A Multi-Agent View of Strategic Planning Using Group Support Systems and Artificial Intelligence

The strategic planning process is dynamic and complex. Including a Group Support System (GSS) in the problem-solving process can improve the content quality of the strategic plan by allowing increased participation by more members of the organization. However, it can also add to the complexity of the problem by increasing the quantity of textual information that can result from group activity. Added complexity increases cognitive overload and frustrations of those participants negotiating the contents of the strategic plan. This article takes a multi-agent view of the strategic planning process. It considers group participants as multiple agents concerned with the content quality of the strategic plan. The facilitator agent is responsible for guiding groups in the strategic plan construction process as well as for solving process problems such as cognitive overload. We introduce an AI Concept Categorizer agent, a software tool that supports the facilitator in addressing the process problem of cognitive overload associated with convergent group activities by synthesizing group textual output into conceptual clusters. The implementation of this tool reduces frustrations which groups encounter in the process of classifying textual output and provides more time for discussion of the concepts themselves. Because of the large amount of convergent activity necessary for strategic planning, the addition of the AI Concept Categorizer to the strategic planning process should increase the quality of the strategic plan and the buy-in of the participants in the strategic planning process.     

Analyzing price and product strategies with a comprehensive system dynamics model—A case study from the capital goods industry

Price reductions and/or product enhancements are widely seen as appropriate ways to increase market share. However, the key findings of this analysis demonstrate the opposite: decreases in price combined with product enhancements can lead to substantial loss in sales revenue and, ultimately, profit. The discussion draws on findings from a comprehensive system dynamics model, which has been developed in a major company in the capital goods industry. The purpose of this research is to analyze the price and product strategies in the capital goods industry. In the case company, testing intuitive beliefs with the help of a formal system dynamics model proved to be beneficial in the strategic decision-making process. The model had a significant impact on the case company, especially when challenging basic assumptions about mechanisms of markets and competition.     

Ethical Decision Making: A Comparison of Computer- Supported and Face-to-face Group

This study compares computer-supported groups, i.e., groups using group support systems (GSS), and face-to-face groups using ethical decision-making tasks. A laboratory experiment was conducted using five-person groups of information systems professionals. Face-to-face (FTF) and GSS groups were compared in terms of their decision outcomes and group members' reactions. The results revealed that computer-supported and face-to-face groups showed no significant difference in terms of the decision outcomes of choice shift and decision polarity. However, FTF groups reached their decisions more quickly and they were more successful in attaining group consensus than GSS groups. Subjects evaluated face-to-face communication more favorably than GSS interaction on most post-group measures related to perceived group processes and satisfaction. Despite these outcomes, some possibilities for using GSS technology in an ethical decision making context are examined.     

Brand equity heterogeneity among strategic groups in service franchising

Independent franchisees work cooperatively with service franchisors to strengthen the franchisor's brand name. However, agency theory predicts that franchisor inputs such as brand names and operational routines might be harmed by franchisees' free riding. In addition, previous literature has addressed the issues of strategic group emergence and performance differences between groups in recent decades. Thus, this study builds upon an emerging symbiotic view of franchising behind agency theory and incorporates a strategic groups level of analysis to investigate whether franchisees have strong incentives to maintain standards as franchisor seeking market penetration. By investigating potential brand equity differences among service franchisors for Taiwanese telecommunications service chains, this study found that different strategic groups exist in service franchising chains. From replication testing, the current results demonstrate that service franchising brand equity heterogeneities exist among franchisors within and across strategic groups. Therefore, this study broadens agency theory's explanation of service franchising.     

The Design of GSS-Enabled Interventions: A Habermasian Perspective

This article frames GSS-enabled interventions as electronically supported discourses, designed and evaluated against a gold standard of ideal speech in a perfect communication environment. The objectives are, firstly, to develop a model of GSS-enabled interventions based on Habermas' theory of communicative action, and secondly, to apply the model as a problem-structuring device to the conceptual problem of designing the strategic evaluation of a comprehensive urban plan. The model, known as the VC (validity claims) Model, provides separate evaluative criteria for personal, social and technical aspects. The criteria for successful GSS-enabled interventions may be summarized as personal commitment (validated by personal truthfulness or sincerity), to a social consensus (validated by rightness), for informed action (validated by objective truth). Detailed criteria (viz., goal, strategy, procedure, issues, problems) are developed for each type of validity claim and matched to the technologies available. The result is a detailed brief illustrating the design of a GSS-enabled strategic urban planning intervention, including a sample agenda for the GSS-supported meeting and the GSS tools that will be employed.     

Aligning supply chain design for boosting resilience

Many researchers have analyzed the effect of disruptive events, such as natural disasters and economic and market forces, on global supply chains. However, there is a lack of consensus on delineating a universal collection of supply chain risk management practices that will help companies operate in a global market with large-scale disruptions. In this article, we present an analysis, in conjunction with a worldwide online survey, based on successful global brands and their supply chains. We propose a framework that deploys the dynamics of building supply chain resilience, first linking the design of the supply chain portfolio (local versus global scope, as well as strategic responsiveness versus cost reduction) with supply chain vulnerabilities (external versus internal). We describe the transition between different supply chain structures as a way of coping with disruptions and thus proactively developing resilience. In this article, we introduce both a supply chain risk management approach and the reactive-by-deployment mode, as illustrated by successful global company examples.     

以前瞻性技术预见等战略分析工具支撑关键核心技术的战略突破：集成电路领域案例

本文深入分析了国际半导体技术发展路线图（ITRS）在引领全球集成电路产业创新发展中的成功经验,旨在回答如何实现技术预见与产业战略发展和支撑政策制定过程深度融合,发挥技术预见等工具在不断修正对长期性、战略性领域未来发展趋势认识和支撑关键领域突破创新实践上的作用。在此基础上,对我国技术预见与前瞻性技术战略布局、政策制定的趋势发展提出三个思考：一是如何在国家产业技术创新政策决策过程提升战略与系统思维;二是有效整合技术预见与其他决策咨询工具支撑政策全过程;三是以技术预见为核心,构建政府产业技术创新决策咨询分布式网络体系。     

The Evolution of Certainty in a Small Decision-Making Group by Consensus

We propose a dynamical systems model for approximating the certainty as a function of communication. Uncertainty is measured during a small group decision-making process, in which participants aim to reach consensus. Assuming that the communication is a one-dimensional continuum variable, both first- and second-order differential models of certainty are analyzed, and then, the general model is obtained by superposition. An experiment was organized, and the data have been used to test the model. A detailed discussion on the assumptions of this approach from the decision theory point of view is also included.     

Modeling strategic group dynamics: A hidden Markov approach

With competition playing a critical role in market-based strategic planning and implementation, identifying and understanding competiton and competitive dynamics has become critical. In this vein, the strategic groups perspective has emerged as a powerful means to understand such competitive phenomena. Empirical approaches to model competitive dynamics within the strategic groups framework, however, have been piece meal as researchers typically resort to distinct sequential analysis by time period. To overcome the limitations of these simplistic approaches, we develop a hidden Markov model to study strategic group (competitive) dynamics. In this approach, we explicitly account for competitive dynamics over time by modeling strategic group memberships as latent states that follow a first-order Markov process. Thus, we explictly model the notion that firms adopt their strategy for the next time period based on their current strategy and respective outcomes. We illustrate the model with longitudinal data from COMPUSTAT on 63 public banks from the tri-state region of NY-OH-PA. The results show the proposed model to be superior to a number of viable alternative approaches that have been suggested in the literature. We find the existence of three strategic groups: the leveraged group has low current assets compared to current liabilities, high debt to equity, and high total borrowing to assets. The lending group consists of the largest banks that focus on lending with high ratios of gross loans to securities and gross loans to deposits. The balanced group has the largest number of banks where the values of the financial and product ratios are intermediate compared to the leveraged and lending groups. The asymmetries in the switching probabilites are also evident as there seems to be a higher probability of switching into the balanced group than switching out of this group. The switching probabilites are symmetric between the the leveraged and lending groups.     

The Role of the DS/AHP in Identifying Inter-Group Alliances and Majority Rule Within Group Decision Making

DS/AHP is a nascent method of multi-criteria decision-making, based on the Dempster-Shafer theory of evidence and indirectly the Analytic Hierarchy Process. It is concerned with the identification of the levels of preference that decision makers have towards certain decision alternatives (DAs), through preference judgements made over a number of different criteria. The working result from a DS/AHP analysis is the body of evidence (BOE), which includes a series of mass values that represent the exact beliefs in the best DA(s) existing within certain subsets of DAs. This paper considers the role of DS/AHP as an aid to group decision-making, through the utilisation of a distance measure (between BOEs). Here, the distance measure enables the identification of the members of the decision-making group who are in most agreement, with respect to the judgements they have individually made. The utilisation of a single linkage dendrite approach to clustering elucidates an appropriate order to the aggregation of the judgements of the group members. This develops the DS/AHP method as a tool to identify inter-group alliances, as well as introduce a ‘majority rule’ approach to decision-making through consensus building.     

Evaluating Facilitated Modelling Processes and Outcomes: An Experiment Comparing a Single and a Multimethod Approach in Group Model Building

Facilitated modelling approaches have been suggested as helpful tools to support negotiation in strategic analysis processes due to their potential to facilitate cognitive change and enhance consensus and commitment with final decisions. In the present research, we developed an experimental framework to compare what two of these approaches, that is, group model building and a multimethod approach, contribute to the process and outcomes in the negotiation of strategies. In the multimethod approach, we combined strategic options development and analysis with computer simulations of the group model building approach. We explored the differences between these two modelling approaches in facilitating cognitive change, consensus and commitment by building an experimental research design with real clients, working on their organisation’s problem. Furthermore, we compared the type and content of participants’ contributions in the strategic conversation. The lessons from the experiment conducted are twofold. On one hand, the multimethod approach encouraged more divergent contributions and produced a higher degree of cognitive change than group model building (i.e., the single approach). On the other hand, group model building encouraged more contributions about content related to causes of the problem and enhanced more commitment to the final solution than the multimethod approach. Hence, the conducted experiment brings new insights into the benefits of using multimethods and possible losses resulting from such combinations. Accordingly, we have presented opportunities for further research regarding the combination of facilitated modelling approaches.     

Effect of Business Group Affiliation on Firm Internationalization: The Case of India Under Reforms

The authors investigate how diversified business groups influence the structural reform–firm strategy relations given its effect on strategic choice and its implementation in a large emerging economy: India. By integrating business group, industrial organization, and international business literature, the authors predict considerable differences in the exporting behavior of business group–affiliated firms on the basis of their market competitiveness and governance dynamics. The authors test their predictions empirically with longitudinal data of 6,119 Indian firms over a 21-year period starting from 1991–1992 to 2011–2012 and find support for most of the hypotheses. These findings suggest that knowledge of the heterogeneity within business groups are essential for understanding the response of business group affiliates in light of the progression of reform process in India. This study thus contributes to a more complete conceptual understanding of the strategic responses of promarket reforms of business group affiliates in emerging economies.     

Aggregation and Disaggregation of Preferences for Collective Decision-Making

Group decisions are of longstanding interest to researchers from a wide spectrum of disciplines. Group Decision Support Systems (GDSS) can play a vital role in situations where multiple persons are involved, each having their own private perceptions of the context and the decision problem to be tackled. In such an environment the conflict between the members of the planning group is not an unusual situation. Multiple criteria decision aid (MCDA) methods may be a useful tool in coping with such interpersonal conflicts where the aim is to achieve consensus between the group members. This paper combines two well-known multicriteria methods, based on the notion of aggregation of preferences, in order to construct a consensus seeking methodology for collective decision-making.     

A conceptual framework of anonymity in Group Support Systems

As the development and use of automated systems for collaborative work grows, the need for a better understanding of these systems becomes more important. Our focus is on one type of system, a Group Support System (GSS) and, in particular, on one important aspect of a GSS—anonymity. A conceptual framework for the study of anonymity in a GSS is presented, which describes the general classes of variables and their relationships. These variables include the factors that influence anonymity in a GSS, types of anonymity, and the effects of anonymity on a message sender, receiver, group process, and outcome. Each of these variables is discussed with working propositions presented for important group process and outcome measures. The objectives of this article are to highlight the importance and complexity of anonymity, to act as a guide for empirical investigations of anonymity, and to influence future GSS development and use.     

Using and Influence Level of Information to Explain the Non-consensus Process Loss

Much of the Group Support System (GSS) literature comparing GSS groups with manual groups has produced contrarian results. One of the more confusing is that GSS groups have a higher level of non-consensus than manual groups. Lack of consensus in GSS groups is considered to be a negative aspect of GSS. This paper argues that low levels of consensus are not necessarily harmful and should be expected given the assumptions about GSSs. This study uses an alternate measure to compare face-to-face groups with GSS groups; an influence level of information. Experimental results using an influence level of information show no difference between face-to-face group members and GSS group members. We discuss these implications, as well as additional directions for further consensus research.     

Agency controls and subsidiary strategic initiatives: The mediating role of subsidiary autonomy

Prior studies examining the impact of organizational controls on subsidiaries’ strategic initiatives have to a large extent failed to find a significant direct association between the two. We argue that this lack of direct association may be due to the fact that the control mechanisms used exert their influence on subsidiaries’ strategic initiatives indirectly by suppressing subsidiaries’ decision-making autonomy. Drawing upon agency theory we consider the effects of two types of controls, monitoring and incentive alignment, as mediated by subsidiaries’ decision-making autonomy. We test this effect on data from 115 subsidiaries of foreign multinationals operating in Greece. The results of our analyses empirically validate this assertion for both mechanisms. Our findings further show that, when both mechanisms are present, one may accentuate the effect of the other, highlighting the value of employing a contingency approach to fully capture the effects of organizational controls on the pursuit of subsidiaries’ strategic initiatives.     

Excessive risk exposure: A question of ethical decision-making

This commentary essay reflects on the article titled “When an irresistible force meets an immovable object: The interplay of agency and structure in the UK financial crisis” (Ashby et al., this issue). Specifically, managers took on excessive risk that ultimately contributed to financial crisis. This essay discusses whether the decision to accept excessive risk falls under ethical decision-making, including the degree of moral intensity as possibly perceived by risk and financial managers. The components for determining moral intensity include (1) magnitude of consequences, (2) social consensus, (3) probability of effect, (4) temporal immediacy, (5) proximity, and (6) concentration of effect.     

Monte Carlo Simulation Techniques in a Decision Support System for Group Decision Making

This paper describes a group decision support system based on an additive multi-attribute utility model for identifying a consensus strategy in group decision-making problems where several decision-makers or groups of decision-makers elicit their own preferences separately. On the one hand, the system provides procedures to quantify the DMs or group of DMs preferences separately. This involves assessing the DMs or group of DMs component utilities that represent their preferences regarding the respective possible attribute values and objective weights that represent the relative importance of the criteria. On the other hand, we propose Monte Carlo simulation techniques for identifying a consensus strategy. An iterative process will be carried out, where, after the simulations have been performed, the imprecise component utilities and weights corresponding to the different DMs or groups of DMs are tightened to output more meaningful information in the next simulations to achieve a consensus strategy. Finally, an application to the evaluation of remedial strategies for restoring contaminated aquatic ecosystems illustrates the usefulness and flexibility of this decision support tool.     

经理人“羊群行为”对企业定价策略的影响

从经理人"羊群行为"(herd behavior)的角度出发,分析在制定决策过程中经理人行为之间的相互影响,认为经理人在制定企业的战略决策过程中会出现一定的趋同现象,在定价策略方面体现为价格的同涨同跌,并且涨跌的幅度近似。