Transcending flatland: Implications of Ken Wilber's meta-narrative for futures studies

The Western futures project was originally founded on empiricist notions of prediction, forecasting and control. While other approaches to futures work, other traditions and ways of knowing, have certainly become established, the early framing of Futures Studies arguably occurred out of this broadly reductionist framework—what Wilber has since termed `flatland'. As a result, current ideologies such as: economic growth, globalisation, the pre-eminence accorded to science and technology, and `man's conquest of nature'—were insufficiently problematised. Technology-led views of the future remain influential within Futures Studies, bureaucratic thinking and popular culture. In this view, the future is less open than it might be because it is seen merely as an extension of the present. Critical Futures Studies question such assumptions. The paper explores how the work of this leading transpersonal synthesist can contribute both to a broadening and deepening of Futures Studies and thus help to activate cultural options that are presently obscured.     

国际间利差交易的回眸与展望

利差交易主要是指借入低利率货币、再投资于高利率货币,从而赚取利差的交易行为。文章介绍了近几年来国际间利差交易的主要种类、规模及收益和风险状况,并对我国利率水平提高后对利差交易产生的影响进行了展望。     

国际税制改革经验对我国的启示

顺应世界各国以“降低税率、扩大税基、调整税收结构、简化税制、清理优惠、加强征管”为主要内容的税制改革潮流,我国的税制改革应以效率与公平的最佳结合为指导思想,以优化税制结构为根本着眼点,以扩大税基、确定合理的税率水平为近期改革的主要方向。     

After the tide: Commodity currencies and global trade

The decade prior to the Great Recession saw a boom in global trade and rising transportation costs. High-yielding commodity exporters׳ currencies appreciated, boosting carry trade profits. The Global Recession sharply reversed these trends. We interpret these facts with a two-country general equilibrium model that features specialization in production and endogenous fluctuations in trade costs. Slow adjustment in the shipping sector generates boom–bust cycles in freight rates and, as a consequence, in currency risk premia. We validate these predictions using global shipping data. Our calibrated model explains about 57% of the narrowing of interest rate differentials post-crisis.     

巨灾小额保险的国际经验及对中国的启示

中国灾害高风险区分布有大量中低收入群体,巨灾小额保险是使其避免因灾导致更深层贫困循环的有效手段。通过对强制性小额信贷附加的巨灾小额保险经验、自愿性小额信贷附加的巨灾小额保险经验、巨灾风险管理体系中的特定补偿巨灾小额保险计划进行分析与比较,提出中国指数型巨灾小额保险的初步构想,并对捐赠款、区域子基金、参数机制、交叉补贴及...     

宏观审慎监管的国际趋势及对我国的启示

2007年爆发的金融危机使得宏观审慎监管成为各国金融监管部门关注的童点.本文从临管目标、内容、对象等角度分析宏观审慎监管的特点,介绍了宏观审慎临管的国际趋势,得出我国宏观审慎监管者应将中央银行和金融行业监管者包含在内、协调国内经济政策与金融监管政策、创新宏观审慎监管工具等启示.     

International trade and financial integration: a weighted network analysis

The authors analyse patterns of international trade and financial integration using complex network analysis. The combination of both binary and weighted approaches delivers more precise and thorough insights into the topological structure and properties of international trade and financial networks (ITN and IFN). It is found that the ITN is more densely connected than the IFN, while both types of network display a core–periphery structure. This hierarchical organization is more pronounced in financial markets, suggesting that the bulk of trade in financial assets occurs through a handful of countries acting as hubs. High-income countries are better linked and form groups of tightly interconnected nodes. This kind of structure can explain why the recent financial crisis has spread rapidly among advanced countries while reaching emerging markets only in a second phase.     

资本项目开放的国际经验对我国的启示

当前我国面临人民币升值的压力不断加大,这种压力既来自国内更多的来自国外。而有效解决人民币升值问题的关键是开放我国的资本项目,研究不同类型特别是新兴国家资本项目开放的经验,将有助于我国选择资本项目开放的路径和时机,以加快资本项目开放的进程。     

Implications of domestic price insulation for global food price behavior

Rapid changes in global food prices in recent years are widely viewed as a serious threat to global development. While various sources of price instability in agriculture have been identified, little attention appears to have been given to the importance of changes in trade policies that insulate domestic prices from world markets as a source of volatility in world prices. A contribution of this paper is to show that these interventions are dynamically more complex than simple proportional insulation. Insulation against an initial price increase in world prices increases the magnitude of that increase, while subsequent adjustments to the level of protection change the fundamental nature of price volatility. We find such policies are widespread and increase the volatility of world prices while not reducing the volatility of domestic prices because of the collective action problem involved in this form of policy intervention.     

International cooperation in a fractured global order

This article takes a fresh look at the context for international cooperation in science and technology. It sketches out some key changes that have taken place in the international scene over the last few years, speculates about what is likely to happen during the next decade, and derives some implications for international cooperation in science and technology.     

利率市场化与金融危机:诱发机理、国际案例与政策启示

国际案例表明:一国利率市场化后金融危机发生的概率明显增加。本文通过厘清利率市场化诱发金融危机的逻辑机理、分析北欧金融危机等国际案例,发现除稳定的宏观经济环境、审慎有效的微观监管、成熟的货币市场等条件外,利率市场化成功推进还需具备以下条件:一是各种宏观政策要有弹性、留有余地,避免顺周期效应;二是市场竞争环境要充分公平,以防范过度竞争;三是利率市场化的配套政策要稳步推进,并防范政策的叠加效应风险。     

住房保障制度的国际经验及启示

解决好城镇居民的住房问题,是政府的重要职责和住房政策的主体目标.本文在总结和借鉴各国政府住房保障制度成功经验的基础上,提出我国现阶段应建立以政府为核心、市场为主导、廉租住房建设为重点的城镇住房保障制度.     

Corporate Real Estate Ownership Implications: International Performance Evidence

In this paper we explore corporate real estate ownership internationally. Based on a sample of 4,636 companies from 18 industries and 9 countries we document distinct patterns and trends in the corporate ownership level of real estate. Real estate ownership appears to be driven by industrial rather than national differences, with corporate real estate ratios ranging between 0.13 for Business Services and 0.63 for the Mining sector. Overall, real estate ownership appears to be decreasing over time, which may be due to the gaining popularity of lease alternatives. When analyzing the stock performance of the companies in our sample, we discover a significantly negative relationship between real estate ownership and a firms systematic risk. Idiosyncratic risk bears no significant relationship with real estate ownership. With respect to stock returns our results show that returns are lowest among firms with the highest real estate ownership levels in each industry. After controlling for the variation in risks, the remaining return patterns differ strongly across industries, with a significantly negative relationship between stock outperformance and real estate ownership for Communications and Business Services and a positive but not significant relationship for Transportation.     

政府绩效审计:国际演进及启示

我国政府绩效审计实践应用中的困惑及其与理想目标的背离,引发了对我国政府绩效审计应用乏力的反思。以国际主流政府绩效审计的发展为主轴,本文系统地描述和剖析了其思想起源、理论演进与实践发展的完整历程,并进行了简要地总结与评述,籍此,针对我国政府绩效审计发展中的瓶颈,就政府绩效审计的本质、范围、评价内容和指标体系设计等关键问题,着力分析了国外政府绩效审计给予的启示与意义,以期为我国政府绩效审计的未来良性变革与发展提供借鉴。     

契约型投资基金治理的国际比较与启示

目前我国证券投资基金主要采取契约型基金管理模式,本文选取英国、德国和日本三个典型的契约型基金管理国家,从基金治理的组织结构、治理机制和监管体系三个方面进行比较分析,归纳总结其契约型基金治理经验及对我国证券投资基金治理的启示。     

Empires of the sky: determinants of global airlines' accounting-policy choices

This study quantifies the current level of diversity observed in airline accounting and examines possible determinants that explain accounting-policy choices by the global airline industry. Airlines' accounting-measurement policy for unrealized foreign-exchange differences and their disclosure of frequent-flyer information remains diverse. Inferential statistics shows that larger airlines tend to take unrealized foreign-exchange differences directly to equity and tend to disclose frequent-flyer accounting policy, while airlines with lower leverage tend to disclose frequent-flyer accounting.     

直销银行国际经验借鉴及对我国的启示

互联网金融的迅速兴起激起了我国商业银行发展直销银行的热潮。作为一种新型的业务运营模式,直销银行具有机构少、人员精、成本小等显著特点。当前我国已具备了发展直销银行的客户基础和技术条件,进一步应该确定位目标客户群体、建立专属的产品体系、正确处理内外部竞合关系、完善风险管理和相关监管政策。     

证券融资交易国际监管改革进展及对我国的启示与借鉴

此次国际金融危机表明,影子银行由于缺乏监管、信息不透明、资本覆盖和流动性储备不足,成为系统性风险的重要来源。危机后,金融稳定理事会(FSB)和巴塞尔银行监管委员会等国际标准制定机构协调合作,制定了加强影子银行监测和监管的一揽子政策措施。其中,针对证券融资交易的流动性风险、杠杆风险、交叉传染风险和顺周期效应,提出了一系列监管措施建议,旨在防范证券融资交易的潜在系统性风险,维护全球金融稳定。我国在证券融资交易方面发布实施了一系列法规制度,但近期发生的“国海证券”等事件也暴露出部分证券融资交易行为不规范、反复开展证券融资交易产生流动性错配和杠杆风险、监管框架不够系统完整等问题,对金融市场稳定运行造成了一定的负面影响。本文论述了危机后国际标准制定机构提出的证券融资交易监管框架,结合我国业务发展情况和存在的问题,提出了完善我国证券融资业务监管的相关建议。     

基金税制的国际比较及借鉴

目前,全球投资基金的资产规模超过10万亿美元,已成为一个重要的金融产业。与基金业的高速发展相适应,世界上许多国家和地区特别是证券市场相对完善、经济发展水平较高的发达国家和地区,在基金税制上进行了许多卓有成效的探索。我国的基金业目前正处于起步阶段,还没有一套完善的基金税制。但我们可以借鉴国外发达国家有关基金课税的一些做法,为我国基金业的发展提供制度上的保障。     

借鉴国外税务审计经验完善我国税务审计制度

税务审计作为强化税收征管的措施,日益受到各国重视。OECD成员国的税务当局均把提高税法遵从度作为其使命或长远目标,并制定相应的税务管理战略。本文在借鉴外国税务审计经验和成功做法的基础上,结合我国实际,提出构建制度化、规范化和信息化的税务审计体系应成为我国实施科学化、精细化税务管理,进一步提高税收征管质量和效率的重要内容。