What is the future of cancer care? A technology foresight assessment of experts’ expectations

ABSTRACT

The aim of this paper is to generate qualified information on technologies that are expected to be relevant to cancer care over the next thirty years (2017–2037). Drawing on the concepts of technology foresight, a methodology was developed for future technology research. Future technologies were identified by consulting editorials of journals specializing in oncology. Nine technologies were selected with the potential to impact cancer care in the future. Additionally, a method was developed for consulting a large number of experts from articles indexed in Thomson Reuters Web of Science. In this survey, more than 83,000 cancer specialists were invited to answer a web survey in which they expressed their expectations about the future of cancer care. The questionnaire was answered by 2408 specialists, 56% of whom stated they were highly knowledgeable experts. Our results show that antibody-related therapies, molecular imaging, and tumor delivery systems are the technologies most likely to be used in cancer care in the next thirty years. The main reasons pointed out for the choice of these technologies were improvements in the prognosis of the disease and improved diagnostic reliability. Meanwhile, knowledge and scientific barriers were highlighted as the main obstacles to the development of the technologies deemed to have more limited chances of success.     

Exchange rate management when sterilized interventions represent signals of monetary policy

The signalling channel of foreign exchange market interventions suggests that sterilized interventions represent signals of future monetary policy and thus affect exchange rate expectations. Within a two-country game-theoretic framework, which incorporates two novel factors—partial credibility and non-rational expectations—that reduce the exchange rate effects of intervention operations, I derive non-cooperative and cooperative policies of exchange rate management. To retain credibility in the future, sterilized interventions must be accomodated by corresponding subsequent changes in the money supply. Thus, interventions do not represent an instrument independent from general monetary policy. It is shown that the implied tradeoff between internal and external policy objectives makes the coordination of intervention operations advantageous, even in the case of conflicting exchange rate targets.     

The methodology combination of a national foresight process in Germany

In September 2007, the Federal German Ministry for Education and Research (BMBF) launched a new foresight process which aimed at four specific targets. To achieve them, a tailor-made combination of methods was applied. This paper focuses on the concept design of the process and explains one of the methods — the future online survey — in more detail.The German Foresight Process of the BMBF delivers results on different levels: broader future fields as well as single future topics. Both kinds are relevant and selected according to a set of criteria. Some of the results of this foresight process will be directly integrated into national policy activities, others are just more indirectly filtered into the innovation system of the specific sectors in the country. The future fields are all cross-cutting issues based on science and technology. All of them are specifically knowledge dynamic fields.     

Effects of Technology Absorptive Capacity and Technology Proactivity on Organizational Learning, Innovation and Performance: An Empirical Examination

Technology is crucial for organizations in the knowledge society, but little empirical research has been conducted on technology absorptive capacity and technology proactivity. Based on existing theoretical studies, this article formulates a global model to analyse how technology absorptive capacity and technology proactivity influence organizational learning and organizational innovation, and how these dynamics capabilities affect organizational performance. The model also shows how organizational learning affects organizational innovation. The hypotheses are tested using data from 246 Spanish technological firms. The paper discusses the findings and provides several implications for future research. The findings are important for management practice, especially for firms where technology is the main strategic element.     

Effects of Technology Absorptive Capacity and Technology Proactivity on Organizational Learning,Innovation and Performance: An Empirical Examination

Technology is crucial for organizations in the knowledge society, but little empirical research has been conducted on technology absorptive capacity and technology proactivity. Based on existing theoretical studies, this article formulates a global model to analyse how technology absorptive capacity and technology proactivity influence organizational learning and organizational innovation, and how these dynamics capabilities affect organizational performance. The model also shows how organizational learning affects organizational innovation. The hypotheses are tested using data from 246 Spanish technological firms. The paper discusses the findings and provides several implications for future research. The findings are important for management practice, especially for firms where technology is the main strategic element.     

Linking political ecology with ecological economics in tree plantation conflicts in Cameroon and Ecuador

Industrial tree plantations are rapidly expanding worldwide and notably causing a growing number of conflicts between companies and local populations. Such conflicts — the focus of the article — have been neglected by ecological economists although there is a proliferation of related reports by environmental non-governmental organizations. This paper uses empirical evidence to show how elements of political ecology and ecological economics can be combined for understanding the languages of valuation deployed in tree plantation conflicts in Southern countries. Combining qualitative fieldwork on a Cameroonian rubber plantation and an Ecuadorian eucalypt plantation with a methodological framework taken from the study of social metabolism, we find that both conflicts (although with different emphasis) arise because of land and biomass appropriation, ground clearing, pollution from agrochemicals, and water shortage and are expressed as conflicts on valuation. The metabolism of such tree plantations, through the exchanges of materials with the local environment, explains the bio-physical basis of such conflicts. In the Cameroon case, resistance is mainly sporadic and individual, while in Ecuador, a grassroots organization has been able to respond to rural demands in a structured way. Both patterns of resistance are found in other present-day resource extraction conflicts.     

Using technology to support the CLAS Standards

Effective communication is essential for ensuring effective patient education to support patient acquisition of self-care knowledge and behaviors. National standards have been developed suggesting methods for meeting this need and systems changes are either mandated or recommended within health care delivery organizations to assure movement toward the goal of effective patient-provider communication. By availing themselves of the opportunity to assign these nationally standardized cultural competency modules as part of institutional requirements, nursing administrators and managers can implement a cost-effective method for improving the cultural knowledge base of nursing personnel.     

International research strategies of multinational corporations: A German perspective

This paper explores the international research activities of multinational corporations that are related to Germany. It analyzes what role German companies and Germany as a host of foreign companies play in the growing specialization of global exploitation and generation of knowledge. The paper covers application oriented as well as strategic research for two company samples—German and non-German—on the basis of a complex indicator-based analysis (patents and publications) and microdata from business reports. The paper shows that internationalization of research and development (R&D) has increased and broadened in scope. It highlights the strong and growing differences existing between technological and scientific areas as well as between different sectors. Apparently, while the market adaptation of products is still the major driver for German companies, international knowledge seeking has become more and more important, especially in technological areas that are linked very closely to basic research. While Germany as a host of international industrial R&D is much more attractive for applied research (mechanical engineering) than for basic research, the country has still established attractiveness in selected knowledge-intensive technological areas and shows a high intensity of international cooperation. There is a high level of reciprocity in knowledge-intensive areas pointing towards a global specialization and division of labor.     

Improving the Delphi process: Lessons from social psychological research

The Delphi technique was largely developed to avoid the problems of freely interacting groups such as dominant individuals and pressure to conform to the majority view. Our review of the social psychological literature reveals some obstacles to Delphi achieving its full potential relative to other cheaper and easier methods of aggregating judgment. We identify residual normative and informational pressures towards consensus that potentially reduce process gain that might otherwise be achieved. For instance, panelist confidence may act as a signal of status rather than be a valid cue to expertise, whereas consensus appears to have a strong influence on the final outcome that can reduce its accuracy when there are valid minority opinions. We argue that process gain in Delphi must occur through those further from the "truth" changing their opinion more than those closer to the truth, with the general direction of opinion change being towards the truth. For such virtuous opinion change to occur we suggest the need to both facilitate opinion change and provide good cues as to where the truth lies. Research on Judge Advisor Systems shows that people usually do not change their opinion as much as they should, giving too much weight to their own opinion and too little to the views of others—this bias can be reduced by increasing involvement and motivation. In addition, we propose that the best way to provide good cues as to the direction of the truth is to elicit rich reasoning from panelists about the judgment or choice in question, then use this as feedback. We suggest practical ways of focusing and deepening panelists’ consideration and evaluation of such reasoning—such that all proffered opinions are well-evaluated. Additionally, we propose a model of opinion change in Delphi for use as a paradigm for future process-orientated research.     

The effect of reducing risk and improving personal motivation on the adoption of knowledge repository system

The role of Knowledge Repository Systems (KRSs) is to provide the exchanging intermediaries of explicit knowledge between knowledge contributors and knowledge seekers to assist knowledge sharing of employees in the organization. However, there is still a lack of deep understanding of how to reduce perceived risk and improve personal motivation on the adoption of KRSs in previous research. The paper presents social-psychological-technical perspectives to integrate social factors of reduced perceived risk (trust and organizational support) into Motivation Model (MM) and develop a comprehensive framework for assessing and analyzing the interaction of technology with the social, psychological, and behavioral aspects in KRSs. The proposed framework is validated with 528 respondents from teaching hospitals located in Taiwan, which shows that social factors of reduced perceived risk, personal motivation factors, and technology quality factors are three key factors affecting the acceptance of the KRSs. In other words, technological, social, psychological aspects will affect simultaneously behavioral intention in KRSs. Moreover, the psychological aspects are important mediators among technological, social, and behavioral aspects. The findings may be used as theoretical base for future research and offer empirical foresight to managers of organizations in assessing and evaluating the performance of the KRSs.     

Learning process and rational expectations: An analysis using a small macro-economic model for New Zealand

The nature of expectations matters when conducting monetary policy. Models with a learning process can exhibit very different properties from models with other types of expectation rules. This paper draws on the work of Orphanides and Williams [Orphanides, A., Williams, J.C. 2002. Imperfect knowledge, inflation expectations and monetary policy, Federal Reserve Board Finance and Economics Discussion Series, 2002-27], extending it to allow for the possibility that the learning process may not be perpetual, but rather might be converging towards a rational expectations equilibrium. By modelling expectations using a learning process, we obtain that inflation expectations in New Zealand are moving towards rational expectations. The closer expectations are to rational, the more inflation can be reduced without costs, thus arguing for a rather tough policy aimed at anchoring expectations on the target.     

商业模式设计如何促进企业可持续导向创新绩效——来自扎根理论的多案例研究

高质量发展背景下,企业可持续导向创新绩效成为学界关注的焦点。基于扎根理论,以6家企业为例,遵循“思维—行为—结果”逻辑,推演商业模式设计对可持续导向创新绩效的作用路径,即商业模式设计—知识治理—可持续导向创新绩效。结果表明：商业模式设计体现的微观、中观和宏观结构层次,与知识治理体现的显性和隐性维度,以及可持续导向创新绩效体现的基础性、发展性和增值性间具有对应逻辑关系。最后,提出注重经济、环境和社会创新绩效协同发展,发挥知识治理桥梁作用等启示。     

Quantification and characteristics of household inflation expectations in Switzerland

Inflation expectations are a key variable in conducting monetary policy. However, these expectations are generally unobservable and only certain proxy variables exist, such as surveys on inflation expectations. This article offers guidance on the appropriate quantification of household inflation expectations in the Swiss Consumer Survey, where answers are qualitative in nature. We apply and evaluate different variants of the probability approach and the regression approach; we demonstrate that models that include answers on perceived inflation and allow for time-varying response thresholds yield the best results; and we show why the originally proposed approach of Fluri and Spörndli (1987) has resulted in heavily biased inflation expectations since the mid-1990s. Furthermore, we discuss some of the key features of Swiss household inflation expectations, i.e. the fact that there has been a shift in expectation formation since 2000 (expectations are better anchored and less adaptive, and there is lower disagreement of expectations). We suggest that this may be linked to the Swiss National Bank’s adjustment of its monetary policy framework around this time. In addition, we outline how expectation formation in Switzerland is in line with the sticky information model, where information disseminates slowly from professional forecasters to households.     

Profiling mobile TV adopters in college student populations of Korea

By profiling demographic characteristics, perceived general adoption attributes, perceived value-based adoption attributes, motivational needs, mass media use, and content interest, this exploratory study examines the nature of four categories of mobile TV adopters — current, potential, continuous non-, and discontinuous user groups. Despite the limited sample size (N = 214), there are some meaningful findings. First of all, the non-adoption rate of mobile TV of the continuous non-, and discontinuous user groups is higher than the adoption rate of the current and potential user groups. Less than half of the respondents (N = 34) who had used TV on a mobile device were unwilling to use it again in the next twelve months, and almost half of those (N = 102) did not have the intention of using it within the coming year. The results suggest that the discontinuous group seems to have been dissatisfied with the actual mobile TV use when compared with their expectations and evaluations, while the potential user group is more likely to have high expectations and positive evaluations before the adoption and use of mobile TV. All user groups were unwilling to pay the fee, despite the current and potential user groups perceiving the exceptional values. No differences were found in the personality trait of innovativeness and mass media use behaviors among the four groups.     

Moral hazard,competition and contract design: empirical evidence from managerial,franchised and entrepreneurial businesses in Norway

Agency theory emphasizes the role of ownership, control and incentives in encouraging managers to improve efficiency. Owners often tie managers to contracts that reduce conflict of interest between owners and managers. The differences between alternative business ownership structures have been investigated. According to theory, we expect managers with an outcome-dependent dealer contract to be more efficient than managers with a more integrated and less performance based employee dealer contract. We also analyse how competitive pressure might reduce the moral hazard problem and therefore affect contract design. Berle and Means (The Modern Corporation and Private Property, Macmillan, New York, 1932) long ago stated that the market mechanism could constrain the agency problem. Even so, this problem has scarcely been investigated empirically. This paper also considers the contractual effect of potential monitoring costs, education and relationship age in a model tested on data from 175 dealer contracts in a multinational oil company.     

Roadmapping 3G mobile TV: Strategic thinking and scenario planning through repeated cross-impact handling

In order to deal with growing uncertainties emerging in the 3G wireless industry and to preserve their competitiveness, managers involved in the wireless value network should identify future success very early and develop their strategic planning on time. This study, based on a Scenario Evaluation and Analysis through Repeated Cross impact Handling, allows the generation of both qualitative and quantitative scenarios and can be used as an operative planning tool. The dynamic forces driving the scenario are based on the main principles of system thinking and multiple features. The probabilistic data have been elicited with the help of 40 executives in USA and Europe working for companies in the different phases of the wireless value chain. Findings allow to identify basic trends and uncertainties useful to develop corporate or business strategies.     

偏好反转对协同知识创新决策的影响

基于协同知识创新决策风险性,引入行为经济学偏好反转理论,从知识积累视角构建偏好反转影响下的知识创新模型。将协同知识创新决策从单纯的选择决策拓展为选择/放弃决策,在不同决策背景下对模型进行演算。结果发现,当协作方对创新资源投入分摊比例较低时,主体对未来收益的不确定性预期较低,而在偏好反转的影响下,放弃决策对预期收益的退出定价可能较高,从而使背离放弃决策相比进入选择决策更有利于协同创新。研究结论解释了当前较多的协同知识创新联盟尽管没有实现科技政策调整的预期效果,但未大规模解体且力趋稳定合作的现象。     

Institutions and the R&D of GM-crops

This paper analyzes how different institutional structures shape the research and development (R&D) of genetically modified crops (GM-crops). Whether this R&D is conducted within companies, cooperatives or public research organizations (both publicly and privately funded R&D) is expected to influence the type of crops and traits that are developed and therefore the effects on society and ecosystems that potentially could follow from the use of GM-crops. This issue is analyzed empirically by statistical analysis of 1323 notifications for field trials with GM-crops that have been submitted under two EU Directives in seven European countries. The results show that the type of R&D organization influences the traits and crops that are developed. Companies are more likely to submit notifications that concern GM-crops that secure the potential for profit than are other types of R&D organizations, while R&D organizations that are purely publicly funded are more likely to submit notifications that only concern biosafety research than are cooperatives and companies. Consideration of the environment, food safety and food security might justify institutional reforms of R&D of GM-crops. This might include increased public funding combined with changes in intellectual property rights.     

Precautionary savings and the governance of nonprofit organizations

We present a model of nonprofit governance built on two assumptions: (1) organizations wish to hold precautionary savings in order to smooth expenditures; and (2) it is relatively easy for managers to divert these funds for personal use. Hence, donors face a trade off between expenditure smoothing and donation dissipation. We examine the model's predictions using panel data on U.S. nonprofits. We show that organizations in states with poor government oversight have managerial compensation that is more highly correlated with inflows of donations and allocate a smaller percentage of donations to the endowment for future expenditures relative to organizations in strong oversight states.