A model of non-central production in a monocentric city

This paper develops a model of production outside the CBD in a monocentric city. The production process is a retail process, and consumers make costless circumferential shopping trips to retail producers. These producers use labor and building space to produce their output, and retail workers commute circumferentially to work at zero cost. The model is tested using detailed commercial data from several cities, and the tests do not fully support the model.     

Class diversification,economic growth and urban sprawl: evidences from a pre-crisis European city

Economic expansion indirectly promotes class diversification at the neighbourhood scale with a consequent reduction of social divides at the regional scale. To verify this working hypothesis, the present study investigates class diversification at both spatial scales in a Mediterranean city (Athens, Greece) using the European Socioeconomic Classification based on population census data referring to 1991–2001, a phase of economic expansion and intense urban sprawl preceding the 2004 Olympic games. Results of multivariate analysis and diversity indexes outline a local-scale social mix associated to suburban expansion, and regional-scale class segregation, reflecting an increasing polarization in affluent and economically deprived urban districts. The contrasting pattern at the two spatial scales results in a complex social geography with class diversification and moderate changes over time in the economic spatial divide between urban and neighbouring rural areas. These findings contribute to design scale-dependent policies reducing social inequalities and improving quality of life in urban areas. Future paths for socio-spatial processes were delineated for sprawling metropolitan regions under economic expansion and discussed in the light of future demographic trends in both developed and emerging countries.     

On revenue recycling and the welfare effects of second-best congestion pricing in a monocentric city

This paper examines congestion taxes in a monocentric city with pre-existing labor taxation. When road toll revenue is used to finance labor tax cuts, 35% of the optimal road tax in our numerical model does not reflect marginal external congestion costs, but rather functions as a Ramsey–Mirrlees tax, i.e. an efficiency enhancing mechanism allowing for an indirect spatial differentiation of the labor tax. This adds a quite different motivation to road pricing, since welfare gains can be produced even in absence of congestion. We find that the optimal road tax is non-monotonic across space, reflecting the different impacts of labor supply elasticity and marginal utility of income, which both vary over space. The relative efficiencies of some archetype second-best pricing schemes (cordon toll, flat kilometer tax) are high (84% and 70% respectively). When road toll revenue is recycled lump-sum, the optimal toll lies below its Pigouvian level. Extensions in a bimodal framework show that the optimality of using road toll revenue to subsidize public transport depends on the initial inefficiency in public transport pricing.     

Optimal density of radial major roads in a two-dimensional monocentric city with endogenous residential distribution and housing prices

This paper proposes an analytical urban system equilibrium model for optimizing the density of radial major roads in a two-dimensional monocentric city. The proposed model involves four types of agents: local authorities, property developers, households and household workers (i.e. commuters). The local authorities aim to maximize the total social welfare of the urban system by determining the optimal density of radial major roads in the city. The property developers seek to determine the intensity of their capital investment in the land market to maximize the net profit generated from the housing supply. The households choose residential locations that maximize their utility within a budget constraint, and the commuters choose the radial major roads that minimize their individual costs of travel between home and workplace. A heuristic solution procedure is developed to find the urban system equilibrium solution. A system optimum model is also proposed to optimize the density of radial major roads that maximizes the social welfare of the urban system. The proposed model can endogenously determine household residential distribution and land values across the city, along with the housing market structure in terms of housing prices and space. Numerical comparative static analyses of congestion pricing and road infrastructure investment (adding a new radial major road) are carried out together with evaluation of the effects of the service level of radial major roads, urban population size, and household income level on the urban economy.     

Transport subsidies, system choice, and urban sprawl

This paper analyzes the effect of transport subsidies on the spatial expansion of cities, asking whether such subsidies are a source of undesirable urban sprawl. Even though the cost-reducing effect of transport subsidies is offset by a higher general tax burden (which reduces the demand for space), the analysis shows that subsidies nevertheless lead to spatial expansion of cities. If the transport system exhibits constant returns to scale, the subsidies are inefficient, making the urban expansion they entail undesirable. The paper also studies transport “system choice,” with the city portrayed as selecting its transport system from along a continuum of money cost/time cost choices. The analysis shows that subsidies inefficiently bias choice in the direction of a high money cost/low time cost option. Lastly, the paper considers system choice in a city with rich and poor groups, showing that the rich favor a system with a high money cost and low time cost, but that their choice, if implemented, leads to a city whose spatial size is smaller than optimal. Thus, rich control of system choice does not lead to urban sprawl.     

The holdout problem, urban sprawl, and eminent domain

Developers attempting land assembly often face a potential holdout problem that raises the cost of development. To minimize this extra cost, developers will prefer land whose ownership is less dispersed. This creates a bias toward development at the urban fringe where average lot sizes are larger, resulting in urban sprawl. This paper examines the link between the holdout problem and urban sprawl and discusses possible remedies, including the use of eminent domain for urban redevelopment.     

Suburbanization and transportation in the monocentric model

This paper presents a version of the monocentric city model that incorporates heterogeneous commuting speeds by introducing radial commuting highways. This model implies that metropolitan area population spreads out along new highways, which are positively valued by residents. Simulations of conservative specifications of the model imply that each additional highway ray causes about a 10 percent decline in central city population. Given observed central population declines and urban highway construction between 1950 and 1990, this model implies that highways can account for an important part of urban population decentralization.     

北京土地价格空间分布特征——基于单中心城市的视角

为了解具有单中心城市牦最的北京市．土地价格空间分布特征,从理论上分析单中心城市土地价格的空间分布特征并提出相应假设,构建土地价格的Hedonic模型,利用北京2005—2013年住宅和办公用地微观交易价格数据进行假设的实证检验。结果显示：（1）北京住宅和办公用地的区位属性、物理属性和邻里属性对其价格有显著决定作用,且该决定作用随土地市场的成熟而逐渐增强;（2）北京住宅和办公用地价格与该区位到城市中心的距离负相关,而随时间推移,两类土地价格从城市中心向外的降低速度逐渐变快。     

An extension of the monocentric urban spatial equilibrium model to a multicenter setting: The case of the two-center city

Firms in a monocentric city conforming in substance to the “new urban economics” produce an export commodity under agglomeration economies and employ homogeneous labor and capital. Workers reside about the CBD in decreasing densities with distance. A developer establishes a second export production center within the city's residential area. Conditions for economic viability and growth of the subcenter are examined, and its impacts on short-run and long-run city location patterns are discussed. A limiting condition on subcenter employment size is provided.     

Land use externalities, open space preservation, and urban sprawl

Parcel data on residential land conversion are used to investigate how land use externalities influence the rate of development and modify policies designed to manage urban growth and preserve open space. Several “smart growth” policies are found to significantly influence land conversion, including a development clustering policy that concentrates development and generates preserved open space. In addition to directly affecting a parcel's hazard rate of conversion, this policy is found to affect neighboring parcels' conversion by generating a positive open space externality that hastens their development. The implication that the clustering policy could generate a more sprawled pattern of development is explored using spatial simulation.     

Suburbanization and transportation in the monocentric model

This paper presents a version of the monocentric city model that incorporates heterogeneous commuting speeds by introducing radial commuting highways. This model implies that metropolitan area population spreads out along new highways, which are positively valued by residents. Simulations of conservative specifications of the model imply that each additional highway ray causes about a 10 percent decline in central city population. Given observed central population declines and urban highway construction between 1950 and 1990, this model implies that highways can account for an important part of urban population decentralization.     

Household behavior under income uncertainty in a monocentric urban area

For a household living outside of but commuting to and from the CBD of an urban area and experiencing income uncertainty, housing consumption and location (distance from the CBD) are inversely related to the probability of unemployment and directly related to the level of unemployment compensation under fairly unrestrictive assumptions. Under more restrictive assumptions, it is found that these variables are inversely related to housing price and transportation costs. Finally, income compensation causes housing consumption and location to be directly related to the probability of unemployment and the level of unemployment compensation.     

Dynamics of urban sprawl and sustainable development in China

Compared with the rich literature on urban sprawl in Western cities, relatively little is known of the driving factors, processes, and future trends of urban sprawl in China. This research analyzes the socioeconomic forces behind two parts of urban sprawl in China: urban decentralization and urban renewal, and reveals two basic characteristics of Chinese urban sprawl: de-densification and expansion of urbanized areas. It uses the term “urban sprawl” to consider the reasons behind urban transformation on a regional level in China. This research begins with definitions of sprawl in Western and Eastern countries, and follows with a dynamic analysis of the social, political, and cultural aspects of sprawl. Three case studies focus on three urban regions in China: Beijing, Shanghai, and Guangzhou. This research provides a comprehensive definition of “urban sprawl” in China, identifies the patterns of urban sprawl and growth, and indicates possible alternative strategies for urban expansion. Finally, it offers suggestions on how to effectively control urban sprawl in China, and provides a pathway to achieving sustainable development.     

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绿色基础设施与城市蔓延控制

美国的绿色基础设施是保护土地资源和控制城市蔓延的开放空间网络,代表着一种较新的精明保护思想.在系统论述其概念原理、研究方法和实施管理途径的基础上,探讨了绿色基础设施理论对我国相关研究和保护规划的借鉴价值.     

Arbitrage,speculation and futures price fluctuations with boundedly rational and heterogeneous agents

This paper proposes a dynamic model for the futures market with three types of investors. The bounded rationality and heterogeneity of investors are taken into consideration. The equilibrium of the system and its stability conditions are derived with mathematical analysis. In the equilibrium, the futures price and the spot price converge to the equilibrium simultaneously. The equilibrium is determined by many factors, including the risk appetite and the rationality of investors, the trading costs, the arbitrage basis price and the fundamental price. When the stability conditions are violated, complex dynamics will emerge in the market. As shown by the simulations, the arbitrage is likely to destabilize the market. Moreover, when investors have the high degree of rationality, the equilibrium will become unstable and the futures market is inefficient. Statistical analysis indicates that the model can reproduce the stylized facts observed in the futures market, such as long memory, volatility clustering and fat tail of returns.

     

The holdout problem and urban sprawl: Experimental evidence

Conventional wisdom as well as economic theory suggests it is more costly to reassemble fragmented land due to transactions costs and strategic bargaining costs. Both costs are expected to increase with the number of sellers. Inefficient allocation of land resources may result including property entropy (Parisi, 2002), urban sprawl (Miceli and Sirmans, 2007) and deteriorating inner cities. Given the difficulty of observing actual values attached by buyers and sellers to land, little empirical evidence exists to support the conventional wisdom and theoretical work. We use experimental methods to examine transactions costs and strategic bargaining costs in a land-assembly market game with one buyer, 1-4 sellers, and complementary exchanges. The buyer’s final earnings vary inversely with the number of sellers, ceteris paribus, indicating an incentive to purchase consolidated land. Delay costs reduce holdout, but result in lower payoffs for both buyers and sellers. Competition between sellers reduces holdout and the buyer’s total purchase price.