Samuelson hypothesis,arbitrage activity,and futures term premiums

The Samuelson hypothesis asserts that futures volatility increases as maturity decreases. On the basis of 10 US commodity futures and by capturing the dynamics of the futures volatility terms structure with three factors, we show that in most markets the slope factor is strongly negative in certain periods and at best only weakly negative in other periods. High inventory levels are found to correspond to flatter volatility term structures in seven futures. This finding is consistent with the linkage between carry arbitrage and the Samuelson hypothesis. We also find that a flatter volatility term structure corresponds to lower absolute futures term premiums.     

A generalization of the Samuelson reciprocity relation,the Stolper-Samuelson theorem and the Rybczynski theorem under variable returns to scale

Assuming the Marshallian externalities, a generalization of the Samuelson reciprocity relation, the Stolper–Samuelson theorem and its dual Rybczynski theorem is demonstrated with n commodities and n inputs. Further it is shown that the ‘weak’ Stolper–Samuelson property does not coincide with the ‘strong’ property even when n=2. Then the effect of an own or other commodity price change on a commodity output is examined.     

The Balassa‐Samuelson Hypothesis in Estonia: Oil Shale,Tradable Goods,Regulated Prices and Other Culprits

This paper analyses the Balassa‐Samuelson (B‐S) framework for the case of Estonia using a unique dataset that consists of a 15‐sectoral breakdown of GDP and a five‐digit level CPI disaggregation with 260 items over the period from 1993 to 2002. Unlike the existing literature, the paper focuses on the following four aspects of the phenomenon: (a) data disaggregation, (b) definition of goods tradability, (c) price regulatedness in services and (d) possible heterogeneity across transition countries. It turns out that the first three aspects do matter and, in addition to this, Estonia appears to bear very specific characteristics when compared with other transition countries. A battery of cointegration techniques (DOLS, ARDL, Johansen) shows that productivity is strongly related to relative prices only when regulated prices are controlled for appropriately in the consumer price index and when country‐specific classification is applied to the open and closed sectors. The B‐S effect contributed to CPI by 1 to 1.5 per cent at the outset of the period and by 0.4 to 0.6 per cent in 2002, whereas its potential long‐run impact is estimated to be 1 to 1.2 per cent. Although real appreciation due to the B‐S effect seems higher in the early 1990s, it explains that better real appreciation occurred in recent years.     

Empirical generalizations of demand and supply dynamics for movies

High financial risks in production and marketing, the hedonic nature of products, and the global cultural relevance of movies have encouraged a substantial number of researchers to analyze the success drivers of movies. This research provides empirical generalizations in managing the supply and demand of motion pictures. Prior empirical research either ignored the endogeneity of box office and screen allocation or was based on selective samples, ignoring the large amount of smaller movies released to the market. Using two large and unique samples of all movies released in two major movie markets, the US (2000–2010; n = 2098) and Germany (2002–2010; n = 1360), we extend prior research and present empirical generalizations and new fields of research.     

On the transformation of theorems

Professor W. Ethier (1979) has argued that replacing land by capital in the familiar 2×2 trade model leaves the four basic theorems unaffected, with time-phasing and a positive interest rate. In fact, Ethier's HOS and FPE theorems are different in kind from the traditional ones. The traditional theorems predict certain results in terms of trade-independent data: Ethier's theorems describe equilibrium in terms of factor endowments and intensities defined by equilibrium prices. Hence his theorems do not support his central message that nothing is lost in trade theory by treating capital as if it were homogeneous land.     

Charts and demand: Empirical generalizations on social influence

Social influence on consumer behavior has long been a subject of academic research in various scientific fields. According to research by Salganik, Dodds, and Watts (2006), music demand is a function of social influence between consumers. Market concentration tends to increase when information on demand becomes publicly available. In addition, stochastic agglomeration caused by social influence decreases the predictability of market success. These heavily cited findings challenge traditional market research and provide important insights on the impact of social media and sales charts. We test the stability of their results by replicating the study on music demand in a slightly different setting. We further investigate the generalizability of findings by probing other product categories and different phases of purchase decisions, i.e., interest, consideration, and actual demand. Across all categories and across all dependent variables, we are able to replicate the direction of the effects. We do, however, consistently obtain smaller effect sizes than reported in the original paper.     

Some remarks on the Stolper-Samuelson and Rybczynski theorems

First, this paper provides a necessary and sufficient condition for a weak form of the Stolper-Samuelson criterion in the n×n case. It will be shown that it is a sufficient condition in the uneven case where the number of primary factors is larger than the number of products. Secondly, this paper offers two conditions. Conditions (II) and (III), that are equivalent to Chipman's and Uekawa's weak form of the Stolper-Samuelson criteria, respectively. Our economic interpretations of these conditions are given in the final section by applying a notion of Hicks's imperfect stability.     

Adding budget and premium private labels to standard private labels: Established empirical generalizations,emerging empirical insights,and future research

Standard private labels (PLs) have been the topic of multiple prior reviews. Having been leapfrogged by business practice, the marketing literature has only recently witnessed a surge in interest in multi-tier PL offerings. These typically include a budget and/or premium tier in addition to the omnipresent standard PL tier. This study offers a systematic review of recent empirical findings on budget and premium PLs. Our review is structured along the following four research questions: (i) why do retailers introduce budget and premium PLs, (ii) who buys budget and premium PLs, (iii) what is the nature of the competition among the different tiers and with national brands, and (iv) what are the budget and premium PL tiers’ respective success drivers? While standard PLs still generate the largest volume sales, premium PLs (which are not only characterized by a higher dollar margin but which are also most beneficial to the retailer's image) are currently driving PL growth. Budget PLs, in contrast, are hardly growing in volume share, have a lower absolute and percentage margin, and are found to be less effective in fighting discounters than initially thought. We identify some commonalities across the different tiers but also report on many differences. Various avenues for future research are presented.     

The theorems of international trade in time-phased economies

Numerous recent studies conclude that the basic results of the Heckscher-Ohlin theory are vitiated by ‘capital’: a collection of heterogeneous produced means of production. where production takes time and the interest rate is positive. This paper examines the sensitivity of the four basic theorems to the presence of capital and concludes that all four are impervious. The pessimistic conclusions permeating the literature are consequently due not to the nature of capital but rather to other departures from the two-by-two neoclassical model, departures that can be handled fully in a timeless context and, for the most part, have been.     

The theorems of international trade with joint production

This paper analyzes the implications of joint production for the four basic results of the factor-endowments theory of international trade. The nature of the relationship between commodity prices and factor rewards is first elucidated in detail. It is then shown that, in sharp contrast to prevalent opinion, there is in fact a strong presumption that the basic theorems will continue to hold in essence. The paper then considers applications and extensions of the analysis to higher dimensions.     

The theorems of international trade under generalized uncertainty

A number of authors have extended the theorems of international trade to the case where the output of the various production processes (for pre-set inputs) is random. But they limited their analysis to a very special type of technological randomness known in the financial literature as ‘scalar uncertainty’. The purpose of the present paper is to extend the theorems to a much wider class of random neoclassical production functions. It is assumed that there exists a unified stock market worldwide.     

Modeling advertising impact at campaign level: Empirical generalizations relative to long-term advertising profit contribution and its antecedents

Research on advertising effectiveness is focused on sales and provides few empirical generalizations on profitability and its antecedents. To fill this gap, we develop an econometric model to capture the impact of advertising at campaign level, using retail panel data coupled with TV audience tracking data. Our study involves 31 brands from six packaged goods categories observed weekly and nationally over 4 years and representing 264 TV campaigns. Although we confirm empirical generalizations on the capacity of advertising to increase sales, we establish a different picture for profitability. Only 11 % of campaigns make a positive contribution to profit. Advertising is more profitable for challengers and medium brands, whereas leaders and small brands (recent or established) have a lower profitability. Advertising intensity in the category and campaign carry-over emerge as the strongest (respectively) negative and positive drivers of profitability. The antecedents of carry-over are also analyzed and discussed.     

The influence of ad-evoked feelings on brand evaluations: Empirical generalizations from consumer responses to more than 1000 TV commercials

It has been observed that ad-evoked feelings exert a positive influence on brand attitudes. To investigate the empirical generalizability of this phenomenon, we analyzed the responses of 1576 consumers to 1070 TV commercials from more than 150 different product categories. The findings suggest five empirical generalizations. First, ad-evoked feelings indeed have a substantial impact on brand evaluations, even under conditions that better approximate real marketplace settings than past studies did. Second, these effects are both direct and indirect, with the indirect effects largely linked to changes in attitude toward the ad. Third, these effects do not depend on the level of involvement associated with the product category. However, fourth, the effects are more pronounced for hedonic products than utilitarian products. Finally, these effects do not depend on whether the products are durables, nondurables, or services, or whether the products are search goods or experience goods.     

Estimation and testing of portfolio Value‐at‐Risk based on L‐comoment matrices

This study employs L‐comoments introduced by Serfling and Xiao (2007) into portfolio Value‐at‐Risk estimation through two models: the Cornish–Fisher expansion (Draper, N. R. & Tierney, D. E., 1973) and modified VaR (Zangari, P., 1996). Backtesting outcomes indicate that modified VaR outperforms and L‐comoments give better estimates of portfolio skewness and excess kurtosis than do classical central moments in modeling heavy‐tailed distributions. © 2009 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 30:897–908, 2010     

Nano-economics,spinoffs, and the wealth of regions

The historical evolution of four prominent industry clusters is compared: automobiles in Detroit, Michigan, tires in Akron, Ohio, semiconductors in Silicon Valley, California, and cotton garments in Dhaka, Bangladesh. Detailed data are collected concerning the intellectual and geographic origins of entrants into the clusters and other regions to probe the mechanisms underlying geographic clustering. The main mechanism at work in the four clusters involves employees leaving established firms to found their own firms or shape new entrants in their industry. Questions and policy implications related to the spinoff mechanism and the mobility of employees are discussed.