Free Trade Agreement with Endogenous Market Structure

We examine the incentives of free trade agreement (FTA) formation between two countries under endogenous market structure with leaders and followers. We demonstrate that establishing a FTA is neither an equilibrium outcome nor socially optimal when consumer demand and fixed cost are intermediate, products are close substitutes and countries are asymmetrical. This is because the FTA induces exit of followers, which makes the market less competitive and shrinks the leader’s production both in the domestic and foreign markets. We also show that large developing countries are less likely to establish a FTA than small developed countries.     

Investor Expectations and the North American Free Trade Agreement

The paper uses a stock market event study to examine investors' expectations of NAFTA's effect on the profitability of manufacturing industries in the USA, Canada, and Mexico. The main finding is that factor intensity, specifically a measure of the industry–wide labor–capital ratio, is the most significant determinant of excess returns. The results suggest that investors believed the NAFTA would favor industries that used abundant factors intensively and reduce profitability in industries that relied heavily on scarce factors; and, more generally, that factor intensity is a primary source of comparative advantage. No significant relationship was found between the relative scale of industries among the three countries and the NAFTA's expected influence on profitability.     

Trade creation and trade diversion in the Canada – United States Free Trade Agreement

In this paper the changes in trade patterns introduced by the Canada-United States Free Trade Agreement are examined. Variation in the extent of tariff liberalization under the agreement is used to identify the impact of tariff liberalization on the growth of trade both with member countries and non-member countries. Data at the commodity level are used, and the results indicate that the Canada-United States Free Trade Agreement had substantial trade creation effects, with little evidence of trade diversion. JEL Classification: F13, F14
Création de commerce et diversion de commerce dans l'Accord de libre-échange Canada-U.S. Ce mémoire examine les changements dans les patterns de commerce international engendrés par l'Accord de libre-échange entre la Canada et les Etats-Unis. La variation dans l'intensité de libéralisation tarifaire selon les secteurs dans l'Accord est utilisée pour identifier l'impact de la libéralisation tarifaire sur la croissance du commerce à la fois entre les pays membres et avec les pays non-membres. A l'aide de données par produits, on montre que l'Accord a eu des effets substantiels de création de commerce mais qu'il n'y a pas lieu de croire qu'il y a eu beaucoup de diversion de commerce.     

Short-Term and Long-Term Margins of International Trade: Evidence from the Canada-Chile Free Trade Agreement

We investigate the impact of the Canada-Chile Free Trade Agreement (CCFTA) on Canadian exports to Chile, particularly the dynamic effects of the agreement on extensive and intensive margins of trade. Consistent with the literature, we find that the extensive margin effects occurred later than the intensive margin effects and became more prominent in the long-term. Surprisingly, the intensive margin effects died off in the long-term. A theoretical model is constructed to show that our results can arise in a standard setting of intra-industry trade.     

美国自由贸易协定战略安排与中国竞争地位研究

美国全球自由贸易协定战略调整导向着全球经济一体化的发展方向。中国自由贸易协定建设起步较晚，但中国-东盟自由贸易区的启动已经使中国在东亚取得先机。在此种情况下，美国在东盟、中东及中亚国家的渗透合作，与中国形成竞争局面。中国应加快与新加坡、日本、韩国及印度等不同发展程度国家的贸易磋商与谈判，以加强中国外贸可持续发展的战略合作。     

试析《中美洲自由贸易协定》多角化影响

历经9年的艰苦谈判之后,美国与中美洲五国及多米尼加签署了《中美洲自由贸易协定》(CAFTA-DR).该协定的签署对于中美洲国家而言意义重大,借助该协定的实施,中美洲国家的贸易与直接投资将会得到大幅度的增长,地区经济将会快速发展.同时,CAFTA-DR的签订,改变了中美洲原先的次区域一体化优先路线,对中美洲未来的区域一体化进程将会产生深远的影响.     

Trade agreements and international comovements: The case of NAFTA (North American Free Trade Agreement)

Business cycles correlation between Mexico and the US changed from being on a downward sloping path before 1992 to an upward sloping path after that. This paper suggests that the North American Free Trade Agreement could be the explanation. NAFTA generated not only an increase in the volume of trade but also a change in the elasticity of substitution between imports and exports. The paper tests this hypothesis using the neoclassical business cycles model. Although there are still some discrepancies between the theory and data in the degree of correlation, the direction of change in the model corresponds to the one in the data.     

Morocco and the US Free Trade Agreement: A specific factors model with unemployment and energy imports

This paper examines the impact in Morocco of its pending free trade agreement with the US in a specific factors model with unemployment and energy imports. Projected price scenarios across eight industries lead to adjustments in outputs, energy imports, rural wages, urban wages, and the unemployment rate. The model predicts substantial adjustments for reasonable price scenarios. Rural wages fall unless agriculture is subsidized. Unemployment, assumed inversely related to output, is sensitive to price changes. Factor substitution only affects the degree of output adjustments. Adjustments in capital returns lead to industrial investment and subsequent long run output adjustments.     

The Canada-U.S. Free Trade Agreement and labour market adjustment in Canada

Evidence suggests that the Canada-U.S. Free Trade Agreement (CUSTA) had almost no effect on earnings and had a small negative effect on manufacturing employment. Theory suggests that a change in trade policy may affect skilled and less-skilled workers differently. The labour market consequences of CUSTA tariff reductions are analysed in this paper. It is found that the tariff reductions lowered employment predominantly among less-skilled workers but did not affect the earnings of either skilled or less-skilled workers. The employment effects are due to the fact that relatively less-skill-intensive industries were more highly protected than high-skill-intensive industries prior to CUSTA.
On montre que l'accord de libre échange Canada-US n'a eu presque pas d'effet sur les gains et un impact négatif faible sur l'emploi dans le secteur manufacturier. La théorie suggère qu'un changement dans la politique commerciale peut avoir un effet différent sur les travailleurs qualifiés et moins qualifiés. Le mémoire analyse les effets des réductions dans les droits de douane sur le marché du travail. Il appert que les réductions des tarifs douaniers ont eu des effets négatifs sur l'emploi des moins qualifiés mais n'ont pas affecté le niveau des gains des qualifiés et des moins qualifiés. Les effets d'emploi sont attribuables au fait que les industries engageant des personnes relativement moins qualifiées étaient davantage protégés avant l'accord de libre échange que les industries employant une main d'oeuvre plus qualifiée.     

Unity versus Collaboration: Construction of China's Belt and Road Free Trade Agreement 2.0 Network

In the context of the United States prioritizing bilateral as well as trilateral trade agreements and China's regional economic integration strategy based on the Belt and Road (B&R) Initiative, the B&R free trade agreement (FTA) and the US–European–Japanese FTA (UEJFTA) have become the two regional economic integration processes with the greatest potential impact on the world economic landscape. The present paper examines the game situation as well as the economic effects of China's B&R‐FTA 2.0 network against the United States' UEJFTA to study the optimization of China's B&R FTA system. By constructing a four‐country extended game model under a two‐part expansion, we find that an increase in members will promote the welfare of each country when there is a single regional trade agreement; the potential member countries tend to choose larger organizations for higher economic benefits when there are several regional trade agreements. Our quantitative simulation shows that promoting the construction of the FTA 2.0 network based on the B&R can significantly alleviate the impact of FTA entered into by the United States with its major trading partners.     

Effects of a Free Trade Agreement on the Exchange Rate Pass‐through to Import Prices

This paper investigates the effect of trade liberalization on the exchange rate passthrough (ERPT) to import prices. To do so, it employs an empirical estimation of the effects of North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) on the Mexican ERPT, and uses a Ricardian general equilibrium model. The model identifies two channels that explain how the trade liberalization alters the ERPT. The first channel is the direct relationship between the tariffs and the pass‐through by good. The second channel is the effect that tariffs have on the composition of imports, altering indirectly the aggregate pass‐through.     

How effective is the Free Trade Agreement in South Asia? An empirical investigation

We investigate the efficacy of preferential trade liberalization in changing the observed trade pattern among the South Asian countries that have entered into the South Asian Free Trade Agreement (SAFTA). Although in its nascent stage, some data are now available to provide an ex-post evaluation of the performance of this bloc. Using these data, we find no empirical evidence of trade creation among SAFTA members, which is not surprising given that tariff concessions in SAFTA are small and are offset by complicated rules of origin procedure. However, a substantial and statistically significant increase in exports from SAFTA members to the rest of the world is found. Several panel strategies are used to check the sensitivity of the results against the assumptions of the estimation strategies. As some key coefficient estimates are found to differ across estimation methods, policymakers in South Asia need to use care in relying on the results from empirical studies, including our own, in formulating their trade policies.     

Foreign Direct Investment in Australia Following the Australia–US Free Trade Agreement

A model of inward foreign direct investment for Australia is estimated. Foreign direct investment is found to be positively related to economic and productivity growth and negatively related to foreign portfolio investment, trade openness, the exchange rate and the foreign real interest rate. Foreign direct investment is found to be a substitute for both portfolio investment and trade in goods and services. The exchange rate and the US bond rate affect foreign direct investment through the relative attractiveness of domestic assets. Actual foreign direct investment outperforms a model‐derived forecast in recent years, consistent with the liberalisation of foreign investment screening rules following the Australia–US Free Trade Agreement.     

A general equilibrium,ex-post evaluation of the EU–Chile Free Trade Agreement

This paper evaluates the impact on the Chilean economy of the EU–Chile Free Trade Agreement, in force since 2003, based on a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model. The evaluation method, inspired by structural decomposition methods, consists of double calibration of the model, to account for interactions between the agreement's impact and structural change in the Chilean economy. Trade flows are modeled at the detailed product level (six-digit level classification). The agreement is found to be slightly beneficial to Chile's economy on the whole, benefiting mainly unskilled labor, with gains concentrated in few sectors (fruits, wine, fisheries and seafood processing).     

Regional Trade Agreements and Cross‐border Lobbying: Empirical Evidence from the Canada–US Free Trade Agreement Negotiations

This paper documents participation of special interest groups in negotiations of the Canada–US Free Trade Agreement. Using data on the tariff reduction schedules mandated by the agreement, it shows that industries represented by strong lobby groups were faced with more favorable tariff reduction paths in both countries: phase‐out periods were longer at home and shorter in the partner country. This result provides evidence on the involvement of industry lobbying in negotiation of regional trade agreements and suggests that countries negotiating trade agreements are responsive to the interests of lobbying groups from across the border. Both results provide important implications for the political economy theory of trade agreements.     

Free Trade Agreements and Domestic Politics: The Case of the Trans‐Pacific Partnership Agreement

What is the role of domestic politics in facilitating or constraining a government's decision to participate in free trade agreements (FTAs)? This paper seeks to answer this question by focusing on the domestic politics in Japan over the Trans‐Pacific Partnership Agreement (TPP). In particular, we ask why the opposition to the TPP encompasses a much broader segment of society than is predicted by trade theorems. We show that a broader protectionist coalition can emerge through persuasion and policy campaigns by the elites, in particular, powerful protectionist interests expending resources to persuade the uncertain public.     

自由贸易协定中原产地规则的经济效应分析

原产地规则是自由贸易协定中的一项重要内容,对于正在积极参与自由贸易协定的中国来说,更是一个日益重要的理论和实践问题.本文着重于分析自由贸易协定中的原产地规则对企业成本、贸易、投资和福利方面的影响,并在此基础上提出我国制定和有效发挥原产地规则作用的政策建议.     

The effect of the Canada‐US Free Trade Agreement on Canadian multilateral trade liberalization

In this paper show that the Canada‐US Free Trade Agreement (CUSFTA) tariff preferences have triggered a decline in Canadian external tariffs, explaining a two percentage point reduction in the average tariff between 1989 and 1998. Next, we found that industries that generate the least export rent to the US firms experienced deeper tariff cuts in Canada; this result provides evidence of cooperation in trade policies between the US and Canada. Finally, we estimate the effect of the CUSFTA on the intensity of industrial lobbying for trade policy in Canada and find no relationship between preferential trade liberalization and lobbying activity.     

Trade and Location with Horizontal and Vertical Multi-region Firms

We analyse the effect on agglomeration tendencies of allowing multi-region firms in a standard trade and location model, the core–periphery (CP) model developed by Kurgman (1991). The introduction of horizontal multi-region firms mitigates the agglomeration effects found in the CP model by reducing the range of trade costs for which the core–periphery equilibrium occurs. The introduction of vertical multi-region firms that separate the location of headquarters and plants has two counteracting effects. While headquarters exhibit a strong tendency to concentrate, plants tend to spread out. The equilibrium is always asymmetric in spite of the underlying symmetry of the model.     

自由贸易谈判

1、介绍国际经济学中一个最富争议的问题是：实现全球自由贸易最有效的战略是区域主义还是多边主义?根据巴格瓦蒂(Bhagwati,1993)所分析,第一次区域主义浪潮出现于20世纪60年代,但由于美国支持多边主义方式而停止扩展。而自20世纪80年代开始,美国转变立场,支持区域贸易协定。这一转变带来了第二次区域主义浪潮,促成大量自由贸易协定