Cognitive abilities and behavioral biases

We use a simple, three-item test for cognitive abilities to investigate whether established behavioral biases that play a prominent role in behavioral economics and finance are related to cognitive abilities. We find that higher test scores on the cognitive reflection test of Frederick [Frederick, S., 2005. Cognitive reflection and decision-making. Journal of Economic Perspectives 19, 25–42] indeed are correlated with lower incidences of the conjunction fallacy and conservatism in updating probabilities. Test scores are also significantly related to subjects’ time and risk preferences. Test scores have no influence on the amount of anchoring, although there is evidence of anchoring among all subjects. Even if incidences of most biases are lower for people with higher cognitive abilities, they still remain substantial.     

Worker heterogeneity and labor market volatility in matching models

Shimer demonstrated that aggregate productivity shocks in a standard matching model cause fluctuations in key labor market statistics—such as the job-finding rate, the vacancy/unemployment ratio, and the unemployment rate—that are too small by an order of magnitude [Shimer, R., 2005. The cyclical behavior of equilibrium unemployment and vacancies. American Economic Review 95 (1) 25–49]. This paper shows that when the standard model is extended to allow for worker heterogeneity, it exhibits considerably greater volatility. In the model, marginal workers, whose productivity only slightly exceeds the value of their alternative use of time, constitute a disproportionate share of unemployment on average, and that share rises when aggregate conditions deteriorate. These composition effects cause firms to open fewer vacancies during downturns.     

Behavioral heterogeneity in the Australian housing market

We propose a heterogeneous agent model (HAM) of four groups of investors with Markov chain regime-dependent beliefs for the housing market. Within the Markov switching framework, we take into account how heterogeneous investors shift their trading behaviour in response to changes in housing market conditions. The model is estimated and compared with the benchmark rational expectation models using the Australian housing market data from 1982Q1 to 2013Q2. We find evidence of within- and between-group heterogeneity in the Australian housing market. We show that HAM with Markov switching beliefs provides a better in-sample estimation efficiency and outperforms the conventional rational expectation models in terms of out-of-sample prediction.     

Recurrent unemployment,welfare benefits and heterogeneity

The objective of this paper is to investigate the causes of the recurrences of individuals in unemployment during benefit periods. So as to attain this objective, we use administrative data from the Spanish Employment Agency to estimate a duration model with multiple spells that allows for unemployment state dependence through lagged unemployment duration in order to distinguish the heterogeneity and scarring effects. We find that an increase in the duration of previous unemployment benefit periods lengthens the expected duration of future unemployment benefit periods. True state dependence and heterogeneity, intensity of job search and local labour market conditions are among the elements that explain this unemployment state dependence.     

External heterogeneity and its impact on open innovation performance

While current research commonly finds there may be an optimum overall level of search depth commitment at the apex of an inverted U relationship, it says comparatively little about the optimal allocation of search depth between competing search channels. Neither does it explore in depth the qualitative differences in the breadth of different external search channels. Here we conceptually and empirically explore the idea of the intra-search channel allocation problem using the concept of heterogeneity in search depth and breadth. We explore how variations in the distribution of open innovation search depth and breadth influnence innovation performance and in doing so contribute to a more fine grained conceptual understanding of external innovation. We do so an emerging market context, namely China. Our contributions are therefore twofold, involving both conceptual and empirical elements.     

企业异质性、贸易理论与经验研究:综述

贸易的企业异质性理论正逐渐兴起,本文围绕该理论的拓展思维和微观基础进行系统述评;不同于传统贸易理论的行业间资源配置分析,异质性理论强调要素在企业间的配置从而通过效率改善实现福利优化。而基于微观生产率差异的理论模型强调企业出口的自我淘汰机制,这一核心基础改变了传统贸易理论的基础动因、模式和福利收益。最后,异质性理论发展和国际经验考察对我国当前具有重要启示。     

Trust and reciprocity behavior and behavioral forecasts: Individuals versus group-representatives

Individuals are often given the responsibility of making decisions on behalf of a group or an organization. However, little is known about preferences or behavior in such contexts. In an adapted trust game, I examine whether the perspectives and behavior of group-representatives differ from those of the same individuals in an analogous situation. Group-representatives are given the responsibility of unilaterally and privately making a decision on behalf of a three-person group. Results from both the main and the follow-up studies show that people trust less and reciprocate less as group-representatives, and thus demonstrate that the interindividual-intergroup discontinuity effect not only exists in group behavior but also in individual behavior of group-representatives. Moreover, results show that trusting behavior is driven by reciprocity expectations, while reciprocating behavior is not sensitive to the first mover's behavior, i.e., the level of trust experienced.     

Incumbent heterogeneity in creative destruction: a study of three Dutch newspaper organisations

With a study of three Dutch newspaper organisations, we identify four dimensions along which incumbent response to discontinuous change may differ: response timing (early or late), size of commitment to the new business (big or small), progression of commitment to the new business (continuous or intermittent), and approaches to bridging the capability gap (internal development, strategic alliance, or acquisition). These response strategies are neither mutually exclusive nor static, and their relative focus differs over time as well as across incumbents. Such inter-temporal and cross-sectional variations in response strategies are influenced by various incumbent-specific characteristics and shaped by interrelated contingencies internal or external to incumbents.     

Quality heterogeneity and global economic growth

This paper develops a fully endogenous, variety-expansion growth model with firm-specific quality heterogeneity, limit pricing, and an endogenous distribution of markups. Firms with high-quality products engage in exporting, firms with intermediate-quality products serve the domestic market, and inefficient firms with low-quality products exit the market. Trade liberalization, measured by a reduction in trade costs or a decline in foreign market entry costs, generates a reallocation of resources from low-quality to high-quality products and exit of inefficient firms. However, it has ambiguous effects on the average global quality level, long-run growth, and welfare. An increase in the rate of population growth or in the intensity of trade-related knowledge spillovers accelerates economic growth. The laissez-faire equilibrium is inefficient, and this leaves room for welfare-improving government intervention.     

The impact of endowment heterogeneity and origin on contributions in best-shot public good games

Economists and psychologists have long argued the origin of wealth influences individual behavior. In a previous study (Cherry et al., 2005), we found the origin of endowment did not significantly affect behavior in linear public good games with summation contribution technology. In such games, however, both Nash behavior (everybody gives nothing) and social optimal behavior (everybody gives the entire endowment) call for symmetric levels of contributions. Results from this new study indicate that the origin of wealth might matter in more asymmetric situations, such as in a best-shot public good game with heterogeneous groups. Electronic Supplementary Material Supplementary material is available in the online version of this article at . JEL Classification C72, C92, H41     

How serious is the aggregation problem? An empirical illustration

Heterogeneity in consumer behaviour may create problems with aggregation across consumers. If so, we may not be able to make correct inferences about behaviour based on aggregated data. However, using micro estimates to predict aggregate demand responses to policy changes may also create a bias if not aggregated properly. This may sound like a Catch 22 situation, but it is not, as it is possible to calculate both micro and aggregate demand responses based on microdata. The size of the aggregation bias is an empirical question. In this article, we show how to calculate theoretically consistent aggregate demand responses. We use both micro and macro data for Norwegian household electricity consumption to illustrate the magnitude and direction of different aggregation biases. We find considerable aggregation biases, in particular, when estimating with macro data.     

On the pooling of cross-sectional and time-series data in the presence of heteroskedasticity

We analyze the effect of heteroskedasticity on log-linear aggregation, and its implications for the pooling of cross-section and aggregate time series data. An empirical analysis of food consumption, based on US family budget survey and aggregate time series data, illustrates.     

Product differentiation, firm heterogeneity and international trade: Exploring the Alchian–Allen effect

In a model of international trade with horizontally differentiated goods, increasing returns and monopolistically competitive markets, this paper proposes that the degree of differentiation in a product mix–defined as the ratio of the number of varieties to the total value of imports–can be regarded as another aspect of quality. Furthermore, this paper draws a parallel to the Alchian–Allen effect and shows that, when firms are heterogeneous in either fixed or variable costs, the degree of differentiation is increasing in per unit transportation costs.     

Foreign direct investment,international trade,and firm heterogeneity

We present an asymmetric model with firm heterogeneity and foreign direct investment (FDI) from a developed country to a developing country. We found that the successful entry firms could be sorted from highest to lowest according to productivity as reimport firms, FDI firms, export firms, and domestic firms. We also found that FDI decreases (increases) the gross national income of the developed (developing) country, but it can either increase or decrease the world income according to the level of the relative propensity to spend. In addition, we demonstrated that FDI influences welfare through variations in average price, national income, and the number of types of goods.     

中国公众投资者信息需求之探索性研究

公众投资者在获取上市公司信息方面通常处于弱势地位。本文旨在通过问卷调查 ,研究中国公众投资者信息需求的特点 ,对目前信息供给状况的态度 ,以及他们与国外公众投资者在信息需求和决策变量选择上是否存在差异等。研究发现 ,信息的真实性、及时性和充分披露是我国公众投资者认为最重要的质量特征。为此 ,建议通过采取完善与信息披露相关的法律法规、加强监管、严厉处罚等手段 ,促进上市公司及会计师事务所等中介机构披露真实、及时的信息 ;鼓励上市公司更多地作出诸如公司未来收益潜力预测等前瞻性信息的自愿披露。     

The effect of external partner heterogeneity on open innovation: the moderating role of the technological regime

There is widespread agreement that open innovation (OI) is strongly influenced by external partner heterogeneity. While previous studies have examined partner heterogeneity using quantitative analysis, the implications of a weighted assignment using an external partner heterogeneity index have received less attention. The purpose of this study is to develop a modified partner heterogeneity model. Specifically, using a questionnaire survey of Chinese firms, we develop a new method to measure partner organisational heterogeneity (POH). Then, the moderating factors of an industry's technological environment, termed the technological regime, are introduced. The empirical analysis shows that the technological regime is positively correlated with POH and OI performance. Hence, an advanced technological regime improves POH and OI performance by incorporating external resources and increasing innovation potential.     

Compensation payments for habitat heterogeneity: Existence, efficiency, and fairness considerations

Compensation payments for voluntary conservation measures have become an important tool for biodiversity conservation worldwide. Each year substantial financial resources are spent on such measures, particularly in the context of agri-environmental schemes. In Europe, a debate has started on whether this money is spent effectively. In response to this debate it has been suggested that a portfolio of measures leading to habitat heterogeneity be implemented. Although payments for heterogeneous conservation measures have been analysed in the literature, it has never been questioned that payments can be designed in a way that encourages enough land users to carry out each conservation measure within a portfolio of measures. The purpose of this paper is to demonstrate that such payments do not always exist. Moreover, in cases where payments for habitat heterogeneity exist the payment scheme may require overcompensation of the land users, posing a limit to both efficiency and fairness considerations.     

Not everybody prefers organic food: unobserved heterogeneity in U.S. consumers’ preference for organic apple and milk

Despite organic food’s growing market share and the often-found premiums for organic foods in willingness-to-pay studies, the ultimate size of the organic food market remains unclear. Due to perceived taste, safety or appearance, some people may, in fact, not prefer organic. This study uses data from choice experiments to determine preference for organic versus conventional milk and apples. Using latent class and random parameter models, nontrivial shares (at least 33%) of consumers in both markets are not willing to pay a premium for organic. These results have implications for food marketers but also for economists modelling the organic food sector, which typically assume vertical differentiation.     

Price equilibrium in address models of product differentiation: unit-elastic demand

Summary. I present a class of address models of product differentiation with unit-elastic individual demand and show the existence of Nash equilibrium in prices under assumptions on utility functions and the taste and income heterogeneity across consumers. This paper complements the work by Caplin and Nalebuff (1991, Econometrica), who analyze unit demand models of product differentiation. Received: December 28, 1998; revised version: September 5, 2001     

Quasi-linear preferences in the macroeconomy: Indeterminacy,heterogeneity and the representative consumer

We use aggregation theory to investigate the link between one-consumer and multi-consumer economies under a quasi-linear class of preferences. Our study is carried out in the context of the neoclassical growth model. The quasi-linear preferences considered are additive in consumption and leisure and linear in leisure. We first show that in a homogeneous agents economy, the individual hours worked are not uniquely determined. We then demonstrate that the indeterminacy can be resolved by introducing heterogeneity. For example, idiosyncratic shocks to productivities or imperfect substitutability of labor restore the uniqueness of equilibrium. As a special case, our analysis includes the indivisible labor model by Hansen (1985).JEL Classification: C73, D90, E21We are grateful to Morten Ravn for his guidance. We have benefited from the comments of an anonymous referee, Jordi Caballé, Finn Kydland, Franck Portier, Michael Reiter, Xavier Sala-i-Martin, William Schworm and Andrew Scott. Any remaining errors are ours. This research was supported by the Instituto Valenciano de Investigaciones Económicas and the Ministerio de Ciencia y Tecnología de España, the Ramón y Cajal program, and BEC 2001-0535.