要素禀赋、贸易成本与中国出口产品多元化的目标国差异——以“一带一路”沿线国家为例

文章基于2005-2014年中国对“一带一路”沿线国家HS-6出口产品数据,采用洛伦兹曲线和固定效应面板数据分别从理论和实证两个层面考察了要素禀赋和贸易成本对中国出口产品多元化的影响,在此基础上,进一步考虑了近年来中国对外直接投资（OFDI）的迅速增加对出口产品多元化的交互性影响。结果表明,中国与目标国之间的要素禀赋差异越小、地理距离越近、贸易一体化程度越高,中国出口到目标国的产品多元化水平越高;有形资本对出口产品多元化的影响最为显著,远远超过了人力资本和土地等其他要素禀赋;而OFDI的快速增长在一定程度上抑制了出口产品多元化水平的提高,意味着中国“走出去”战略应充分权衡出口多元化与OFDI的关系。     

战略资产获取与中国OFDI企业的“自我选择”效应——基于中国制造业上市公司的分析

文章基于2005-2014年中国制造业上市公司数据,利用面板多元排序离散被解释变量模型,对中国战略资产获取型OFDI企业的“自我选择”效应进行实证检验。除了验证传统理论中企业基于生产率的“自我选择”效应外,检验结果还发现：中国战略资产获取型OFDI企业规模更大、多为非国有企业、多位于沿海开放城市、创新能力更强、更注重品牌塑造、长期偿债能力更强、增长速度较慢。在此基础上,更进一步考察发现：中国OFDI企业的“自我选择”效应存在着区域间和行业间的差异;通过引入金融危机虚拟变量,文章证明中国OFDI企业的“自我选择”效应在金融危机前后存在着“经济结构变动”情况。     

“一带一路”班轮航运网络结构特征对沿线双边贸易的影响

海运设施联通推动贸易畅通是促进“一带一路”高质量发展的重要途径。文章基于社会网络分析法，揭示了共建“一带一路”国家（地区）班轮航运网络的结构特征，并实证检验了其对沿线双边贸易的影响。研究发现：沿线班轮航运网络表现出“小世界”的特征；各国（地区）的个体特征存在明显的空间差异；一国（地区）节点强度和广延性的结构特征显著促进了双边贸易增长；网络结构特征的贸易增长效应在“一带一路”倡议实施前后、不同港口环境和不同经济发展水平下存在显著异质性；机制检验表明，网络结构特征将通过降低贸易成本和增强市场引力来促进双边贸易的增长。     

速度型盈利模式与质量型盈利模式——对企业经营绩效异质性的实证解释

面对相同的宏观经济下行压力,在部分企业经营绩效受到较大冲击的同时,另一部分企业却能实现“逆势上扬”,基于内在质量能力差别的盈利模式差异是重要原因。运用2015年“中国企业-员工匹配调查”（CEES）数据,文章将2013-2014年全要素生产率增速低于地区GDP增长率的企业分类为“速度型盈利模式”,而将高于地区GDP增长率的企业分类为“质量型盈利模式”。通过构建涵盖质量投入和质量绩效的综合性质量能力指数,文章采用工具变量法（IV）、有限信息最大似然估计（LIML）和倾向得分匹配模型（PSM）,对不同盈利模式企业应对宏观经济下行压力的差异性进行了基于自身质量能力的实证解释。结果表明,质量能力对于企业经营绩效具有显著的正向因果效应。     

“凿空之旅”泽万民:“一带一路”对外直接投资如何提高劳动收入份额

文章基于2003-2016年中国上市公司数据,采用倾向得分匹配和双重差分法（PSM-DID）探讨"一带一路"沿线对外直接投资与母国劳动收入份额之间的因果关系。实证发现,企业对外直接投资长期内整体上提高了职工的工资份额。考虑企业所处地区、行业和劳动者的异质性后,结论仍然稳健。具体而言,企业通过对外直接投资的逆向技术溢出提高了创新能力、研发投入和全要素生产率,从而提高了母国职工工资份额。此外,企业的技术进步具有高技能劳动力的偏向性,母国高技能劳动者的工资份额在企业对外直接投资中得以显著提升,但对于母国低技能劳动者的工资份额影响不显著。文章研究发现"一带一路"沿线对外直接投资对母国劳动收入份额的影响机制和具体效应提供了微观证据。     

中国对"一带一路"沿线国家投资的技术溢出效应研究

"一带一路"沿线国家是中国开放新时期对外直接投资的重点区域,实现并扩大中国对外投资的正向技术溢出,对促进沿线各国转型发展、提高中国对外直接投资效益均有重要影响。利用38个沿线国家2003—2015年的面板数据,借助GMM估计法分析我国对沿线国家直接投资的技术溢出效应。研究结果表明,中国对沿线国家直接投资存在显著的正向技术溢出,但与出口贸易相比溢出水平较低;东道国科技研发实力、对外开放程度、金融发展水平等因素可显著扩大中国对沿线国家直接投资的技术溢出效应。     

杨宝祝：农业与农村信息化大有可为

十一年前种下的一颗创业种 子，而今已长成枝繁叶茂的大树。11 年间，从“国家科技进步奖” 到“中国中小企业 100 强”，从“科技型中小企业创新基金”到 国家“863”计划项目，北京派 得伟业科技发展有限公司（下称 “派得伟业”）获得的荣誉不胜枚 举。这些荣誉的背后是派得伟业 对中国农业与农村信息化的梦想 和坚持。作为派得伟业的创始人 和“掌门人 ”，杨宝祝成功地实 现了从专家到企业家的转型，并 带领派得伟业一路发展壮大。不 仅如此，他对整个产业的发展亦 有着深刻的认识和理解。在他的 办公室，杨宝祝向本刊记者畅谈 自己的创业道路，剖析农业与农 村信息化发展的瓶颈，描绘农业 与农村信息化的未来。     

我国与“一带一路”沿线国家文化产品贸易的发展分析

"一带一路"倡议的提出是我国文化产品贸易发展的重大机遇,文章以1997～2016年我国对"一带一路"沿线65个国家文化双边贸易额数据为基础,分析了我国与"一带一路"沿线国家的文化产品双边贸易差额、区域分布及产品结构,得出以下结论:我国与"一带一路"沿线国家的文化产品贸易差额不断扩大,但在国家及区域之间分布不均衡,出口产品结构不平衡,文章最后提出了促进我国文化产品出口"一带一路"沿线国家的对策。     

我国最新运载火箭“长征五号”转入初样研制 等

我国最新型的大运载火箭“长征五号”已顺利转入初样研制阶段，以确保2014 年首飞目标实现。“长征五号”将满足2030 年以前国内外卫星发射市场需求。“长征五号”的研制，必将加速提升我国空间技术水平，满足我国未来30 年至50 年发展空间技术、和平开发利用空间资源的需求。目前，“长征五号”正在优化火箭总体初样技术方案及相关试验方案。“长征五号”的首个5 米直径的产品——储箱箱底已完成焊接装配，正式下线。“长征五号”是我国火箭发展史上第一个“边型号设计、边设备研制、边土建施工”的项目。其研制与位于天津的总装厂房“新一代运载火箭产业化基地”建设同步进行。（科学院网）     

产业政策扶持激励了企业创新吗?——基于“五年规划”变更的自然实验

产业升级是政府产业政策的核心目标,这一宏观过程顺利与否很大程度上取决于微观企业的创新活动。文章以2007-2014年中国上市公司为样本,利用2011年“五年规划”变更这一自然实验构造的双重差分模型（DID）探讨了宏观产业政策之于微观企业创新的经济后果及其作用机制。研究表明,产业政策能够增加被扶持企业的创新投入,且影响程度呈现出“先升后降”的动态变化趋势;上述作用主要是通过政府补贴、税收优惠等“资源效应”而非通过降低企业市场势力、行业集中程度等“竞争效应”实现的;进一步研究发现,资源依赖下的产业政策降低了被扶持企业的创新效率,这在“特惠型”的资源分配方式即政府补贴和税收优惠等集中于少数企业的情况下尤为严重。上述结论为我们理解产业政策对企业创新的作用及其内在机制提供了经验证据。     

The roles of cultural and institutional distance in international trade: Evidence from China's trade with the Belt and Road countries

Cultural distance and institutional distance have been playing increasingly significant roles in international trade. Recently, the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) proposed by China has drawn worldwide attention. This paper examines the roles of cultural distance and institutional distance in China's trade relationship with the Belt and Road (B&R) countries. We estimate the extended gravity model using bilateral trade data at product-level during 2002–2016 between China and 99 trading partners, 38 of which are along the Belt and Road. Using Poisson generalized estimating equations (GEE) econometric methods, we find that firstly, cultural distance and institutional distance inhibit China's bilateral trade with the Belt and Road countries. Secondly, China's bilateral trade with the B&R countries is more sensitive to the change of cultural distance than institutional distance by comparing their beta coefficients. Thirdly, compared to Asian countries on the Belt and Road, bilateral trade flows between China and European countries show less sensitivity to changes in cultural distance, except China's imports from its trading partners. While the trade effects of institutional distance show no difference between China's trade with European countries and Asian countries. Lastly, the announcement of BRI does reduce trade-inhibiting effect of cultural distance on China's trade with the Belt and Road countries, while increase China's exports sensitivity to institutional distance. This study finally suggests relevant cultural exchange driven by the BRI eventually assisting unimpeded trade and deepening the cooperation.     

China's Belt and Road Initiative: Can Europe Expect Trade Gains?

The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) aims to improve cross‐border infrastructure to reduce transportation costs across a massive geographical area between China and Europe. We estimate how much trade might be created among Belt and Road (B&R) countries as a consequence of the reduction in transportation costs (both railway and maritime) and find that European Union countries, especially landlocked countries, will benefit considerably. This is also true for Eastern Europe and Central Asia and, to a lesser extent, South‐East Asia. In contrast, if China were to seek to establish a free trade area within the B&R region, EU member states would benefit less, while Asia would benefit more. Xi Jinping's current vision for the B&R, centered on improving transport infrastructure, is advantageous for Europe as far as trade creation is concerned.     

“一带一路”沿线国家投资便利化:水平、挑战与对策--基于熵值法的测度分析

"一带一路"沿线国家市场需求和发展潜力巨大,提升其投资便利化水平对于我国扩大对沿线国家直接投资规模和提升投资质量意义重大。本文基于沿线国家的特点,选取基础设施、制度环境、金融市场、劳动力市场4项一级指标和20项二级指标系统地构建投资便利化水平测度体系,并运用熵值法测度"一带一路"沿线国家2014年-2018年的投资便利化水平,发现沿线国家投资便利化水平呈逐年上升态势,但差异大,区域不平衡性显著,且投资便利化水平与经济发达程度呈正相关关系。在此基础上,结合当前中国对沿线国家开展直接投资所面临的挑战,提出中国与沿线各国应加强合作,共同推进基础设施建设,维护透明高效的制度环境,深化双边金融合作,积极发展本国劳动力市场等对策建议。     

The Impact of the US Interest Rate Hike on Emerging Market Economies and the Belt and Road Initiative

Since the end of 2015, the US Federal Reserve has raised its benchmark interest rate nine times. This has led to capital outflows and asset depreciation in many emerging market economies. The present paper examines the factors that determine the financial volatility of emerging markets in the face of external shocks. By calculating the capital flows of 30 emerging markets from 1990 to 2018 and conducting panel regression, this paper finds that countries with good infrastructure facilities, a sound banking system and high economic growth have significantly lower cross‐border financial risks. An implication from the empirical analysis is that emerging countries would benefit greatly by actively taking part in the Belt and Road Initiative. The framework of the Belt and Road Initiative allows emerging countries better access to China's massive consumer market to promote trade and long‐term growth. Their quality of infrastructure can be improved through cooperation with China in infrastructure investment. They can also jointly establish a cooperative financial framework to enhance regional financial stability. These strategies will reduce systematic financial risks and counteract the negative impacts of US interest rate hikes.     

Investment facilitation and China's outward foreign direct investment along the belt and road

This study provides a comprehensive and accurate measurement of investment facilitation in 66 countries along the Belt and Road from 2007 to 2018. The expanded gravity model analyzes the impact of host country investment facilitation on China's outward foreign direct investment, and the panel threshold model examines the nonlinear relationship between investment facilitation and outward foreign direct investment. The results indicate significant differences in the level of investment facilitation among countries along the Belt and Road. Overall, spatial distribution characteristics are higher in East Asia, Southeast Asia, and Europe compared to other regions. An increase of 1% in the level of investment facilitation provided by the host country can generally promote a 2.173% increase in China's outward foreign direct investment. Market size (GDP) and technological progress rate (Tec) were used as thresholds for dividing countries along the Belt and Road into four economic regions. Countries in the different economic regions have different levels of sensitivity to investment facilitation and first-level indicators. Currently, Chinese outward foreign direct investment is based on market acquisition but will be based on technological upgrading in the future.     

Assessment of the effects of infrastructure investment under the belt and road initiative

Based on the estimated effect of infrastructure investment on total factor productivity (TFP) enhancing and trade costs reducing, this paper uses the data from Asian Development Bank to numerically assess the effects of Asian nations' infrastructure investment under the Belt and Road Initiative within the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) model, and the results show that most countries or regions' economic growth, welfare, foreign trade, and trade terms are promoted in varying degrees. However, some countries (regions) have suffered. Additionally, the existing division of labor and trade patterns between developed economies and developing countries somehow consolidated because of changes in trade. In addition, China's industrial transformation and upgrading will benefit from the infrastructure investment under the Belt and Road Initiative, namely, the traditional industries slowdown or decline and high-tech manufacturing and service industries speed up, along with the optimization of factor allocation among industries.     

“一带一路”境外经贸合作区赋能新发展格局的逻辑与思路

境外经贸合作区是共建“一带一路”的重要抓手,有助于推动中国企业高质量、规模化和协同化“走出去”,构建以中国为主导的“一带一路”国际产业链供应链,营造良好的共建“一带一路”国际环境。政府推动和引导、政策优惠、园区选址和产业定位是境外经贸合作区建设和发展的重要前提条件。未来共建“一带一路”境外经贸合作区,应完善政府间合作机制,规范园区管理体制,推动中国与沿线国家的标准互认互通,提高园区的金融服务供给水平,更好地发挥跨境电商和数字贸易的作用,积极发挥中欧班列的运输和物流作用,总结园区发展经验并创新园区类型。     

Testing the trade credit and trade link: evidence from data on export credit insurance

Trade finance has received special attention during the financial crisis as one of the potential culprits for the great trade collapse. Several researchers have used micro level data to establish the link between trade finance and trade, especially so during the financial crisis, and have found diverting results. This paper analyses the effect of trade credit on trade on a macro level through a whole cycle. We employ Berne Union data on export credit insurance, the most extensive dataset on trade credits available at the moment, for the period of 2005–2011. Using an instrumentation strategy we can identify a significantly positive effect of insured trade credit, as a proxy for trade credits, on trade. The effect of insured trade credit on trade is very strong and remains stable over the cycle, not varying between crisis and non-crisis periods.     

Can Cultural Affinity Promote Trade ? HSK Test Data from the Belt and Road Countries

As Chinese culture is “going out,” more and more non‐native Chinese speakers are beginning to study Mandarin and are taking the Hanyu Shuiping Kaoshi (HSK) test. Mandarin has become a very important trade language for the Belt and Road countries. This paper uses the difference‐in‐difference model and the Mahalanobis distance and the nearest neighbor distance matching methods to study the internal relationship between culture “going out” and foreign trade. We find that cultural affinity is an important factor in promoting trade, and that the HSK project has expanded China's exports to the Belt and Road countries. Culture's promotion effect in Asia is stronger than that in Europe. Culture's promotion effect shows the characteristics of regional differences, a time‐lag and a fluctuating upward trend. Therefore, further enhancing the international influence of its culture would help China to find a new source of export growth.     

出海

2013年,"一带一路"倡议提出。处于"一带一路"和长江经济带联结点的重庆,在西部地区带头开放带动开放,如今已与全球224个国家和地区开展经贸往来。重庆小康工业集团股份有限公司,正是重庆响应"一带一路"倡议、积极主动融入共建"一带一路"的企业之一。2014年,重庆小康工业集团股份有限公司在印度尼西亚万丹省投资建设海外工厂。2017年底,工厂正式投产。通过两年的辛勤耕耘,逐渐在印尼市场站稳了脚跟。