Assessing market power in the U.S. commercial banking industry under deregulation

This study attempts to investigate market power in the U.S. commercial banking industry since the U.S. government began to deregulate the banking sector in the early 1990s using the static Bresnahan–Lau model (SBLM) and dynamic Bresnahan–Lau model with error corrections (DBLEC). In particular, panel unit root and panel cointegration techniques are utilized to examine the dynamic model. The empirical results of the SBLM show that the banking industry is highly competitive. The empirical results of DBLEC also suggest that the commercial banking industry is close to being perfectly competitive in the short run. By contrast, the adjustment speeds of the supply and demand sides towards the long-run equilibrium are quite slow in that market, which implies that the U.S. commercial banks enjoy a certain degree of long-run market power.     

Information technology and economic performance in U.S industries

Abstract .  We study the relationship between information technology (IT) and economic performance, to explore whether IT-capital promotes productivity growth. We use a data set similar to that of previous researchers, but employ non-parametric estimation techniques in order to directly estimate the output elasticities of IT for each industry and time period. We find that IT has a positive effect on productivity, which varies among industries and time. Moreover, adjustment costs are important when identifying this effect. Finally, IT-capital growth appears to be raising income in all industries used in our sample, even those that experienced output reduction.     

The impact of immigration on U.S. demographics

The author discusses the impact of immigration on the demographic profile of the United States, with a focus on changes in the sources of immigration and the effect of U.S. migration policy. "The demographic destruction of the U.S. has been swift and dramatic. The transformation, made in constant contravention of popular mandate, has been unprecedented in the history of democratic societies. To better understand this phenomenon and the role which post-1965 immigration policy plays in it,...15 tables have been created and compiled from the official statistics of the U.S. Bureau of the Census and the U.S. Immigration and Naturalization Service."     

Defense conversion into a global system of proprietary technologies: The case of Taiwan''s aircraft industry

To further industrial development, Taiwan's government has officially targeted the aircraft industry, specifically the Aero Industry Development Center (AIDC)—producer of Taiwan's combat aircraft with a two-and-a-half-decade history. However, despite AIDC's experience in aerodynamics, structure, and engines, redirecting its engineering and production capabilities for commercial jets poses many difficulties. Because military and civilian needs of aircraft design are very different, the commercial benefits of military work on airframes are minimal. In contract manufacturing, one critical factor is efficiency, but AIDC is still relatively weak in scale economies, scope economies, and experience curve. Another critical factor is technology, but most functional and design specifications and standards are imposed by the upper-tier buyers and the integrators. Moreover, neither spin-off nor dual-use strategy can apply effectively, leaving AIDC an enclave isolated from local industry. Overall, the prospect of AIDC's defense conversion is dismal. The military does not have the capability to endorse the transformation; the civilian government is not familiar with the commercial practices; the local firms are not interested in entering this industry; the commercial businesses are largely controlled by the world leading integrators; and, most important, AIDC's core competence is fairly weak. The case typifies a government's futile efforts in a global industry of complex proprietary technological systems.     

The coevolution of firms and their knowledge environment: Insights from the pharmaceutical industry

What are the most effective learning strategies for firms given the characteristics of their knowledge environment? This paper addresses this question by documenting the major changes in the knowledge environment of the pharmaceutical industry, with a particular emphasis on the period since the emergence of biotechnology, and discussing the related changes in the learning strategies of established pharmaceutical firms. Both the historical analysis and a review of the empirical research on organizational learning and knowledge transfer reveal a strong emphasis of firms on external learning through interfirm collaborations and sourcing of external knowledge. This learning strategy seems to be driven by the speed, uncertainty, and dispersion of knowledge developments in the industry. Studying the connections between the knowledge environment and the effectiveness of organizational learning processes is important to understand organizational change and adaptation, and is an area of research that deserves further attention.     

The impact of hospice programs on U.S. hospitals

This study demonstrates that hospice programs are more likely in communities with favorable economic factors and higher Medicare populations. Large hospitals with high occupancy rates and more clinical services use the hospice as an alternative to inpatient care thereby improving hospital efficiency and profitability.     

The fiscal impact of high-skilled emigration: Flows of Indians to the U.S.

What are the fiscal consequences of high-skilled emigration for source countries? This paper develops methodologies for inferring these consequences and applies them to the recent sizable emigration of high-skilled workers from India to the U.S. This wave of emigration from India to the U.S. is shown to be unusually concentrated amongst the prime-age work force, the highly educated and high earners. In order to calculate the fiscal losses associated with these emigrants, estimates of their counterfactual earnings distributions are generated using two distinct methods and integrated with a model of the Indian fiscal system to calculate fiscal consequences. Conservative estimates indicate that the annual net fiscal impact to India of high-skilled emigration to the U.S. is one-half of 1% of gross national income (or 2.5% of total fiscal revenues). The sensitivity of these results to the method of predicting counterfactual incomes and the implications of these estimates for other developing countries is discussed in detail.     

Assessing the Welfare Impact of Tax Reform: A Case Study of the 2001 U.S. Tax Cut

This note acknowledges a programming error in our paper, “Assessing the Welfare Impact of Tax Reform: A Case Study of the 2001 U.S. Tax Cut” (Review of Income and Wealth, 58(2), 233–56, 2012). Correcting the error primarily has the effect of scaling the calculated family welfare impact of 2001 U.S. Tax Cut. The primary conclusions from the analysis, however, are unaffected.     

Assessing the Degree of Spot Market Integration for U.S. Natural Gas: Evidence from Daily Price Data

This paper assesses the degree of market integration in the U.S. natural gas market following the FERC’s ‘open access’ reforms. Daily spot prices at 76 market locations from 1993 to 1997 are used to examine the geographic extent of the market and the speed with which market forces move prices toward equilibrium in the face of ongoing price shocks. The empirical results suggest that the East and Central regions form a highly integrated market, but that this market is quite segmented from the more loosely integrated Western market.     

美国联邦实验室的技术转让

美国联邦实验室与企业研发机构、高等院校和非盈利私人研究机构,共同构成了美国科研活动的四大支柱体系.联邦实验室在美国科研体系和科研创新方面的作用举足轻重,同时也是美国政府推动联邦科研成果转化的生力军,其开展技术转让的情况、经验和做法值得分析和研究.以美国卫生部下属国立卫生研究院(NIH)为例,其实施技术转让的目的,一是促进技术商业化开发,刺激经济发展;二是确保政府公共投入的收益和公众的健康福利.实现了技术转让的商业开发目标与服务社会的公益性目的相结合,将技术转让与基础科研看成是一个良性循环的互动过程.     

Harnessing rivers of wind: A technology and policy assessment of high altitude wind power in the U.S.

This paper provides an assessment of the commercialization potential for high altitude wind power (HWP). Several technological and policy barriers are identified that may affect the development and deployment of the technology in the US. Technical barriers include electrical transmission from high altitudes and the development of viable methods of energy storage to address intermittency. Non-technical barriers include the lack of a carbon price in the US, which provides an advantage to embedded technologies and widens the ‘valley of death.’ A variety of stakeholders are analyzed in order to understand potential impacts upon the development of HWP. Many fossil fuel producers and utility companies have been leveraging political authority to lobby against a carbon tax, which could be crucial for broad deployment of renewable energy technologies. The combination of technical and non-technical barriers indicates that commercialization of HWP is unlikely in the short term. Commercialization would require major policy shifts at the federal level and advances in S&T. Recommendations are provided to increase federal investment in applied research through additional funding for the Advanced Research Projects Agency—Energy (ARPA-E). It is also recommended that ARPA-E create a matching fund to assist in the commercialization of renewable energy technologies.     

美国政府在清洁能源领域的国际合作

美国奥巴马政府执政以来,在国内推行以发展清洁能源产业为特征的“绿色新政”的同时,也加快了该领域国际合作的步伐.美国政府清楚地认识到,能源领域最重大的挑战都是全球性的,共同利益点较多,海外市场巨大,因此发展清洁能源离不开国际合作.本文分析了美国政府在清洁能源领域国际合作的现状和有关政策,就美国能源部与一些重点国家的合作情况作了梳理,并对美国与印度清洁能源科技合作的案例进行了研究.     

美国政府对外国参与美国研发活动的管理概况

本文主要探讨美国对外国参与美国研发活动的基本态度以及政府管理的基本情况。     

Spatial and supply/demand agglomeration economies: State- and industry-linkages in the U.S. food system

Cost-impacts of spatial and industrial spillovers on economicperformance are evaluated by incorporating activity level measures for nearby states and related industries into a cost function model. We focus on localization and urbanization economies for state level food processing industries, from activity levels of similar industries in neighboring states, agricultural input suppliers, and final product demand. We find significant cost-savings from proximity to other food manufacturing centers, and areas with high purchasing power. Cost savings from locating near an agricultural area are also evident, although it seems costly to be located within a rural agricultural state, implying thin market diseconomies. Marginal production costs instead appear higher in more urban, and lower in more rural, areas. These spillover patterns also have input composition implications; materials demand responses are the most closely tracked by the agglomeration cost effects, and capital and labor impacts vary.     

An empirical note on the impact of federal deposit insurance on bank failures in the U.S.

This study empirically examines the impact of federal deposit insurance coverage on the failure rate of commercial banks in the U.S. over the 1963–91 period. The analysis allows for the potential bank failure rate impact of the growth rate of real GDP, the real prime lending rate, the real cost of funds, and the commercial bank tangible capital-to-asset ratio, while measuring federal deposit insurance coverage as the percentage of deposits at federally insured banks that was covered by federal deposit insurance. The instrumental variables' estimates indicate that the greater the extent of federal deposit insurance coverage, the higher the bank failure rate.     

The Law of One Price: A Canada/U.S. exploration

The paper examines whether arbitrage tends to equalize commodity prices for internationally traded homogenous products. It also investigates whether the increasing integration of North American markets has reduced price differences over time, and tests the validity of the so-called Law of One Price. We find that price differences for homogenous tradables between Canada and the U.S. are smaller than those for differentiated tradables and non-tradables, and are statistically insignificant over the period 1985 to 1999. We find no support for the notion that the increasing integration of North American markets due to trade liberalization has reduced price differences between Canada and the United States. Instead, the shifts in the price differences (expressed in the same currency) generally reflected fluctuations in the exchange rate. Canadian prices adapt with a lag to U.S. price changes that are brought about by changes in the exchange rate.     

Employment in the U.S.: Public discourse and longterm trends

Revised version of a talk delivered at a “Presidential Roundtable on President Clinton’s First Year” at the annual meetings of the Association for Social Economics on January 3, 1994 in Boston.     

美国经济失衡对美元汇率的影响

经济内部失衡或者外部失衡对汇率的影响都是不确定的,但是,当经济内外部同时失衡时,汇率贬值或政府干预外汇市场的可能性最大。实证结果支持了上述结论。当美国经济内外部同时失衡时,美元贬值或美国政府干预外汇市场的概率就会提高27个百分点。这意味着,通过汇率变动,美国将内部问题外部化了。理解了美元汇率变动的原因实际上也就理解了21世纪初期以来人民币面临升值压力的原因。