TRENDS IN POVERTY IN THE UNITED STATES, 1967–84

The sensitivity of movements in poverty to the method used in measuring poverty is examined. The use of various poverty indices, and of various ways of setting the poverty lines, does not affect the conclusion that poverty followed a U-shaped pattern from 1967 to 1984. A model for a family's income/needs ratio is estimated and used to explore the factors that might lie behind this pattern. The results suggest that changes over time in the location of the income distribution are most relevant to the corresponding changes in poverty. Changes in the structure of families, and in labor supply within families, have also been relevant to recent movements in poverty.     

POTENTIAL GNP IN THE UNITED STATES, 1948–80

Potential gross national product (GNP) is a measure of the aggregate supply capability of an economy, or the amount of output that could be expected at full employment. Such a measure of output at constant rates of labor and capital utilization is useful as a benchmark for economic performance, calculation of the full employment surplus as an indicator of fiscal policy, and in the projection of unemployment rates. Potential GNP for the United States is estimated for the years 1948–77, and projected for 1978–80. The calculations use a variable benchmark for the full-employment unemployment rate, based on the changing age-sex composition of the labor force, and a constant benchmark for the utilization of fixed capital. A framework for separation of productivity into trend, cycle, and irregular components is developed, and then estimated for the 1948–77 period, using quarterly data. The relationships between various age- and sex-specific unemployment rates are also estimated in construction of the variable unemployment benchmark.     

AN EXTENDED MEASURE OF GOVERNMENT PRODUCT: PRELIMINARY RESULTS FOR THE UNITED STATES, 1946–76

Expanded measures of government output include imputed values of the services of government capital, uncompensated factor services of military draftees and jurors, and net revaluations, as well as the usually included compensation of employees. The government output is allocated to consumption, capital formation and product intermediate to other sectors, on the basis of its classification in ten broad functions: defense, space research, education, health, sanitation, transportation, parks and recreation, natural resources, welfare, and general administration. Final government product in 1976, including $116 billion in defense and $125 billion in education, amounted to $450.5 billion, which was 26.5 percent of the 1976 GNP. This final government product corresponded to the BEA measure of $191.6 billion.
Total capital formation related to government is defined to include both government product which enters into capital formation in other sectors and government expenditures for its own capital accumulation. After a more rapid rate of growth in previous years, this total government capital formation in the United States in 1976 is found to exceed gross private domestic investment. A significant but only minor portion was found to be constituted by government expenditures for capital goods and change in government inventories. Investment in research and development, health and, particularly, education and training, were dominant components in capital formation related to government.     

TRENDS IN HOUSEHOLD WEALTH IN THE UNITED STATES, 1962–83 AND 1983–89

Using the 1983 and 1989 Surveys of Consumer Finances, I find evidence of sharply increasing house-hold wealth inequality over this period. Whereas mean wealth increased by 23 percent in real terms, median wealth grew by only 8 percent. The share of the top one-half percentile rose by five percentage points, while the wealth of the bottom two quintiles showed an absolute decline. The Gini coefficient increased from 0.80 to 0.84. Almost all the growth in real wealth accrued to the top 20 percent of wealthholders. In contrast, the degree of wealth inequality was almost identical in 1983 as in 1962, and real wealth growth was more evenly distributed across the wealth distribution. There is also evidence that the sharp increase in wealth inequality from 1983 to 1989 was due to a correspondingly sharp rise in income inequality, the increase of stock prices relative to housing prices, and relatively slow inflation.     

TRENDS IN THE CONCENTRATION OF PERSONAL WEALTH IN THE UNITED STATES, 1958 TO 1976

The trend in the concentration of U.S. wealth from 1958 through 1976 is examined in some detail and summary data are used to extend the period over which the trend is observed back to 1922. The data suggests a long-run secular decline in the concentration of U.S. wealth with a rather sharp decline in 1976, the last year for which measurements were made. Although the secular decline in wealth concentration is supported by numerous observations across 50 years, the precipitous decline measured between 1972 and 1976 should be interpreted with caution because it undoubtedly reflects the substantial downward revaluation which occurred in the stock market from 1972 (most recent previous observation) to 1976. This is not to argue that wealth holders at the top of the distribution were not made significantly less affluent by the revaluation, but that the 1976 observation includes a large cyclical component. Future observations which include the subsequent upward revaluation in the stock market are expected to show levels of concentration comparable to or only slightly below those for 1958 through 1972.     

A STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF PRODUCTIVITY IN SELECTED SERVICE INDUSTRIES IN THE UNITED STATES, 1939–1963

This paper examines differentials in output, employment and productivity across seventeen service industries in the United States from 1939 to 1963. Included are 9 retail trades and 8 services mostly from the personal service group. The industries chosen were those for which it was possible to obtain from available data reasonably comparable measures of output and input for selected years since 1939. Also, they are industries for which it is possible to calculate a measure of real output that is not based on labor input.
Sixteen of the industries show positive rates of change of real output per man. Thus there appears to be no basis for assuming that productivity cannot or does not increase in industries providing services. However, the rate of increase for the group as a whole was not as rapid as in manufacturing or in goods production as a whole.
The data for the seventeen industries give strong support to the hypothesis of a positive correlation between industry rates of growth and rates of change of productivity. The correlations are of the same order of magnitude as those found by other investigators in studies of manufacturing industries.
The coefficient of correlation between growth of output per man and growth of output is .93; between growth of output per man and growth of employment it is .54 for 1939–1963. The comparable coefficients for the 1948–1963 period are .70 and .13.
The results also parallel those reported for manufacturing in one other respect, namely, the absence of any correlation between changes in output per man and changes in compensation per man.
The paper concludes with a discussion of the problems encountered in measuring changes in real output in these industries and presents some alternative estimates based on different concepts and different sources.     

HUMAN CAPITAL INVESTMENT IN HEALTH: A MEASUREMENT FRAMEWORK AND ESTIMATES FOR THE UNITED STATES, 1952–78

Lack of a conceptual basis for measuring human capital investment in health has hampered efforts to expand national accounting systems to include human capital investment. This paper presents a conceptual basis for developing estimates of this health investment, an estimation methodology consistent with the conceptual basis, and preliminary estimates for the United States for 1952-78. While much work remains to be done before comprehensive estimates of investment in health are achieved, it is clear that previous estimates based on answers to the question, “What improves health?” have included some inappropriate expenditures while excluding others that should be included. The conceptual basis presented here leads to a methodology for separating health care costs (not the costs of illness) into maintenance and gross investment. Gross investment can be further separated into net investment and the sum of damages and depreciation but empirical implementation of this step is not attempted here.     

ACCRUED CAPITAL GAINS, PERSONAL INCOME AND SAVING IN THE UNITED STATES, 1948–1964

Capital gains are an important source of personal income in the United States but they are not included in the national accounts or the official estimate of personal income and saving. Individuals report their realized gains for tax purposes but the economic theorist would include both realized and accrued gains in income. National income theorists continue to debate whether capital gains should be included in income but, because of the many conceptual and statistical problems involved in estimating capital gains, no satisfactory estimates have been developed. Consequently, the debate has stayed mainly at the theoretical level. This paper deals with the methodology of estimating accrued capital gains. A simple analytical model is developed to estimate capital gains from data on market value and net acquisitions of an asset but the model can be adapted to incorporate asset prices directly. It is shown that the methods used for estimating accrued gains in the past are special cases of the model proposed in the paper. The model is then used for estimating gains accruing to individuals in the United States on their holdings of corporate stock, real estate and livestock during 1948–1964.
During this period accrued gains have amounted to roughly five times the realized gains reported for tax purposes; corporate stock and real estate are the most important sources of capital gains and corporate stock accounts for almost two-thirds of all accrued gains. The paper goes on to examine the implications of these estimates for the existing series on personal income and saving in the United States. The inclusion of accrued gains would increase the variance in the official estimates but personal saving is affected more than personal income. The paper concludes with an evaluation of these results and some suggestions for further research.     

VERTICALLY INTEGRATED MEASURES OF THE RATE OF PROFIT IN THE UNITED STATES 1950–90

This paper investigates the importance of increases in the productivity of producing capital in estimates of the profit rate decline which occurred in the United States during the period 1950–90. We find that, when profit rate measures take into account the increasing productivity of producing capital stock (as measured by the embodied labor required to produce it), the observed decline is about one-half that found using conventional measures of profit. This finding has important implications for interest rate and investment policies.     

ESCAPING POVERTY THROUGH WORK: THE PROBLEM OF LOW EARNINGS CAPACITY IN THE UNITED STATES, 1973–88

This paper documents the changes in earnings capacity poverty that occurred between 1973 and 1088. Families are "Earnings Capacity Poor" if they are unable to generate enough income to lift them out of poverty, even if all working-age adults in the family work full-time, year-round. Data from the March 1974 and March 1989 Current Population Surveys indicate that earnings capacity poverty increased more rapidly than official poverty. Much of this increase can be attributed to the rise in earnings capacity poverty among whites, intact families, and family heads with more than a high school diploma. Most alarming, the percentage of children in earnings capacity poor families is considerably higher than it is among persons over eighteen; in 1988, nearly 15 percent of children under six lived in families that could not have escaped poverty even if the adults in their family were working and earning at their full capacity levels.     

ASSET POVERTY IN THE UNITED STATES, 1984–99: EVIDENCE FROM THE PANEL STUDY OF INCOME DYNAMICS

Using PSID data for the years 1984–99, we estimate the level and severity of asset poverty. We find that despite a sharp decline in the official poverty rate, the asset poverty rate barely budged over this period. Moreover, the severity of asset poverty increased during this period. The likelihood of being asset-poor decreased for those who are college graduates or married with children, whereas it increased for those who are white, for the unmarried elderly, and for those without a college degree. Lifetime events such as changes in job market, marital and homeownership status are correlated with transitions into and out of asset poverty.     

COMPARATIVE ESTIMATES OF THE VALUE OF HOUSEHOLD WORK IN THE UNITED STATES FOR 1976*

This paper uses five valuation methods to derive aggregate and per person estimates of the value of household work in the United States. Two general questions are posed: (1) what is the relationship between the aggregate estimates and the valuation method used, and (2) how do per person estimates vary by sex and earnings? The main observations of the paper are as follows: First, the aggregate value of household work is sizable regardless of the valuation method used. Second, aggregate estimates are extremely sensitive to the method of valuation. For example, the highest estimate is $475 billion greater than the lowest estimate. Third, contrary to earlier findings, opportunity cost valuation methods generally produce significantly higher estimates than market cost valuation methods. Fourth, per person estimates vary significantly by sex and level of earnings across valuation methods. Generally, market cost estimates.     

INFLATION INEQUALITY IN THE UNITED STATES

Different spending patterns across households and differences in price increases across goods and services lead to unequal levels of inflation faced by different households. In this paper we measure the degree of inequality in inflation across U.S. households for the period 1987–2000. The broad picture that emerges from our results is that over our whole sample period there are substantial differences in the inflation experiences across U.S. households. We find that the cost of living increases were generally higher for the elderly, in large part because of their health care expenditures, and that the cost of living of poor households is most sensitive to the, historically large, fluctuations in gasoline prices. Still, when looking at the whole population, we find that individual households that are confronted with high inflation in one year do not generally face high inflation in the subsequent year as well.     

THE VALUE OF SERVCES PROVDED BY THE STOCK OF GOVERNMENT-OWNED FIXED CAPTAL IN THE UNITED STATES, 1948–79

Expanded measures of government product normally include imputations for the services of government capital. This article discusses several approaches to measuring the value of the services of government capital and focuses on the conceptual and empirical difficultes associated with making such imputations. In addition, four sets of alternative estimates for 1948–79 are presented.     

THE STANDARD OF LIVING IN THE UNITED STATES

A common approach to the evaluation of the standard of living is based on a function of real income. In the United States this often takes the form of CPI-deflated mean household income. Material well-being is more appropriately evaluated using a consumption-based index. Using data from the Consumer Expenditure Surveys we find that real mean income provides an inaccurate representation of the level and trend of the standard of living relative to real per equivalent total expenditure in the postwar United States. The differences between real income and real total expenditure per household equivalent member are found at all levels of aggregation.     

COOPERATIVE RURAL ELECTRIFICATION IN THE UNITED STATES

A most impressive work has been accomplished during the past few years in the United States both by the Federal Authorities and by local bodies in the domain of electrification. Their example might advantageously be followed by the Governments bf many other countries. An essential part of this work is concerned with rural electrification, which presents a most original feature in the considerable rôle allocated to a new organ, the cooperative of rural electrification, whose establishment and operation are given every encouragement by the public authorities.
A very exhaustive and remarkably clear account of the whole system adopted, its practical realisation, and the extent of the work already achieved, has been published by the Pan American Union, Division of Agricultural Cooperation (Washington, D.C.), in its "Series on Cooperatives", No. 15. It is the work of Mr. Udo Rall. It will be of the greatest interest to the readers of the Annals of Collective Economy to have this masterly survey brought before them.
We desire to express our gratitude both to the Division of Agricultural Cooperation and to Mr. Udo Rall for their kindness in allowing us to reprint it.