Investment incentives and the demand for labor in U.S. regions

Most studies of federal investment incentives are limited to those policies' effects on capital formation. This paper departs from this tradition by examining the employment consequences, in general, and by industry and metropolitan area. In particular, it asks whether the accelerated depreciation allowance and investment tax credit: (1) generally displace more jobs (via the substitution effect) than they create (via the scale effect), (2) affect the overall employment situation in some metropolitan areas more than in others, and (3) help reallocate jobs across industries and metropolitan areas. Using data from Los Angeles and Philadelphia in two production models, the paper concludes that each of these outcomes is likely, though (2) depends on metropolitan areas' particular mixes of industries.     

京津冀都市区统计与当前城市统计的比较研究

近年来,随着京津冀地区城市化进程的快速推进,中心城区不断向外扩张,加上周边农村地区的发展,城乡之间的经济与社会联系加强,都市区逐渐形成并发展。对京津冀都市区发展状况进行分析,在此基础上将都市区统计和当前城市统计进行对比,发现都市区是人口和经济活动的主要聚集地,是真正具备城市功能的地域;都市区代表了区域内更高的产业结构和发展水平;都市区统计能够更好地反映城市化快速发展的状况。最后总结了中国建立规范的都市区统计制度的必要性和迫切性,并从都市区的视角提出了促进京津冀区域内产业协调发展和统筹城乡发展的策略建议。     

我国大都市区集聚与扩散的空间计量分析——基于空间面板数据

随着"疏散化"趋势的到来,我国大都市地区所呈现的集聚与扩散趋势逐渐明显。以我国128个大都市区为例,对其经济发展在空间上的集散特征进行空间自相关分析。全局莫兰指数表明,2000年至2017年我国大都市区经济发展整体上呈现显著的集聚特征,但是集聚程度呈现下降的趋势。从东中西和东北地区角度看,东部地区和东北地区均具有显著的扩散趋势,但是原因不同;中部大都市区的集聚程度具有下降的趋势;而西部大都市区具有显著集聚上升的趋势。空间计量分析结果表明,城市化率、人口规模和城镇居民人均可支配收入水平均对大都市区的经济增长率具有显著的空间正向关系,且居民人均收入水平对城市经济增长率的影响程度最大,大都市区之间经济发展的空间溢出效应较为显著,经济发展水平较高的大都市区辐射带动作用较强。最后,从顺应大都市区发展趋势、因地制宜制定城市发展规划以及合理分布人口规模和提高居民收入水平三个角度提出对策建议。     

Project 1990: educational planning at the metropolitan level

The fragmentation of metropolitan areas into large numbers of relatively small school districts has rendered long range educational planning highly unreliable when conducted at the district level. This article discusses a cooperative planning venture which was undertaken by the forty school districts in the Buffalo, New York metropolitan area. The planning organization is described and the general procedures for making student population projections, expenditure projections and revenue projections are reported. Although the article focuses on methodology, findings of general interest are reported including organizational alternatives which were generated. The project was financed with funds appropriated under Title III of the Elementary and Secondary Education Act.     

Localised Estimates of Dynamics of Multi‐dimensional Disadvantage: An Application of the Small Area Estimation Technique Using Australian Survey and Census Data

Deep and persistent disadvantage is an important, but statistically rare, phenomenon in the population, and sample sizes are usually not large enough to provide reliable estimates for disaggregated analysis. Survey samples are typically designed to produce estimates of population characteristics of planned areas. The sample sizes are calculated so that the survey estimator for each of the planned areas is of a desired level of precision. However, in many instances, estimators are required for areas of the population for which the survey providing the data was unplanned. Then, for areas with small sample sizes, direct estimation of population characteristics based only on the data available from the particular area tends to be unreliable. This has led to the development of a class of indirect estimators that make use of information from related areas through modelling. A model is used to link similar areas to enhance the estimation of unplanned areas; in other words, they borrow strength from the other areas. Doing so improves the precision of estimated characteristics in the small area, especially in areas with smaller sample sizes. Social science researchers have increasingly employed small area estimation to provide localised estimates of population characteristics from surveys. We explore how to extend this approach within the context of deep and persistent disadvantage in Australia. We find that because of the unique circumstances of the Australian population distribution, direct estimates of disadvantage have substantial variation, but by applying small area estimation, there are significant improvements in precision of estimates.     

Metropolitan density functions : A Further exploration

The application of mathematical functions to population density data within metropolitan areas has become a well-established analytical procedure. The more important functions that have been previously employed in this connection are reviewed, and two additional functional forms are suggested. The proposed functions, together with the earlier ones, are evaluated in terms of their ability to describe actual density patterns, as well as their accuracy in characterizing certain features of metropolitan spatial structure. The evaluation is undertaken in relation to two metropolitan areas of the United Kingdom. While these both possess certain distinctive features, they conform in many respects to metropolitan areas in other western nations.     

Land use regulation and new construction

This paper describes the relationship between land use regulation and residential construction. We characterize regulations as either adding explicit costs, uncertainty, or delays to the development process. The theoretical framework suggests that the effects on new construction vary by the type of regulation. Using quarterly data from a panel of 44 U.S. metropolitan areas between 1985 and 1996, we find that land use regulation lowers the level of the steady-state of new construction. Our estimates suggest that metropolitan areas with more extensive regulation can have up to 45 percent fewer starts and price elasticities that are more than 20 percent lower than those in less-regulated markets. One implication of regulations that lengthen the development process is that the short- and long-run effects of demand shocks will vary relative to conditions in markets without such delays. We find support for this observation in the data. As well, we find other differences by type of regulation: development or impact fees have relatively little impact on new construction, but regulations that lengthen the development process or otherwise constrain new development have larger and more significant effects.     

Estimation and recent behavior of urban population and employment density gradients

The monocentric model of urban structure predicts that urban population density declines with distance from the central business district. Using the negative exponential function to approximate the decline, Mills (E. S. Mills, “Studies in the Structure of the Urban Economy,” Johns Hopkins Press, Baltimore, Md. (1972)) estimated population and employment density gradients from 1948 to 1963 for a sample of 18 SMSAs. This paper updates Mills' estimates and examines recent patterns in population and employment suburbanization. The updated series estimated here is obtained using a “corrected” version of Mills' method. The original procedure incorporated a bias which Mills noted and later corrected (E. Mills and K. Ohta, in “Asia's New Giant” (Patrick and Rosovsky, Eds.), The Brookings Institution, Washington, D.C. (1976)). The comparability of the series begun by Mills and extended here is not interrupted, however, because, as Mills suspected, the bias is indeed small provided SMSA data are used. On the other hand, Urbanized Area definitions of metropolitan areas cause the original and corrected versions to yield significantly different results. This finding has implications for the appropriate choice of data for urban studies.     

Metropolitan patenting, inventor agglomeration and social networks: A tale of two effects

We investigate the separate effects on metropolitan patenting of inventor agglomeration and the structure of social networks linking inventors within and across metropolitan areas in the United States between 1977 and 2002. Using patent data we have been able to assign a metropolitan location to individual inventors, link inventors who have co-authored patents, and characterize the structural features of the networks linking inventors. Our main question concerns the relative importance of salient features of the social networks linking inventors on metropolitan patenting productivity. We find that agglomerative features of metropolitan areas are more important determinants of metropolitan patenting productivity than structural feature of the inventive networks. While the aggregation of isolated inventors correlates positively with patenting productivity, density of connections correlates negatively.     

Measuring Urban Well-Being

A BSTRACT . Studies attempting to measure social well-being that focus attention at national levels fail to provide insights into the actual conditions that are present at subnational levels. With increased attention being focused on the conditions of urban areas, the need for subnational evaluation is becoming more apparent. The growing diversity of the population and the increase in female-headed households leave researchers without resources for evaluating the conditions of these groups in smaller regional settings, in part due to the scarcity of well-being measurements at these levels. This study hopes to fill in the gap for measuring well-being at subnational levels by estimating indexes at the county level. Exactly how the level of urbanization and social well-being are related is the subject of our inquiry. Our estimations will focus on urban counties, with particular emphasis on the 50 largest counties. We aim to evaluate the well-being of the general population in metropolitan areas, comparing it to those for female heads of households and people of color.     

Spatial distribution of the specialization of arts

The hypothesis is that the major source of concentration of arts in different regions is due to agglomeration effects of specialized talents, city size, income, and quality of life. Twenty-nine large metropolitan areas are ranked and assessed for enhancing the climate for arts activity. Data on metropolitan areas in the United States on cost of living, transportation, employment, education, climate, crime, health care, recreation, city size, and per capita income are used as explanations for predominance of art in the 29 metropolitan areas. The results indicate that cities with larger populations and higher per capita income have greater concentrations of artistic activity. Other explanatory variables include factors associated with the quality of life. (JEL RIO, R23)     

INTERFUEL SUBSTITUTION: A META‐ANALYSIS

Abstract This paper provides the first meta‐analysis of the interfuel substitutability literature. The sample includes 47 studies of interfuel substitution in the industrial sector, in manufacturing industry or manufacturing sub‐industries, or in the macro‐economy of a variety of developed and developing countries. Meta‐regressions are estimated for the six shadow elasticities of substitution between coal, oil, gas and electricity. I find that at the level of the industrial sector as a whole the oil–coal, oil–gas, oil–electricity and gas–electricity shadow elasticities of substitution are significantly greater than unity. The remaining elasticities – between coal and gas and coal and electricity – are insignificantly different from unity or zero due to their large standard errors. Substitution possibilities seem more constrained at the macro level and less constrained at lower levels of aggregation. Estimates of the elasticities of substitution from cross‐section regressions are generally largest whereas fixed effects panel estimates are intermediate in magnitude, and time‐series estimates are mostly much smaller. In order to obtain more precise and less biased estimates of long‐run elasticities of substitution, there is a need for additional primary studies using large samples and/or the between estimator which econometric research suggests is likely to provide the best estimates of long‐run elasticities.     

中外都市圈建设的优势、经验——其对济南都市圈发展的借鉴与启示

首先对都市圈发展阶段进行分析,总结都市圈建设基本原则,在借鉴国外都市圈成功经验和失败教训,国内都市圈特别是发展相对成熟的长江三角洲、珠江三角洲和京津冀三大都市圈的优势和经验总结基础上,针对济南都市圈发展阶段提出发展借鉴与启示.     

The Structure of Sprawl: Identifying and Characterizing Employment Centers in Polycentric Metropolitan Areas

This paper applies a consistent framework to four comparably sized metropolitan areas to identify and characterize their employment centers. Employment centers are identified as places that exceed a threshold employment density and a threshold employment level. They are also characterized as specializing on the basis of location quotient analysis. We find clear evidence of specialization in every employment center in the four metropolitan areas studied. Our interpretation is that what we are observing is a systematic change in metropolitan structure rather than a random sprawling of firms. We also find some evidence that the size distribution of employment centers follows the rank-size rule. This suggests that there is structure not only in the distribution of economic activity among the employment centers but also in their size distribution. Because less than 50 percent of metropolitan employment is within employment centers, future research should focus on understanding the more diffuse employment patterns. The rank-size rule gives some guidance as to the expected size distribution of employment throughout the metropolitan area.     

UNDERSTANDING ENVIRONMENTAL RESPONSIBILITY OF CITIES AND EMISSIONS EMBODIED IN TRADE

The attribution of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions embedded in interregionally traded products to either production or consumption regions is a key issue to the understanding of the global environmental responsibility of metropolitan areas. In this paper we identify GHG emissions for which metropolitan areas assume responsibility by allocating emissions embodied in import and export products to regions of either consumption or production in the cases of three US metropolitan areas. The case studies show that embodied emissions in both export and import products accounted for 63–73% of total GHG emissions directly and indirectly pertaining to these metropolitan economies. These findings suggest that an accounting method that incorporates emissions embodied in product trade has relevance to the development of local policies that govern actions ranging from redirecting metropolitan development patterns toward low carbon emissions to promoting sustainable consumption behavior, particularly those involving the collaboration of cities.     

都市圈空间结构组织与范围划分研究——以兰州都市圈为例

以兰州都市圈为例,对都市圈范围划分和空间组织问题进行了较深入的分析.首先,分析了日常都市圈范围划分的依据与兰州都市圈规划范围的确定;接着,对兰州都市圈的结构特点与兰州都市圈的基本范围划分进行了分析,同时讨论了标准都市圈范围划分的重要性与原则方法,探索了都市圈规划与管理统计中关于范围问题的解决途径.     

德国大都市区结构的特征与发展趋势

首先简要界定了多中心都市区的概念.从国家层面分析了德国大都市区的空间结构特征及其发展变化,阐述了联邦政府引导大都市区发展的具体政策和建议,并以莱茵鲁尔和柏林为例,从城市区域层面具体说明了德国大都市区的特点、问题和发展战略.     

Intra-metropolitan shifts in labor demand and the adjustment of local markets

I offer new evidence on the adjustment of local labor markets to geographic shifts in labor demand within US metropolitan areas using a unique data set in which metropolitan subregions are geographically matched across the 1970–1980 and 1980–1990 decades. The evidence uncovered paints the following picture. Workers, especially those with less education, make incomplete adjustments within metropolitan areas in response to intra-metropolitan demand shifts. Although blacks may not make especially limited adjustments, they have disproportionately suffered deleterious effects from job movements because the demand shifts have tended to be away from their places of residence.     

Production with land and nonland factors: Which functional form?

Recent literature has investigated alternative CES and VES specifications for the production of building services with land and nonland inputs. The evidence presented here is consistent with a wide range of functional forms; the Cobb-Douglas form cannot be rejected but neither is it strongly supported. These findings are not inconsistent with previous estimates which are likely to be biased by errors-in-variables. Furthermore, the results reported here parallel findings from the literature on the substitution of labor for capital. Since data are not as readily available as in the labor-capital context, one must be pessimistic about the prospects for definitive empirical work.