Economic Policy Uncertainty and Investor Sentiment: linear and nonlinear causality analysis

In this paper, we study the relationship between economic policy uncertainty and investor sentiment. US data were analysed based on linear and non-linear Granger causality analysis. We reveal the obvious impact that economic policy uncertainty has on the investor sentiment, which can be explained by the real option and financial constraint theory.     

Oil shocks,policy uncertainty and stock returns in China

This paper examines the interdependence of China's policy uncertainty, the global oil market and stock market returns in China. A structural VAR model is estimated that shows that a positive shock to economic policy uncertainty in China has a delayed negative effect on global oil production, real oil prices and real stock market returns. Shocks to oil market‐specific demand significantly raise China's economic policy uncertainty and reduce the real stock market returns. As measured by a spillover index, the interdependence between these variables has been rising since 2003 as China's influence in the oil market has increased. An equivalent spillover index calculated for the US is smaller and has been largely flat over time.     

Financial development,trade openness and economic growth in African countries: New insights from a panel causality approach

This paper examines the causal relationship between financial development and economic growth for 21 African countries within a framework which also accounts for international trade. We develop a financial development index based on four different financial development indicators and apply the panel bootstrapped approach to Granger causality. The empirical results show limited support for the finance-led growth and the trade-led growth hypotheses. The results imply that recent attempts at financial development and trade liberalization do not seem to have made a significant impact on growth.     

Linkages in international stock markets: evidence from a classification procedure

In this article, we propose a new approach to evaluate the predictable components in stock indices using a boosting-based classification technique, and we use this method to examine causality among the three main stock market indices in the world during periods of large positive and negative price changes. The empirical evidence seems to indicate that the Standard & Poors 500 index contains incremental information that is not present in either the FTSE 100 index (Financial Times Stock Exchange Index) or the Nikkei 225 index, and that could be used to enhance the predictability of the large positive and negative returns in the three main stock market indices in the world. This in turn would suggest a causality relationship running from the Standard & Poors 500 index to both the FTSE 100 and the Nikkei 225 indices.     

Economic growth and financial development in Asian countries: A bootstrap panel Granger causality analysis

This study using Kónya (2006) [Kónya, L. (2006). Exports and growth: Granger causality analysis on OECD countries with a panel data approach. Economic Modelling 23, 978–992.] method of bootstrap panel Granger causality analysis, which considers the issues of cross-sectional dependency and slope heterogeneity among countries investigated simultaneously, analyzes the causality between financial development and economic growth among ten Asian countries surveyed during period 1980 to 2007. We find that the direction of causality between financial development and economic growth is sensitive to the financial development variables used in the ten Asian countries examined in this work. Moreover, our findings support the supply-leading hypothesis, as many financial development variables lead economic growth in some of the ten Asian countries surveyed, especially in China.     

R&D,productivity, and exports: Plant-level evidence from Indonesia

This study examines the relation between productivity and exports in Indonesian manufacturing firms by taking account the endogenous choice of R&D. We first examine the determinants of R&D activity and find that exporting activity contributes positively to plants' R&D activity, while multinational corporate do not have a higher R&D propensity. The simultaneous estimates on the interrelation of R&D, productivity, and export show that R&D has a positive impact on both productivity and exports, suggesting the importance of R&D to Indonesian economic growth. It suggests also a two-way causality between productivity and exports, implying the coexistence of self-selection and learning-by-exporting effects in Indonesian manufacturing sector.     

Economic policy uncertainty and mergers and acquisitions: Evidence from China

This study examines the relationship between economic policy uncertainty and mergers and acquisitions (M&As) in China. Using all listed Chinese companies on the Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges as well as 4188 ​M&A deals from the period of 2001–2018, we show that Chinese firms are more likely to make acquisitions during periods of high economic policy uncertainty, which contradicts the behavior of US firms. We further show that state-owned enterprises (SOEs) are less likely than non-SOEs to make acquisitions during periods of high economic policy uncertainty. SOEs are less likely to use only cash for their acquisitions during periods of high economic policy uncertainty. These results indicate the prudence of SOEs regarding acquisitions relative to non-SOEs during periods of high economic policy uncertainty. Moreover, acquisitions during periods of high economic policy uncertainty are associated with an increase in shareholder wealth for acquirers, and this wealth effect is more pronounced for SOEs.     

Can M&A activities act as a predictor of the performance of economic growth or stock prices?

One of the important issues with regard to the relationship between M&As (mergers and acquisitions) and economic growth or stock prices is whether such activities can act as a predictor of these two variables' performance, or whether these variables have resulted in significant impacts on M&A activities. The aim of this paper is to use the method proposed in Kónya (2006) to carry out a causality test among M&A activities, economic growth and stock prices, because the causal relationships that may be uncovered by this would be meaningful for both policymakers and stockholders. This paper uses quarterly data from six OECD countries for the period from April 1980 to March 2010. The bootstrap panel Granger causality test that this work applies also considers cross-sectional dependency and slope heterogeneity simultaneously. The findings of the paper are as follows. There is significant, one-way causality from stock prices to M&A activities, and thus changes in stock prices lead M&A activities. With real GDP as the control variable, for all the countries surveyed, except Australia, stock prices lead M&A activities. As for the impact that economic growth has on M&A activities, we conclude that, when using stock prices as the control variable, there is almost no lead-lag relationship between economic growth and M&A activities, except for in Japan.     

The determinants of foreign direct investment in Malaysia: A case for electrical and electronic industry

This study attempts to analyse the determinants of inward FDI in the electrical and electronic (E&E) industry in Malaysia using bounds test approach for the 1980–2008 period. It is found that GDP, real exchange rate, financial development, corporate income tax, macroeconomic uncertainty and social uncertainty factors significantly affect inward FDI in E&E sector in Malaysia. Empirical results indicate that GDP, real exchange rate, financial development and macroeconomic uncertainty are positively related to inward FDI in E&E sector in the long run. However, corporate income tax and social uncertainty have a negative impact on inward FDI in E&E sector. Furthermore, the Granger causality results also indicate that all explanatory variables Granger-cause FDI in the long-run, but in the short-run only macroeconomic and social uncertainties Granger-cause FDI. The impact of social uncertainty is found to be greater than macroeconomic uncertainty. Thus, foreign investors in E&E sector seem to be more concern about the level of social security and safety when choosing their investment destination.     

The Canadian underground and measured economies: Granger causality results

Using new time-series data for the size of the Canadian underground economy, the relationship between unreported and measured GDP in that country is examined. Granger causality tests are conducted, with a proper allowance for the non-stationarity of the data. It is found that there is clear evidence of such causality from measured GDP to ‘hidden’ output, but only very mild evidence of Granger causality in the reverse direction. This result supports similar evidence for New Zealand reported by the first author, and has several interesting policy implications.     

Time-frequency comovement among green financial assets and cryptocurrency uncertainties

The high energy consumption and carbon footprints have raised environmental and sustainable concerns of green investors and policymakers. This study explores comovements between three green and socially responsible financial assets, S&P global clean energy index (GCEI), S&P green bonds index (GB), DJ sustainability world index (DJSWI) and four cryptocurrency uncertainty/attention indices cryptocurrency policy uncertainty index, Central Bank Digital Currencies Uncertainty Index, Central Bank Digital Currencies Attentions Index and Index of Cryptocurrency Environmental Attention using the bivariate wavelet coherence approach. The findings show that GCEI, GB, DJSWI returns have consistent positive comovement with all cryptocurrency uncertainty/attention indices in the medium-term, suggesting their time-varying leading role. Evidence of negative coherences shows that higher cryptocurrency uncertainties/attentions lead to lower green financial asset returns, reflecting the adverse impact of higher uncertainties/attention on the trust of green and sustainable investors. The above empirical findings offer up-to-date insights for guiding policymakers, and regulators, enabling them in environmental policy development. Furthermore, socially responsible investors can make better investment judgments by considering the environmental concerns in the cryptocurrency marketplaces.     

An investigation into the interdependence of global water indices: a VAR analysis

We investigate the extent and manner of equity price interdependence among four water indices – World Water Index, S-Network Global Water index (S-Net), S&P Global Water Index (S&P) and MSCI ACWI Water Utilities Index (MSCI ACWI) using the vector autoregression (VAR) framework for the period 2004–2014. We also employ methods of Granger causalities, variance decomposition and impulse responses. We find Granger causality significance between S-Net and MSCI ACWI and S-Net and S&P indices at the 1% level of significance, suggesting that the indices are significantly linked. Further, S-Net is the most influential index amongst them in the forecast variance that can be accounted by S-Net at level of 55.75%. Our study indicates that the four water indices are interdependent and related, so the water indices are influenced by movements in the other water indices.     

Tax cuts and enterprises’ R&D intensity: Evidence from a natural experiment in China

This paper studies the impact of tax cuts on enterprises’ R&D intensity. We use a natural experiment involving China’s business tax changing to value-added tax (“BT to VAT”) to identify any causality. The results reveal that this tax reform has prompted enterprises to increase their research and development (R&D) investment. Specifically, a stronger ability to transfer tax, results in this change having a more significant promotional effect on enterprises’ R&D intensity. Further analysis demonstrates that firms with different ownership types and in different industries respond differently to the “BT to VAT” policy. Our findings are only significant for non-state-owned and other modern service enterprises. This paper provides a theoretical and empirical basis for detailed analyses of the effects of “BT to VAT” policy, particularly the government’s subsequent improvement to the tax reform policy, to further stimulate enterprise investments in R&D as well as industrial upgrading.     

Cross-country evidence on the relationship between regulations and the development of the life insurance sector

Using a global sample, this study sketches the impact of insurance regulations on the life insurance sector, revealing a significant negative association between supervisory control on policy conditions of life annuities as well as pension products and the development of the industry. A similar inverse relation is observed between the index of capital requirements and insurance development. These results hold when we control for demographic factors, economic factors, religious inclination, culture, as well as for other relevant regulations. We also find some evidence that while the overall supervisory power does not matter, the ability to intervene at an early stage could have a positive effect on insurance development. Additionally, the impact of some regulations appears to differ between advanced and developing countries.     

On the impact of innovation and inequality in economic growth

We present robust results on the empirical relationship among income inequality, innovation, and economic growth for a panel dataset of 74 countries over the period 1996–2014. We estimate pairwise causality tests to show that there is bidirectional causality between GDP per capita and R&D, while R&D causes the Gini index of income inequality, and it causes human capital. Allowing coefficients to be different across cross-sections of countries, we get in any case a pairwise bi-directionality. By dynamic panel data estimations, when regressing R&D on GDP per capita, we obtain a threshold value of 0.16% of R&D such that for values above it there is economic growth. While regressing R&D on the Gini index, we get a threshold of 0.10% of R&D above which, the income distribution begins to improve. Finally, we estimate a growth equation that depends on R&D, income inequality, and physical capital. We obtain two thresholds, one of 38.79 for the Gini (above which the economic growth decreases), and one of 0.06% for R&D such that above it, economic growth is rising.     

The role of news-based uncertainty indices in predicting oil markets: a hybrid nonparametric quantile causality method

A recent strand in the literature emphasizes the role of news-based economic policy uncertainty (EPU) and equity market uncertainty (EMU) as drivers of oil price movements. Against this backdrop, this paper uses a kth-order nonparametric quantile causality test, to analyse whether EPU and EMU predict stock returns and volatility. Based on daily data covering the period of 2 January 1986 to 8 December 2014, we find that, for oil returns, EPU and EMU have strong predictive power over the entire distribution barring regions around the median, but for volatility, the predictability virtually covers the entire distribution, with some exceptions in the tails. In other words, predictability based on measures of uncertainty is asymmetric over the distribution of oil returns and its volatility.     

The interdependence of global oil price,China's stock price and economic policy uncertainty

This investigation examines the interaction among global oil price (OP), China's stock price (SP) and China's economic policy uncertainty (EPU) during the period of 2005:01 and 2017:12. A rolling window Toda‐Yamamoto causality method shows a complex time‐varying relationship. Bilateral causalities between these variables mostly accompany by sharp fluctuations in global or China's economy. Taking into account the inherent consistency of this time‐varying relation, the causal steps approach shows EPU follows a partial but time‐varying mediator process during crisis periods, which suggests EPU is one of mediator variables in this transmission mechanism. The mediator role of EPU in the transmission mechanism of OP and SP has not been paid enough attention before. Our findings provide a new direction for investors from the perspective of policy changes to deal with risks caused by OP and SP fluctuations especially when the financial market experiencing huge fluctuations.     

Cointegration and detectable linear and nonlinear causality: analysis using the London Metal Exchange lead contract

This study applies linear and nonlinear Granger causality tests to examine the dynamic relation between London Metal Exchange (LME) cash prices and three possible predictors. The analysis uses matched quarterly inventory, UK Treasury bill interest rates, futures prices and cash prices for the commodity lead traded on the LME. The effects of cointegration on both linear and nonlinear Granger causality tests is also examined. When cointegration is not modelled, evidence is found of both linear and nonlinear causality between cash prices and analysed predictor variables. However, after controlling for cointegration, evidence of significant nonlinear causality is no longer found. These results contribute to the empirical literature on commodity price forecasting by highlighting the relationship between cointegration and detectable linear and nonlinear causality. The importance of interest rate and inventory as well as futures price in forecasting cash prices is also illustrated. Failure to detect significant nonlinearity after controlling for cointegration may also go some way to explaining the reason for the disappointing forecasting performances of many nonlinear models in the general finance literature. It may be that the variables are correct, but the functional form is overly complex and a standard VAR or VECM may often apply.     

Spillover Effects of Real and Nominal Uncertainties in India

This paper examines the spillover effects and the causality between inflation, output growth and its uncertainties for India. Using monthly data for the period from April 1980 to April 2011, we estimated a bi-variate GARCH in mean with BEKK representations. This study differs from the earlier works where the parameters in the BEKK representations are estimated individually and the inferences are drawn on the basis of the individual lagged variance, covariance, and error terms from the respective equations. The empirical evidence suggests that inflation uncertainty seems to have significant negative impact on output growth and positive impact on output uncertainty and there is a positive influence of output uncertainty on the inflation. More importantly, there are spillovers and volatility transmission effects between the macroeconomic uncertainties where the volatility in output growth is significantly influenced by the shocks and volatility in inflation.

     

Asymmetric causality using frequency domain and time-frequency domain (wavelet) approaches

Previous research that used asymmetric Granger causality tests relied upon data from the same time domain. In this paper we extend those tests theoretically to the frequency domain. We then apply these new tests to analyze causal link between nominal exchange rate and inflation in G6 and BRICS countries. For sensitivity analysis, we also apply time-frequency domain (wavelet) method in the context of asymmetric causality. Empirical results reveal that inflation causes the exchange rate in most of the countries in our sample. Our findings imply that anti-inflationary policies in these countries could stabilize the exchange rates and increase international confidence in attracting foreign investment which is important for sustained economic growth.