Robust monopoly pricing

We consider a robust version of the classic problem of optimal monopoly pricing with incomplete information. In the robust version, the seller faces model uncertainty and only knows that the true demand distribution is in the neighborhood of a given model distribution. We characterize the pricing policies under two distinct decision criteria with multiple priors: (i) maximin utility and (ii) minimax regret. The equilibrium price under either criterion is lower then in the absence of uncertainty. The concern for robustness leads the seller to concede a larger information rent to all buyers with values below the optimal price without uncertainty.     

Public pension and household saving: Evidence from urban China

We relate household savings to pension reform, to explain the high household savings rates in urban China from a new perspective. We use the exogenous – policy-induced – variation in pension wealth to estimate explicitly the impact of pension wealth on household savings, and obtain evidence of a significant offset effect of pension wealth on household savings. Although the size of the effect depends on the parameter values assumed, the finding that household savings are affected by pension reform is robust. Our estimates show that, under plausible scenarios, pension reform boosted household savings rates in 1999 by about 6–9 percentage points for cohorts aged 25–29 and by about 2–3 percentage points for cohorts aged 50–59. Our results also indicate that declining pension wealth reduces expenditure on education and health more than on other consumption items.     

Exploiting old customers and attracting new ones: The case of bank deposit pricing

Recent theoretical contributions suggest that deposit interest rates should be higher in geographic areas characterized by greater in-migration and lower for depositors at banks with greater shares of existing (or so-called “locked-in”) depositors. These hypotheses are tested using a rich data set obtained for the Spanish banking industry. Results confirm that, all else equal, banks offer higher deposit rates in territories characterized by greater in-migration, and also that they tend to offer lower rates, the larger the number of their locked-in depositors. These findings confirm the existence of the trade-off between exploiting old customers and attracting new ones.     

State wage-payment laws, the Pension Protection Act of 2006, and 401(k) saving behavior

I show empirically that state wage-payment laws, which forbid deductions from wages and salaries without the written permission of the employee, constituted a binding constraint on firms’ choices to adopt automatic enrollment in 401(k) plans prior to 2006.     

Corruption, inflation and growth

We present a model in which the embezzlement of tax revenues by public officials leads the government to rely more on seigniorage to finance its expenditures. This raises inflation which depresses investment and growth via a cash-in-advance constraint.     

Redistribution and the marginal cost of public funds

Discussions of the marginal cost of public funds with distortionary taxation are often cast in the framework of a one-consumer economy, while the main justification of distortionary taxes is that they are needed for redistribution. This paper analyzes the issue in a model with heterogeneous consumers and a linear income tax, focusing on the tradeoff between labour market distortions and the redistribution from high-wage to low-wage workers. In an optimal tax system the MCF will be the same for all sources of funds and under certain assumptions less than one. Without optimality the MCF will in general differ between different sources of finance.     

Pre-sale information

In markets as diverse as that for specialized industrial equipment or that for retail financial services, sellers or intermediaries may earn profits both from the sale of products and from the provision of pre-sale consultation services. We study how a seller optimally chooses the costly quality of pre-sale information, next to the price of information and the product price, and obtain clear-cut predictions on when information is over- and when it is underprovided, even though we find that information quality does not satisfy a standard single-crossing property. Buyers who are a priori more optimistic about their valuation end up paying a higher margin for information but a lower margin for the product when they subsequently exercise their option to purchase at a pre-specified price.     

Military reserves and social welfare

We consider the contribution of reserves to the efficient mobilization of military manpower. Our analysis suggests that offering recruits an option to serve as reservists enhances social welfare if there is a sufficiently strong relationship between recruit performance in the military and their expected civilian income.     

Political regimes and income inequality

We construct a theoretically-motivated model of income inequality. Through a pooled regression on an international panel, we demonstrate that political regime (whether extractive, redistributive, or reinvestment-oriented) correlates with within-country income inequality.     

Duality of welfare and profit maximization

Many economists are aware that the conditions for the efficiency and monopolization in a partial equilibrium framework are the extremes of the Ramsey–Boiteux formula when the Lagrange multiplier for the budget varies. We formalize the duality existing between the welfarist and monopolist constrained maximization programs by proving the following “folk theorem”:      

Exchange of indivisible goods and indifferences: The Top Trading Absorbing Sets mechanisms

There is a wide range of economic problems that involve the exchange of indivisible goods with no monetary transfers, starting from the housing market model of the seminal paper by Shapley and Scarf (1974) to problems such as the kidney exchange or the school choice problem. The classical solution to many of these models is to apply a mechanism called Top Trading Cycles, attributed to David Gale, which satisfies good properties for the case of strict preferences. In this paper, we propose a family of mechanisms, called Top Trading Absorbing Sets mechanisms, which generalize the Top Trading Cycles to the general case in which individuals are allowed to report indifferences, while preserving a maximal possible set of its desirable properties.     

Asset pricing in large information networks

We study asset pricing in economies with large information networks. We focus on networks that are sparse and have power law degree distributions, in line with empirical studies of large scale social networks. Our theoretical framework yields a rich set of novel asset pricing implications. We derive closed form expressions for price, volatility, profitability and trading volume, as functions of the network topology. We also study agent welfare and show that the network that optimizes total welfare is typically a uniform one with an intermediate degree of connectedness.     

Optimal versus realized policy rules in a regime-switching framework

In this paper we compare a deterministic model and a Markov switching model to analyze the behavior of the US economy and the Federal Reserve. We examine both optimal and empirical monetary policies for the US Federal Reserve between 1960 and 2008. We compare the optimal monetary policy to the actual interest rates and to the empirical reaction function. We also evaluate the sensitivity of the results to the preferences assigned to each objective. We find that there is no unique optimal solution that fits the Federal Reserve behavior over the entire period. The best fit to the actual interest rates is obtained by an optimal policy with preference switches following the rule: a high-volatility regime coincides with a priority on inflation alone while in a low-volatility regime there is equal policy priority on output stabilization and inflation.     

The dynamics of inequality and social security in general equilibrium

This paper analyzes the dynamic politico-economic equilibrium of a model where repeated voting on social security and the evolution of household characteristics in general equilibrium are mutually affected over time. In particular, we incorporate within-cohort heterogeneity in a two-period Overlapping-Generation model to capture the intra-generational redistributive effect of social security transfers. Political decision-making is represented by a probabilistic voting à la Lindbeck and Weibull (1987). We analytically characterize the Markov perfect equilibrium, in which social security tax rates are shown to be increasing in wealth inequality. A dynamic interaction between inequality and social security leads to larger social security programs. In a model calibrated to the U.S. economy, the dynamic interaction is shown to be quantitatively important: It accounts for more than half of the social security growth in the dynamics. We also perform some normative analysis, showing that the politico-economic equilibrium outcomes can be fundamentally different from the Ramsey allocation.     

On the feasibility of monetary union: Does it make sense to look for shocks symmetry across countries when none of the countries constitutes an optimum currency area?

Usually, a monetary union is not considered feasible between countries if the correlations of shocks are positive but weak. This may not be so if the country with the larger output gap converges to full-employment equilibrium faster than the country with the smaller gap. We argue that common monetary policy can be destabilizing when countries' responses to non-monetary shocks are perfectly symmetric with a correlation of 1 but exhibit differing investment sensitivities to the real interest rate. We use Canada, Mexico and the United States to test the feasibility of a monetary union by documenting whether: 1) gross investments in Canada and Mexico are equally responsive to the real fund rate, and 2) Canada and Mexico's output growth and inflation respond differently to US monetary policy shocks and oil price shocks. This approach implicitly dictates whether the shocks themselves are symmetric or asymmetric. Using quarterly data and SVAR methodology, we conducted two layers of analysis. We estimated SVARs for the periods 1970–2008, 1970–1990 and 1991–2008 to find that a monetary union is feasible between Canada and the US for the first two sample periods. For Canada and Mexico, we find similar responses of output growth to US monetary policy shocks. We conducted further robustness tests by estimating two identified VARs with common US variables and oil prices for Canada and Mexico to assess commonality in responses to shocks with the US. These results affirm that a monetary union is also feasible between Canada and the US.     

The empirical validity of the New Keynesian Phillips curve using survey forecasts of inflation

This paper investigates the performance of the New Keynesian Phillips curve when survey forecasts of inflation are used to proxy for inflation expectations. Previous authors such as Brissimis and Magginas (2008) have applied survey measures of inflation expectations to the NKPC, and have concluded that these estimates are superior to those estimated using actual data on future inflation. However this approach employs the use of the labor income share as the proxy for real marginal cost, something which is highly problematic once we consider the countercyclicality of this variable. This paper develops and tests a procyclical marginal cost variable alongside various survey measures of inflation forecasts in the NKPC, while recognizing the problem of weak instruments that occurs when estimating the model using conventional GMM. We find that the NKPC produces a counter-intuitive negative and significant coefficient on procyclical marginal cost when surveys of inflation forecasts are used, which casts serious doubt on the empirical viability of the NKPC model, even when estimated with survey inflation forecasts.     

Regime-switching effects of debt on real GDP per capita the case of Latin American and Caribbean countries

In this paper, we try to investigate how the debt and real GDP per capita relationship varies with indebtedness levels and other country characteristics in a balanced panel of 21 developing Latin American and Caribbean countries over the period 1992–2006. The empirical results indicate that there exist two threshold values of 32.88% and 55.89%. The latter is lower than the Maastricht criterion and Stability and Growth Pact of a total external Debt per GDP ratio at 60% in the OECD countries. Both thresholds divide our panel into three regimes. In the middle (stimulus) regime, the Debt per GDP ratio has a positive impact on real GDP per capita, which is consistent with the stimulus view (Eisner, 1984). However, the impact becomes negative and consistent with the crowding-out view (Friedman, 1977, 1985) in the left and right (crowding-out) regimes. Based on our findings, we find no supportive evidence for Ricardian view (Barro, 1989). Therefore, our empirical results have important implications for fiscal policymakers in these Latin American and Caribbean countries.