graduates. Extending this analysis to a longer time period and estimating the cohort earnings differential equation clarify that the observed stability of cohort earnings differentials for university graduates emerge not only from the importance of firm size differentials in determining their earning differentials, but also from the high stability of firm size differentials between cohorts for university graduates.     

Actual age at school entry, educational outcomes, and earnings

This paper reports on the effect of actual age measured by month at school entry on test scores, eventual educational attainment, and labor market outcomes, using school test score data and a labor force survey of Japan. Japan is an ideal country for examining the pure effect of actual age at school entry on eventual years of education because the length of compulsory education does not vary by birth month and legal administrations assure that almost all children follow a fixed schedule of grade progress. Older children of both sexes in a school cohort obtain higher test scores and more education years than their younger counterparts. This better academic performance translates into higher annual earnings among males.     

Monetary policy reaction functions and saving-investment correlations: Some cross-country evidence

Zusammenfassung Reaktionsfunktionen für die Geldpolitik und Korrelationen zwischen Ersparnis und Investitionen: Evidenz aus einer Querschnittsuntersuchung. — In diesem Artikel wird untersucht, wie stark die Geldpolitik auf Ver?nderungen in der Handelsbilanz reagiert. Verschiedene Sch?tzungen der linearen Reaktionsfunktionen mit Quartalsdaten für Deutschland, Italien, Japan und die USA zeigen, da\ in allen L?ndern mit Ausnahme der USA ein Defizit in der Handelsbilanz zu einer restriktiven Geldpolitik führt. Ein spezielles Sch?tzverfahren erlaubt den Schlu\, da\ die Reaktionsfunktionen nicht-linear sind, soweit es sich um die Handelsbilanzvariable handelt. Auch zeigt sich, da\ die Geldpolitik st?rker auf Defizite als auf überschüsse reagiert. Sobald Asymmetrie zugelassen wird, verbessern sich die Reaktionsfunktionen und die Parametersch?tzungen werden pr?ziser.

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Résumé Les fonctions de la réaction de la politique monétaire et les correlations entre épargne et investissements: quelque évidence d’une étude de plusieurs pays. — Dans cet article les auteurs examinent le degré avec lequel la politique monétaire a réagi à la balance courante. L’OMC, robustes et paramètres-variables estimations des fonctions de réaction linéaires avec des données trimestrielles de l’Allemagne, l’Italie, du Japon et des Etats Unis proposent pour les pays sauf les Etats Unis que le déficit de la balance courante mène à une politique monétaire restrictive. Les résultats d’une estimation spécifique indiquent que les fonctions de réaction sont non-linéaires aux termes de la variable pour la balance courante. La politique monétaire réagit plus fortement aux déficits qu’aux surplus. En outre, l’admission de l’asymétrie améliore la performance des fonctions de réaction et produit des paramètres estimés plus précis.

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Resumen Funciones de reacción de politica monetaria y correlaciones entre ahorro e inversión: alguna evidencia para una muestra de países. — En este trabajo se examina el grade en el cual la politica monetaria ha reaccionado a la cuenta corriente. Estimaciones MCC y de parametres robustos y variables de las funciones lineares de reacción con datos trimestrales de Alemania, Italia, Japon y de los Estados Unidos sugieren — los Estados Unidos siendo la excepción — que, ceteris paribus, el déficit de cuenta corriente resulta en una oferta monetaria restrictiva. Los valores criticos de la estimación (threshold estimation) indican que las funciones de reacción son no lineares en cuanto a la variable de la cuenta corriente, y que la política monetaria reacciona más a los déficits que a los superávits. Además, al incorporar la asimetricidad se mejora la performance de las funciones de reacción y se las estimaciones de los parámetros resultan más precisas.

     

Concentration,diversification and earnings instability: Some evidence on developing countries' exports of manufactures and primary products

Policies aimed at diversification of the commodity composition of exports continue to be advocated as a means of reducing instability in LDCs' export earnings. The usual assumptions are that earnings from manufactures are more stable than earnings from primary products and that diversification will reduce the covariances between earnings from different pairs of products. It is suggested here that for several reasons these assumptions may not be valid. Evidence is then presented which indicates that across a sample of countries diversification has taken place but has not been accompanied by relatively greater stability in manufactures and favourable changes in covariances.     

Farm household economics: Some policy implications for emergent farmers in Southern Africa

Farm household economics recognises the fact that production and consumption decisions are made jointly by small farm (ie surplus‐producing) households. This phenomenon is of particular importance in areas where small farm households predominate.

Most empirical applications of farm household economics have been directed at measuring the effects of price changes on consumption and have relied on the ‘separable’ approach in deriving estimates. This approach assumes that production decisions always precede consumption decisions with farm households treated as profit maximizers in production and utility maximizers in consumption. Results have clearly demonstrated consumption responses smaller than estimates based on consumer theory alone.

Although many researchers regard mathematical programming as a potentially suitable tool for simulating smallholder behaviour, proponents of new household economics would be reluctant to accept any model that does not (a) maximize utility (rather than profit) and (b) capture the ‘profit effect’ which variations in product prices have on the farm household's full‐income constraint. Attempts to include these basic postulates of farm household economics in programming models are in progress.     

Immigration and the public transfer system: Some empirical evidence for Switzerland

Immigration and the Public Transfer System: Some Empirical Evidence for Switzerland. —The paper deals with the distributional effects of immigration into Switzerland. The cross-section analysis for 1990 shows that the presence of resident foreigners has not put additional strain on the public purse. On the contrary, there was a favourable financial effect for the native population. The analysis reveals how important the age and qualification of the household head and the number of children in the household are. By including both monetary and real public transfer payments a compre-hensive account of the budget effects of immigration is given.     

Fiscal policy and economic growth: some evidence from China

Review of World Economics - China has experienced profound economic and social changes in recent decades. During this period, China’s fiscal policy framework has been substantially reformed....     

Exports and labor costs: evidence from a French policy

We investigate the role that labor costs hold in exporters’ performance. To do so, we exploit a large-scale French reform that granted most firms a tax credit proportional to the wagebill of their employees paid below a given threshold. This policy effectively translated into a cut in labor cost whose magnitude varies depending on firm-specific wage structures. We use the predicted treatment intensity based on pre-reform composition of the labor force as an instrument for the actual policy-induced firm-level change in labor costs. Although our point estimates are consistent with commonly estimated firm-level trade elasticities combined with reasonable labor shares in total costs, coefficients are found to be very noisy, suggesting lack of robust evidence of a causal effect of the policy. We discuss several potential explanations for our results as well as their implications.     

School quality and educational attainment: Japanese American internment as a natural experiment

In 1942, the United States incarcerated all Japanese Americans on the West Coast, including children, in internment camps. Using non-West Coast Japanese Americans and non-Japanese Asians as control groups, I estimate the effect of attending a War Relocation Authority school on educational attainment. Non-linear difference-in-differences estimates suggest that attending school within the internment camps decreased the probability of receiving a post-collegiate education by approximately 4 to 5 percentage points and decreased the probability of receiving a college degree by between 2 and 7 percentage points. I find some evidence that attending a WRA school may have decreased the returns to education as well. By using un-incarcerated birth cohorts and races, placebo tests find no evidence that the identifying assumptions are violated.     

On the explanation of schooling,occupation and earnings: Some alternative path analyses

Summary Jencks's well-known sociological path analysis connecting parental socio-economic characteristics and some ability measure of the person investigated with his or her schooling, occupation and income is available for the United States, Sweden and the Netherlands in various versions. For the United Kingdom the analysis has now been applied to the new General Household Survey, supplying over 5000 observations. This article compares the various results and offers a few alternative models, using the American and British data. These alternatives do not offer, in the British case, improvements in variance explained. Moreover, most regression coefficients show wide variations between countries. A suggestion for improvement is derived from a recent study using at least three occupation characteristics.We are grateful to the British Office of Population Census and Surveys for making available to us the data from which the UK results reported in this article were obtained.     

White/ethnic minority earnings and employment differentials in Britain: evidence from the LFS

It is 20 years since Britain passed legislation to combat racialdiscrimination. Despite this, evidence presented in this papersuggests that Britain's non-white ethnic minorities still donot appear to face a level playing field in the UK labour marketand their relative position does not appear to have improvedsince the 1970s. Native ethnic minorities also appear to befaring little better than their parents. It is in gaining employmentthat the situation is particularly acute.     

On demographic aging,inflation, and real wages: Some evidence from the Netherlands

Summary The findings of this paper suggest that when allowance is made for the potential impact of low fertility on relative price levels, the emergence of a state of sustained population decline might lead to levels of economic well-being which are declining both absolutely and relative to populations experiencing moderate growth. Such a conclusion emerges only after the passage of some 30 years; prior to this time span, conventional results (slower population growth yielding faster income growth) are confirmed. The result is attributable to a considerable scarcity of labor, resulting from fundamental changes in the ratio of workers to (older) dependents.This research was conducted while the author served as a visiting senior research scholar at the Netherlands Interuniversity Demographic Institute (NIDI), under the auspices of the Fulbright-Hays Act. Voluminous thanks are due to NIDI and its director, Pro. Dr. D. J. van de Kaa, for generous clerical and computer support. A special note of thanks for many helpful suggestions and insights is due to Drs. J. J. van Oosterwijk-Bruyn, Dr. H. G. Moors and Prof. C. J. O'Neill. All errors and omissions are, of course, the sole responsibility of the author.     

The role of China in global external imbalances: Some further evidence

The large imbalances in the current account positions of the US and the Asian economies are seen by most scholars as the main threat to an orderly development of the global economy. While the opinions on the most likely evolution of these imbalances and on their sustainability do differ across observers, ranging from catastrophic to rather optimistic views, almost all agree that some adjustment will have to take place in the near future, and that this adjustment will involve, among other things, a rebalancing of saving and demand across the globe. As an outcome of this process, China shall increasingly supplement the US in the role of engine of global economic growth.Using a global macroeconometric model, we examine the impact on this adjustment process of a number of shocks originating in the Chinese economy, including an expansionary fiscal shock, a revaluation of the renmimbi, and an expansion of internal demand following an acceleration in the process of rural–urban migration. The analysis focuses on two related points: how will these shocks affect the medium-run evolution of transpacific imbalances, and what will their impact be on global economic growth. The simulations allow us to track the impact of these shocks on the different poles of the world economy, and to assess their relative contribution to the task of reducing global imbalances without interrupting global economic growth.